Frans Steyn seems to have matured into a more useful player since he last left our shores.

Well - there is nothing new on this site,  We have Mozart -

*   who have been attacking the same players since 2013-14 when they started to pose a selection threat against some of the over-the-hill players he supported;

*    who comes up with incidents in  matches which at best is total misrepresentations of what actually happened and is nothing short of outright lies;

*     who lied about the career of Erasmus to discredit him as a coach - while never criticizing Meyer and Coetzee because they selected duds he supported in games and had his ideal game plans of ten men rugby; and

*      who abuse stat usage by using it in a way nobody else ever do for attacks on individual players.

Then we have the Kindergarten Imbecile  who claims he uses stats as a basis for attacks on Erasmus and in defense of Meyer and Coetzee and for attacks on individual players, and published stats on site which was found to be fraudulent when checked.   Hi s classic was that failed coaches on club level can be successful on  test level. 

No wonder people who had a look at what those two write on site thinks it is a farce,    

Yes, I'm Tired of all this baloney and will continue this in the trumpets looney bin.

Steph has added nothing to the Boks, and Lood continues to be a failure. Both are a hindrance. Lood is slow, immobile and devoid of skills. Were José truly forward-thinking he'd have invested in RG with Eben and moved Mostert to flank. José was very lucky to get away with some very poor selections. We are a one-dimensional team who are too reliant on a small group of players to pick up the slack.  

Kindergarten  \Imbecile 

Erasmus picked special players to win the WC and not the worst WC squad ever like Meyer did  in 2015 ending up with the Japan disaster that year.   Fact is Erasmus's little finger knows more about rugby than the two club fired idiots Meyer and Coetzee combined did and that is why yoou are a sleep\inducing idiot.         

 Mostert starting at lock for the Boks.....14 wins/7 losses....66.66% win ratio.

Dud Toit at flank for the Boks ...12 wins/10 losses....54.5% win ratio.

Game set and match, case closed!!

Who was the coach  that used Mostert to best advantage and then dropped him because he was physically deficient and  also a poor defender as to open-field tackles.    Still busy with statistical abuse BSter?    

I am going to contact a relative of mine Prof  Louis de Jager  - formerly attached to the University of Stellenbosch  and an expert on statistics - and ask him if your usage of statistics to evaluate rugby  player performances is of any value and report back to the board on that one.      

"Mostert starting at lock for the Boks.....14 wins/7 losses....66.66% win ratio.

Dud Toit at flank for the Boks ...12 wins/10 losses....54.5% win ratio."

How can you accurately rate an individual player on team results Mozart...isn't it not a team game with 15 players.

How can you rate Sergio Parisse (one of the best) with Italy's dismal record of 134 tests with 100 losses or Mamuka Gorgodze (one of the best too, in 2011 WC game against AB's got man of the match) Georgia won 64% of their tests, albeit most in tier 2 with only 33% in WC arenas.

Well there are studies on how to do this involving complicated stats. The studies I have looked at suggest there are a few players in key roles that make a difference to team sports results, the rest are largely interchangeable. 

In rugby one would speculate fullback, flyhalf, scrum half, tight head prop and the lineout captain are likely to be those influential players.

But nobody is going to do that sort of analysis, so a crude measure that is worth looking at is a player’s win ratio relative to other players of the same era.  That’s what I have done by including Pollard and Mostert. 

Is it just random that Dud at flank has a much lower win ratio than these two players? Not in my view.

Another consideration  is to look at the opposition for those tests. It turns out 5 of Mostert’s 21 starts were against NZ or 23.8%. For Dud,  5 of his 22 starts were against NZ or 22.7%.

Turning to minnow opposition, 5 of Duds opponents were minnows...Japan 3 times and Italy twice. But only 2 of Mostert’s starts were against minnows, Japan and Canada.

So it appears on average the tests Mostert played were against tougher opponents. And given Dud started in the WC and Mostert mostly played off the bench ....matches one can’t count...Dud has more WC benefit in his numbers.

One has an instinctive feel for players who lift the team....Etzebeth for the Stormers for example. I wouldn’t have put Mostert in that category but his record both for the Boks and the Lions make a case.

At the end of the day Chabal, you can either review film or your can't. All of your answers are there. It's also where I have inflicted the most damage on the Church of Fail that lingers over our sport. Time and time again Steph and Damian are at the scene of problems. We look for key errors, they are there game after game. How many more times do I have to go over the same material before the penny drops? Is capturing a player's entire test season not enough? What do you fan girls have in response? Hollow words. I've challenged the Steph groupies game by game to show me where his great production is, they have never been able to do it. I have shown exactly where and when he fails the team. It isn't hard to do, it only requires honesty. 

