Putin’s stupid war neatly dissected.

Nearly 10 months into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has suffered great losses. Its military has faltered against a foe that, before the war, appeared much weaker. A team of Times journalists published an account this weekend of how Russia so badly mismanaged its invasion, based on interviews, intercepted phone calls, documents and secret battle plans. At the center of it is Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, who has been in power for more than two decades.

I spoke to Anton Troianovski, the Moscow bureau chief and one of the lead reporters on the story, about how Putin came to decide to go to war.

Claire: When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, experts believed that Russia would quickly conquer Ukraine. That didn’t happen. What is the main reason that the war went so badly for Russia?

Anton: It was a cascade of failures, and at the top is Putin’s own misguidedness, his own isolation and his own conviction that he knew what was best. The Russian military was unprepared all the way down to a tactical level, like using Soviet-era maps. Like using their cellphones to call home, which gave away their positions and allowed them to be ambushed or attacked. There wasn’t enough food to feed the soldiers.

We got hold of actual copies of some of the invasion plans that some of the Russian military units had, which showed them expecting to race toward Kyiv within hours of invading. Russian military leaders didn’t think they’d need any reinforcements.

I talked to many people who knew Putin personally, and they told me that the decision to go to war was based on his gut feeling. Putin didn’t seem to think he needed advice on the wisdom of this invasion. Putin was convinced that he knew best, that he understood Ukraine and its place in history as well as his own.

You report in the story that, partly because of the pandemic, Putin didn’t meet face to face with a Western leader for more than a year. How did that affect his decision to go to war?

We don’t have perfect insight into what’s going on inside Putin’s inner circle; it’s still one of the world’s most secretive ruling establishments. But everyone I talked to said they didn’t believe that Putin had a single meeting before the invasion where people talked openly about the wisdom of going to war. Putin doesn’t like group discussions, he likes one-on-one discussions.

One person I spoke to compared it to a social media algorithm. Putin’s aides and friends would see what got a rise out of him emotionally, and they’d bring him information that further intensified his views.

Why were the predictions about the war so wrong?

It’s because this war was something that nobody could really imagine. It wasn’t just Putin who miscalculated. The Russian elite largely thought there’d be no way that Putin would actually go to war. Many Ukrainians also didn’t think Putin was actually going to invade, nor did the Europeans. The U.S. did expect Russia to invade, but thought it could win in days. The war was so different from anything that has happened in recent decades that it was impossible to make informed predictions.

There was a ton of miscalculation from all sides. Putin also didn’t expect the West to unite behind Ukraine the way it did, nor does he appear to have expected Europe to reorient away from Russian fossil fuels so quickly.

We’ve talked a lot about what went wrong for Russia, and of course the war isn’t over. Is there anything that is going well?

Putin recognizes that things haven’t gone to plan, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to fold. He is willing to accept a lot of casualties — up to 300,000, according to what one NATO member is now telling allies. The way Putin looks at it is that the Soviet Union lost 27 million people in World War II, and he’s convinced that the Russian people are prepared to suffer — more than people in the West.

Something else that has gone well from the Kremlin’s point of view is the country’s propaganda machine. It helped convince many Russians that the war was not going disastrously wrong, and that it was the West that was forcing Russia to fight. In addition, sanctions haven’t derailed the Russian economy the way the West had hoped, and much of the world hasn’t turned its back on Russia they way some expected.

Telling the inside history of an ongoing war is an ambitious goal. How did you all pursue this story?

It was a very intense reporting effort. I was trying to get beyond what we already know about Putin and get to some of the nuances surrounding him and his decision to go to war. It is really hard, because it’s something that so few people know for sure. It took a long time and a lot of conversations.

I spoke on the record to two rich Russians, one who turned against Putin and another who didn’t. It was fascinating to see how people made their decisions. There were a good amount of people who were willing to speak publicly. Often these people were prepared to talk because they want their side of the story out there.

Nearly 10 months into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has suffered great losses. Its military has faltered against a foe that, before the war, appeared much weaker. A team of Times journalists published an account this weekend of how Russia so badly mismanaged its invasion, based on interviews, intercepted phone calls, documents and secret battle plans. At the center of it is Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, who has been in power for more than two decades.

I spoke to Anton Troianovski, the Moscow bureau chief and one of the lead reporters on the story, about how Putin came to decide to go to war.

Claire: When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, experts believed that Russia would quickly conquer Ukraine. That didn’t happen. What is the main reason that the war went so badly for Russia?

Anton: It was a cascade of failures, and at the top is Putin’s own misguidedness, his own isolation and his own conviction that he knew what was best. The Russian military was unprepared all the way down to a tactical level, like using Soviet-era maps. Like using their cellphones to call home, which gave away their positions and allowed them to be ambushed or attacked. There wasn’t enough food to feed the soldiers.

We got hold of actual copies of some of the invasion plans that some of the Russian military units had, which showed them expecting to race toward Kyiv within hours of invading. Russian military leaders didn’t think they’d need any reinforcements.

