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Semi-Final Predictions

Started by DezertFox26 REPLIES596 VIEWS· 19 Oct 2015, 06:18
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DE
DezertFoxPro2,288 posts
19 Oct 2015, 06:18
#1
19 Oct 2015, 06:18#1
South Africa v New Zealand
I am basing this prediction on our lock issues and our questionable centre pairing. The last game between these two saw the Boks dominate New Zealand, and that was mainly due to a fetching loose trio led by Brussow, who totally disrupted New Zealands flow on possession. They don't have that option this time around. So I think that'll work in New Zealand's favour. Whilst I don't think New Zealand are perfect, they do still possess greater power and skill in the midfield; they can play a few combinations and have a lot of variation now that Nonu is coming back into form. The Boks will need to dominate the set pieces and win the territory battle and then impose their physical dominance. I don't know how the Boks will do all these, they have not been good with tactical kicking outside of Du Preez and though they are looking much more secure under the high ball, New Zealand's 14 is looking very dominant here and that sets them up quite nicely - they tortured France at restarts and high balls. Whilst New Zealand do undoubtedly have these advantages they looked to have a glass jaw on defence. On the rare occasion that France pressured them defensively they looked bereft of ideas, one time being caught several metres backwards and run back to their 22m line. They looked vulnerable around the fringes early in the second half. It's clear that if you give New Zealand time on the ball they will pick you off like a cold blooded marksman shooting fish in a barrel. The Boks must find a way to pressure them and make, and whoever plays 13 must seal them off. You can forget about the French test, this one is going to be a battle of wills. The Boks are underrated on attack though, but they will need to be more clinical and protect the ball better. Overall, I think in a close game, New Zealand have the greater composure to take their chances. They will finally expose the lack of experience of the Boks and win 17-22.
Argentina v Australia
Australia look to be back to where they were last November: lethal on attack but leaky in defence. Argentina lead the competition in offloads and do look threatening ball in hand. They will need to watch their discipline, but they have all the tools to trouble Australia and really pressure their attack. Whilst I believe Argentina have a genuine shot at winning this game, playing Australia at their game is rarely a good idea. Australia to win 22-35.
A final of Australia and New Zealand. I think Australia will ultimately win it, having the experience and complete game to expose New Zealand's creeking core. 
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Oct 2015, 07:50
#2
19 Oct 2015, 07:50#2
 DF
There are a few points where I agree with you and a few where I would like to add to what you wrote.  In essence I think the game could be close - but there are ifs and buts that could result in a much bigger loss. 
In the first instance we must guard against selections that could impact negatively on the forwards and here in particular make sure that the best Tight 5 combination is on the field of play.   Put Matfield into the Tifgt 5 and our competiveness will go diwn th drain.   
The game plan used on Saturday against Wales will be a recipe for disaster so a different plan needs to eb in place.    
The AB's will use the same tactic as the Welsh did effectively on Saturday - kick pin-point accurate attacking kicks and on Saturday we went to pieces when that happened.   
As you stated - based on the past years results in games between the AB's and the Springboks it could be close.  
*   The Springboks could have won the Wellington test last year - bar a foul up by Matfield in the penultimate line up in the game.  The score was 14-10 in favour of the AB's and instead of taking a throw-in cleanly and setting up a driving maul 5 meters out - Matfield fumbled the ball and the opportunity fizzled out.
*    The Springboks won in the Ellis Park test by 2 points - but a loss by the Springboks was on the cards after a line--out loss on own throw when Whitelock beat  Matfield and the AB's scored a try as the result.   A late penalty 55 meters out by Lambie saved their bacon in that test.
*    The saving grace for the AB's in the latest test was the fact that both Tight heads were injured and uncontested scrums were introduced at a vital stage during the game.
I am not going to make a forecast on the outco me before the teams have been announced - but I would at this stage say the outcome could be 55:45 in favour of the AB's.     

