South Africa v Wales Prediction

I won't be here until after the game (will try be back before the end of tournament) so I will leave my prediction now. Despite my concerns about our centres I'll back the Boks to take it 24-16. Not a pretty game, but a grind with ascendency up front. If Lambie is on the bench, if he comes on... then god help us all! Lets not get into that. 

20 - 15 to the Boks, it's going to be a nervy game I suspect. I;m both excited and nervous as feck. 

 Likewise! I think this could be a harder game than a showdown with New Zealand to be honest. Wales are on an upward curve. We will need to be brutal up front and from there take our chances. 

It deends entirely on Meyer's team selection and game plan.  If we select a player like Matfield as a lock and get sucked into playing around the fringes - the standard Welsh game - we would never win that game.  If we play a wider game and dominate in the Tight 5 - we will win.  
The story about Roberts and North being excellent defenders has been rubbished as well.  Both looked rather sick in the second test  last June when Serfontein beat Roberts by the greatest of ease in at least one case and North missed more tackles than he made.  The SA center combination last year was weaker than the one now - so it could be a major problem.
I will not make a prediction on this one until I see what Meyer comes up with insofar as team selection is concerned.  Jannie, Alberts and Matfield and the Welsh will win by 9 points at minimum .   Otherwise it will definitely be a win by SA.      

Roberts ran over Serfontein, totally dominated him. I believe it was North who ran over Serfontein for a try, like Kuridrani did to Damian. 
I must ask, how do you suppose we play a wide game? Did you not watch the Aussie test against Wales? Did you not see how Wales cut them down? Does it seem that playing wide has a high risk of dangerous turnover ball. It gets better, you also don't want any kicking, so you expect the Boks to literally run it up the field. Very dangerous Michael, very dangerous to say the least. Wales are going to come at you with immense line speed, they shutdown the outer channels expertly, and their 13 is an outstanding edge defender, lighyears better than Kriel. And that means Damian and Pollard are going to have to fight for every inch! Meyer has been using Damian to attack the seems off first phase of late, but as we saw against Scotland in the second half, he faded when they upped their intensity. This means we are not going to be able to play through the centres. Willie coming into the line to work a loop or wrap around move and chips will be important in getting around and over that monstrous defensive line. We will need to protect the ball in contact and continue to punch it up the middle and dominate there. First and foremost the Boks must rock up and dominate Wales physically. Thankfully we have two outstanding wings who are strong, tough and intelligent. Our halfbacks and back three are our on ly hope.

 DF
Daydreaming again by all accounts.  I watched the game and saw some really disturbing things.  The Aussies got sucked into the Wales game plan and could not succeed.   They were trying to attack too much around the fringes and unlike their normal games ran straight at defenders,  The Aussie center paring was dismal - like they were in other tests as well.  Your rating of Kuridrani as a top center was as per normal delusional. - he thus far in the WV was very, very average.
Lets get into specifics, insofar as Roberts is concerned.  In teh first Welsh last year - Roberts beat 4 defenders,  Two of those case was when he ebat Morne - which is the easiest thing in world rugby to do.  He beat Serfontein once and Pietersen once.  Neither Roberts nor Serfontein in that test made a line break - or even one remotely resenbling such a break.  In the second test last year in June, the  vase was again that Roberts did not rn at Serfointein - but ran straight at Pietersen at 13 and wemt through him like a knife through butter.  He enver dminated cert\fiten as stated by you.
Your description about domination is correct - but that would only happen if the right players are selected - and those do not include the three players I mentioned.
Insofar as De Allende is concerned - I would lay a bet he would do to Roberts what he did to Nonu, SBW and Fat Fransie earlier this year.   Break past him in making line breaks. putting the team on the front foot.   
As to Le Roux's involvement - oit is very relevant - but would not happen if he does ot get the ball - like happened in tests thius far this year.  The Welsh will not kick balls in such a way that he would have space to operate - so he will have to eb first or second ball receiver.   Drawing in the wings into the game will also require a wider game plan,   Attacking around the fringe - using Burger as first receiver will never work.
Have a nice trip and come back a wiser and better person after gaining some basic knowledge of the game of  rugby.              

