When to short silver

Gold and silver are in a blowoff top of note at the moment.

There's gold mining show called Gold Rush that I enjoy. The current season was filmed in the NH summer of 2025 when gold prices were climbing and during the season the guys keep talking about how crazy the gold price is and how they're trying to put everything they can into getting as much gold as possible.

Right now it's winter in the NH and their gold season will start around April/May.

I say all this because right now gold and silver are spiking to astronomical prices and I feel for the miners on that show, sitting at home, snow outside, and seeing these prices. Their poor heads must be exploding and I bet they've never wished for spring like they are right now haha

Unfortunately for them, these parabolic price climbs are forming classic blow-off tops. Meaning, prices will rise violently, almost vertically, and then plummet just as quickly again.

And that brings me to my point.

Here is the mind blowing silver chart for the last two years...it's done roughly 500%!

My feeling is that it will dump back down to about $50 dollars after this parabolic phase...perhaps lower.

I do think there will be one more leg up now, and then the dump will happen. I've already put in a few small short positions but I'm not really a commodities guys so they're really just gambles and I'm holding to see if I can time the top(always a bad idea) and put in a bigger short with leverage when it comes.

Who'd have though it ever this expensive to kill werewolves!?

Anyhoos, any short position you take from here on out will pay. So, consider it, if you can.

Continuation of post above - broken image doesn't allow me to edit :/

When charts look like this there is generally no better time to start putting in short positions. The rule is that it will drop as quickly as it rose, often more quickly.

So for those of you looking for a little unsolicited advice from a very average amateur trader, I'd say, start putting in some short positions if you can.

I think there will be one more leg up and then it's gonna drop like mad...probably to $50.

You can buy a one month put on the market price for silver at about 11%. And sell the put at about 6%. Making it a net 5% for a double gain if it implodes. It’s hard given how high priced these options are to go outright short. But the spread could work. It’s getting tempting, especially given the volatility this week.

Difficult to stay on the sidelines when the chart looks like that, huh Moz?

I'm keeping an eye on copper

I really haven’t done much in the metals other than own a gold fund that’s been a friend the last 6 months. It’s part of the staples/oil/healthcare position that hedges stocks like Nvidia and Alphabet, which has survived the initial AI scare and is now the best of the Magnificent 7.

If Trump dies during his presidency, that might be the time to short. That chart clearly shows the rise of Gold and silver as the dollar slides. It will take a long time to move away from the historical petro dollar, but the process is well underway. The dollar is gradually being phased out as the global reserve currency. In many ways, I think it is a good idea, as it has given Americans too many advantages in the past, like being able to borrow money to service debt while sharing out the inflation this causes with the rest of the world.

America were happy with the global system, until the rise of China, which is on course to become the largest economy in the world. Trump should have chosen alliances with trading partners, but instead, he has pushed the countries more towards China than against.

Trump has his abilities, but he just does not belong in the job. He lacks a basic understanding of history and how the world got to where it did.

This is only second time I've ever done anything with metals Moz. I'm the biggest commodities noob ever.

Cheap Dollar means people buy more American goods, Visser.

...which is Trump's plan and aligns with his idea of brining more manufacturing back to the US.

Trump really wants a weaker Dollar, it's no secret.

Wait until the new Fed chair comes in in May, the Dollar is gonna go well below 90 on the DXY.

Yes, ButtPlug - Trump does want a weaker dollar - but he also wants the dollar to remain as the global reserve currency. It is unlikely that both are achievable.

There are some disadvantages to being the global reserve, but the benefits far outweigh the negatives.

The American deficit is of their own making - basically, the richest 1% increase their portion of the wealth pot, while paying a lower % tax than everyone else (Look at Texas), and then there are surprises when government debt explodes. The richest country in the world can't afford to pay its taxes.

This is how the Roman Empire crashed- it became a top-heavy system

The deal that Trump offers the world is basically shit, so everyone is making new plans.

I’ve been through so many of these America is doomed scares. It’s stronger than ever. The Theme Park, however, has damaged some of it’s best industries, horribly botched the energy sector, fallen hopelessly behind in Tech and failed to provide for its own defense. Focus there.

And tight on cue Plum:

Silver's plunge on Friday was the metal's worst daily drop since 1980 and was described by one strategist as "every man and his dog rushing for the exit."

President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair fueled a recovery in the U.S. dollar DXY, with some analysts saying Warsh would be less supportive of lower interest rates than other potential candidates for the role. That prompted selling among precious-metals traders, but that may just be a bump in the road for silver's rally.…

……

Very impressive call Plum, none of the talking heads on the business channel got this right.

Holy shit!

This doesn't even look like it'll get a dead cat bounce.

I suffer from broken clock syndrome, Moz...don't trust my next 23 calls haha

I won’t, another good call Plum….hahaha.

MozartHall Of Famer

48,468 posts

Jan 31, 2026, 03:32

I’ve been through so many of these America is doomed scares. It’s stronger than ever. The Theme Park, however, has damaged some of its best industries, horribly botched the energy sector, fallen hopelessly behind in Tech and failed to provide for its own defence. Focus there.

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America is stronger than ever — for shareholders, not for the Democratic majority. It is increasingly becoming a top-heavy society, an oligarchy. The richest country in the world can’t afford to pay its own government debt, while having the lowest minimum wage in the Western world, along with no universal healthcare and limited public services. This raises the question: why pay taxes at all?

The average IQ is decreasing in the US. Society is deeply divided with left vs right, while the Oligarchs and bribed politicians laugh all the way to the bank. Big Tech is holding things together for now, but looking at society in America, it does not bode well for the long-term.

Europe are starting to phase out American data products. Our data is not safe with the new America. Trump and the Oligarchs have said they can access data in Cloud servers. Europe is migrating away from this.

lol Moz

And in typical fashion, I'm now aching to put my profits from silver into something. And I can't help wanting to lose it all on copper hahaha