Cost of rebuilding the Ukraine

This from the Economist:

Researchers from the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a network of economists, put the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine in the region of €200bn-500bn ($220bn-540bn), roughly in line with the government’s own calculations. The way in which reconstruction happens, and the reforms that accompany it, will be just as important as the money spent. Done well, it could transform an economy that was once captured by oligarchic interests into something more open and dynamic.

Working out the hit to the Ukrainian economy from war is a difficult business. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), a think-tank, reckons that the affected regions together make up about 29% of Ukrainian output. Electricity consumption, a proxy for activity, is down by around a third compared with a year ago. According to a survey by the central bank, 30% of firms around the country have stopped producing entirely and another 45% have reduced their output. The World Bank reckons that GDP will contract by 45% this year.

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So call it $400 billion. With a population of 44 million Ukrainians……that’s almost $10000 for every man, woman and child in the Ukraine. Even by Western standards that’s a huge tax on those poor people.

Mozart

Thanks for the above calculation though - a huge pity that the country has been damaged badly by a war that could have been avoided if there were proper negotiations prior to the start of it.   The population figure of 44 million is a guess and  the real population are in those areas under Ukraine Government control - which is circa 37 million.  There is no charge that the Ukraine would ever regain control of the Crimea as well as the Donbas Region the Ukraine Government lost in 2015.      

Ukraine has a major problem and that is not only the oligarchs you refer to  but also extreme levels of bribery and corruption.   Without that being changed  the chances of rebuilding would be near to zero.

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Ukraine is corrupt but they have a Democratically elected leader, so they want to try to move forward. 
Putin on the other hand changed the constitution so he can remain in power for life. Anyone who does this puts their own needs over the country. 

The only people that like Putin are the far-right religious peasants. He is their master. 

Let's not stuff around, we all know that Putin is a murderous dictator who has wiped out all opposition. It's a miracle that Navalty is still alive in prison but for as long as Putin is in power that poor man will remain in silence behind bars.

SB -  Please check your facts - you are just repeating cp on site.   

The Russian Constitution  limiting presidential terms to two 2 consecutive  terms have not been changed  at all -  The only thing the Russian Parliament did was to decide  to allow Putin as a special case to serve instead of one - two more terms.   

I am not supporting him - but would advise you seriously  not to believe whatever the fake media comes up with and to check out the real situation.    The other part is that the parties supporting Putin only got 48%  of the vote in the last Duma election - but because of division amongst opposition parties the Putin supporting parties won too many extra seats.   By the way - the second strongest party in Russia is the Communist  Party - you obviously want them in power instead.           

LOL love the way the Putin apologists keep bringing up how corrupt Ukraine is and never mention the fact that Russia is rated even worse than Ukraine.

Or they say "I'm not supporting Putin BUT"  they then list or use the exact same arguments Putin is using to justify the war.

I wonder what would happen if they conclusively prove that chemical weapons have now been used by Russia....as has been the latest accusation from Ukraine.

The W est has previously stated that if this did happen, they would respond something along the lines of, "with equal measure"....

Given that any escalation from the West could or would start a nuclear war..... I wonder what line there is that needs to be crossed by Russia, for most of the average people in the street to say, enough is enough, the West must now respond.

For a lot of people, that line seems to move further away, the closer it gets to becoming a nuclear war

My guess is it would be more like Obama’s line in the sand in Syria. The West always hopes time solves these things, that countries reign in the radical leader. But going back to Hitler there’s no conclusive evidence this happens. Perhaps China after Mao had a period of moderation, but that’s reversed again.

So it’s a failed policy in the main, but maybe still better than the alternative. The West’s main weapon is economic power….and countries like China and Russia should have to somewhat comply with Western norms to be given membership.

By contrast we have welcomed the bad actors and actually helped them build their economies. Companies were very culpable, but there was no Western government policy or leadership that would have given CEOs air cover to select the second lowest cost supplier,

"The Wests goal here should be to stop Putin winning in Ukraine. I'm not suggesting they get directly involved in the fighting themselves or threaten to attack Russia itself but by giving the Ukrainians however much military aid they need to stop Russia's upcoming offensive in the east of Ukraine and even the means for them to able to retake the Donbass from the separatists if possible"

I fully agree with you, but I do often wonder what that threshold would be, to pre-empt a Western involvement or actual offensive against Russia.

I don't want to ever see that happen, I genuinely don't.....but at the same time, when it doesn't happen, it does seem to make Putin so much more bolder with what he does...... and I just wonder.... what that final straw would have to be, to break the West's back / resolve.... and jump in

"So it’s a failed policy in the main, but maybe still better than the alternative"

Yep, I can't disagree with you Moz

I do think for the EU and the likes of Germany if chemical weapons have been proven to be used the threshold would be reached for a full energy embargo however damaging it us to Europe economically. An end to all purchases of oil, gas and coal from Russia. NATO may also start supplying more modern heavy weapons to the Ukrainians, instead of the light man portable weapons they are giving them along with older Soviet era hardware currently .

