With Trade War , Farmer support for Trump erodes sharply

....Bean Brain baaad news for yr mate trying to get re elected in 2020...although he might be getting locked up before then anyway

One-in-seven farmers who voted for President Trump in 2016 would not vote for him today, according to a poll released on Monday. The escalating trade war was the leading cause of erosion for Trump among a staunchly Republican group. But a majority still back him: 60 percent would vote for him now vs. 75 percent in 2016.

Support for Trump in farm country generally mirrors party affiliation, 

https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/with-trade-war-farmer-support-for-trump-erodes-sharply

Support for Trump today in The GOP stands at a staggering high eighty eight percent and rising.

More Soya beans will be going into Europe. President T rump is fighting tariffs against US farmers and is trying to get funding to cover any losses they might in the short term cover. 

Windpomp have you ever encountered a more ignorant bunch. Obviously ou Brycy, my good friend, is mathematically challenged and has other areas of challenge which kindness prevents me from enumerating!

Very ignorant Cloudy, ask the people of Israel how effective walls are!!! The great wall of China stand today!

You are obviously very happen to see the USA destroyed by tens of Millions of invaders. Well one can only hope nz adopts open borders and gets flooded by the C hinese - wonder if the nz are as stupid as to support open borders? Could be from what one sees here! Hahahahahahahahahahaha

Build that WALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

...Bean Brain putting on a brave face but that nervous laugh betrays him.. and there is plenty of worry in the ag and manufacturing industries bracing for the backlash from those retaliatory tariffs...

will be interesting to see just how much support he gets with the mid term elections less than 100 days away.. time will tell but American farmers are'nt happy and are frankly embarrassed about having to rely on emergency aid...They want trade, not aid.

. ..Of course comrade Bean Brainski is happy with the Soviet style agricultural policy....but according to Republican Senator Bob Corker " It;s hard to believe there is'nt an outright revolt right now in Congress over what is happening" You have a terrible policy that sends farmers to the poorhouse and then you put them on welfare, and we borrow the money from other countries"...

From Republican SenatorBen Sasse.."This administration's tariffs and bailouts are'nt going to make America great again, they're just going to make it 1929 again"...so no pressure on the four time bankrupt former reality star in chief ...

,,, Draad a good quarters result but the effect of what happened before the tariffs kicked in - creating  what is being described as"a  grand illusion"...no one takes one quarters worth of evidence to make a long term prognosis of the country's economy's health....

Therefore too early to know the result of the tariff imposition...the impact will be felt when the third and fourth financial quarter results become available from what i read...not everyone's convinced the reasons behind the US  tariff war is based on clear cut economic rationale...some are referring to the actions as America "shooting ourselves in the foot economically and industrially".. and that coming from a Republican before you say left wing propaganda..

http://www.china.org.cn/business/2018-08/09/content_58299661.htm

Trumps tariffs harming America

“We’re going fair, we're going to be very flexible but we’re going to protect the American worker as I said I would do in my campaign,” Trump said in March after approving tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, using language that makes it appear he believes tariffs can be a tool to protect American jobs.

There are problems with this line of thinking.

While limiting imports on steel and aluminum might be good for American steel and aluminum producers, businesses that rely on cheaper steel and aluminum have to now deal with more expensive steel and aluminum.

There are far more jobs put at risk than are protected or created due to the tariffs. One estimate from The Trade Partnership suggests about 16 jobs could be lost for every job created by the tariffs...

https://www.dailynews.com/2018/08/08/even-if-theyre-a-negotiating-tool-trumps-tariffs-are-harming-america/

...Bean Brain how dumb are Americans t o believe this BS from the liar in chief...

..Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration, while at the same time reducing taxes for our people. At minimum, we will make much better Trade Deals for our country!

For this fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit will be $800 billion. Mr. Trump’s own Office of Management and Budget projects the deficit will top $1 trillion in 2019.

That means that to pay down any of the debt — let alone “large amounts” — tariffs will need to bring in at least $800 billion this year.

As it happens, the Treasury Department tracks how much revenue the United States collects from tariffs. By its calculations, that amount is going to clock in at about $40 billion as of 2018.

 That amount includes $35 billion that the Treasury has already taken in from tariffs over the past two years. So the additional amount coming in this year, as a result of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, is about $5 billion, or 1/160th of what Mr. Trump needs to begin retiring debt.

...Bean Brain this is what real Americans think of Trumps maths...]

Trump has promised more than once to entirely pay off the national debt in this term in office. He has so far increased it by over a trillion dollars. Government projections show his policies, such as the tax cut, causing over a trillion dollars of deficit for future years, as far as the eye can see. So he gaslights that because of tariffs we will start to pay off the debt.
Anyone describing Trump's plans for the national debt as anything but a mess of lies is either mentally competent, VERY dishonest, or both.

This is all undoubtedly true but Trump will continue to make false claims fully understanding that while many of us see him as the malevolent mendacious madman that he is, many more believe him

Where are the Republicans shedding crocodile tears about the mounting federal debt endangering their children's future? They crawled out from under every rock to lament the increasing debt when Obama was President.

Never mind, I do understand. This exploding debt is fine because it provides welfare for the wealthy versus a successful measure to avoid financial collapse for the country.

Republicans in Congress have no honor or shame and American voters are too dialed out to even know that they are handing the country's common wealth to a few rich owners of our government. Sadly a country really does get the government that it deserves.