      
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
19 Oct 2015, 07:52
#3
19 Oct 2015, 07:52#3
 You are probably right, but I'm still entertaining the dream. Both SA and Argie sneaking  into the final by the skin of their teath!
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
19 Oct 2015, 08:33
#4
19 Oct 2015, 08:33#4
 I make no predictions until I see our team sheet. We need Lood and Bissie.
Frankly I would also want to know if Meyer intends palying 1987 bulle rugby or not as well.
Do not be surprised if Argies beat OZ. Their performance against Ireland has been the best of the tournament thus far.I cant get excited about the nz win against the hapless Frogs. They looked worse than the worst minnows.
DE
DezertFoxPro2,288 posts
19 Oct 2015, 08:45
#5
19 Oct 2015, 08:45#5
 I'm leaving my prediction now as I will be too Busy to discuss the game for the rest of the year. So it's goodluck Boks and Argentina and may the games be fairly reffed. 
CA
carpetmuncherPro1,667 posts
19 Oct 2015, 09:18
#6
19 Oct 2015, 09:18#6

 I agree with the sentiments gents only difference being that I don't see the margins that low.....expect a first half barrage of Meyer's ultra conservative approach of aimless bad kicking to the attacking machine of the all blacks. we will keep it close in the first half but as tired bodies start to set in from defending for 80% of the game the all blacks will sneak in a few tries I recon its  15 to 20 point margin...


meyer to come home and hopefully resigns.

MO
MonsterBokClub Pro442 posts
19 Oct 2015, 09:26
#7
19 Oct 2015, 09:26#7
Muncher,I hope to God you are wrong, but I think your'e on the money because Meyer is so capable of kicking it down the throats of the attacking machines that the AB's are. There is little doubt that we will see a different approach from Meyer, the only hope is that FDP accuracy it much better than poepol Pienaar and that we actually apply preasure.  
JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
19 Oct 2015, 09:44
#8
19 Oct 2015, 09:44#8
 ABs are taking the semi-final game very seriously as they know these games have always been tough. 
Even when the ABs have run up a decent score on the Boks it has often been the result of building on one very effective play / at a critical moment. This may not always happen and we  are left slugging it out in a tough game. I will wait until the teams are announced but this is by no means a forgone conclusion.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Oct 2015, 10:05
#9
19 Oct 2015, 10:05#9
 JW 
I will start a thread on Thursday and update DF's prediction as part of the thread.Am not going to say anything before the teams are announced.   
AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
19 Oct 2015, 10:55
#10
19 Oct 2015, 10:55#10
 nor South Africa nor Australia deserve to be in the semis.

SA have played crap with an archaic gameplan, lost to a minnow like Japan and very fortunately win the QF against a depleted Wales in the last minutes thanx to a inexcusable defensive mistake of Warburton (yeah, the same who buried the welsh options in the 2011 semi against france thanx to his tip tackle).
When his main (and probably only) task at blindside in that scrum should have been being awaiting an attack from his side, he was so incomprehensiblily slow that allow FdP's try. Otherwise FdP would have been easily carried out of the field.

Australia is there only thanx to ref mistakes which is quite sad having the technology to avoid it.

But none will get to the final. The AB are going to win easily this one, no matter who Meyer field. The SA problem is not about selecting the best players avalaible, it's about their antedilluvian gameplan which will be buried this WC by the total-rugby played by the AB, Argentina and Australia. The AB by more than 40.

Argentina will beat also the aussies but this time it will be closer. If Poc0ck and Folau recover in time, which is what is expected but we'll have to wait to confirm, the aussie game hugely improves. They are too dependant on this 2 players. The margin will depend on the fitness of both .

