Tariffs

So according to you Europe and the Ukraine think this war will go on until one side breaks, or they both stop from sheer exhaustion. But wouldn’t the side that has a tenth of the manpower and whose infrastructure is being destroyed ‘get exhausted’ first.

Yes pretty much, but your assessment of the balance of power is way out.

Going by pre-war population Russia has a manpower advantage of more like 3.5 to 1. It's not 10 to one.

But neither side has fully mobilized. Ukraine choose not recruit the under 25 cohort the age group that provides the most capable soldiers in order to preserve the younger generations. Pre-war that stood at 1.9 million people, granted some of that cohort fled at the start of the war but Ukraine still has the option of mobilizing those who remained which would be several hundred thousand at least. Russia has also opted not fully mobilize its population because Putin fears the consequences of doing this. Instead he's relied on the standard yearly mobilization process in addition to recruiting volunteers by offering high paying contracts (by Russian standards) and mobilizing prisoners as well as using coercive measures on ethnic minorities but not the general population. As result Russia recruitment has mostly just about been able to replace it's manpower losses and at times been sufficient to generate additional new forces, but no one credible is saying the Russian's have an even 3.5 to 1 advantage in manpower, ChatGTP has it 1.7 to 1 for combat troops and 1.5 to 1 for total active military personal In Russia's favor. Not good for Ukraine, but for a side sitting mostly on the defensive, it's not insurmountable either.

As for infrastructure, both sides are attacking each others, though with Ukraine it's more about trying to apply economic additional economic pressure on Russia in combination with the sanctions to see if Russia's economy will tank and the Russian people will then turn on Putin. Where's as Russia's attacks on Ukraine are more about breaking Ukraine civilian morale.

However I think you also overestimate Russia's capability here, because for all they have done with their attacks, Ukraine's domestic military production has soared. In 2022 Ukraine only produced $1 billion worth of military equipment, but as of this month they are now producing at a rate of $35 billion worth and that maybe only around half of Ukraine's maximum potential output. Presently Ukraine's output accounts for about 40% of all Ukraine's military arm supplies. Ukraine is for example producing over 2 million drones a year with the potential of going to 5 or 6 million drones. Currently 80% of all causalities inflicted on the Russian's are by drones.

And we haven't even spoken about western aid.

And if Trump has a bad round of golf he might try to stop the Ukraine from even buying military equipment? Seriously?

No, its more if he takes offense at something Zelensky or a European leader says or does. Yes seriously did you not see Trump's comments yesterday

"Zelensky always wants to buy missiles [Patriot]. Listen, when you start a war, you have to know you can win it. You can’t start a war against someone who is 20 times your size and then expect people to give you missiles,"

Putin has a strong hand and is not negotiating in good faith. He never was. But this is not a popular war in Russia and the precipitous fall in oil prices is going to have its own effect. It’s a messy business and the desire to punish Putin is understandable.

It's no where near as strong as you think. Right now Ukraine is laying vast rows of barbed wire. Why barbed wire in 2025?, because most Russian attacks are infantry only. We can see in the Russian vehicle losses ratios, that there is an every increasing amount of civilian vehicles being counted in the Russia losses, why because they are running out of tanks, APC's and IFV's and have to use civilian vehicles. Satellite footage shows the gradual emptying out of Soviet vehicle deports. This is why Russia has been seen mounting assaults on scrambler bikes and from Lada's. We have footage of Russia soldier's assault positions while using crutches, donkeys being used to transport equipment. Russia does have advantages, but presently it doesn't seem to be capable of anything more than slow grinding assaults

And its not about pushing Putin, it's about not putting Ukraine into a weakened position were it will be unable to defend itself from future Russian aggression.

But the negotiations are the only hope for avoiding even more tragedy. Both Europe and the US should be pushing for peace and using all the tools in the toolbox to try to make that happen,

A weak peace will lead to an even greater tragedy. Putin doesn't want peace. He want's Ukraine to surrender or be handed to him on a plate. The US and Europe should be pushing for the right kind of peace, one they along with Ukraine mostly dictate, not Russia.