You might have some value on the point raised but I think it is not a very strong one...we are talking of the now and into the future. PSDT turned 28 in August 2020 and unfortunately started internationals with a very poor coach Springbok coach, AC. 

It's results now that count and to win the biggest prize and William Webb Ellis Trophy is the highest accolade in rugby. Over analysis can be a delusion. Your approach is a very narrow view in most things...you are either negative or positive and cannot see a wider picture...you and Moz NEVER give credit when it's due.

Going into the future Pieter might prove well how wrong this view point of yours is...the test of your true honesty and integrity, would be...would you recant and then admit your error...I very much doubt it. By the way, how old are you??

Mozart

After reading the above total garbage I will not bother a real statistician with this issue.   Lets get this clear for once and for all.

There are two issues that is clear as daylight and those are -

*   the win-loss history of teams is a norm used universally  to evaluate the performance of COACHES and not individual players; and

*   that to nit\pick players and assign an undue influence causing results is the what I would describe with a designated and  posted recently on site - is SUPER SHIT since rugby is a team game.

So lets look at the real issue of where such stats are used and that is the evaluation of coaches and their roles in team results and the problems they cause are  related to -

*   team selection;

*   team management;

*   actual coaching abilities; and

*    game plans.

We were unfortunate  that we had three Springbok coaches in a  row that ultimately turned out to be unemployable as rugby coaches - as was proved by  their careers after their termination of their Springbok coaching careers.   The contracts of two of the three coaches were not renewed because they failed dismally as coaches  and the third one was fired because of gross incompetence.

Incompetent coaching is what especially Meyer and Coetzee excelled in.   Their team selections was a catastrophe  - for instance the 2015 RWC squad was by a distance the worst squad ever selected by any coach since 1992.   In selection of that squad Meyer's norm were based on reputation and had nothing to do with proven performance of players,   That caused a situation that destroyed the chances of the Springboks to win the Webb-Ellis Cup.    In the squad of 31 players there were in fact 8 players that were unusable  in the competition and when they did play - they were serious liabilities.   To pick players that had played no rugby for up to 18 months before the start of the WC was crazy.

Meyer had no real game plan used in matches in the series other than the Blue Bulls game plan who worked when he was coaching that team on Super Ruby level.   The result was that the scoring of tries became rare and the role of the flyhalf was reduced to kicking at goal and out of hand kicking,    The situation was so bad that he damaged the career and output of players like Pollard badly.    A further problem is that he did not understand the game plan of the Lions - the most successful team on Super Rugby level in SA in 2015 - so he refused to pick any Lions players for the WC squad/

Coetzee was even a worst coach than Meyer was and his results were as bad as Meyer's were in 2014 and 2015.   It was no surprise that he was fired BY SA Rugby halfway through his contract.    His selections were as bad a shambles as Meyer's were - and his game plan was totally nonexistent.   However, losses against Japan and Italy were the result of the shambles  the two coaches  caused.   And the termination of the latter two coaches services were confirmed by what happened in respect of club teams they coached after their stints as Springbok coach,   Both were fired for being grossly incompetent.

Any players who played in the time of coaching by Meyer and Coetaee would have a tarnished career and to keep that against them is  total garbage.  Some players like Vermeulen and  Pollard never played in the period Coetzee was coaching so there  overall record were not tarnished, 

Anyway your usage of stats to attack certain of the players you hate  is just a total dislocation of what stats are there for.   You refer to Mostert as an example of excellence - but Mostert  made a major contribution to scoring of opposition tries because of poor defense and dropped from the starting team after the second similar defensive flop under similar circumstances,  The man is physically deficient and his main  negatives in for instance in the WC final were - 

*   his feeble tackles in the five minutes the English was attacking the Springbok line - when players he did tackle went forward in all cases and had to be stopped from scoring by other players; and

*    roundabout minute 41 in the first half of the final there was a real try-scoring opportunity by the Springboks and unfortunately the ball was passed to him and he spilled it when tackled so he destroyed a promising attack.

Mostert was dropped from the Springbok starting line-up with full justification and will never be in any future Springbok squad again.

This is my final comments on the statistical abuse you are using in this case.              

