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Hard-Won Unity: Polls Show Russian Invasion Is Transforming Ukrainian Self-Identity
August 23, 2022 19:26 GMT
Ukrainian soldiers take part in National Flag Day celebrations in Kyiv on August 23.
Ahead of Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24 and six months after
Russia launched its large-scale invasion of the country, opinion polls
indicate growing unity on key issues among Ukrainians and a widespread
unwillingness to make any territorial concessions to Moscow.
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“Ukrainians are united like never before, but it’s a hard-won unity”
Anton Hrushetskiy, deputy director of the Kyiv International Institute
of Sociology (KIIS), told RFE/RL.
According to a poll conducted by KIIS in July, a historic 85 percent of
Ukrainians identify themselves above all as citizens of Ukraine, as
opposed to residents of their region, representatives of an ethnic
minority, or some other identifier.
This so-called indicator of civil identity, regarded as a crucial
mark of cohesion in a historically diverse and divided Ukrainian
society, was 64.4 percent only half a year ago.
“The ideas that there is no such thing as the Ukrainian nation, and that
the Ukrainian state is a failed state were crucial to Russian
propaganda,” Hrushetskiy said. “Nothing could have had such a unifying
effect as the war waged by Putin and his cynical justification of it.”
Research shows similar spikes can be observed in views on other crucial matters.
As many as 96 percent of Ukrainians support their country joining the
European Union, and 91 percent now favor joining NATO. Some 92 percent
profess a “bad” attitude toward Russia, while only 2 percent declare a
“good” one.
Hrushetskiy believes these changes will prove enduring because unity
around them has been developing gradually since Ukraine gained
independence from Soviet rule in 1991. A significant increase in support
for the pro-European and transatlantic geopolitical orientation of the
country -- and a corresponding decline of positive sentiment toward
Russia – were notable features of the 2004-05 Orange Revolution and the
2014 Revolution of Dignity, he noted.
Six months after Moscow's failed assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian armed
forces and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy enjoy the record-high
confidence of society.
Polls show that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has the trust of well over three-quarters of the population.
According to a poll conducted by KIIS and the National Democratic
Institute (NDI), as many as 97 percent of Ukrainians trust or completely
trust the former, and 85 percent trust or completely trust the latter.
Hrushetskiy notes that Ukrainian society is experiencing a well-known,
rally-around-the-flag effect. Research on political preferences shows
that a distinct majority of Ukrainians prefers a strong state and does
not see timely democratic elections as a priority after the suspension
of martial law, he says.
Majority Against Concessions
According to KIIS research, as many as 84 percent of Ukrainians reject
any territorial concessions to Russia, and this indicator increased
between May and July when two separate surveys were conducted.
Even among residents of the south (the Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya,
Mykolayiv, Odesa, and Kherson regions), 77 percent oppose concessions.
Among residents of the east (Kharkiv and the Kyiv-controlled parts of
the Donetsk and Luhansk regions) -- 82 percent do not accept
concessions.
Moreover, the data indicates that as many as 61 percent of Ukrainians
support opposing Russian aggression until all of Ukraine -- including
the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea that Moscow illegally annexed in 2014
-- is under Kyiv’s control. Some 12.2 percent were willing to accept
Moscow’s continued occupation of Crimea, while 8.6 percent argued for
the restoration of all territory captured by Russia since February 24.
Just under 15 percent were willing to accept an immediate cease-fire
along the current lines of conflict with both sides pledging to enter
long-term peace talks.
SEE ALSO:
A War Of Independence: Six Months Into Russia's Invasion, A Ukrainian Historian Takes Stock
However, Hrushetskiy stresses that one’s war experiences make a
difference. The greater feeling of insecurity one has for oneself and
one’s family, the more likely one is to accept an immediate cease-fire
and the implied territorial concessions.
About 75 percent of those who feel the most personally secure urge
fighting on until all of Ukraine is retaken. Some 46 percent of those
who feel the least secure support this notion.
Almost 30 percent of those who say they feel “very insecure” and more
than 10 percent of those who feel “insecure” said they favor an
immediate cease-fire.
Six months into the large-scale war with Russia, 40 percent of
Ukrainians believe the situation in Ukraine is "improving." Some 29
percent believe "in some ways, it is improving, and in some ways, it is
getting worse," while 22 percent believe that things are getting worse.
Aleksander Palikot
Aleksander Palikot is an Ukraine-based journalist covering politics,
history, and culture. His work has appeared in Krytyka Polityczna, New
Eastern Europe, Jüdische Allgemeine, and beyond