Trump has arranged, by his tax cut and other means, to increase the national deficit to over a trillion dollars a year for every upcoming year as far as the eye can see. He somehow claims that we will thereby pay off the national debt. In fact he has more than once promised to pay it all off, entirely, during his term as President.
Anyone who presents Trump's statements on this subject as anything other than a pack of lies might be completely and utterly crooked. Or he might be significantly mentally deficient. Or both
crooked and mentally deficient. Are there any other possibilities? If so please post them.

Now all China has to do is start selling off its US Debt, and the world start bypassing the US dollar in trade, as in Iran oil.

Never has the US had such a banana republic type of president, with total unconcern about the livelihood of the people and what is really good for the country.

I guess math was another one of those subjects they taught poorly at "the best schools."

Stop confusing the public with facts. The Trump reality is what will happen as the USA slides into the dustbin of history!

Trump's ill-advised tariffs will have damaging ripple effects on a variety of industries and American workers will soon start to pay the price. In South Carolina, 126 people are soon-to-be unemployed. Element TV Company in Winnsboro has served notice to the S.C. Department of Workforce and Employment that it will close in October, which will result in the layoff of 126 of its 134 full-time employees. The high tech television company said the tariffs are entirely to blame for their closure.

If you believe Trump will make America great again - or believe like Trump that tariffs are going to pay down the national debt, maybe you should think again.

Fine and dandy. But the author could have included a paragraph or two about how the tariffs will impact American jobs. Many Americans are employed in companies that use or sell imported goods subject to Trump's new tariffs. At an inflection point of price versus demand, those jobs will be lost.
It works the other way around too. The countries Trump is hitting with his tariffs will respond with their own tariffs. As the price for American goods rise, demand will fall. People will lose their jobs, lots of people. Takes time to build factories, and with the higher price of American labor versus in places like China, the price of the finished goods "made in America" might be too high for many.
Tariff is simply a fancy word for tax. This from the president who loves to brag about his tax cuts, supported by the party that supposedly hates taxes of any kind. Especially when it's rich people and large corporations paying them.
Putin's laughing and telling jokes in Russian. Trump, Rohrbacher, and plenty of other Republicans are laughing too. It's the vodka, they don't get the jokes because Putin wouldn't allow any translators in the room.

Your chart that goes back to 1960 obscures Trump's instinct that goes back to the age of Taft, TR and McKinley when, before we had an income tax, the federal government was mostly dependent on tariffs. Clearly, that was and remains Trump's way of covering the deficit his income tax bonus to the rich has already cost.

"To get that kind of money from trade policy alone, Mr. Trump would need to impose a more-than 33 percent tariff on $2.34 trillion in imports — which is to say, every single good the United States imported last year."
I wouldn't put it past him.

"To get that kind of money from trade policy alone, Mr. Trump would need to impose a more-than 33 percent tariff on $2.34 trillion in imports — which is to say, every single good the United States imported last year."

I wouldn't put it past him.

Wait until there's an uptick in unemployment because of the tariffs and the cost to companies. Then we'll see a recession/depression that is wholly owned and caused by Trump and his enablers the GOP.

It's really time for American politicians to stand up and work for 99% of us instead of the economic elites. The elites don't need tax breaks or any government handouts. The rest of us do. We need jobs that pay decent wages, affordable housing, access to medical care when and where we need it rather than when we can pay for it. There is no reason for any person who has skills to be unable to find a job that pays no matter what level of education they have or how old they are. Yet our current economy, tariffs and all, continues to leave thousands of Americans without any means to support themselves.

People can't move because they owe on mortgages or are locked into rental agreements. People can't be retrained because the money isn't there or the requirements to receive it are so complicated and the hurdles are too high. Tariffs are not providing us with new jobs. Corporations in our consumer driven economy are driving us to another recession by not hiring Americans even though we're here, ready and willing to work.

The unpatriotic ones in America are not the critics of the government. Today it's the people running the government that are being unpatriotic. They are lining the pockets of their rich donors or their own businesses. It's also called corrupt.

Republicans, in recent decades, have lied habitually about what it is their economic policies will achieve. That Trump's promises are even more fabulist than those of his contemporaries, in and out of Congress, is par for the course in the age of Trump and the new Ferengi economy he is fashioning.

One thing should be clear to all: once Republicans are removed from office, absolutely everything we have held dear will either have to be restored or rebuilt on a foundation that will not allow for the kind of rot and perversion we are now in the midst of.

The Trump/Pence administration has been undoing absolutely everything since day 1, with the ultimate goal to reverse the flow of money from the 91% to the 9% and monetize our national treasures and resources. All of the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress are the human equivalent of plecostomi in a fish tank. We are being cleaned out.

---

Greed & Malfeasance Never Sleep: 'Things Trump Did While You Weren’t Looking' https://www.rimaregas.com/2018/08/07/greed-malfeasance-never-sleep-blog4...

Looking forward to weekly chart from Bypassing-Congress Mnuchin showing our tariff receipts.

Soup-Can Ross can show COLLECTIONS by all other countries for same week.

Then, have Fox-pundit Grover Norquist explain - how the entire planet is not taxed by Trump's 5 August 2018 "Because of Tariffs" 'plan'.

Norquist recently pushed Trump to bypass Congress and redefine "cost", so 86-percent of Tax Cut 2.0 will go to Wealthiest 1-percent. His explanation for -
why most Americans don't see "amazing, wonderful" in First Tax Cut:

Norquist on Fox and Friends: "Some polls suggest a number of Americans are unaware that they're keeping more money. One of the reasons for that is that 83% of Americans have direct deposit so they never look at their paycheck because their pay goes straight to the bank."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wonkette.com/grover-norquist-does-not-k...

