Bok Backline for 2015

Jean has never been able to play well at 13, Meyer tried that in 2012. Having DA at 12 severely limits how well you can set up phases and bring your outside backs into play. The defensive issues I highlighted are significant, and partnering him with JP is looking for trouble. Serf is a far more accomplished and natural 12, but also struggled with concentrated head-on power runners; the kind he will be getting all year at test level. I have serious doubts Jean will be anything like what he was before his injury, but then again the time off may have revitalized him. If he can come back, it's between him and Frans. de Jongh offers alot, but then Serf did a fine job at 13 last year, even if he offered nothing on attack. 

 Letsal
Lets look at the above comments:-
De Villiers at 13
Playing outside Morne Steyn and the equally useless Francois Steyn in 2012 would be a problem for any 13.   Morne was so poor that year that Meyer was forced to drop him - Fat Fransie a flop ever since his return from France.
De Allende at 12
Your campaign against the top center in Super 15 and the top beater of defenders in that tournament is turning more and more into a joke in bad taste - so much so that it is clear that you are a limitless liar in that case.   
Fransie at 12 and De Jonghh at 13
Fransie's defense record is worse than De Allende and in all the matches played in Super 15 he has beaten less defenders than  De Allende has beaten in the game yesterday.   Fransie is brought down easily by the first tackler he meets - it routinely takes two or three defenders to bring down the strongest center in the SH in tackles.
Fransie is slow and is rated near the bottom of the SH list of inside centers - yet he is your choice at 12.  Must be nice for you to be as clueless about center play - as clueless as Fransie is in decisionmaking in that position.
De Jongh against reasonable centers is useless - as was the case against the Rebels and the Brumbies.  He specializes in losing ball possession in tackle situations and in the Brumbies match he missed his standard 25% of attempted tackles.   Not good enough in defense and cannot beat reasonable defenders.  Only speed - but defnitely less than Vorster.


          

 Sharkbok
The WC squad of 32 players  is made up as follows:
Forwards
3 Hookers6 Props5 locks5 loosies
Backline
Meyer  he has to select the following number of  backline players:-
*   2 Full backs - optional 1 player depending on hsi flyhalf selections*   3 wings*   3 centers*   3 flyhalfs*   3 Scrummioes
The above makes a total of 14 players - which is 1 more than the normal 13 in a squad.  So he is likely to cut the squad down by selecting only one specialist full back. 
Wings 
Habana, Combrinck, Pietersen
Watch out for Combrinck of the Lions - he really is making waves and is also a long distance penalty kicker.   Yesterday was no exception - he piled on exceptional performances week after week.
Meyer might select Hougaard as well and limit the number of scrummies to two - thus having a better option at wing and a reasonable one at scrummie.   However, Hougaard has had serious problems in NH conditions and that must always be borne in mind.
Centers
Difficult choice - since there is no clarity as to whether Jean de Villiers is going to be available or not.   I think that Jean might not make himself available if he thinks he is not good enough anymore - he is a very honest guy and would do nothing if he believes it would be to the detriment of the team.
If he is available and matchfit the center combination would be De Villiers, De Allende and Serfontein.
If not - and since Meyer does not like small players at 13 - the combination might be De Allende, Serfontein, Vorster.
Please note that De Allende is in fact a player of colour.
Flyhalfs
I think this is an open and shut case.   Pollard, Lambie and Jantjies.
Problem is that Jantjies goes to pieces at times and I think that he will be selected as a player of colour to be on the bench at times and rarely used.  Too dangerous to be playing him in key matches. 
I do not think after bad performances in 2014 in tests and a perennial bench player for Stade Francais,  Meyer would again select Morne Steyn at flyhalf.   The Perth test showed that Morne is just not a test player.  
Scrumhalfs
Meyer has a problem here.   Although Du Preez is probably his first choice scrummie the question will be will he survive the Rugby Championship tests.  Du Preez has a serious problem of not having played rugby at all since March this year.   That brings into question his actual match fitness and his consequential selectability.
Lets look at the situation over the past years:-
*   In 2012 Meyer wanted Du Preez as captain of the Springbok team - but Du Preez ruled himself out on the basis that he was not matchfit because he was suffering from an injury.
*   In 2013 Du Preez played in 5 tests - the first one for about 15 minutes from the bench against the Argentinians.   That game was a romp and in the 15 minutes Du Preez showed his good side.   He subsequently played in four tests - 2 during the RC and 2 during the EOYT.   In both cases he was good in the first week and questionable in the matches the following week.   The problem is that in Japan teams do not play on a weekly basis but on a fortnightly basis - leaving a question mark as to actual match fitness.
*   In 2014 Du preez took the standard March to June break away from rugby -  played in three matches - showed very little and was then injured in the third match and out of rugby for the rest of 2014.   Since March 2014 Du Preez had played in only 12 matches (inclusive of the three tests berths mentioned).    There is little doubt that lack if fitness was a key contributor to his injury last year and the question remains is it not going to be the same this year.
I doubt not that Meyer will select Du Preez as his first choice scrummie - but then what else.  He is likely to look seriously at Reinach and De Klerk, but may decide against picking three scrummies and leaving Hougaard in the frame.  
The better alternative would be to find a place for De Klerk as well, but we would not know how he would do in NH conditions and that may be a gamble Meyer is unlikely to take.
Conclusion
I may be wrong - but the only uncapped players to have a real chance of selection to the backline could be Combrinck and because of the center situation - possibly Vorster.
Jantjies, De Allende, Habana and Pietersen is likely to be the player of colour selections.                  