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
19 Oct 2015, 11:13
#11
19 Oct 2015, 11:13#11
 Basque, how can you say Aus and the Boks don't deserve to be in the semmies? Both won their pools and both won their quarters. Ugly, yes, but they still won....and it would have been less tight if we didn't miss fairly regulation penalties. I am very disappointed that Scotland did not make it in the end and yes, I also think that penalty was a mistake, but the Scots did stuff up their own lineout and Aussie is the better team if you look at the big picture.
Go BOKKE!!!!.....GO ARGIEEEEEE!!!!!!
3K
3ku1Pro2,580 posts
19 Oct 2015, 11:31
#12
19 Oct 2015, 11:31#12
 Nah Boks deserve their place, came back from the Japan loss to be where they are now. But unfortunately I don't think it is enough. Both SA and Aussie to me look tired, and very deficient. I think Nonu and Smith this time around well expose De Allende and Kriel. Boks well challenge abs, but won't go the distance. NZ supieor fitness and conditioning well see them home by about 15. I think the same in the OZ ARG game, im picking Argentina. if Folau and Pocock start, then Aussie.
BL
BlikkiesPro1,526 posts
19 Oct 2015, 12:10
#13
19 Oct 2015, 12:10#13

Very hard to make  prediction, but at this stage I fancy NZ to win against the Boks. Lood has injured his foot and rumours have it that Matfield will be back. This will weaken our scrum.

 

AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
19 Oct 2015, 12:14
#14
19 Oct 2015, 12:14#14
 What have the boks done during this WC?
Firstly, lost to Japan. This speaks by itself.
Then win confortably against the most horrendous Samoa I can remeber. The Samoans weren't coached and weren't a team. Thankfully their coach has stepped down today.
And then beat a Scotland B-side, a USA B-side and a Wales C-side. While the 2 first were easy wins (of course!) the win against the Welsh C-side wasn't untill the last minutes, thanx only to a flagrant defensive mistake of Warburton and the game displayed by the boks was ugly, archaic and very predictable.
Yeah, they won and this is why they are in semis but they have done nothing to deserve it.

MO
moolaaPro2,380 posts
19 Oct 2015, 12:18
#15
19 Oct 2015, 12:18#15
 Boks need to fly out of gates, build a handy lead and hang on for dear life after 35 mins. ABs at their most dangerous last 5 mins of 1st half when Bok starters begin running out of puff. Vastly superior AB bench will mean last 20 will be tough for Boks to keep ahead. Either way probably no more than 5 points in it. Complacency a big issue for ABs after stroll vs Frogs. Arg scrum might make life difficult for Oz. Anyone's game there!
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
19 Oct 2015, 12:21
#16
19 Oct 2015, 12:21#16
 Erm, if you make it through the pool stages and win the QF, you deserve to be there. Wales did nothing more to deserve a place ahead of us, and neither did Scotty. Unlucky in the end, but that's sport...and life.
BL
bluebokPro3,977 posts
19 Oct 2015, 12:28
#17
19 Oct 2015, 12:28#17
Final will be Aus vs NZ! Boks will run the AB's close, because their style of play suites knockout rugby, but in the end the AB's have the mental edge over the Boks and the better bench. We have all been taken up by the Argies and I'd love for them to get one over the Aussies, but I don't see that happening. Aus are too good, and their close result yesterday against Scotland also had a lot to do with the wet conditions. Rain is the great equalizer in rugby!
 
DE
DezertFoxPro2,288 posts
19 Oct 2015, 12:33
#18
19 Oct 2015, 12:33#18
Basque, the Boks have played tougher opponents than New Zealand and have played better with the exception of that Japan test with a very vulnerable lineup.
But you must till be hurting after I said NZ are beatable. In your mind the All Blacks roasted a French side who played well. Then I dare to say otherwise and you lose your mind. One of those raw nerved All Black fans. We have them too, namely Saffex. Only he has it backwards, he attacks every coach we have and anyone who dares suggest anything good about the Boks. I 
I will say though, in spite of the large number of soft tries scored, the one off the midfield scrum was very good. I thought the French still could have done better, but still, it was excellent. But the rest? Frances' plan on defence didn't exist. 
The All Blacks have the advantage in terms of experience but to write the Boks off entirely is just plain ignorant. On any given day any side could win that game.
AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
19 Oct 2015, 12:48
#19
19 Oct 2015, 12:48#19
 @Df,

"But you must till be butthurt after I said NZ are beatable."

