"No its a narrative."
An accurate narrative since Ukraine ARE running out of soldiers. 2024 saw the most desertions of positions since the war began and it's no looking like slowing down. The Ukrainian position grows more dire by the day.
"What the west did was wrong, they should have done something else shouts Plum.
What should they have done, we ask.
F**ked if I know replies Plum."
I'm not a politician, nor am I versed in negotiations. So I'm not going to pretend to be. But what I do know is a) Ukraine would always have needed oodles of support to remain competitive in this war, b) Russia has larger human stocks and c) the West could never directly support Ukraine with manpower.
So it didn't take a genius to realise that the option for Ukraine to fight would always be there, but the opportunity to prevent a war was only available briefly, and it was at least worth exploring.
So, while you are firm in the belief that Ukraine and NATO never needed to negotiate with Russia, Russia did table a list of demands and would perhaps have settled for Ukraine not joining NATO.
And all I am saying is, refuse to negotiate and war is inevitable. Negotiate and it does not work, then war happens anyway. Negotiate and agree to red lines, and perhaps you could prevent the war.
The fact that there was never an attempt to prevent this outcome was a massive failure in diplomacy.
It's not a perfect world and sometimes you have to swallow a bitter pill to prevent a far worse outcome.
I don't need to be a NATO politician to understand that.
But you were all about "Slava Ukraine", happy to send the kid to fight in a battle where it was obvious he could not win on his own and that support could not continue forever.
And now the US, correct me if I'm wrong, are withdrawing support. Will Europe support Ukraine for another 3 years? How long will the average European agree to their tax money going to war that Ukraine can't ever win?
-Edit: If what I'm reading is correct, Ukraine have agree to a deal.
It's inevitable that at some point that support will dry up, and Russia will have Ukraine under their thumb. And at that point, Russia will get far more of what they wanted than they would have had NATO actually taken them seriously and at least attempted negotiations.
...but even after all of that happens, you'll still not be able to admit that that you were wrong.
...you'll still hide behind the sovereign nation argument.
...and you'll still be telling us what a bad man Putin is.
"So with your infinite knowledge of military matters, explain to me why Ukraine's present military situation is so dire, where is it imminent collapse and defeat going to come from on the battlefield. And I'm not interested in some lazy generic comment like Ukraine is running out of gas or it has no troops."
Don't be petty or sarcastic. I treat you well even if we disagree.
Well, I will point you to the fact that Ukrainians are breaking the law and protesting the war, because they have had enough. And I'm also gonna request that you take a look at the desertion statistics.
The only thing keeping them going is foreign aid.
So, the question kinda goes back to you. How long do you anticipate the current status quo of Ukraine fighting with other people's money being able to continue?
Because the moment it dries up, they are done for.
"The west was quite right to be skeptical given Russia past track record and the extremely dubious nature of their demands. It was clear the Russian's had no intentions of good faith negotiations, they just wanted a pretext to invade Ukraine. But its complete garbage revisionism to say they where far interested in supporting Ukraine military. The west expected Ukraine to fall to Russia before they could offer any significant assistance, overestimating Russia's capabilities and underestimating Ukraine's. What they sent to Ukraine in the first few weeks wouldn't have been enough had the Russian's been any near capable as the west believed them to be before the war started."
1) Are you sure that drawing out the war doesn't suit Russia? That they might not be wanting to take it to the later rounds because they anticipate economic support for Ukraine drying up?
2) Are you sure that, at 2-3.5% GDP growth, they haven't used the war to stimulate their economy?
I don't know the answers to those questions.
Do you?
"It hasn't succeeded but nor has it failed. As the Institute of War put it, Putin's theory of victory is that Russia can win by outlasting the west, as the west is weak, it will lose its resolve and will eventually abandon Ukraine. He just needs people to abandon critical thinking and to think like you and Trump, that Russia is invincible and it can keep doing what's presently doing forever. Now he could be right and that Ukraine does eventually fall because the US pulls back and Europe doesn't step up sufficiently to cover the short fall. But that's not the same as Russia defeating Ukraine that is being supported by the west, it will be Russia defeating Ukraine because it was abandoned by the west."
Yes, and it's obvious that the abandonment is going to occur at some point. It was always obvious. And then Russia will really have its way.
I warned you about this.
Euro politicians might never grow tired of grandstanding and virtue signalling, but the European people will get tired of it.
Now, I know you would probably want to accuse me of supporting Russia. You can take that position if you want to.
But my actual position since all of this started was that sometimes you have to negotiate with the devil to prevent yourself from living hell.
I still, and will likely always, see this war as a massive diplomatic failure that cost needless lives.
I'm not interested in chanting the latest slogan than will signal my virtue to the world. I think only about outcomes in situations like these.
"Tell me what's the size of Ukraines armed forces and what's the size of Russia forces committed to fighting Ukraine. Has Zelensky mobilized the under 25 cohort?"
Why don't you use the internet. Use any Ai search engine that you like and have a look at the current state of Ukraine's human stocks versus those of Russia.
There's nothing secret about the fact that Ukraine are running out of soldiers.
As for Ukraine loosing 20% of its territory. 8-9% of that territory was taken in 2014. Of the other 11% most of that was captured in the first couple of months of the war when Russia was able to advance on multiple axis and it had a much greater superiority in nearly all aspects of war. In 2024 Russia captured around just 0.66% of Ukraine's territory at the cost of hundreds of thousands of causalities."
Yes, 20%. As I said.
That's 1/5 of their territory. For the Saffas on the board, it's roughly equivalent if losing the WC. Damn!!!
The question is, do they look like getting much of it back any time soon?
"Perhaps it's difficult to admit you don't actually have understanding of what's happening in Ukraine. But that isn't surprising when your posting videos from Russel Brandt on the Ukraine war and expect it to be taken seriously."
I only posted it because it spliced together the amount of times "It's not about NATO" was being used in the media. Which was the subject line of my post.
And Russel is a classic. I do find him hilarious. His stand-up top notch and he has a very sharp mind.
And by the way, didn't Brand turn his back on money and fame in pursuit of truth?
Now, I'm not saying he found any truth, but he did go and get himself a degree. You can chuck ad hominems all the long, but a noble pursuit is something I can respect.
When last did you turn your back on money and fame in the hopes of becoming a better person?