The MAGA-hatted bird brain still buys it.

History shows that any significant reduction in what is popularly termed the national debt (it is actually national savings) presages an economic depression, each and every time it has been tried.

So, in others words, the little tax reduction that the middle class or working class people did get in the 2017 Tax Bill is nullified by the tariffs imposed on import goods. After all, corporations always pass the cost on the consumers.

Sound like Trump University.

The whole point of tariffs is to decrease the buying of a product. Why would anyone think that deficits are being reduced?

No, tariffs aren't going to pay down the National Debt immediately, but what money is paid is revenue. It is one of the few income producing activities of the government. It will go towards reducing the National Debt.
I didn't know that. I didn't know that the increase in price I pay will be paid to the government. All I knew was that the sellers were going to raise prices and I was going to have to pay them.
Well, I'll be. I am one of the few, I suppose since everybody is getting a tax cut, that will pay more income tax this year. And now I will pay even more through indirect taxation? Mr. Trump is doing this to make sure the U.S, is treated fairly by its trading partners?
Well, I hope my money holds out until Mr. Trump finishes fighting to make sure the U.S. is treated fairly. It is turning out to be a pretty expensive endeavor.

Those who still think that Trump is making America Great should closely examine what he does, and not be misled by his "tariffs based on national security" or his "separating families and turning away asylum applicants" as protecting our country. His personal habits are costing us millions of dollars. How many of you can visit your private golf course whenever you want at an expense of about $185,000 to taxpayers (which, by the way, he "earns" as the money that is spent goes to his corporation), or bask in the Florida sun with the same income earning template. Not to mention the disruption of the local communities (he DOES, as president, have a really beautiful getaway in Camp David, which was good enough for all our other presidents -- no gold toilet, tho).

So all you fiscally responsible Republicans out there, beware of supporting those candidates he endorses. He is NOT looking out for you or our nation. He is looking for a loyal court to support his vision as an autocrat and imperial president. You may choke at the thought voting Democrat, but we won't destroy the Democracy, and you might be able to rebuild a responsible GOP so that we can return to the Constitutional intent of our forefathers with checks and balances after the stain of Trump is removed.

- Look for Trump to end sanctions on Russia and to back out of the Iranian nuclear deal, to help Russia rebuild its economy, strengthen Putin and make Tillerson and Trump even richer, thus allowing Trump to satisfy his creditors at Blackstone. Don't forget that trump still won't reveal his tax returns. Everything is about paying HIS debt, not the country's.

Trump raises the deficit by a trillion dollars for tax cuts for the top echelon of wealth - then raises cost of goods for people who relied on lower cost products so that their increased costs pay for the tax cut for the rich? Now THAT'S rich.

Now that we will be hit with inflation from at least three sources (rising cost of imported goods, rising food costs due to deportation of workforce, and increasing fuel costs from higher demand), we now know what Trump was seeking from Russia: he was trading his dollars for rubles.

Who would have guessed that addition and subtraction would be so complicated?

Donald’s lies are getting more ridiculous! Someone should inform him the President Obama’s debt has been TRIPLED by the GOP Tax Scam!

Since when did overloading yourself with debt bother Trump? It was his business model.

The calculator continues to be the mortal enemy of Republicans and Trump is no exception!

Apparently Trump doesn't believe in Adam Smith's invisible hand, but he clearly does believe in putting his hand in your pocket to help himself and other rich folks.

Hmmm! Lets see, since the average foreign content in a US built car is about 40%, a 25% tariff on imported automobile parts would raise the average car built in the US by about 10%. Foreign cars would go up by 25% and more if they have US content, which in turn would be subject to counter tariffs charge by EU, Japan, etc.. Manufacturers in those countries would seek alternative, non-US suppliers, hurting US exports. Similar conditions will exist for other industries, resulting in increasing costs to US buyers and hurting US exporters. Because of the resulting lower purchasing power the US consumer will delay purchases of non-essential goods, further hurting the US manufacturing sector. The resulting lowering of the US tax revenue from the manufacturing sector is substantial and may be larger than the revenue from the tariffs. Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Well thought out Mr. Trump! Is this suppose to satisfy your promise of MAGA?

In the next presidential campaign debates, I suggest we have a series of math questions. Might help identify candidates like Trump who have math phobias.

Wait a minute! I thought the tariffs were to punish other countries for bad behavior by making their products more expensive and therefore REDUCING demand for them. And if no one is buying them (because they are buying cheaper American products) then no tariffs are generated, and the deficit remains.

If the sales continue as before, and are successful in generating revenue to reduce the deficit, then the tariffs have FAILED as punishment for these other countries.

You can't have it both ways.

Sooooo .... The Donald’s plan to reduce the national debt is basically to increase taxes via increased costs passed thru via the tariffs. Isn’t this un-tax plan very unRepublican (unless, the un-rich are taxed and then all bets are off) and counter to the tax reductions (that I’ve seen in my Pay-stub) recently signed into law by The Donald.

1) Math is science
2) Trump has made it clear on every occasion he does not believe in science
3) When his lips move, odds are he’s telling a flagrant lie
4) He’s been bankrupt 4 times and in one year had a business loss of $1 Billion - I would trust him to balance my checkbook, let alone opine on the impact of tariffs on debt.

To imply that Trump will have a “Come to Jesus” moment on fiscal responsibility is asking you to believe in fairy tales.

