Plum - Bitcoin Stats

Hey Plum

I came across this interesting post about Bitcoin, and I have no idea if it is correct or true, but it looked legit and I thought it might pique your interest.....besides, it's a bit of fun

It started off with this opening comment of:

“If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 I’d have $2.8B now.”

No.

If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010 and watched it go to:

$1k ? $100k ? $1.7M

and did nothing

Then watched $1.7M go to $170k

and still did nothing

Then watched $170k go to $110M

and still did nothing

Then watched $110M wither to $18M

and still did nothing

Then watched $18M surge to $390M

and still did nothing

Then watched $390M deteriorate to $85M

Then watched $85M climb to $1.6B

and still did nothing

Then watched $1.6B shrink to $390M

and still did nothing

Then watched $390M surge to $2.8B

and then for some reason finally decided to do something…

Then yes, $100 in 2010 would be worth $2.8B today.

It has outperformed everything, DA.

There was a time when you could have bought a coin for less than a dollar.

It's now at $117k...and probably headed to $200-245k by December.

Probably not the time to buy right now as it's already done half of what it'll do in this bull run. The best time to buy will be late 2026.

Because of the "halving", BTC runs on a four year cycle. It has a huge blow off too every 4 years. 2025 is the blow off top year...so prices will go crazy now and then dump like during 2026. The right time to buy will be late 2026 or early 2027.

If you did that on this cycle in we're in now, where a year after the 2021 peak, it got down to $14k...you'd now be on almost a10x.

The same thing happens every four years.

Well, BTC's low in 2010 was $0.003

So buying for $100 would have gotten you 33,333 Bitcoins.

33,333 x today's price = $3.89 billion

Missed that one…..I guess in those days you had to actually buy a coin vs the ETF.

I remember back in 2012 there was an automated kiosk at an airport I was at where you could by BTC and it would give you a flash drive with your BTC loaded onto it.

If only I'd have spent a bit of money on it.

lol I'd probably have sold it ages ago though. Nobody saw these prices coming.

That’s the issue with these blow out investments …who has the courage/ recklessness to hang on for the whole payoff.

The Satoshi wallets, hold 1.1 million BTC in total.

Those wallets haven't been touched and no BTC has been sold from them since 2010. These are wallets that Satoshi dumped BTcvi the early days when he was minding the chain.

At today's prices, that's near $200 billion.

Of course he couldn't sell all of those as it would tank the market. But crazy to think that perhaps in the next bull run, if BTC breaks $400k...we'll have the world's first dollar trillionaire on paper...and nobody knows who he is.

So, looks like a 96% chance of the Fed cutting rates in September.

Risk on environment is here.

DA...get a Luno and buy some Sonic.

Thats my tip hehe

Plum there is a very complicated article in Barron’s this week on the quantum computing threat to Crypto….worth trying to get. Lots of other Crypto stuff this week.

Thanks, Moz.

Will certainly have a look.

Honestly, it is something I've thought about.

No ledger would be safe, whether distributed or secured. But then, no password or encryption would be safe.

For me, what is more scary is countries like Iran having access to Ai and quantum computing. Chat can already code programs from scratch. What happens when Iran can code Ebola with a 3 month incubation period?

Something not much discussed. But if bad actors have access to all the world’s knowledge, what are the consequences and are there any remedies. It already seems impossible to stop the scams that trap people, especially older people every day.

“People will come to love their oppression, to adore the technologies that undo their capacities to think.”

Huxley

Plum. what's the short to medium prospects for bitcoin ATM. It's lowish. Time to buy?

Short to medium term is probably down, Draad.

There are a bunch of theories flying around as to why the 4 year cycle seems to have been broken since we never had the blow-off top at the end of 2025...something that has been a constant feature every 4 years.

I won't bore you with the details but it is likely gonna continue to trend down until there is a global liquidity pulse. For a bunch of reasons markets are in risk-off mode right now, and BTC is a risk asset.

The best thing i can advise you to do, is to use the fear and greed index. ITs basically an index that tracks how fearful or greedy the market is. Its basically a broad summary of conditions and a very good indicators of when to buy and when to sell.

Simply, when market greed drops below 20...buy(market is current right on the border of extreme fear.)

When market greed goes above 75... sell.

...the important part about a strategy like this is, once you adopt it, stick to it...no matter what you hear, think or feel. Sounds easy, but it's not haha

Here is the index, you can track it over time and look at what prices were at various stages of fear/greed. See if what I'm saying makes sense from a historical price perspective.

I like this index because it removes all the noise and short terms news. It uses the emotions of others to remove your own emotions from trading.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/fear-and-greed-index/

More than $2 billion worth of Crypto bets have been wiped out in this week alone

From a high of $126 000 back in October, down to $67 000 today

47% down from 4 months ago

20% down in just the last week alone

Ether is down 23% this week alone

Solana is down 24% this week alone

This currency is just so unpredictable and volatile.....

Yeah, it's the volatility that people like. Back down at 60k last night.

I have a feeling that if you bought at 60k you'll be smiling for the rest of the year.

Have a look at the dip and rise during COVID. Every time people think it's going to zero, there is one big green candle and then you're back in a bull market.

Check out that fear and greed index I posted for Draad above.

Draad...

NOW!!!

There might still be a 10-15% drawdown from here but BTC is at +-50% of its all time high at the moment.

...however, if you're still nervous, you could perhaps wait and see if it touches $50k. But it might not and you may have missed a great buying opportunity.

In trading terms, there is a massive "short squeeze" in play right now. A bit like pushing an inflatable ball underwater. The further you push it down the more violently it surges upward when released.