There is no magical better outcome for the Ukraine in never ending war.

Well it's not a certainty but its wouldn't be a magical outcome either that the Russian economy implodes either resulting in domestic pressure forcing Putin to stop, or hobbling military production so much that the Russian's conclude they can't advance any further on the battlefield and are then willing to accept more balanced peace terms.

Not really, the trade deficit numbers are not up for debate. The point is, these pills made for US consumption could easily be made in the States. High volume pharma manufacturing is no mystery in the US. But the tech Europe benefits from can come from the States, Korea and China. Better for Europe if it comes from the States.

As for the trade deficits, the deficit with Germany is $84 billion, almost a tenth of the total deficit and more than 25% of the Chinese deficit. The deficit with Ireland was $87 billion in 2024, even larger than Germany.

Crazy is one’s first reaction. Then you discover it’s being driven by Pharma located in Ireland because of Ireland’s tax haven advantages. Zepbound the blockbuster drug for fatties is made in Ireland. It’s hilarious glutinous Yanks are creating a trade deficit with a third world style tax haven.

if that’s not a classic case for bringing back manufacturing to the US I don’t know what is.

Once services are factored in the US has a $93 billion dollar trade surplus with Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/03/06/irish-economy-grew-more-than-estimated-in-2024/

But lets talk about Pharma for a moment. Why does Ireland and also European countries like France and Denmark and other export so much Pharma to the US. Well if you look America remains the worlds biggest exporter of Pharma, but what it did is that it moved away it's Pharma industries away from making generic (low profit) drugs into branded drugs (high profit), creating an opening in the market for other countries to focus on the generics.

Russia has a population of 144 million….Ukraine theoretically 39 million but only 27 million in government controlled areas. So potential Russian forces are roughly 5 times as large. I use 10 times because Russia seems to have access to proxies eg from N Korea, less risk of losing called up troops (everybody fixing an appliance in the US seems to be Ukranian) and more stretch in increasing the percentage of the population dedicated to the fighting. But that’s probably too high, so pick your number.

The European position seems to be predicated on the concept of a weak peace eg weakness by Chamberlain which led to WW2. They forget the strong peace at Versailles which led to Hitler in the first place.

These notions are too simplistic. Ukraine without outside forces is facing bitter years without any guarantee of an eventual ‘better’ peace. Russia has been exposed by this war and won’t be anxious for the next one any time soon. This is probably Putin’s big legacy play. In the meantime Europe should over invest in the equipment that saved Ukraine from the predicted defeat.

Zepbound is the furthest thing from a generic drug. As a Lilly shareholder it’s nice they can get better tax treatment in Ireland. But there is no other Comparative Advantage reason why drugs should be manufactured abroad for American consumption.

And I’m a little skeptical of your mate Eoin’’s numbers. He claims Ireland has a service deficit with the US of $163 billion. Whereas the figure for the European Union is $109 billion. So if he is right the rest Europe had a services surplus of $54 billion. Seems wrong.

And I’m a little skeptical of your mate Eoin’’s numbers. He claims Ireland has a service deficit with the US of $163 billion. Whereas the figure for the European Union is $109 billion. So if he is right the rest Europe had a services surplus of $54 billion. Seems wrong.

Russia has a population of 144 million….Ukraine theoretically 39 million but only 27 million in government controlled areas. So potential Russian forces are roughly 5 times as large. I use 10 times because Russia seems to have access to proxies eg from N Korea, less risk of losing called up troops

North Korea has a population of 26 million and has only sent about 11,000-12,000 men to fight against Ukraine. It's not like the entire North Korean army is going pack up its bags and move to Ukraine either There is no way you can stretch that to ratio of 10 to 1.

It's true that Russia has a notable manpower advantage, but there are constraints on Putin using it. At present in terms of active personal and combat personal, I have yet to see evidence that Russia has even a 2 to 1 advantage.

