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Moz’s market update

Started by Plum7 REPLIES379 VIEWS· 01 Oct 2022, 08:45
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PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
01 Oct 2022, 08:45
#1
01 Oct 2022, 08:45#1
I asked you on another thread but couldn’t find the thread to see if you responded. Would love to hear your take on the current markets? I see the UK money printer is going brrrr again and the FED made a couple of dovish statements this month…while the big picture remains a mess. Are you buying atm or expecting further lows? Over the last few years i’ve been getting into TA. I do weekly and daily analysis on a few charts as part of my morning routine now. Kinda glad i started in crypto because it’s what sparked my interest in learning more about TA. I’m still trying to come to terms with fib levels though. It makes zero sense to me, apart from in very abstract ways, how fib levels are as respected by price. At some point, one thinks that charting is useless when macro factors are as pronounced as they are, and then price obeys TA perfectly. And the one thinks that macro has calmed down so trend lines and and patterns should come to the fore…and then the opposite happens with price breaking levels as though there was never any support or resistance there at all. I don’t think i’ll ever trust my own TA, but it’s a fun and interesting activity nonetheless.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
02 Oct 2022, 06:12
#2
02 Oct 2022, 06:12#2

Tough markets to call….everything hinges on the inflation numbers. Right now the market only looks at fundamentals when they point to a down move. Great earnings gets a company a small pop for a day and then it moves in concert with the whole market. Follow through is almost non existent.


The banks have raised rates dramatically, mortgage rates have more than doubled. Normally this would have fed into consumer behaviour and chilled spending. But post Covid there seems to be a live for today attitude. Inflation is proving hard to curb.


But asset prices, like housing are coming down and job openings are being filled more quickly. One of these days we will get a positive inflation reading….which is what the market wants. The day we get that the market will be up 3%.


But in the meantime the doomsayers are in charge. P/E ratios are well down. But now the bears claim earnings will disappoint. They haven’t yet, but Apple has everybody on edge.


Lots of negatives to work through. In this kind of environment TA is of limited immediate value, rumor and inflation reports set the tone. I  take note of the TA reports on Cramer, but don’t really do much analysis myself.

As for analyst reports….I guarantee you, reserves aside, most CEOs don’t have a good sense at the start of each quarter where they will end , and they have access to every number. So why should the analysts.

The S&P is down very significantly from it’s sugar high….close to it’s long term trend. It could go lower. But money invested in the market now will probably be well spent. I actually got some inflows recently and I’m averaging in…5% at a time.

Another way of playing this market is to buy a call spread on the S&P. Buy the 3600 and sell the 4000 for Dec 2024 for $190. If the market is above 4000 by then  (which it was just a few weeks ago) you make $400 on your $190 investment.

 

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
02 Oct 2022, 12:07
#3
02 Oct 2022, 12:07#3
Thanks Moz I see that some Fed people are musing over whether more hikes are the right move since the effect of the hikes is always delayed and fearing they may have been too aggressive for too long already. For me, the it feels as though there is still too much optimism in the markets and they’ll recover too rapidly if the Fed turns dovish now. Obviously not good for inflation. Good inflation news will probably see crypto do 20-40%, so i generally have my trades ready to go on print days. I’d love to know how many longs were set up and then cancelled after last months numbers haha. I know i deleted a good few. Are you expecting a capitulation event before the trend reverses? I’m selfishly hoping for one because dollar costing is so damn boring.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
02 Oct 2022, 17:10
#4
02 Oct 2022, 17:10#4
With all the lags in policy response, the Fed should be more cautious in piling hike upon hike. A good place to go next would be to stop the Student Loan forgiveness bills, that’s yet another highly inflationary move by the Dems.
While the Fed has ineptly been trying to stop inflation, the Dems continue to follow inflationary fiscal policies. Biden and his whole economic team have blown this whole thing.
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
03 Oct 2022, 10:05
#5
03 Oct 2022, 10:05#5

The fist thing to understand is that Biden and his handlers have blown the while thing DELIBERATELY. They and the other Globalist Marxists are busy with a planned economic collapse.

Hence t he USA bombing of the to pipelines

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
03 Oct 2022, 15:50
#6
03 Oct 2022, 15:50#6

I know you really believe all this nonsense HasBeen-ou, but no, the reason they are pushing expansionary and therefore inflationary policies, is because they want to be re-elected. Most Dems want more money as most people do , they are just trying to get  there by a different path.

AJ
AJHPro3,183 posts
03 Oct 2022, 17:12
#7
03 Oct 2022, 17:12#7

Remember the old saying:

Buy low and sell high.

Well I believe that the markets over the last weeks offered us a great opportunity to do just that.

I for one took advantage of numerous opportunities with the drop and built on some of the stock I hold plus bought some that I have been watching.

Sit tight and if you can afford to ride out this "drop" better days are just around the corner.

When has the market not rebounded.......

No crypto stock only monthly dividend US and Canadian stock for me.

DA
Devil's AdvocatePro7,008 posts
04 Oct 2022, 09:24
#8
04 Oct 2022, 09:24#8

Do you guys have any apps or programs in particular that you utilize to monitor or buy and sell stocks?

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