South Africa faces ‘civil war’ conditions
South Africa is on the verge of “collapse” amid rolling
blackouts and warnings a total power grid failure could lead to mass
rioting on the scale of a “civil war”.
Western embassies
including the United States and Australia have advised their citizens in
the country to stock up on “several days’ worth” of food and water and
be on high alert during extended blackouts sweeping the country. New
Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade advises “exercise
extreme caution” due to strikes and demonstrations. “There have been
outbreaks of violence primarily directed toward refugees and other
African migrants throughout South Africa. Violence could occur again at
short notice and bystanders could be caught up.”
South
Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a national “state of
disaster” on February 9 in response to the record electricity shortage,
which has seen state-owned power company Eskom institute rolling
blackouts – dubbed “load shedding” – lasting up to 12 hours in some
cases.
“Rolling blackouts (load shedding) are occurring
throughout South Africa which are affecting private residences,
businesses, municipal lighting, traffic lights and hotels,” Australia’s
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said earlier this month.
“Blackouts
can also affect water availability, internet connectivity, mobile phone
network coverage, fuel availability, residential security features and
food supply.”
DFAT warned power outages can increase
crime. “For example, traffic jams due to power outages provide
opportunities for smash-and-grab crime,” it said.
“Residences
can be targeted when lights are out and security systems are not
functioning. Ongoing conditions have led to increased protests and
demonstrations, and in some cases, civil unrest, throughout the
country.”
The US Embassy this month advised citizens to “maintain 72 hours’ worth
of supplies at home by stockpiling non-perishable food, three litres of
drinking water per person per day, and medicines and first aid
supplies”.
It comes after the US government last month warned its
stakeholders in South Africa to prepare for a total collapse of the
power grid, tech publication MyBroadband reported.
The
US Overseas Security Advisory Council convened a meeting with
representatives from several large US-based corporations with operations
in South Africa, as well as a number of local companies, to discuss
business security concerns amid the energy crisis.
At the meeting, a recording of which was viewed by MyBroadband,
a US government official said while a total power grid failure was
unlikely, it was “something we need to start thinking about”.
They said one of the biggest dangers was the amount of time required to bring the system back online from a total collapse.
“Eskom estimates, in the best case scenario, it would take
six to 14 days to restart the power grid,” the official said. “There are
a few feeder lines from other countries, but not enough to help with a
black start situation.”
The official warned of mass
looting and civil unrest if the grid collapsed, quoting an unnamed
individual as saying: “What’s left after a blackout would be what was
left after a civil war.”
In a viral Twitter thread this
week, a neighbourhood watch volunteer with civil rights group AfriForum
argued South Africa “has collapsed”.
“We’re seeing an increase in co-ordinated attacks on water, power and comms infrastructure,” he wrote.
“Looting is no longer just a daily thing but is also now
becoming more structured with guerrilla planning involved. Our roads no
longer exist. Anything that is state-run is crumbling. police, fire and
hospital resources for the state don’t exist and are also slowly
disintegrating.”
He added the cost of living was
“insane”, with medical aid “a luxury that most cannot afford” while food
prices were “going through the roof”.
“Our murder rate is higher than the death rate in Ukraine’s current conflict,” he wrote.
“Higher
than an active war zone. Hundreds of rapes a day, thousands of
kidnappings every month, 90 hijackings a day. Farmers being murdered
like flies in the most brutal ways imaginable.”
Eskom has repeatedly explained load shedding is a last-resort measure required to prevent a total collapse of the power grid.
Over the weekend, The Sunday Times reported key
industries across South Africa had begun preparing for a total grid
collapse, installing backup power to ensure critical services such as
telecommunications and food retail could remain operational.
Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis told France24 earlier this month the rolling blackouts were putting “huge pressure on all of our basic infrastructure”.
“It’s
making it easier to steal cables when the power’s off … financially as
well there’s a big impact, we’ve got to buy hundreds of generators and
millions of litres of diesel to run those generators, so it’s very
severe the impact,” he said.
Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer at Nelson Mandela University, told Al Jazeera
the “situation is very dire”. “South Africa is the most industrialised
country [on] the continent and the cities in some of the poorest
provinces attract a lot of jobs,” he said.
He said the
continued load shedding served as a “battering ram against the
sustainable economies of these cities”. “It’s been for such a long time,
and the problem seems intractable,” he said.
South Africa currently has an inflation rate of 6.9 per cent and 32.9 per cent unemployment, according to Stats SA.
Adding
to its financial woes, the currency has plummeted close to levels last
seen during the height of the pandemic in 2020 after the country was
“grey-listed” by a global anti-money laundering body.
Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer at Nelson Mandela University, told Al Jazeera
the “situation is very dire”. “South Africa is the most industrialised
country [on] the continent and the cities in some of the poorest
provinces attract a lot of jobs,” he said.
He said the
continued load shedding served as a “battering ram against the
sustainable economies of these cities”. “It’s been for such a long time,
and the problem seems intractable,” he said.
South Africa currently has an inflation rate of 6.9 per cent and 32.9 per cent unemployment, according to Stats SA.
Adding
to its financial woes, the currency has plummeted close to levels last
seen during the height of the pandemic in 2020 after the country was
“grey-listed” by a global anti-money laundering body.