The European position seems to be predicated on the concept of a weak peace eg weakness by Chamberlain which led to WW2. They forget the strong peace at Versailles which led to Hitler in the first place

Where are you getting Versailles from...no one is advocating for that. Europe just doesn't want to leave Ukraine exposed.

These notions are too simplistic. Ukraine without outside forces is facing bitter years without any guarantee of an eventual ‘better’ peace.

You're not getting it, they don't consider the current deal a peace deal, but a delayed surrender. That's why Ukraine will probably choose to fight on.

Russia has been exposed by this war and won’t be anxious for the next one any time soon. This is probably Putin’s big legacy play. In the meantime Europe should over invest in the equipment that saved Ukraine from the predicted defeat.

Russia could rearm and and re-equip for another war within 5 years according to many intelligence estimates particularly if they think the US is no longer on the field. Europe is re-arming but we need time to do so.

Zepbound is the furthest thing from a generic drug. As a Lilly shareholder it’s nice they can get better tax treatment in Ireland. But there is no other Comparative Advantage reason why drugs should be manufactured abroad for American consumption.

Zepbound might no be, but the majority of what is exported to the US and other countries is.

Those American companies don't just sell back into the US, they also sell into the EU easier than the US selling directly into the EU. Wages are probably slightly lower in Ireland too.

Could have, should have, would have…..those are all just opinions. What about the $ 163 billion service deficit with the US?

VisKop

You really have a chip on your shoulder. Why do you hate America that much?

Lol, you seem to have a special dislike for their succesful companies.

Hey, how many European companies generate as much income for the world's population as what Facebook and Google/YouTube do? What about AI - literally a paradigm shifting technology, and yet again America is leading the charge.

If you don't like the deal you are getting, go somewhere else.

See, because that's what Americans would do. If they see how something could be improved, they'll quit their day job, work out of their garage and create an Amazon, Facebook, Google...

If you're not willing to take the risk...then just hush and take what you get.

...or just whinge from now until eternity and see how far that gets you.

I'm actually sitting here chuckling to myself as I think of the ridiculous amount industries where the US are very far ahead and how much it must tick you off.

Don't be that guy, VisKop.

Any mention of the Big Tech billionaires, and ButtPlug wants to crawl up their arses.

Trumperica" can fabricate fake tariff numbers and then try to bully the rest of the world into accepting absurd trade terms.

Big Tech has done well, but it’s inventors are more the product of the old America that was admired as the flagship Democracy —not the MAGA iteration. Today, these companies act as monopolists that close down markets, driving up share value for the richest 3%, while America’s minimum wage stagnates at a pitiful $7 per hour. They criticize China for following the same practises.

Americans likely despise these corporations more than Europeans do. They offshore countless jobs to India that could—and should—be done in America.

In case you haven’t noticed, protests against American companies are growing across Europe.

The EU has already announced plans to phase out reliance on U.S. firms like Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal. I think that is a good move for any data product, as these companies are no longer trustworthy.

That said, I still like people from California and New York—basically, any Americans who reject Trump and this MAGA movement, where folks with an IQ of 80 somehow think they’re superior to the rest of the world.

"Today, these companies act as monopolists that close down markets, driving up share value for the richest 3%, while America’s minimum wage stagnates at a pitiful $7 per hour. They criticize China for following the same practises."

That's where we differ, VisKop.

I think there should be no minimum wage.

Minimum wage should be the smallest amount of money that is possible to had over to somebody. Like, $0.01

"Zelensky does not want full military support, he wants defensive missiles. He is not a hothead either he's actually a rather collected individual, what happened in the Oval office is an absolute damning indictment of the Trump administration, not him. "

Oh nonsense...it was obvious for everyone to see...if you go begging for help, leave your attitude and entitlement at the door....Vance was a d!ck, but Zelensky took the bait and also made a d!ck of himself...he's no statesman and not a diplomat either...he has no cards...he should go sit at the table ant asked to be dealt in...making demands for assistance is arrogant and ungrateful for the help he already received...who ever advised him should have been fired long ago.

