1. The Waratahs are a better chance than you think
Forget the grumbles about the Waratahs' messy first half against the
Reds, it'll be a distant memory in two weeks' time when they host either
the Stormers or the Brumbies. In fact, if you had offered Michael
Cheika any home semi-final at the start of the season he would have
bitten your hand off. Coming off a 10-game stretch and a trip to South
Africa the Waratahs were always going to find parts of Saturday's game
hard going, and they will be a different proposition the next time they
play. They found a collective sting in defence that had gone missing in
South Africa, and every other coach left in the competition will know
they are a huge threat. They are such a big, physical side, they have
utter confidence in their methods and, again, they have managed to avoid
injuries to their key men at No.8, No.9, No.10 and No.15. A second
grand final in two years is very close.
2. Stormers are daunting but not insurmountable for the Brumbies
The Brumbies' loss to the Crusaders said more about that particular
rivalry than next week's trip to Cape Town. The Crusaders, of late, love
playing the Brumbies. They know they have their measure at the scrum
and in the pack, and were it not for the maul (see point No.3) the
Brumbies would still be trying to find a try. The Brumbies are still a
conservative side – their rigid structure suits the Cantabrians down to a
tee, who have the patience to field the Brumbies' kicks all day long.
However, the Brumbies can still go to South Africa with a chance of an
upset. Matt Toomua will clearly add to their attack, and if Robbie
Coleman is shifted to No.15 and given some licence to play the Brumbies
have the ability to move the South Africans around the park. We've
maintained for months the Brumbies couldn't win this competition, but
next week isn't necessarily the end for them.
3. The rolling maul conundrum
It says something poor about the game that a team full of Wallabies'
backs, coached by a legendary Wallabies' No.10, feel their best way of
scoring a try is through the lineout drive. It has become almost
unstoppable, but what coach in their right mind would stop using it when
it reaps such regular rewards? There are about five laws
(read them and weep) governing the attacking (and defending) side at
mauls – and breaking even one should result in a penalty. There is no
way on this earth that attacking sides are adhering to each and every
law as they repeatedly plough through opposition defences. So either
referees should begin to referee the attacking teams more strictly, or
coaches are given more incentive to take the ball into rucks with the
confidence they will get quick recycles. I'm sure Stephen Larkham would
prefer to see the Brumbies construct tries through the hands from
quality lineout ball. But at the minute, he's not taking the risk, and
we have to ask why.
4. Australia's poor year revealed
We get some very thoughtful readers' feedback, including this informative stats piece
by Terry Jones. Put simply, Terry has collated all this season's Super
Rugby results to show how poorly the Australian sides have performed in
games against non-Australian sides. Their win rate is just 35 per cent
against the New Zealand and South African sides. South Africa's win rate
against overseas opposition is comfortably superior at 47.5 per cent,
while the Kiwis are a mile ahead on 67.5 per cent. Closer inspection
points the finger at the Reds and the Force for the Australian
conference's limp record. Between them, the stragglers won just one out
of 16 inter-conference games this year. With all this in mind, two
Australian finalists doesn't look like a bad outcome.
5. Foley and Cooper share the spoils
There are
some games in which Quade Cooper makes the Reds a worse team, regardless
of how his fans try to shift the blame to the inadequacies of others.
The Waratahs game wasn't one of them. The Reds No.10 showed his great
range of passing, long and short, and the clever timing of the release
that puts so many defenders in two minds. But he really doesn't have
much to work with in the Reds' outside backs, especially as Karmichael
Hunt has been a major disappointment. Bernard Foley still has issues
with his clearances – compare his kicking from deep with that of Dan
Carter in Canberra – but when he starts running at the line he really
does open up both sides of the defender brilliantly. However, Cooper has
shown just enough since his comeback to suggest this No.10 duel may
have a few twists and turns this year.
TEAM OF THE WEEK
01.Chris Heiberg (Western Force)
02.James Hanson (Reds)
03.Greg Holmes (Reds)
04.Will Skelton (Waratahs)
05.Luke Jones (Rebels)
06.Sean McMahon (Rebels)
07.Michael Hooper (Waratahs)
08.Wycliff Palu (Waratahs)
09.Nick Phipps (Waratahs)
10.Bernard Foley (Waratahs)
11.Joe Tomane (Brumbies)
12.Kyle Godwin (Western Force)
13.Marcel Brache (Western Force)
14.Taqele Naiyaravoro (Waratahs)
15.Israel Folau (Waratahs)
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/the-waratahs-are-a-better-chance-than-you-think-20150614-ghnfb1