Bad at Math. Bad at English which is illustrated by his below average vocabulary. Bad at Spelling which his tweets illustrate. He's the equivalent of Jethro from "The Beverly Hillbillies."

Trump math 2+2= 19 trillion. Problem solved. Can I be enrolled at Wharton now?

This might be even less likely than Mexico paying for the wall.

The President talks about using increased tariffs to reduce the national debt. What he and the Republican Party do not mention is that the entire increased tariff revenues will result in increased costs of imported products. The vast bulk of purchased goods is made by working, middle-class, and retired members of the electorate and simply constitute a tax increase.

The President, the White House staff and the Administration and the Republican Party are using the tariffs to provide even more tax cuts for the top one percent of wage earners and under the guise of creating (while losing) U.S. jobs and reducing (while increasing) the costs of imported goods.

That added $100 bil in capital gains tax cuts don't grow on trees, you know.

the question is how long the rest of the world will continue to tolerate the United States dollar as the de facto International currency.

Once the dollar is just another under funded piece of paper, we will be subject to Runaway inflation. this could result to the United States becoming just another oversized Banana Republic.

This is the real danger of allowing a president with no understanding of international Affairs or of Economics to exercise his instinctive views and impulses

It will still be ages before another currency becomes the world reserve currency. Chine will probably share the position but their lower level of transparency in finance will continue to delay that position.

Every article like this should begin by pointing out that tariffs are actually sales taxes paid by those buying the items in question. In effect Congress has given the president the right to impose a sales tax on whatever he wants as long as he dresses doing so as "national security". President Trump quickly appreciated he could grant a huge tax break to corporations and the wealthy, with just a few temporary slices for the middle class, but to a significant degree recover the revenue given away to the winners by imposing sales taxes of 25 percent or more on the products they buy from China, autos partially fabricated in Canadas and Mexico, or other imports. And all in the name of national security. In my home state of Oregon a sales tax is anathema to voters yet in all probability Republicans will reward Greg Walden, our lone incumbent Republican, with another term in office. Yet Walden favors the 25 percent sales tax his constituents pay to finance tax reductions for New York real estate developers. Think about the logic......reject a 2 percent sales tax to cover public education or rebuild bridges in Oregon but support a 25 percent sales tax to benefit out-of-state hedgefund managers. I might argue a 25 percent tax on imported oil might encourage purchase of fuel-efficient cars, though those will also pay the tax.
The critical point here is "tariff" is something in international trade distant from most of us, SALES TAX screams at us for its damage to our finances.

There's a problem with his math?

When will the Times and it's articles start using the word "lie" to describe Trumps comments?

Anyone can tell the tariffs will not deal with the deficit. Anyone knows Trump cannot eliminate the debt in his term as President. But all you see from the Times are words like bad math, misleading, and the such. Call them what they are; lies

Tariffs are paid directly by the foreign manufacturer to the Fed Gov or by the importer.

And yes, as the article says the gov can raise a minuscule amount of revenue relative to the national debt this way, but it is the American consumer who is providing it.

Tump adds a tariff, the importer in turn raises prices to cover the tariff.
Goods move from another country to the US, and US consumers ultimately pay for the tariff when they purchase the goods or services at higher prices.

Tump is clearly too dumb to understand how trade and tariffs work.
He obviously skipped Econ 101.
But if there is both an arrogant and monumentally stupid way to try and do something, tump will find it.

Based on my experience, your assertion is wrong. When you import something you have to pay the tariffs to get it into the country. The vendor does not pay; the purchaser pays. In the end it doesn’t matter but thought I should point this out.

Trump has never been good with balance sheets.

I am beginning to think that the press should stop reporting anything Trump says, since there is little truth to any of it. Trying to correct or debate the nonsense he spews just gives his base a stimulant. The best medicine for bullies and narcissists is to ignore them.

Really this article is just proof that either side can focus on certain statistics and data to prove their point.

Last week the NYT ran a piece saying the corporate tax cut was going to blow a hole in the budget. It is roughly the same amount annually as the amount the NYT claims here will be collected from tariffs.

So in the article opposing the corporate tax cuts, $200 billion is a huge amount of money. But in an article opposing tariffs, $200 billion is a drop in the bucket (from a deficit perspective). I tend to agree with the latter, but the NYT wants to have it both ways.

@Paul
I see what you are saying and the focus of articles may be misleading. But read that Trump claims in the Twitter that he will pay down debt - he is not talking about balancing budgets - which you got to do first before you can pay back your creditor, The key is that Trump puts the foot into his mouth - his supporters believe it and we are strenuously trying to proof him wrong.

@Paul I don't see a conflict here. Whether an amount is big or small depends on what it is being compared to. $200 billion is a huge amount by itself but if Trump wants to use this to pay off the debt then it is a small drop in the bucket relative to the debt.

Mr. Trump invents stuff on the fly to justify and popularize his bad policies as soon as he faces a headwind from some of his core supporters.
Can you already see Trump supporters thumping their chests and applauding their ingenious master?

ah, if the trumpster--and his cult--paid any attention to facts, figures and reality this would be worth knowing.

but it makes not one whit of difference to the great unwashed.

Pay off someone’s debt but not America’s. Read “Beijing Jeep” available on Amazon. China wants open access to the US, to be able to buy any thing it wants, and for Chinese to freely emigrate to US and be granted US citizenship but China is closed to foreigners, a foreigner cannot buy anything in China of any significance, and though there have been millions and millions of Chinese-Americans there have been 0 American-Chinese says Harvard’s Chinese author Eric Liu. China’s tariff on the US is 200 years old. Nothing gets into China except on terms benefiting Chinese or to help Chinese steal from nonChinese. If you think the trade war is something new, be assured it is not.