I talked to many people who knew Putin personally, and they told me that the decision to go to war was based on his gut feeling. Putin didn’t seem to think he needed advice on the wisdom of this invasion. Putin was convinced that he knew best, that he understood Ukraine and its place in history as well as his own.

You report in the story that, partly because of the pandemic, Putin didn’t meet face to face with a Western leader for more than a year. How did that affect his decision to go to war?

We don’t have perfect insight into what’s going on inside Putin’s inner circle; it’s still one of the world’s most secretive ruling establishments. But everyone I talked to said they didn’t believe that Putin had a single meeting before the invasion where people talked openly about the wisdom of going to war. Putin doesn’t like group discussions, he likes one-on-one discussions.

One person I spoke to compared it to a social media algorithm. Putin’s aides and friends would see what got a rise out of him emotionally, and they’d bring him information that further intensified his views.

Why were the predictions about the war so wrong?

It’s because this war was something that nobody could really imagine. It wasn’t just Putin who miscalculated. The Russian elite largely thought there’d be no way that Putin would actually go to war. Many Ukrainians also didn’t think Putin was actually going to invade, nor did the Europeans. The U.S. did expect Russia to invade, but thought it could win in days. The war was so different from anything that has happened in recent decades that it was impossible to make informed predictions.

There was a ton of miscalculation from all sides. Putin also didn’t expect the West to unite behind Ukraine the way it did, nor does he appear to have expected Europe to reorient away from Russian fossil fuels so quickly.

We’ve talked a lot about what went wrong for Russia, and of course the war isn’t over. Is there anything that is going well?

Putin recognizes that things haven’t gone to plan, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to fold. He is willing to accept a lot of casualties — up to 300,000, according to what one NATO member is now telling allies. The way Putin looks at it is that the Soviet Union lost 27 million people in World War II, and he’s convinced that the Russian people are prepared to suffer — more than people in the West.

Something else that has gone well from the Kremlin’s point of view is the country’s propaganda machine. It helped convince many Russians that the war was not going disastrously wrong, and that it was the West that was forcing Russia to fight. In addition, sanctions haven’t derailed the Russian economy the way the West had hoped, and much of the world hasn’t turned its back on Russia they way some expected.

Telling the inside history of an ongoing war is an ambitious goal. How did you all pursue this story?

It was a very intense reporting effort. I was trying to get beyond what we already know about Putin and get to some of the nuances surrounding him and his decision to go to war. It is really hard, because it’s something that so few people know for sure. It took a long time and a lot of conversations.

I spoke on the record to two rich Russians, one who turned against Putin and another who didn’t. It was fascinating to see how people made their decisions. There were a good amount of people who were willing to speak publicly. Often these people were prepared to talk because they want their side of the story out there.

Nearly 10 months into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has suffered great losses. Its military has faltered against a foe that, before the war, appeared much weaker. A team of Times journalists published an account this weekend of how Russia so badly mismanaged its invasion, based on interviews, intercepted phone calls, documents and secret battle plans. At the center of it is Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, who has been in power for more than two decades.

I spoke to Anton Troianovski, the Moscow bureau chief and one of the lead reporters on the story, about how Putin came to decide to go to war.

Claire: When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, experts believed that Russia would quickly conquer Ukraine. That didn’t happen. What is the main reason that the war went so badly for Russia?

Anton: It was a cascade of failures, and at the top is Putin’s own misguidedness, his own isolation and his own conviction that he knew what was best. The Russian military was unprepared all the way down to a tactical level, like using Soviet-era maps. Like using their cellphones to call home, which gave away their positions and allowed them to be ambushed or attacked. There wasn’t enough food to feed the soldiers.

We got hold of actual copies of some of the invasion plans that some of the Russian military units had, which showed them expecting to race toward Kyiv within hours of invading. Russian military leaders didn’t think they’d need any reinforcements.

I talked to many people who knew Putin personally, and they told me that the decision to go to war was based on his gut feeling. Putin didn’t seem to think he needed advice on the wisdom of this invasion. Putin was convinced that he knew best, that he understood Ukraine and its place in history as well as his own.

You report in the story that, partly because of the pandemic, Putin didn’t meet face to face with a Western leader for more than a year. How did that affect his decision to go to war?

We don’t have perfect insight into what’s going on inside Putin’s inner circle; it’s still one of the world’s most secretive ruling establishments. But everyone I talked to said they didn’t believe that Putin had a single meeting before the invasion where people talked openly about the wisdom of going to war. Putin doesn’t like group discussions, he likes one-on-one discussions.

One person I spoke to compared it to a social media algorithm. Putin’s aides and friends would see what got a rise out of him emotionally, and they’d bring him information that further intensified his views.

Why were the predictions about the war so wrong?

It’s because this war was something that nobody could really imagine. It wasn’t just Putin who miscalculated. The Russian elite largely thought there’d be no way that Putin would actually go to war. Many Ukrainians also didn’t think Putin was actually going to invade, nor did the Europeans. The U.S. did expect Russia to invade, but thought it could win in days. The war was so different from anything that has happened in recent decades that it was impossible to make informed predictions.

