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FORUM / RUGBY /  Turnovers have been a killer, but overall stats suggest the All Blacks are on track at the Rugby World Cup; by TOBY ROBSON

Turnovers have been a killer, but overall stats suggest the All Blacks are on track at the Rugby World Cup; by TOBY ROBSON

Started by Just_win3 REPLIES556 VIEWS· 14 Oct 2015, 19:39
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JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
14 Oct 2015, 19:39
#1
14 Oct 2015, 19:39#1

Loose forward Jerome Kaino says the All Blacks' opponents did not allow them to play their natural game during their four pool matches at the World Cup.

It's an alarming statistic at first sight even if it's not entirely a surprise.

Twenty turnovers per match. That's how many times the All Blacks have coughed up the ball on average during their four pool matches at the Rugby World Cup.

And it's a major reason why one big question hangs over the defending champions as they prepare for a quarterfinal against France in Cardiff.

Just what shape are the defending champions actually in ahead of their biggest test since the World Cup final four years ago in Auckland?

They are physically and mentally in good shape, but have been frustrated at the constant insinuation they are playing poorly across the board.

It's a perception essentially born out of their inability to hold onto possession, often in the face of a rushing defence.

"We haven't been able to play the natural way we want to play," loose forward Jerome Kaino said. "But that's partly because some of the opposition we've come up against have been quality. Hopefully this week we can take another step toward how we want to play."

Kaino's compliment was generous, but Georgia and Namibia should not have caused so many errors. To put the All Blacks' turnover rate in perspective, it was the worst of any of the 20 teams that contested the pool phase of the World Cup.

A positive spin would be that the more rugby a team plays, the 

more often they risk a fumble or an isolated ball carrier. It's true that the All Blacks have had the best attack at the tournament, their 6.3 tries per match more than twice as many as France.

But 20 turnovers per test are a lot in anyone's language. That's four more than France and seven more than South Africa. Even the lowest ranked side, Namibia, only conceded possession 16 times per match.

"Our skill execution wasn't great, but if there was one problem I'd say was easy to fix in this team it would be skill execution because we have plenty of talent," Hansen said after the Georgia match.

It would not surprise if there was some anxiety that the crisp pass and catch of training had not transferred into matches until the final quarter against Tonga.

Hansen and assistant Ian Foster have struck positive figures since the team transferred to Swansea and if the passes continue to stick, overall statistics suggest there is good reason for their optimism.

Take the popular belief that the All Blacks are no longer a force at the ruck. Openside Richie McCaw is too slow and Kieran Read is out of form. The Wallabies are setting a new bar with their dual opensides David Pocock and Michael Hooper.

The statistics tell a different story.

The All Blacks have earned an average of eight turnovers per match. That's not quite as good as Wales' 9.3, but it's better than fellow quarterfinalists Argentina, France, Scotland, and South Africa, and on a par with Australia (8.3) and Ireland (8.8).

Read, for the record, leads the way for the All Blacks with seven snaffles, just three shy of Pocock's benchmark.

And there is a discipline to the All Blacks' work.

Openside Sam Cane spoke this week of the team's ability to tweak its tactics at the breakdown. They have clearly put defensive structure and line speed ahead of chasing turnovers to this point and, along with Ireland, have missed less tackles than any other side at just 10.5 per match.

Notably the All Blacks have conceded just nine penalties per game. Only Japan (eight) have troubled the referees less.

And the set-piece has been exceptional. Hooker Dane Coles has nailed 97 per cent of his throws and the scrum has operated at 100 per cent on the All Blacks' feed.

Yet still, the perception remains that the All Blacks are off well off their game.

Which brings us back to the start, and those frustrating handling errors that have dogged them since wing Nehe Milner-Skudder shelled a sitter against Argentina.

Since then most members of the team have suffered from a case of the dropsies.

Hansen is confident the prospect of being knocked out of the tournament will be enough to focus his players' minds.

If it does, then the rhetoric around the All Blacks might change quite dramatically. If not then they risk dropping far more than just the simple passes that have too often not found their mark.

 - Stuff

 

JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
14 Oct 2015, 19:57
#2
14 Oct 2015, 19:57#2
 Nice to read about but at kick off the score is zero to zero.
BR
BrycyPro4,671 posts
14 Oct 2015, 20:29
#3
14 Oct 2015, 20:29#3

..be interesting to see what Hansen can do about improving things in the dark arts dept...it is said we are living in the rugby ‘age of phase play’...the way the game has evolved a case can be made fore NZ to use two open side flankers like the Aussies are doing given they are now arguably the players of most worth...


This is purely because what they do matters the most on a rugby field. Once upon a time the ‘open-side’ played his role, but it was proportionally much less significant.


Average rucks/mauls per match
1970-73 – average of 31 ruck/mauls per Test
1995 – average of 69 ruck/mauls per Test
2011 – average of 162 ruck/mauls per Test


Average set pieces per Test
1970-73 – average of 101 set pieces per Test (63 lineouts/38 scrums)
1995- averaged of 64 set pieces per test (37 lineouts/27 scrums)
2011 – average of 41 set pieces per Test (24 line-outs/17 scrums)


 ..so there is a vast difference in the amount of time the ball is play and therefore there are more chances for the ‘open-side’ to shine and to inspire his teammates...


...the openside flanker is now king hence this is why more open sides are captaining their sides..ie King Richie, Sam Cane



WA
WardadPro6,663 posts
14 Oct 2015, 23:13
#4
14 Oct 2015, 23:13#4
 Hey Brycy JW!I watch a sh!tload of old rugby matches and those stats of Brycys  has reinforced my perceptions of how prior to the mid 90s there was a lot of moving from one set piece to another ,especially when you could kick for touch on the full outside the 22 .Very little passing and phases were few .Probably why line-outs and scrums were so quick to form too.Brycy can I use yer stats to beat some dopey Aussies over the head with ? Cheers !
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