@ABC the things you say about China are true, but the tariffs will not pay off America's debt. The tariffs are offset by major corporate tax cuts, and the higher prices will impact the lower 90% of the US populous.

‘Math is not on his side’ is the line of the day, Cotton.

Will Wharton be wanting the Donald’s correspondence course certificate back?

The value of any business degree in terms of actually enabling thinking on the part of the recipient has been in serious doubt for a long time. Trump and Bush 43 just reinforced it.

That he doesn't know that tariffs have time and again led us into recession/depression is revealing of his ignorance and incompetence. Read ahead and you can see it.. another dem admin inheriting a GOP disaster and hopefully able to bail us out of a total meltdown.

@Bob With no thanks afterward, a short span of induced amnesia, followed by Democrats being nailed with the blame for the whole darn mess.

If we continue to vote for any leader who lies then we are going to keep getting more and more lies.

How is he getting away with all this? His entire government is run like his sham university. So the justice department, and congress are really going along with this? It's horsefeathers, not economic policy. Please someone, make it stop!

Seems that the "supposed " president of the US ,Don the Scammer, can't do simple arithmetic !
No wonder he has 5 or 6 bankruptcies under his belt and
goes to Russia for loans and campaign cash.

So we American consumers are going to go further into personal debt to finance trump's tarif folly. How does this lift the shrinking middle class and the poor who will be hit the hardest as it is of little consequence to trump's rich friends to whom he wants to give another tax cut to on top of the one hr gave them at the beginning of the year. Something's very wrong with this picture. Trump of and for the rich. He has played his base for fools.

@Steve

Well, they can always eat cake . . .

One way to reduce the national debt: tax Trump's lies.

@Alexandra Chapman, no taxing Trump's lies would actually eliminate the debt. You don't realize how often he lies.

This is what it means when you have a President who is clueless about basic math, but doesn't hesitate to loudly trumpet his ignorance.

Trump's unfamiliarity with economics and the truth should have been obvious to voters when he promised to dramatically increase military spending, preserve Medicare and Medicaid, and pass huge tax cuts while paying down $21 trillion national debt in 8 years!

Unfortunately we have a populace that seems just as numerically illiterate as he is.

Wow!! So, the government really gave a tax cut to the rich and is going to increase the taxes to the poor.

"Tariff" is a nice name that hides its nature. Tariffs are taxes.

Even if tariffs could raise that amount of money (and they will not, by far), it would be tantamount to a sales tax, that is, a regressive tax.

Everyone, poor and rich are affected by tariffs, but, in proportion, the poor even more so.

Once more, the poor who elected this populist man shoot themselves in the foot.

I’d rather they shot themselves in the head — the outcome for the nation is much better. Especially since they wont have the ACA to cover those wounds to their feet.

Mr. Trump may have a passing recollection of Voodoo Economics, which didn't really work either. Of course, that phrase might challenge his spelling abilities or the comprehension level of his willing accomplices in Congress. I would, perish the thought, hate to think the "fiscal discipline" has just been another example of thinly veiled hypocrisy, but it certainly appears to be exactly that.

Think of this all in more simplistic terms: The greedy kid with zero appetite control makes it to the kitchen first, he grabs everything in the cookie jar leaving some obligatory crumbs, the greedy kid who has jammed the greater part of the cookies in his avaricious little maw tells the rest of the kids that those crumbs are the best part of the cookies by far and they dive in, the other kids believe it for about a year or two and then figure out that those crumbs just were not all that they were cracked up to be and take their revenge on November 8.

I spend more than I make. Should I hoard something?

Trump policies have consistently hurt his voters. But that doesn't matter, because his support comes from his racist policies not his economic policies.

In a different time this was called voodoo economics. As the article points out the math just doesn't work and laying this at the feet of the Obama Administration is just one more falsehood put forth by the prevaricator and chief. The Republican Party has abandoned one of it's supposed values....fiscal sanity and responsibility. The last Republican President actually spent over a trillion dollars on an un-budgeted war. Not to be outdone, this one is going to spend us into bankruptcy all to serve the richest 1 % of the population. The sad part is that those that will be hurt the worst are seen currently shouting obscenities at his biggest enemies...the free press. How low we have sunk.

The "tax cut" and the crazy tariffs are just the kind of chaos that Putin pays Trump--and collaborating Repub legislators--to wreak.

Trump is mentally challenged verging on insane. His non-knowledge of arithmetic led to six bankruptcies. Some businessman! However, Putin's oligarchs knew what they were seeing when he came to them hat in hand with a Moscow Trump Tower project in 2013, and knew he could be had for a price. They also knew that Brexit could be had for a price, as could Front National in France--and American legislators caught in the money trap wrought by Citizens United.

As a result, we have a president whose "work" consists of formulaic copies of Nuremberg Rallies and who views recordings of same to serve his needs for narcissistic onanism at the hands of others.

When I was growing up, this was called New Math.

You don't need math when you can just lie about everything. I sometimes wonder if it ever occurs to Trump, even in the slightest, that his lies, and the rest of his behavior, are absolutely despised by the other 60% of the country that is not his base.

Tariff and spend. Tariff and spend. Republicans need a new plan.

Well at least, even if he doesn't recognize it, Trump is onto the idea that higher tax rates can produce higher government revenue. Give him credit, that's a pretty big leap over the supply-siders around him. If only he understood the same thing with income taxes, and directed it toward the people who have all the money. Which is to way, if only he completely reversed his tax cut. Amazing how much more revenue the government would collect!