Michael lying yet again. Tell me what happened when Australia took the ball wide? You won't be able to so I'll tell you. Wales were very quick to catch them behind the gainline! They were also rushing quickly on the outside - with outside leverage on the attackers - forcing Australia back inside. That's the whole point of their defensive system! But then you come up with the bright idea to force wide passes and run, risking turnovers. 
Wales defend with their 9 and openside wing in the line. The entire backfield is protected by 15. This is the weak point of their defence. They have a ferocious rush, but they have space in behind. Hence why I said that we should have some tactical kickers on hand. We need physicality in our carries because we are going to struggle to pull enough defenders to create space out wide. The alterative is to beat the edge defender cleanly. Risky. We'll need some kind of loop play or something. Do you think our backs have the skill for that? If it fails we'll be caught well behind the ruck. Penalty and we give up field position or points. This is why I said we will struggle against Wales.

DF 
You are hilarious.  First lets get to Kuridrani.    I don't think you got to see enough of him in Super 15.  He was at best above average in Super 15 all year long - rarely above that in performance.   After seeing him putting in a good display against two newbies in The Assie test - he in your book suddenly became the best 13 in world rugby and Toomua the best 12.   Cheika obviously preferred Giteau to Toomua.   However, in the WC thus far this year the weak link of the Aussie team was consistently their center combination.  Even when the rest o the team dominated - the center combination was very. very average.  
On Saturday the Assies face two problems.  They got sucked into the Welsh game plan trying to attack with their loosies around the fringes - or when they tried to go wide the only players who showed some punch was Folau, Ashley-Cooper and Mitchell.  Like in the other WV tests the centers were against stronger teams under par.  
Be it as it may - the Aussies showed us how the game against Wales should be played and what I said was very - very true.  Dominate them in the Tight 5 (so no Matfigild and pregferably also no Jannie and Alberts) - thus forcing their loosies to play tighter rugby and beat them by using our backline better.  
De Allende has not danced around the centers mentioned - otherwise Fat Fransie would not end up on his a r s e on the grass behind him - neither did he do that to Nonu and SBW.   Rhodes is not in the class the latter two is - so he will and can be handled by De Allende.   North is routinely playing on the wing - where there has been question marks about his defense - and on Saturday he had a toothless player playing opposite him.   Kuridrani is slow off the mark and has to work up steam and that helps defenders.  Once he is at pace he is a strong ball carrier - but he showed zero in Super 15 this year because opponents neutralized him too early.
I do not rank De Allende and Kriel as the Best center combination in the world.   I think they have some way to go to get better in play co-ordination and cut out their problems in defense - it is slowly getting better - but they need fuirther tests and playing together to reach that objective.   De Allende on his own is already near to be the best in the world - but as he said himself he is still on a learning curve and will improve still further.  Wait another year and we will see what happens to those two players.                
        

We should take Wales by 7 or more. I'd say 12. For thereafter:
Well Moz is on record for saying we can't win the RWC with the current center pairing...and I think DF agrees. I'd say our chances are about the same as before, but would be a bit better if Matfield play's from the bench. We have about a 35% chance of getting past NZ. If we do and have to face either Ireland or Aus in the finals? 40% Aus. Ireland, with the injuries the had, about 50%, so it was more than a safe bet by Moz to say we won't win the RWC with those centers....I'm still hopeful  though.

If Matfield is selected ahead of Lood we will lose  

 DB Deaad
We will see next week if things work out and we have to play the AB's in the semi.  Provided Meyer made the right selection I m more worried to play the French in teh semi than I would be playing the French.  The reason I say that is that our bench was poor in the AB game and Meyer's usage of the bench was wrong as well.   We lost against the AB's in the last 10 minutes of the match in the RC.  With the right selection and bench usage our chances against the AB's would be enhanced - especially since the AB's seems to suffer from WC Disease.
If we have to play the AB's in the semi - I would say our hances of beating them would be very close to 50:50.   But both teams must still get past the quarters and the proviso is that Matfield and a few others should be nowhere in sight.                

clevermike
 
Status: Hall Of Fame 
Posts: 19970RE: South Africa v Wales Prediction
October 12, 2015, 03:29:53

I will not make a prediction on this one until I see what Meyer comes up with insofar as team selection is concerned.  Jannie, Alberts and Matfield and the Welsh will win by 9 points at minimum. 

Otherwise it will definitely be a win by SA.      

So Mike, if any of these players come on as a sub, do we lose?, or only if they play the full 80 min, which you know they won't................ yes or no?.
Let's be very specific here please, since it is the quarters........
Saffex
 
Status: Hall Of Fame 
Posts: 13920RE: South Africa v Wales Prediction
October 12, 2015, 13:21:11

If Matfield is selected ahead of Lood we will lose 

Dave, same question as above,
If Matfield starts and Lood comes on later off the bench we lose?  But if Lood starts and Matfield subs him later from the bench, you are happy with that, and we win?. 