   

Lambie and Reinach's EOYT showing was the worst halfback performance I have ever seen from the Boks. Period. I have never seen both halfbacks comprehensively outclassed before. Lambie was the worst 10 of the year by far. Literally offered nothing. Morné did more in the Perth test Lambie lost than Lambie has done in his entire test career. The sad part is that is not an exaggeration. 

 Denny
I am not at all paying attention to what Letsal says.   he is always missing the boat as to player evaluation because of prejudice.
Where  I do agree with you is the inability of the various SA franchises to score tries and that it washes over into the Springbok team as well.  That remains a problem to be fixed - but the question is with whom. 
The players i believe is capable to do that are the players who against strong opposing Super 15 teams this year manage  to score tries regularly and there you find players like Willie le Roux - more quiet this year in Super 15 - but with plenty of try assists, Hougaard (on the wing),  Combrinck,  Vorster, De Allende, Pollard, De Klerk and Reinach.   To that list one can add Habana and Jean de Villiers, based on present and past history.
I can really not see any reason to stick with players who in the past was an obstacle rather than an asset in scoring of tries.   Players like Fransie and Morn are two of those.  As an example since Fransie came back from France in 2012, he actually managed to score only 4 tries - one in the Argentina away test in 2012 when he scored  a charge-down try and three in Super 15.   That is not convincing at all.   Morne is even less effective than that.
The players I mentioned are playing in different teams - maybe by combining them we can get to a solid and enterprising team with try - scoring abilities.
 Incidentally there is one thing I would like to see De Allende improving on is his defense - but he still is statistically a better defender than Steyn.   
 I am looking forward to hearing your point of view on the issue.    

 Mike. I like your pick of players, but you also have a few favorite players and a few pet hates. The whole Stormers backline was on fire last night. Katrakiles had his best game in ages and De Jongh played very well, if you like him or not. Kolisie had a MOM performance, but Kitsie, Koch, Eben Duane and even Kebble when he came on are some of the real heroes this year.

 Draad
I do not like anybody to think that I hate players, but try and think realistically about players - also based on Meyer's potential preferences.   Meyer does not like small backline players and that is detrimental in the case of players like Kolbe and De Jongh.  De Jongh let him down badly in 2012 and since then he was out of Meyer's selection criteria.   
I do not deny that De Jongh had a good game yesterday - but there is a negative, he knocked on and lost ball possession too frequently.  That in a test is going to have dire consequences - so I frankly do not think he would be in the frame.   This was a problem with De Jongh in the past and seems to be recurring.  
I am not in favour of Jantjies - I think as stated that he has a tendency to go to pieces in drung situations.   However, may be very vary of the player of colour situation and if he does not go for Jantjies he is likely to go for Mapoe on the wing.
The problem is that Meyer excluded Francois Steyn from his training camps and Francois is not contracted by SARU anymore.   If his performances this year was anything to go by there is no chance that Meyer will select him.   Despite all the hype  I think he has lost a lot over the past few years - his pace is gone and his  knee problem and weight is not acceptable - since it impacts negatively  on his match fitness and consequently on his performance.
When I am critical of a player is when I believe sincerely that he is not performing well enough and has in the past been problematic.   I also like to punch holes in Mozart and Letsal daydreams about players - which is entirely based on the past of players and not much with the present.             