The
Financial Action Task Force’s greylisting indicates to financial
institutions that a country is not fully compliant with anti-money
laundering and terrorist financing standards.
Amid the swirling energy crisis, the outgoing chief
executive of Eskom – who survived a suspected cyanide poisoning attempt
in December – last week gave a bombshell interview detailing the scale
of the corruption plaguing the public utility.
André
de Ruyter fell ill after drinking a cup of coffee suspected to have
been laced with cyanide at his Johannesburg office on December 13, a day
after tendering his resignation in the face of political pressure.
“De Ruyter became weak, dizzy and confused, shaking uncontrollably and vomiting copiously,” energy publication EE Business Intelligence first reported.
“He
subsequently collapsed, unable to walk. He was rushed to his doctor’s
rooms by his security detail, where his condition was diagnosed as
cyanide poisoning, and treated accordingly.
“Tests taken subsequently confirmed massively elevated levels of cyanide in his body.”
De
Ruyter took the position in January 2020, embarking on a major
crackdown on corruption and organised criminal behaviour, including
sabotage at Eskom power plants.
His last day was due to be March 31, but he stepped down
with immediate effect on February 22 after alleging that an unnamed
senior MP in the ruling ANC party was involved in systemic corruption at
Eskom.
The ANC has since hit back at de Ruyter’s
comments as “completely unacceptable” and threatened legal action if he
could not substantiate his “baseless” claims.
In the interview with News24, de Ruyter said there was “a long list” of people who might want him dead.
“When you start turning the spigots closed then people will get upset,” he said.
He said his “rough estimate” was that somewhere in the region of 1 billion rand ($81 million) was stolen at Eskom every month.
“We’ve made some inroads, we’ve definitely started closing the taps, and that doesn’t make you any friends,” he said.
“It’s
difficult to speculate on who might have wanted to make an attempt on
my life, but the people with motive, clearly there’s a pretty long
list.”
He described the corruption at the public utility
as like a cancer that had “grown throughout the entire body of the
organisation”.
In the northeastern province of
Mpumalanga, where the majority of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations are
located, de Ruyter said there were at least four highly sophisticated,
“mafia” style organised crime cartels operating within the company.
“They
have a hit squad [of] between 60 and 70 highly trained, well-armed
people, and people get assassinated in Mpumalanga,” he said. “Every week
there’s pretty much an assassination. It’s deeply entrenched and it is
highly organised.”
The outgoing CEO detailed how the company faced a “systemic” problem with sabotage.
“Understand that there are many hangers on,” de Ruyter said.
The ANC has since hit back at de Ruyter’s comments as
“completely unacceptable” and threatened legal action if he could not
substantiate his “baseless” claims.
In the interview with News24, de Ruyter said there was “a long list” of people who might want him dead.
“When you start turning the spigots closed then people will get upset,” he said.
He said his “rough estimate” was that somewhere in the region of 1 billion rand ($81 million) was stolen at Eskom every month.
“We’ve made some inroads, we’ve definitely started closing the taps, and that doesn’t make you any friends,” he said.
“It’s
difficult to speculate on who might have wanted to make an attempt on
my life, but the people with motive, clearly there’s a pretty long
list.”
He described the corruption at the public utility
as like a cancer that had “grown throughout the entire body of the
organisation”.
In the northeastern province of
Mpumalanga, where the majority of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations are
located, de Ruyter said there were at least four highly sophisticated,
“mafia” style organised crime cartels operating within the company.
hey have a hit squad [of] between 60 and 70 highly trained,
well-armed people, and people get assassinated in Mpumalanga,” he said.
“Every week there’s pretty much an assassination. It’s deeply entrenched
and it is highly organised.”
The outgoing CEO detailed how the company faced a “systemic” problem with sabotage.
“Understand that there are many hangers on,” de Ruyter said.
“So
if there is a contractor who gets paid a pittance to do cleaning or
whatever the case may be, to pay someone like that 5000 rand [$400] to
walk past a gearbox with a screwdriver and just with a sharp jab knock
out the sight glass where you can check the oil level, the gearbox oil
then drains and the gearbox fails, and somebody who’s got a maintenance
contract is then called out.”
He added: “But the
individual who committed the act of sabotage is not the kingpin. That’s
just one of the runners. And that is where I think we have a systemic
problem.”
He warned the company “can’t post a policeman
over every employee’s shoulder to watch what they’re doing”, but said
Eskom had implemented high-definition, artificial intelligence-powered
cameras to recognise certain behaviours.
He warned the company “can’t post a policeman over every
employee’s shoulder to watch what they’re doing”, but said Eskom had
implemented high-definition, artificial intelligence-powered cameras to
recognise certain behaviours.
“If somebody’s loitering in
a certain area where he shouldn’t be, or if he’s smoking or whatever …
then an alarm goes off,” de Ruyter said.
“And what we
found is whenever these cameras break down there’s a spate of incidents.
So these things are very well organised, very well co-ordinated.”
Speaking to news channel SABC over the weekend, energy expert Chris Yelland said South Africa was “facing a very, very uncertain year ahead”.
“In fact what we are doing at the moment is shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic,” he said.
“We’re
seeing an unprecedented change within Eskom as an organisation, and
this augurs a period of uncertainty and danger for South Africa.”
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