There was a ton of miscalculation from all sides. Putin also didn’t expect the West to unite behind Ukraine the way it did, nor does he appear to have expected Europe to reorient away from Russian fossil fuels so quickly.

We’ve talked a lot about what went wrong for Russia, and of course the war isn’t over. Is there anything that is going well?

Putin recognizes that things haven’t gone to plan, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to fold. He is willing to accept a lot of casualties — up to 300,000, according to what one NATO member is now telling allies. The way Putin looks at it is that the Soviet Union lost 27 million people in World War II, and he’s convinced that the Russian people are prepared to suffer — more than people in the West.

Something else that has gone well from the Kremlin’s point of view is the country’s propaganda machine. It helped convince many Russians that the war was not going disastrously wrong, and that it was the West that was forcing Russia to fight. In addition, sanctions haven’t derailed the Russian economy the way the West had hoped, and much of the world hasn’t turned its back on Russia they way some expected.

Telling the inside history of an ongoing war is an ambitious goal. How did you all pursue this story?

It was a very intense reporting effort. I was trying to get beyond what we already know about Putin and get to some of the nuances surrounding him and his decision to go to war. It is really hard, because it’s something that so few people know for sure. It took a long time and a lot of conversations.

I spoke on the record to two rich Russians, one who turned against Putin and another who didn’t. It was fascinating to see how people made their decisions. There were a good amount of people who were willing to speak publicly. Often these people were prepared to talk because they want their side of the story out there.

I traveled up in a train about 5 years ago from Georgia to Volgograd. Tons of soldiers heading back to the stations for weekend pass.

To say there wasn't gonna be a clash sooner or later is naive. 

. 

Mozart

Just a question was that an article from the New York Times?   Why did you submit it three times?   

Thanks Mozart

100% BS from the New York Times - remember their top story in October 2020 that Putin was paying the Taliban a bonus for every US soldier killed in Afghanistan.  Proved to be BS propaganda and a lie denied by US allies with troops in Afghanistan and a lie since in over a year not a single death of a US soldier in over the preceding year during negotiations about Allied troop withdrawals in Afghanistan was in evidence.   They also had a major role in getting the Russian Collusion story from 2015 to 2020 publicized. 

This is the second article you posted on site by a newspaper that started off with a historical lie and was totally based on propaganda.   I will believe nothing the New York Times comes up with - they have turned into a propaganda rag.                   

Strange take on things dumbmike, let's say you are correct that they did post an article that was later proven to be incorrect. So now you reject anything they publish? Based on this you cannot have a single news source that you can accept.

Sorry but you are just cherry picking what you want to fact which you have proved numerous times on this site.

I for one think Fox posts outlandish slanted BS but I do not right off every news article they post simply because they have a political agenda and don't care what they post as long as it suits their masters.

It's amazing how DumbMike has this uncanny ability to decide what news articles are true, while the rest of the world believes fake news. (left, centre and right).

It could be a topic about astrophysics - and somehow this clown can decide on the validity over field experts of the likes of Stephen Hawking, Lawrence Krauss etc, etc.

If he or Tucker Carlson confirms something as true, it is.
It does not need facts or logic, just belief is enough for this dolt.

Would you ask Tucker Carlson for advice on heart surgery or to fix your car?   

There is no vaccine to cure stupidity. One can only hope the vet will put him down. 

Tucker Carlson, snake oil salesman of the highest order, he panders to the conspiracy nuts to make his millions.

One news anchor that has sold his integrity unashamedly.

I would believe Trump over that buffoon and that is saying something

So Tucker is a buffoon for quoting the BS spread by others and commenting on it.    At least he bases his comments on proven fact and not propaganda.   The problem is that anybody who differ from you three on media propaganda and your conspiracy theories is regarded by you lot to be influenced by lies and conspiracy theories despite proof that opposition to your version are aimed at future dictatorial regimes.  The ultra-rich owns the media and they aim at total power for themselves.         

Exactly, you just described fox news to a tee. Yet somehow you think they are different, care to explain?

CF

Fox News is small fry compared to the other media outlets.  Because it is critical of the Biden Administration it is excluded from the weekly meetings between the FBI, CIA and DNC with the media to ensure that propaganda is spread and that news detrimental to the Democratic Party is censored.   

The Russia Hoax proved that the media was fed by the FBI, CIA and the DNC on the issue of collusion and that has been continued ever since.   Russia is the culprit in all cases causing inflation in the USA, the shortage of oil caused by Government regulations undermining the oil industry does not count.   The trillions of dollars spent by the Biden Administration is not based on Russian Disinformation - the Total debt of the USA was $23,5 trillion the day the Biden Administration took over and is now 23 months later $31,7 trillion.   They now want it to  be increased to  $33,4 trillion - but it is all Russia's fault.

If anybody says that on Fox News he is lying, because the Biden Administration calls it such.   I have never seen any Tucker clips where he did not use Government statements and announcement of policies - but at present that is totally unacceptable to the brainwashed people.

Plum asked you lot to indicate one clip where Tucker lied about something and that would be very interesting.       

,.,