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FORUM / RUGBY /  Grant Nisbett: Quarter-final preview; NZ Herald

Grant Nisbett: Quarter-final preview; NZ Herald

Started by Just_win2 REPLIES155 VIEWS· 14 Oct 2015, 06:55
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JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
14 Oct 2015, 06:55
#1
14 Oct 2015, 06:55#1

The opening quarterfinal game features South Africa and Wales at Twickenham on Sunday morning (NZT).

The Springboks have recovered remarkably well from their shock defeat to Japan and in a strange sort of way the loss of captain Jean de Villiers has helped their cause. It's meant that Heyneke Meyer has been able to comfortably select his young tyros Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel in midfield without the embarrassment of leaving out the skipper.

It'll be brutal up front and few teams in the world can match the Boks in that area although Wales, despite their dreadful injury concerns, have fronted physically in all the games that matter at this tournament. Tight but the Springboks should advance.

It's been done to death already and I imagine there's still more to come - New Zealand against France at the Millenium Stadium in Cardiff.

If you are a believer that history repeats itself then there's little point in even watching.

Eight years ago many of the current All Black team were teenagers with a passing interest in the World Cup and the result of that infamous match has little or no meaning for them when it comes to this weekend.

Sure, there'll be memories for the likes of Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Steve Hansen, but they are rightly focusing on what they can control and that's beating what looks like a pretty average French outfit. France showed virtually nothing against Ireland and I'm not sure there's anything more to show. Brave words I know.

Monday's two quarterfinals start in Cardiff with Ireland against Argentina and this is a really tough one to nail.

At full strength I would have little hesitation in going with the Irish but the loss of so many key players last week could cause the tide to turn dramatically towards the South Americans.

There is World Cup history between these two nations with Argentina knocking Ireland out of the 2007 tournament, on their way to finishing a meritorious third, and the Pumas are looking ominous again. There is clear evidence that four seasons in the Rugby Championship has lifted their standard to a new level and this year's win over the Boks in Durban very much emphasises that point.

They troubled the All Blacks at Wembley earlier in the tournament and although Ireland will bring their traditional heart and resolve to the battle, those key injuries might prove to be the difference.

The final match looks the easiest one to predict with the Wallabies looking too good across the board for Scotland.

Australia, with wins over both England and Wales in successive weekends, come into this Twickenham game as the in-form side at the tournament. Those two wins were achieved in very different ways and it showed that Michael Chieka has options as he contemplates further advancement at this tournament and don't forget that both of the Wallaby World Cup wins have been won in this part of the world.

Scotland were average against a Samoan team that had a disappointing tournament and any repeat of that effort, particularly in defence, will see them blown out of the water and sent packing up the M1.

JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
14 Oct 2015, 07:07
#2
14 Oct 2015, 07:07#2
 Some are picking Argentina against Ireland - this author does. For sure Ireland has more injuries. Argentina are playing some very good rugby. I picked Ireland by 5 but am thinking of changing this to an Argie win. Losing O'Brien, Se*xton & O'Connell didn't help Ireland's cause. 
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
14 Oct 2015, 07:24
#3
14 Oct 2015, 07:24#3
 I can go along with the discussion raised above - but the quarters are lottery tickets where everything is possible - bar in the Aussie-Scts game where if the Aussies lose it would be the rugby joke of the century.    The latter is just not possible.
The Welsh must guide against the Springboks having too much running space.  They came critically short last year when they allowed that to happen and the Springbok backline this time around is from an attacking perspective much stronger than it was last year.   The Springbok Tight 5 is a vast improvement on what happened last year - especially of as reported Matfeld and Jannie du Plessis is out.
Although logic does not necessarily lead to a result prediction I think the outcome would be by a wider margin than most people imagine probably in the vicinity of 15 to 18 points.
For many. many years I have believed that the outcome of matches depends on "which French team turns up for the game".   The champion team could be the one day and the poor one in the next match.   o who cn predict what the French are going to be.  The AB;s have a winning record against them - but nobody could know what really is possible.  My guess is an AB win - but I would not be surprised if it the other way around. 
Looking at the way in which the Argentinians play and their improvement in performances  during the WC - as well as the player losses by the Irish - I think a win by the Argentinians will be the outcome - a narrow win - but a win nontheless,
Easy passage for the Aussies - would not say the winning margin will be smaller than 18 to 20 points.
It is quite possible that the WC would change into finalization of the  RC on neutral grounds in 2015.            .          
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