Since Trump is using tax payer funded welfare to buy off voting blocks like Farmers it could end up adding to the deficit, especially if he adds other industries to the welfare queue.

My bet is that the net economic benefit won't be large enough to cover Trump's golf expenses.

John David James--There will be no economic benefit, because tRump doesn't begin to understand economics, or how American business really works. He is a FAILED businessman, owner of a tiny company, that is barely making ends meet, and IF he pays his taxes, it won't keep its head above water, for long.

I have worked in the import industry for 21 years now. I have gone from the guy who collects the paperwork for customs entries and makes phone calls, to the manager running an import company.

I have seen tariff duty rates drop in this time, at some point everything seemed to be duty free, specially under Obama.

I have also seen the steel duty rates of 25% and China made additional duty rates of 25% of this year.

I can assure you, Customs is now making a killing.

Example, Chinese products, quite a bit were duty free, now 25%, or were 5% and now 30%. Example, Steel was duty free, now 25%, Aluminum 5% now 15% (additional 10%).

It is now at the point where we have to ask clients to pay their duty directly, because customs entries have gone from 'duty free' to '$20k duty' in many occasions.

And soon another two lists of imported items will be coming up for review and if they pass, it will be 25% duty on many more items.

Yet imports remain unabated.

Until we start making it here, we will continue to import. And Customs is very happy to see the money flowing like it's Christmas meantime; where that money goes? only they know for sure.

I don't know if anyone really knows how many bankruptcies Trump has engineered, but four casinos has got to be some sort of record. It's not easy to bankrupt what is essentially a privately owned mint, but Trump did it, batting a thousand in the process. And now, this guy is essentially in charge of (meaning he thinks it is his) the Federal Mint. I expect the filing to take place in the very near future.

So this tax-by-another-name, will become the vehicle by which the holders of US government bonds (the wealthy and foreign governments) will be paid from the incomes of average American consumers (not so wealthy and all Americans).

The audacity and economic ignorance of our President are both breathtaking.

Trump needs to be a better communicator. If he can hone his message and explain how the tariffs will lead to more globally balanced trade, wait for it, the money from those tariffs would be used, almost exclusively to fight the war on poverty, fund social justice and raise the standard of living, they're be no stopping him.

@Smartpicker
Chances of that happening are zero to none.

@Smartpicker except what you said will not happen. Those $ will go to fund the military and other spending, not social programs. But I see your point - Trump could lie about it and say that the $ will help the needy - his followers would eat that up and declare he is a great leader.

Thought the purpose the tariffs were to drive back production of goods to the US, vs collecting a TAX (which a tariff is) to offset our debt.

Wait, aren't the costs of tarrifs ultimately born by American consumers? So that means I'm going to be paying down the debt incurred by tax cuts for the rich...

Trump said his tariffs would pay down the debt. What he meant was that revenues are due to his MAGA policies, while the debts are due to Obama and the Democrats. I'll bet the GOP agrees with him. Let's wait and see...

Tariffs are passed onto the consumer. Any money raised from them should be properly counted as a tax increase and a regressive one at that since it falls on purchasers.
Trump in his ignorance is not able to even consider secondary impacts.

I guess Mr. Trumps plan to get rid of the entire debt is at some point claim the country is bankrupt and we can start over, sound familiar.

"paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration,"......The Truth is that Obama inherited a $1.3 trillion dollar budget deficit from the Bush Administration. Over eight years of the Obama Administration it was reduced to ~ $500 billion. The budget deficit immediately expanded under Trump and will be about $830 billion this year and over $1 trillion by 2020. Facts matter.

Not to Trump, W.A. Spitzer. Facts, to him, are so irrelevant they aren't even pesky.

No they are not just like the tax cuts aren't going to pay for themselves. They're just not! This isn't difficult math, kids!

I would like to see the tariff tax, broken out on every receipt. I believe consumers can then make an informed decision.

Who knew math could be so complicated? Mr. Trump, when he thinks, is a binary, zero-sum, transactional sort of guy. In other words, simplistic. He and the party he leads take no heed of economists' warnings of unintended consequences, ripple effects or other possibilities that don't fit in with their 30-second spots. Just another piece in the big pile of evidence that he is not up to the job of being President of the United States.

The question is, do we have a Maduro or a Mussolini, occupying the White House. Just as the Venezuelans are heartily sick of their comic opera dictator but cannot get rid of him, we have a similar problem. Venezuelans know where their national debt went: it went to the pockets of Maduro and his supporters. In our case, Trump had to share the loot but will do better as he consolidates his power. So, Trump imposing import duties to pay off the national debt is like Maduro levying excise duties on petroleum exports to balance current accounts. In both cases, the money is going to Russia and Cyprus! Has Trump thought about spending summer holidays (and winter, too!) on a Black Sea resort at the new (to be opened), Trump Limbo?

Trump says a lot of things that aren't true. What he isn't saying is that if it affects the national debt, it will be on the backs of consumers.

A 25% revenue on 200 billion dollars (or 50 billion dollars in collected tariffs) is probably not likely since demand for the 200 billion dollars of goods is likely to go down because goods with tariffs will cost consumers far more. The likely result a sure tax on consumers and declining revenue from the initial tariffs.

@Cecil Hoge 'since demand for the 200 billion dollars of goods is likely to go down'

OK, no.

Walmart will not empty overnight, neither will most other stores selling imported goods from China.

The sale of China made goods will continue unabated.

