Europe will “cope” he says…

I wish Russia would 'cease' ..............

...is exactly how Putin wants the W est to feel. And you can bet there'll be no "ceasing".

LONDON/OSLO, Sept 5 (Reuters) - European gas prices rocketed as much as 30% higher on Monday after Russia said one of its main gas supply pipelines to Europe would stay shut indefinitely, stoking renewed fears about shortages and gas rationing in the European Union this winter.

The benchmark gas price surged as high as 272 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) when the market opened after Russia said on Friday that a leak in Nord Stream 1 pipeline equipment meant it would stay shut beyond last week's three-day maintenance halt.

The Dutch TTF October gas contract had eased to 256 euros, up 23% on the day by 0723 GMT but almost 400% higher than a year ago. This year's price surge has squeezed struggling already consumers and forced some industries to halt production.

Europe has accused Russia of weaponising energy supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia says the West has launched an economic war and sanctions have hampered pipeline operations.

The Nord Stream pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, historically supplied about a third of the gas Russia exported to Europe but it was already running at just 20% of capacity before flows were halted last week for maintenance.

Russian gas being supplied via Ukraine, another major route, has also been reduced, leaving the EU racing to find alternative supplies to refill gas storage facilities for winter. Several states have trigger emergency plans that could lead to energy rationing and raising prospects for a recession.

"Supply is hard to come by, and it becomes harder and harder to replace every bit of gas that doesn't come from Russia," said Jacob Mandel, senior associate for commodities at Aurora Energy Research.

Plum I suggest giving this video a watch. Its 82 minutes long so if you don't want to watch the whole video fair enough but you can look through some of the timestamps for information on the the affects the war has had on European economies and public sentiment in Europe.

Note if you actually go to the youtube page of the website the user has published links to all his sources of information, so he's not making the numbers up. Obviously you don't have to agree with his viewpoint but I think he makes a lot of sense.

I'll watch it this evening, Stav

Germany should get it’s nuclear plants back up and running.

The energy sanctions have been an unmitigated disaster. 

The G7 have now put a price cap for other countries to buy Russian oil/gas.
Not for the G7, but for any other countries. 
(Arguably pushing the limits of what they should or should not be allowed to do). 

As the West owns the shipping insurance structure, they will not transport any energy from Russia below the minimum price. This will make Russia sell the energy at a higher price, which will reduce its sales.

Russia is now saying that it will cut off any country that complies with the G7 price cap.  That would make the energy market even worse for the whole world. 

The energy sanctions have been an unmitigated disaster.

There isn't even that much sanctions on Russian energy currently. America stopped buying Russian energy but wasn't a major customer for it in the first place and has more than enough energy reserves for itself.

Europe on the other hand couldn't just stop buying Russian energy like America did. They are going to put a ban on Russian oil delivered via cargo ships, but that is only to take affect at the end of the year. They have also banned Russian coal but that's no where near as important as gas or oil. Until Europe cuts itself off from Russian energy completely it prevents America and Europe plus western aligned countries from putting sanctions on anyone else who buys it, hence why China and India where able to purchase oil from Russia at favorable prices without consequences.

However just the threat of supply disruption and the talk of sanctions has dramatically driven up the cost of of energy, though it had come down somewhat in recent weeks.

The G7 have now put a price cap for other countries to buy Russian oil/gas.
Not for the G7, but for any other countries. 
(Arguably pushing the limits of what they should or should not be allowed to do).

How's that pushing the limit compared to what they have already been doing?. The US and EU have for example can impose secondary sanctions on any country who tries to sell Russia semi conductors. In affect the west is telling other countries what they can and cannot sell to Russia.

Also the price cap is also not as extreme as an outright ban that the G7 where considering.

As the West owns the shipping insurance structure, they will not transport any energy from Russia below the minimum price. This will make Russia sell the energy at a higher price, which will reduce its sales.

You have got that the wrong way round, its a price cap not a price minimum. Insurance will be provided on shipping containing Russian oil sold at or below the price cap but not above it. The idea is to stop Russia from profiting as much.

The idea behind a price cap and not a ban is that a ban might be too disruptive to the world's energy supplies and drive up energy costs even more. However if Russia ends up not selling to countries complying with the price cap then in effect it may a similar effect to a ban.