And I’m a little skeptical of your mate Eoin’’s numbers. He claims Ireland has a service deficit with the US of $163 billion.

Well he isn't my mate, but he published that piece in the Irish Times which is one of the two well regarded broadsheet newspapers in Ireland. He got those numbers from the Central Statistics Office of Ireland a government department that is answerable to the Irish Prime Minister. It's data is also independently audited and has always been considered quite accurate.

Oh nonsense...it was obvious for everyone to see...if you go begging for help, leave your attitude and entitlement at the door....Vance was a d!ck, but Zelensky took the bait and also made a d!ck of himself...he's no statesman and not a diplomat either...he has no cards...he should go sit at the table ant asked to be dealt in...making demands for assistance is arrogant and ungrateful for the help he already received...who ever advised him should have been fired long ago.

Of course you just trot out the MAGA version of what happened, say its all about you. Zelensky not statesman or a diplomat ROFL, he will probably go down in history as one of it's best statesmen or diplomat.

Saarkie, its only Bernie that persistently talks about the pitiful $7 min wage .................... from Trump & his Maga Cabjnet of National Salvation, sweet vokall .

Oh nonsense...it was obvious for everyone to see...if you go begging for help, leave your attitude and entitlement at the door....Vance was a d!ck, but Zelensky took the bait and also made a d!ck of himself...he's no statesman and not a diplomat either...he has no cards...he should go sit at the table ant asked to be dealt in...making demands for assistance is arrogant and ungrateful for the help he already received...who ever advised him should have been fired long ago

zxcvb

Here’s the answer:

Royalty payments (such as for the use of intellectual property, patents, trademarks, software, and copyrights) are part of a services category known as:

"Charges for the use of intellectual property"

— This falls under the broader umbrella of international trade in services.

So, when a company in Ireland pays royalties to a company in the United States (often for technology, software, or branding rights), that counts as a services import from the U.S. to Ireland.

In the case of Ireland:

Ireland hosts many U.S. multinational corporations (like Google, Apple, and Microsoft) that license intellectual property from their U.S. headquarters. As a result:

1. The royalty payments sent back to the U.S. are often huge, and
2. They show up as services imports in Ireland’s international accounts.

This is a major reason why Ireland’s services import figures can appear unusually large — not due to conventional services like consulting or tourism, but because of these IP and licensing arrangements.

These Royalty payments which are just part of the tax haven consequences have soared in recent years because of changes in international tax agreements. It seems your well regarded Irish broadsheet was deliberately ignoring the underlying cause for the Irish services deficit….benefitting from tax haven activities.

"Of course you just trot out the MAGA version of what happened..."

No, I actually watched the whole thing. I saw it with my own eyes and I didn't ask some else to explain to me what I saw...it's crystal clear. You don't see it cause you don't want to...

And that misleading Irish services deficit with the US is almost half of Europe’s services deficit, a patent absurdity. Which makes one wonder about that European number. Exactly how all these tax haven flows work would make for a nice paper in Journal of Finance.

VisKop and Blo...

Here's a challenge for you.

Make your best argument for minimum wage. Why a high minimum wage is such a great thing...

See if you can think past your nose when making the argument for it.

@ButtPlug, copy and paste the numbered points below into AI. (As one prompt).

Try a few AI Programs ( Chat GPT, Perplexity, etc)

1. Explain the 3 market states of capitalism (Monopoly, Oligopoly, Perfect Competition)
2. Explain the benefits and disadvantages of each, but apply them to the local, national, and global market.
3. Explain the social implications of each.
4. Explain this all within the context of macroeconomics.
5. Explain if/why a minimum wage is recommended for each.
6. Factoring this all in, what market state is the best?

'

It shows that minimum wages are less important when there is more competition because there are more jobs. It is more capitalist as an employer can hire and fire until they get the people they want to keep.

That said, I don’t fully agree with every point from the AI-generated analysis. In my view, the ideal global market structure would be a hybrid of oligopoly (2-8 companies, ideally above 5) and perfect competition.