Why? we barely manufacture anything here because it is so much cheaper to make it in China. Until we begin to make what we need or don't need but still buy, Walmart will be packed selling 'Made in China'.

If tariffs are a tax that is passed on to the customer, then shouldn’t Trump’s lowering of the corporate tax rate also be a lowering of tax on the consumer?

@Dan L, that is what Trump fed to his base, and they believed it. Except corporations did not use their lower corporate tax rates to lower prices, hire more workers, or invest in more facilities. Corporations used the tax cuts to buy back stock shares and enrich their own shareholders.

You forgot to factor in revenue from increased labor. More jobs mean more people working and paying taxes.

@UBloMe
An country that is at full employment cannot create more jobs. Any job "created" means another job will go unfilled (is lost). Only solution to that is to increase immigration (not happening under Trump) or you will just stoke inflation (forcing the Fed to shut down the economic expansion). Tariffs are a regressive tax that hits the consumer class at least a handful of different ways - even if they may slightly increase wages for a few lucky workers.

@Ivan

Unemployment has gone way down which means more jobs being filled. Immigration isnt an issue that Trump is against, Illegal Immigration is what the issue is.

There ain’t no way to hide those lyin’ eyes.

Trump’s first budget in 2017 was 80 billion a year more than Obama’s last budget in 2016. The budge deficit in 2018 is on pace to hit 800 billion, more than 140 billion more than 2107. The deficit forecast for 2019 is a trillion dollars. Trump’s four years in office (pray that is all) are on course to add almost 4 trillion to the overall US deficit. Those are the facts.

But not to worry. Thanks to Trump’s massive corporate tax cuts, this year American corporations will buy back over 600 billion of their own shares to add to their bottom lines which will most assuredly allow them pay their workers much, much more than they are making now. And if that doesn’t happen then the 57 American families that own more than the bottom 150 million of you combined will surely be there for you all. And there is also a massive backstop in place if that doesn’t work. Trump’s one promised, and surely by this time, well thought out infrastructure plan will kick into high gear and America’s workers will be saved. And hey, if none of this works America will at least be a little whiter next year. After all, the one thing that is absolutely true is that there will be less coloured folk getting into the country.

A VAT tax in another form. Conservatives never found a tax cut for the rich too small or a tax on the middle income consumer large enough. Their policies impoverish everyone but the uber rich that contribute to their campaign.

"Math is not on his side." Understatement of the year......

Math, truth, civility, intelligence, patriotism, and articulateness are clearly not on the side of Donald Trump. One wonders what (if anything other than self-interest) Mr. Trump has any knowledge about. The evidence is scarce and becoming more so with each passing day.....

preach!!

Very good article. First some numbers

US National Debt 2008 : $ 10.025 Trillion
US National Debt 2016 : $ 19.573 Trillion

The US National debt doubled under the Obama administration's attempts to fight the recession.
Alas, most of the money spent was captured by the credit worthy rich. Mark Zuckerberg used it to refinance his Palo Alto home at 1%, whereas non credit worthy home owners with under water mortgages could not get their hands on the money.

Never mind. How to pay it down ?

There is no way around the fact that Americans must pay more to the government. In one form or another.

1. By inflation, a tax on savings
2. By tax increases (personal income
tax, wealth tax, inheritance tax, you choose)
3. By federal tariffs on imported goods (used by the US
until financing WW I, resulted in the introduction of the
personal income tax).

Each has advantages and disadvantage. In a global economy it is difficult to tax the rich. That is why Macron in France lowered the taxes on the rich and increased it for retirees. Historically, the US used inflation. Alas, this too is increasingly difficult in a global economy as money moves to where it will decay less.

That leaves tariffs, that the US used since the 1920 to keep its agriculture alive in the face of global competition.

It's side effect is that it protects generates/protects domestic employment.

That is why each politically powerful group wants 3.

@Woof I did some research on why the national debt rose so much under Obama. I had forgotten that a lot of the debt was due to large tax cuts beyond the previous Bush tax cuts, increased defense spending (fighting two wars) and the economic stimulus, which turned out well. Doing this research put things in perspective for me when I hear people saying that Trump's tax cuts are the greatest, etc.

Just little fun facts for Repubs: Total debt increased the most (184%) under Reagan. 3 Republican presidents: Reagan and both Bushes had the fastest growing debt on a yearly basis. Obama's debt grew at a slower annual rate than any of those Republican presidents even though there were events that negatively impacted the deficit before he became president. The commonly used soundbite that the debt "doubled under Obama" is grossly misleading.

Yes it is a regressive tax on the consumer class. It will easily take all that consumers got from the GOP tax cuts - but it will not even cover the costs of the corporate giveaways that were in the tax cut bill. Unfortunately math is not needed when Trump talks to his voters - they are not that good at it either.

The best way to pay down our national debt, or at least balance the budget, would be to join the 21st century and stop preparing for last century’s warfare. Cyber war fare is how to wage and win war on the cheap. Ask Russia, North Korea, and Iran for example. Countries with practically zero GDP! Nuclear wars, even long sustained conventional wars, ie Syria and Afghanistan, are money pits with nothing of value recognizable.
Imagine what our infrastructure could become by using 50% of the defense budget on roads, airports, rail lines, and oh yes, education.

@Susan

Agreed 100%.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but if American consumers are paying 25% or 33% premiums on imports due to tariffs, aren't there at least two possible impacts: 1) American consumers in effect get 25% and 33% tax hikes (which reduces their disposable income to buy more goods) or they switch to cheaper US made goods which don't contribute to the supposed deficit relief from tariffs?