1. A semi-sanction I suppose because they are fading out Russian energy. (The plan is to have moved away 100% by 2023?)

2. G7 - I don't think they should try to force other countries to choose their suppliers. It is the G7 countries choice to not trade with a country, but they should not be able to force other countries to follow the "sanction"

3. True, price cap is a maximum. 

I am not sure this will work either, as Russia will probably just find a way around it. (At least in the short-term). Medium-term things are bound to impact Russia

1. A semi-sanction I suppose because they are fading out Russian energy. (The plan is to have moved away 100% by 2023?)

I don't think they Europe is capable of completely cutting out Russian by the end of 2023, but they would probably be able to cut the amount imported significantly by then. But it might be a mute point as Russia may no longer be willing to supply it. We are currently at the point where Russia has maximum leverage over Europe. If European unity holds over this winter, Russia won't be able to apply the same level of pressure going into next winter if they conflict is still ongoing.

2. G7 - I don't think they should try to force other countries to choose their suppliers. It is the G7 countries choice to not trade with a country, but they should not be able to force other countries to follow the "sanction"

Powerful countries and entities like the US, the EU and the G7 are basically saying to other countries you can trade with countries hostile to us if you like, just don't expect to trade with us if you do so.

3. True, price cap is a maximum. 

I am not sure this will work either, as Russia will probably just find a way around it. (At least in the short-term). Medium-term things are bound to impact Russia

Russia could continue to operate oil exports via uninsured ships, however that passes on risks to any port willing to accept there ships. Oil tankers are rather large and hard to hide so I don't think they could operate under the radar.

 Not my favourite rag: THE SUN

Stav

Back in gym tonight and will be watching that video while I'm training.

As i recall, you previously dismissed me based on my interest in why the US government is allowing fighter pilots to talk about UAPs.

So, I'll watch your video...and then you watch this one and give me your take on what is going on with this story. Yet another Top Gun flight instructor, of as sound mind as it comes, talking about the subject. Why?

It's fucking simple. The neo-nazis West captured Ukraine for 8 years and Putin saw the chance to fight us indirectly and cut our balls off. It worked. Now MSM prints horseshit about Russia losing the war when they not only fucked up the autocrat Zelensky, he also fucked over the entire western world indirectly. Very smart how it was all done. 

'...he also fc ked over the entire western world indirectly. Very smart how it was all done. "

This war is making us poorer at a faster rate than it's hurting Russia...if China also starts something,  the whole world will be in real trouble. 

I think the whole thing is going to cause governments in Western Europe to lose power.   There may be unhappiness with Russia attacking Ukraine - but inflation caused as a result of the Ukraine War is going to hit people badly and they may vote with their stomach and pocket in future.   

I think that soon the EU Governments and the UK will tell the US to bugger off and start trying to find an end to the Ukraine War through negotiation.       

This war is making us poorer at a faster rate than it's hurting Russia

Its not

...if China also starts something,  the whole world will be in real trouble.

We would be but so would China. Not sure if you have been paying attention but China also has a lot of issues at the moment.

"Its not"

You 100% sure about that...is the West rich enough to continue with this for a year more?

"China also has a lot of issues at the moment."

For sure.

I think the whole thing is going to cost governments in Western Europe to lose power.   There may be unhappiness with Russia attacking Ukraine - but inflation caused as a result of the Ukraine War is going to hit people badly and they may vote with their stomach and pocket dictating the way they vote in future.  

So far public support is still firmly behind supporting Ukraine in Western Europe. Of course that sentiment might change.

There is also the possibility what Russia is doing in restricting energy will backfire and the European public will hold Russia to blame .

I think that soon the EU Governments and the UK will tell the US to bugger off and start trying to find an end to the Ukraine War through negotiation.

Even if they did, the US doesn't have to bugger off as you put it.

The US is sabotaging peace-making efforts on Europe and that is already causing problems when EU countries try and negotiate with both parties concerned.

Biden has invited SA as one of the lading countries in Africa to the WH for a meeting - that is after the SA Foreign Minister lectured Blinken on the issue during a recent visit about the US conduct in this case.   Although both are corrupt rogues I think that the meeting may sound great for the media consumption the African countries and especially SA will buy oil and other imports at lower rates from Russia - which is already happening.

Warmongering by the USA in an effort to help the Democratic Party in the USA in the elections just two months away may despite media propaganda be likely to be unsuccessful in the USA as well.       

The US is sabotaging peace-making efforts on Europe and that is already causing problems when EU countries try and negotiate with both parties concerned.

I didn't see any sign of that and I haven't heard of any EU country complain of that.

They may not be complaining in public - but Macron nearly had a seizure when his latest talks were on way was sabotaged totally by Biden idiocy.