I think for actual western military involvement to occur, their would have to be conclusive evidence of genocide (not war crimes, there is a difference), nuclear weapons used against Ukraine or large scale use of chemical weapons against civilians.

Stav

I wish that people refrain from making false statements on site like SB claiming that Putin  has changed the constitution of Russia - while there was no such change to the Russian Constitution was made.     That does not make me into a Russian apologist  - it just makes me wonder why people lie about things and I merely tried to correct the story to facts.   Whether I agree with the Russian Parliament - the Duma - is not the issue - fact I think it was a wrong decision of .theirs.    I merely put the matter as it is on site.   

But then one can come up with lies based on newspaper propaganda  and whether it is factual or not has no bearing on the issue.     All I can say Blah-blah-blah BS - you said  when dealing with issues you could not contest.    

I think the situation is that what people write on site is the same as what happened when a school kid asked the leader of the French Greens Party to indicate on a map of Europe  where the Baltic States are on a map  and did not knw the answer.     It cost him dearly in the first round of the French Presidential election.     That is why I will just ignore the BS and state that I do not support the Russian Invasion - but to make false statements on site is the norm and not the exception.   

I made a plain statement obtained from the BRICS countries that their should have  been proper negotiation to solve real problems in Ukraine.- but there was none and the invasion was inevitable.   Merely going to Wikipedia - not a real independent source  at all - when it comes to statements made on site the situation is mentioned - but then played down.    

I blame the corrupt  US President for the situation caused by his incompetence.    The real international catastrophe has caused made the world into an unsafe and unstable place.  The whole top structure of the US government has been corrupted and corruption involved kickbacks from Ukraine, Russia, Iran and China.   I made a statement that the Ukraine will not be able to rebuild  and then it is acknowledged by some that corruption in Ukraine is indeed a problem - but it is even a greater problem  when the US Government is equally if not more so corrupt as well.     

Fact is when Trump was president the invasion would never have  taken place anyway - whether you like it or not.      

I don't support Putin, I just support his policies in Russia, and more recently also in Ukraine. 
I hate Nazi's, especially Jewish Nazi's like Zelenski....
(Imagine living in a world  like the above, where everything is upside down)

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I saw Putin on TV and he said he needs to remove the Ukranian Democratic government because they are Nazis like Europe.

SB

You have written BS above about the constitution of Russia and when I tried to correct me you accuse e of supporting Putin.   Please keep to facts  on issues and stop your garbage on site.   Newspaper reports are making things worse.   This story about chemical warfare will never be raised  by the USA or any other state for that matter.    The USA ran bio-labs in Ukraine and if there is an escape of produce from those labs it should be blamed on the USA - nobody else.

The real problem in Ukraine is not Nazism - even though it is present and even used by elements in the Ukraine Government.     the problem relates entirely to the Government attacks on ethnic Russians living in Ukraine and the situation that arose from the US funded coup in Ukraine and the civil war that followed the coup.   

Stav ducked and dived  when I mentioned the language problem and  you did not even know it  existed.    The civil war caused  around 18 000 deaths in Eastern Ukraine thus far and attacks by the Ukraine army on Russian speaking people accounted for most of the deaths.    When that is ignored in the media propaganda it is ignored by you as well.  

The fact is that  the Russian Army had the only object and that is to protect Russians  in Ukraine that is being oppressed by the  present Ukraine Government.    The land army has not moved into areas where Ukrainian speaking people make up the majority of the population - even if maps provided by the media is studied.   There never was an object to remove the so-called Democratic Government in Ukraine.     The last  democratic elections were held in Ukraine in 2013 - since then there were no elections held in Eastern Ukraine and still some Russian speaking moderates elected to the Ukraine Parliament.  They have been arrested  before the invasion started - even though they voted with the Ukraine Government condemning a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia before it happened - and all opposition parties have been  banned in Ukraine.   Do you call that a Democracy?   

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• Art, Painting

Dumb Mike used to paraphrase Foxx News, but now RT has become the definitive sources of facts...He went on holiday and saw the sights in Russia, and now thinks he is an expert. He has never lived in Russia, or even in an overseas country. Much different than a holiday

 Oom Maaik is 'n legend!!!

It is amazing how DumbMike thinks Europe and America are such corrupt places, but the facts are they are less corrupt than authoritarian countries- and people are have more freedom and are richer. 

"and people are have more freedom and are richer. "

Complacency is a bitch and will be the West's undoing...it's becoming more corrupt than it used to be, eating away at the accumulated wealth... while some sh!t-hole countries are cleaning up their acts and are moving in the right direction....just a matter of time.

But he also used to think the ANC was great….seriously confused. Anybody recognize the artist? This is like recognizing Cy Twombly’s scribbles…a signature feature.

"Anybody recognize the artist? "

There's no beer bottles in the pic, so no...not big on art these days.