Denny I maintain that you still had a very easy path to the RWC 2007 playing all the minors then England twice

 Denny
Sure you have a serious point when it comes to the coaches and that remains the first issue to be addressed.   What I cannot understand is that school players and Under 20 players before they get sucked into the various franchises have more ball skills than our senior players.   
I will give you a typical example.  Serfontein was a top ball player when he played Under 20 rugby and that virtually disappeared over the past two years.   There are numerous franchises where the same thing happened to other players.   What is further intriguing is that the smaller franchises like the Lions and the Cheetahs have less problems in scoring of tries and backline attacking play than the bigger ones.  Last year the Cheetahs backline scored more tries than the full teams of the Bulls, the Stormers and the Sharks did.  If you look at the game played by the Lions yesterday I could not see any serious inabilities in their backline either.  Granted Jantjies had a probrem day yesterday - but was still effective in backline play and had more to do with his kicking at goal.
That being said the problem is not with the coaching and performance of the Cheetahs backline - it centers more on the weak Cheetahs forwards, who have been raided by other franchises and lost some of their best players.   The skill set of their backline players are still ahead of those of the big three franchises.
Lets look at the concepts practiced by the other three franchises:-
The Bulls
The problem for years has been summarized by Matfield in his book.  He said backline play was simple for the Bulls - kick the ball and depend on him or Botha to win back the ball in subsequent line-outs.   The other alternative for years has been for the flyhalf to pass the ball to the inside center and he would crashball - when they ten win the ball back the nest step was a kick or another crashball.   
The whole process was made worse because Morne as a rule stood very deep in the pocket and was extremely predictable.  He played strictly in terms of the game plan of the coach.  As it was there was no need for retention and enhancing of the skills of backline players.   
Outside of the flyhalf and with rare exception the inside center, the Bulls lost the capacity to use their full backline.   at one stage said that the Bulls backline play is the grave yard of centers and also wings.   
I think that Pollard is having problems too.  The idea of kicking the ball has been forced into him and I hope he gets over it and return to his normal game.  
The Stormers
The problem with the Stormers backline in 2012 was their inability  to score tries. Nothing has changed since then   Their present backline play is less kicking than was the case in the past.   On backline attacking play the idea is nowadays to get the ball to De Allende in the hope that he would do something with it.
Basically players have had the ball skills they had coached out of them.   That is why for instance yesterday a player like De Jongh lost ball possession 4 times.   The attacking abilities of players are hampered by their small physical size.  Other than De Allende - they lack punch despite their speed.   
Knobel is a wonderful little player with skills and intelligent instinct to boot - but he still is to small a player to play at full back.               The Sharks
The Sharks last year played exactly the game of the Stormers of 2012 and the got unstuck the same way the th Stormers got unstuck in 2012.   There was in 2014 a constant in their game - the players outside of Steyn rarely had to handle balls and in the end deficient coaching and a seriously defective game plan cost them dearly.
This year they were no better and the whole backline scenario was never acceptable.
In essence the problem remains the same - the coaches involved made sure that the ball skills and  intelligent rugby thinking is coached out of players rather then to try and develop their latent balls skills and reading of the game.
Tragic but the above is the case as a result of the major unions using nonentities as backline coaches.   Some of them has less ability to coach since they know less about backline play then the players they are supposed to coach.      
            

Well said there denny....an away RWC win is the higher acheivement.

Wasn't one of their wins when the Boks weren't playing and at home? That sounds like easy street.