Kindergarten Imbecile

You look for real errors - but assign imagined errors only to players like De Allende and Du Toit while  ignoring real errors of the players you laud.    There is no level of real performance evaluation you can be accused of - you like Mozart manufacture in you r infantile minds things and then write rubbish on site,     

So let’s examine the matches Dud played at flank for Coetzee and HM. These matches total 6 of his 21 matches at flank.  Of those matches, the Boks won only 1 match.....against Italy, a remarkable stat.

The first loss was against Japan in the 2015 WC. Here are some reviews:

Pieter-Steph du Toit – 5/10

He took the ball forward well, but played exactly like he does at lock. Only takes it forward but hardly ever does the hard yards of clearing and retaining the ball. We simply cannot be playing him at flank and there must surely be better options in Siya Kolisi etc. Given that his selection was rightfully scrutinised, the public did seem to have a point. Some say he needed a game since he hasn’t played in so long, but the fact is he should never have gone to England.

.........

Ougrote: 0/10
Only Meyer knows why he chose a lock at flank when a specialist flank was available on the bench and dozens more were sitting watching at home.

......

Would a proper flank have made a difference? Quite possibly. Next we have the match against England where Dud was bamboozled twice by Youngs . Clearly he was the player who lost the match.

Next we have the NZ test in 2017 at home. Here are my match notes:

The Boks win a penalty, up 17 to 15. They kick out on the ABs 10 metres line. It should be the platform for the Boks to get a grip on the game. A stat flashes up saying the Boks have won 11 of 11 lineouts.....but for only the second time they go to Stephanie who allows his opponent to get ahead of him. The ABs have the ball. One or two phases McKenzie gets the ball....beating Louw on the outside. But Allende is in position to make the tackle. But he is totally beaten for pace as is Stephanie. Six minutes later Allende crshes into the NZ flyhalf 3 steps after he has kicked with an elbow to the head. 

.....

Clearly Stephanie losing that lineout was a direct cause of the loss. 

The other two losses against Ireland and Wales  in the 2017 YE tour. The Irish loss was so wide that no individual player could have made a difference. But against Wales he was again a key figure in the losss. Here are my match notes:

Stephanie looked more comfortable at lock in the second half.....but his turnover, intercepted pass on the Welsh line and penalty really hurt. Nobody can argue he isn’t involved, but he lacks finesse. He conceded a match leading 4 turnovers.

.>>............................

So we can safely say that in 4 out of the 5 losses we sustained under HM and Coetzee with Dud starting at flank, Dud had a direct  hand in the losses.

Japan 2015...England 2016....NZ, Ireland, Italy Wales 2017. So he was playing flank some of the time over 3seasons....if he only started playing better in 2018, he’s a damn slow learner.

Better feather weight than over weight Dave....are you still hitting the gym?

We need a leader who can unite the country, but there is no such person. It’s all a bit third world.

You are right on this point Ol'Maaik. We have lost and destroyed so much ability talented players due to this overall point alone, let alone the political aspect as well. The trouble is they cannot see the wood for the trees.

" the win-loss history of teams is a norm used universally  to evaluate the performance of COACHES and not individual players; and

*   that to nit\pick players and assign an undue influence causing results is the what I would describe with a designated and  posted recently on site - is SUPER SHIT since rugby is a team game.

So lets look at the real issue of where such stats are used and that is the evaluation of coaches and their roles in team results and the problems they cause are  related to -

*   team selection;

*   team management;

*   actual coaching abilities; and

*    game plans. "

You are a cop out Chabal. In 2015, when Damian was dubbed best 12 after single-handedly tanking the Aussie test, should we ascribe blame to the coach alone? Or to the rest of the team? He blew assignments that directly contributed to tries and other try scoring opportunities, including the very last game winning try. When Steph blows assignments as a primary rusher, which puts points on the board for the opposition, does it not mean he is having a significant negative contribution? Some players have more responsibilities than others, some just end up having more impactful influences irrespective of volume. I blame coaches for not responding to that, but ultimately, individual shortcomings are to be taken into consideration. Do Steph and Damian live up to the hype? No. Do they deserve their reputation? No. Both were lauded before they ever achieved a thing and have been living in the shadow of their reputation ever since. It says a lot when the opposition target these players. They may pay tribute with the lips, but on the field, they target these players. Saffers pretty much never see it, never learn.

Mozart

You really are a weak-minded and idiotic individual when it comes to players.  You gave Du Toit a rating in the Japan disaster in 2015 - aso what was the ratibngs of the shot individuals that really lost the game?