Not to mention the overall impact tariffs have on the economy which could spur a significant recession. Thereby reducing government tax revenue which will increase the deficit.

And how have spending follies like "the wall" going to impact the deficit because of "discretionary" net new government spending increasing that didn't exist before?

If they can't get Trump to release his tax returns then how about his college transcripts because it's obvious that even though he went to Wharton he must have been asleep during the math and economics classes.

@VMG

Considering It's Donald Trump we are talking about,
he most probably paid some less fortunate student
to do the work for him .

Trump has the ability to persuade himself that he is telling the truth even when he makes obviously false statements. But his claim that tariff revenue will pay down the deficit is such an outsized whopper that it can't even be measured on the Pinocchio scale. Wharton education or not, he needs some remedial math.

Trump wants $25 Billion for the wall.

Treasury is working on a way to open the doors and pour more money into the pockets of the top 1%, by rigging Capital Gains taxes.

Trump actually thinks anyone other than his faithful, will buy his latest economic fantasy. And even the faithful may someday see the light.

Conceptually, a tariff is no different than a tax. This is why analysts treat tariffs like taxes. Remember the soda tax? Same difference. As a result of the tariff, soda packaged in aluminum is now more expensive. You're paying a tax on using aluminum. There is no domestic alternative for aluminum either. We don't produce bauxite. Hence, inflation will be broadly distributed across all aluminum products.

However, there's another important point to remember. Not only are tariffs a tax, tariffs are a regressive tax. The burden of increased prices will ultimately fall disproportionately on lower and middle income individuals. A small price increase consumes a relatively larger portion of disposable income. This is why fluctuations in gas prices are so disruptive. The process with tariffs generally begins with small and medium size suppliers who can't burden the additional cost. The cost eventually gets placed on the consumer's door step though.

In summary: Not only did Trump abandon working-class Americans when Paul Ryan was drawing up the new tax code, he's now sticking it too them a second time in the form of regressive tax increases. That minuscule impermanent middle class tax cut? Expect to lose it all to inflation.

Be sure to thank President Trump when you go to the polls this November.

@Andy Small technical issue here that does not in any way contradict your basic point, but there are no tariffs on either bauxite or the intermediate product, alumina, at this point. Of course, US bauxite processing into alumina and smelting of the latter into aluminum has been declining in the US for years, partly due to the energy required in smelting, partly due to environmental regs and partly due to rising rates of recycling. That having been said, we also import about $25 billion of primary aluminum. A 20% tariff on that is, of course, $5 billion. Just enough to build that border wall the Mexico was going to pay for, right?

Side bar not mentioned here, the tariffs are overwhelmingly bottom loaded to fall on the bottom 90%.
Trump and therich elite will bare as a proportion of income far less.
Vegetables, fruit, Car parts, toys ,clothes, houseware, electronics a higher % of spending for the peons.

Of course donnies and his cohorts new Porsche orMercedes goes up too, I cry a tiver for them.

"To get that kind of money from trade policy alone, Mr. Trump would need to impose a more-than 33 percent tariff on $2.34 trillion in imports — which is to say, every single good the United States imported last year."
don't give Trump this kind of ideas...

Thank you for a lucid and straightforward article. But anybody who has completed a high school class in Civics and Economics should be able to do these calculations in his head in about 15 seconds. It is a national embarrassment that many of us can't. Anybody who would assert tariffs will eliminate the budget deficit is lying, mistaken, or engaging in puffery.

Good bye, Middle Class tax cuts. Hello, tax increase for all with tariffs as a side dish.

And who pays? We the people. Hopefully, the experiences of the last three Republican businessmen presidents, Hoover, Junior Bush and Trump, will convince the country never to make that mistake again. But I am not sanguine for that outcome.

Trump's tariff revenue will largely be offset by the subsidies he lavishes on Red state voters who are negatively impacted by his tariffs. In the end, you and I and our children will pay for Trump's fiscal and economic insanity.

A tariff is a tax. Trump has imposed new taxes on the American people without a vote from Congress. How is this constitutional?

@R Kling
Q: "Trump has imposed new taxes on the American people without a vote from Congress. How is this constitutional?"

A: It is constitutional because Congress has abdicated its responsibility:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_Expansion_Act

"The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Pub.L. 87–794, 76 Stat. 872, enacted October 11, 1962, codified at 19 U.S.C. ch. 7) is an American trade law.

Section 232 of the Act under certain circumstances allows the President to impose tariffs based on a recommendation from the U.S. Secretary of Commerce if "an article is being imported into the United States in such quantities or under such circumstances as to threaten or impair the national security."[1] This section has rarely been used,[1] It was used in 1979 and 1982. It had not been invoked since the creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995,[2] until it was invoked by President Trump on March 8, 2018, to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum."

We already have $1.5 trillion in tax cuts for the wealthy thanks to Trump, and that's not to mention another $700+ billion for the Pentagon. What sort of tariff is going to raise that sort of money, unless he starts placing tariffs on his trips to play golf?

This is a man who likes to spend money in public office just as he did in his private life -- and then figure out where the money will come from later.

His solution as a "business man" was to declare bankruptcy from time to time. I suspect that's what will happen for the country before he's done, too.

@avrds...except he hasn't figured out where the money will come from.

I'm confused.

Are you somehow suggesting that President Trump doesn't really understand what he's talking about?

Or possibly that he's even lying?

Hmm, I'll have to start re-thinking how I feel about this "stable genius".