Have this very clear, I don't give a toss what you say. You are a waste of time. Werent you "too Busy to discuss the game for the rest of the year"?

AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
19 Oct 2015, 13:05
#20
19 Oct 2015, 13:05#20
  @Dbdraad,

"if you make it through the pool stages and win the QF, you deserve to be there"

we have a diferent points of view about what "deserve" means. IMO one thing is what happened (the boks "make it through the pool stages and win the QF") and other diferent is if they deserved to be there or not.
Anyway, the boks are there deservedly or not.

@bluebok

yeah, the weather conditions will be crucial for the semis and especially the Boks-AB game. If it rains the game will be a lot more closer, let see,....
about the ausies I don't see them that strong. It will be crucial for them the fitness of Poc0ck and Folau. They are too dependant on these 2 players.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Oct 2015, 13:12
#21
19 Oct 2015, 13:12#21
ABF 
My Friend I often agree with what you wrote, but - with respect _ I have to differ from you here,   Since 2012 the AB's have regularly beaten the Springboks - but never by a margin of more than 14 points.  The last three meetings was a win by 4 points, a loss by 2 points and a win by 7 points.  The AB's was lucky in the last game since the uncontested scrum benefit them very much.  
I think that the AB's should win - but not by a margin wider than 10 points.   I give them a 55% chance of winning the game - but stranger things have happened in the WC in the past and I for one - after being bitten badly by the Aussies last night - is not going to take a bet on the outcome in the AB- Springbok match on Saturday.
After the near disaster of the Aussies yesterday I hope and pray the Argentinians beat them on Sunday.         
DE
DezertFoxPro2,288 posts
19 Oct 2015, 13:15
#22
19 Oct 2015, 13:15#22
 I'm here for the day sweety, so any time then woud be good. 
SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
19 Oct 2015, 13:20
#23
19 Oct 2015, 13:20#23
A big fat YAWN to DumFox......I gave up on that load of crud after the opening sentence.......given we have the best lock and centre combo in the WC  
DE
DezertFoxPro2,288 posts
19 Oct 2015, 13:24
#24
19 Oct 2015, 13:24#24
Well, that's your opinion Dave, but this will be another step up for Damian and kriel. Damian stood up to Wales well enough though he had little defending to do. Kriel went awol. Nonu and Smith, alongside Smith will present another challenge as they will really stretch their reads and technique. I think Damian has done well up to this point but will be exposed this time. If Kriel starts he is toast. Serf will be much better.
SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
19 Oct 2015, 13:30
#25
19 Oct 2015, 13:30#25

Um the last time DA and Kriel faced Nonu and Smith, our youngsters outplayed them.......do you need me to bring up those stats again.......it could not have been more one sided......so why on earth would I not back them....its a no brainer


DA is better than old man Nonu and Kriel is far better than Smith who appears well and truly past it.......just look at his contribution against France......it was a joke considering the nature of the game  

AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
19 Oct 2015, 13:36
#26
19 Oct 2015, 13:36#26
 @mike,

you are very right stating that the lasts AB-Boks games have been close. The only point could be that it's since 2010 that the AB have beaten the boks regularly, not 2012. In 2010 the AB beat the boks 3 times and in 2011 once, the only time they played that year.

And according to the latest experience a close game should be expected but I've the feeling that the antedilluvian gameplan played by the boks (and in another degree by the europen teams) will be buried once and forever this WC. And the easy and ample win of the AB will be what definetively will bury it. B eing the weather the only external factor that could delay the unstoppable.

but it's just a feeling,...
AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
19 Oct 2015, 14:09
#27
19 Oct 2015, 14:09#27
 According to the diferent weather prediction sites, on wednsday it will rain in London but since then till the sunday clouds and sun are expected but no rain.
It's too soon yet, weather predictions for more than 3 days are not yet very accurate, but it seems that we won't have rain which is an excellent news for the AB.
— END OF THREAD —

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