There were total disaster in the team and no loosie sitting on the bench.   Alberts was selected as the loosie in that test and because he was still suffering from the fat tear that kept him out of rugby for 16 months before the WC he was replaced the day before the test with Du Toit that in three years senior rugby never played as a loosie. 

So get your facts straight - unfortunately the worst loosie that day was Burger with his four ball knock-ins when instead of the ball being passed to the flyhalf - was first receiver  of th ablls in terms of the crazy Meyer game plan. 

You are indeed an easy target when your wrote BS on site - grow up and start thinking before you pollute the Board.          

Kindergarten Imbecile  

Fact is it is idiots like you who never learned and besides that knows zero  about rugby,   Let me not go into your history on site and the fact that you and Mozart are  close competitors in the Rugby Stupidity Stakes.   

Kindergarten Imbecile  

Fact is it is idiots like you who never learned and besides that knows zero  about rugby,   Let me not go into your history on site and the fact that you and Mozart are  close competitors in the Rugby Stupidity Stakes.   

Grow up AO.

If it works…don’t try and fix it.

Biggest WC Final win…what on earth… do you expect more?

Rugby is a team game, wasn’t PSDT part of the team or not?

Do positive results matter, not your or any  other personal views?

Accept your argument is weak and based on flimsy notions of your fragile ego. If you are proven later, the folly of your PSDT rants would you admit it. Ego is a sign of immaturity. Humility is the opposite.

It’s futile and tiresome and indeed childish.

Don’t teach your grandmother to suck eggs as you might end up with a lot of it on your fizzog.

Yeah it appears so.

https://youtu.be/C77K6GlWK8k

All old Mike does is fulminate and hurl insults, he never, ever actually successfully contradicts an argument. The post I made above on Dud’s role in 5 of 6  losses under HM and Coetzee is not contradicted and stands  with clear verifiable incidents and third party opinion. 

The ability to think independently is all that distinguishes us from the unthinking mob....Augie can think independently, Mike can’t even think.

I want to quote the following and show up a real situation:- 

"....he never, ever actually successfully contradicts an argument". 

How does one argue when you base your comments on statistical abuse and misrepresentations and present no debatable points to argue about?     

I want to quote the following and show up a real situation:- 

"....he never, ever actually successfully contradicts an argument". 

How does one argue when you base your comments on statistical abuse and misrepresentations and present no debatable points to argue about?     

How would you know statistical abuse Mike....I have a PhD minor in quant including statistics, you have a career in provincial government.....best you leave statistics to those who understand them.

Mozart

I will be blunt - a few years ago I had a discussion with two present Springboks and with Rob Louw and raised some of the comments you and AO comes up on site  and the three asked me where I got the issues I mentioned from.

Being embarrassed because they might think it came from me I said they are issues discussed  n a rugby forum I am a member of,   They just laugh and said the topics I raised with them were stupid and suggested that I join a forum where logical and factual rugby issues are discussed.

Now to the statistical issue you used in this case.  I thought of discussing it with a real expert since the system is routinely used worldwide in all codes of team sport to evaluate  for evaluation of coaches and never used by experts for any other purpose - ad especially  not ffor evaluation of individual players - like you try to do at present.   For the latter there are detailed evaluation programs used for Rugby where detailed information of every player in every game are dealt with - ESPN  is only providing rudimentary info which people can perhaps use to determine trends in player performances - for detailed evaluation much more is needed than ESPN provides,  

Mozart I also have Statistics II as a subject and that is enough to know that statistics should NEVER be used for a purpose it was not designed for.    When that happens it entails statistical abuse.   I thought of asking two  reputable retired professors from Stellenbosch University and the University of SA their opinion  on the usage of the stats the way you did,   After reading what you said  I decided  not to - since they may think it came from me and not from this site,   I do not think I want to make people think I am a fool in asking stupid questions. 

Okay you ‘have’ statistics .....what’s the difference between a one sigma  and a two sigma confidence level. That’s basic, first year at university stuff.....tell us.

Why are you coming with that one - completed my studies 50 years ago and has not been using detailed statistics since then - but then I still remember basic principles as to usage of stats and those you seem to abuse using stats designed for a specific use and change it for use for entirely different scenarios,  That basic principle I have applied all my career long. 

Anyway I can contact the two professors - but decided against it because they would think I should no better than to approach them for comment on a basic principle of stat usage,        

You remember nothing if you can’t answer that question.....best to just keep quiet about statistics.