Other than that, you are ok with whatever side then?

Boks by 8

DA
Matfield is a malady in the team - whether he starts or whether he comes from the bench.  He is supposed to be a lock and perform together with the other Tight 5 players, which he never does.   I would start with Loo d and Eben and put Du Toit on the bench.  We need Tight 5 supremacy or at least competitiveness to win in any play-off game.  Without that we are goners.        

Stephanie is overrated. Weak, passive and frail. Steph will struggle to be a test quality lock, and is beneath Victor. Hic us a shame because the blindside flank experiment failed. Lood is useful in that he is strong head-on, but is not a perfect player. Victor will not let the team down, has a work-rate akin to Schalk. 

I have been a little disappointed with Steph at the WC so far. His games at lock have been decent, but not exceptional, but when he was filling in as a loosie, I was not convinced! I still rate him, and I feel he has all the raw requirements of a test lock, but he still needs a lot of refining. Along with Lood and Etzebeth, our locking future looks pretty bright.
So for me, I'd start the knockout games with Lood and Etzebeth, with Matfield on the bench. Matfield can come on when the opposition forwards are already tired, hopefully then his lack of physicality in the tight 5, won't be as prominent. Also, it is normally in the closing stages of big games that cool heads will prevail, so his leadership could prove valuable.
  

Yes if Matfield starts we will lose  

Thank you Dave
A honest response, unlike Mike who is still trying to explain why we could, would, should win or lose or draw..... I never know
So Matfield starts we lose..... if he subs later we win........ I assume you mean this

 Boks by 8 if Victor plays off the bench. If he starts we may scrape it but it will be very tense, less than 5.

 DA
I don't know what you mean - I was absolutely clear - start with Matfield (or even have him on the bench and we lose and lose badly.   Matfield was over-powered by the AB's last year in both tests in the last part of the match - he i9s just no9t physical enough to withstand any onslaught.  So ti my mind he is ahnaadicap and that handicap is toos big to give us a winning chance.    

 DA
I don't know what you mean - I was absolutely clear - start with Matfield (or even have him on the bench and we lose and lose badly.   Matfield was over-powered by the AB's last year in both tests in the last part of the match - he i9s just no9t physical enough to withstand any onslaught.  So ti my mind he is ahnaadicap and that handicap is toos big to give us a winning chance.    

No Matfield should not feature at all  

Ok Mike, thanks
Just Matfield?

I think Wales is going to test our mettle in every department...they are battle hardened... overcame  England from the  back and lost to a brilliant defending Australian defence where they were thwarted of crossing the line.... we better get the advantage early in score or else we will struggle against their resilience and determination... Gatland and the side know they have what it takes....only last WC they lost to us because the ref forgot his spectacles at home...this a very testing game...we have to put points on the board early to win this game and our defence will have to be rock solid

 Im still laughing over Desert Fox thinking Wales well be a harder test then the abs. Lets not be naïve, NZ well be a thousand times tougher test then a depleted Wales lol, are you for real. In any case SA easily, but if Matfield is playing then Wales. But like Joel Stranksey said about the blaming the ref, at some point the team needs to take accountability.

Anything that prick says you can take with a pinch of salt.......there is rugby ignorance and then you have DumbFox  

 Seb
I think the game can be won provided  -
*   Meyer made the right selections and not select passengers - the chioef of which is Matfield; and
*   we do not play the game according to Wales dictates.   
We must never again be caught in the trap we were caught in in the WC quarterfinal in 2011 - the Springboks had 80% ball possession and wasted 99% of it.  Kicking away possession would be a one-way ticket to a loss.   The other part of that losing  ticket would be is we lose competitiveness in the Tight 5.   The key is not to play predictable rugby and forget about going into a shell because of the fear factor of losing possession if we dare to pass balls.
To a large extent the game can only be won if our defense is up to standard.  
        

Can't wait for the semi final analysis

Wales have the most physical and precise defence I have seen at this World Cup. One that kept the best attack in world rugby try-less. New Zealand on the other-hand are playing a languid, erroneous and bumbling game. One where their superstars are misfiring. So yes, I do rate Wales a harder test. They are a match-up which exposes our flaws more than any other.