But if you can't trust the Iranian's one inch then why were you posting positively about a potential deal with them? I mean at the time there was mummering's of a deal very little was known about it. The reason for optimism was the Trump administration declared a deal was close and for once the Iranian's didn't immediately dismiss his claim, saying progress had been made, but since then Iran has said despite the progress a deal isn't imminent so now it appears a deal in the short term is unlikely.
But for those who thought the Obama deal bought something more than frozen bank accounts for Iran….the announcement was a lot more positive than they were projecting.
How so. What deal did you understand was being close to negotiated, how does that compare to Obama's deal?
My position is the world is struggling because of the Hormuz closure, but already adjusting with new sources and new pipelines. Iran by contrast is in serious trouble economically and logistically. I would continue the blockade until they are clearly defeated.
You're being far too optimistic with you assessment. You brought up the new pipeline of the UAE but that's not due to open till next year assuming all goes well. And then we have other issues of what if Iran attacks the pipeline when it opens. I mean I know it's mostly underground but there is a 17KM stretch that's above ground in additional to several facilities above ground that are needed to run and maintain the pipeline that Iran could potential target. And then that's just the UAE, what about the other countries who have yet to start building the pipelines not one that was already 50% complete.
We already have critical damage done to infrastructure in Gulf countries that will take years to repair as well.
And building new pipelines doesn't help Gulf countries deal with the other threats Iran poses to it. The Gulf countries have established themselves as safe heavens for the rich, as great places to set up data centres and as major hubs for airlines. These are major economic benefits to the Gulf states and all would remains under threat.
So while yes other places are producing more oil to cope, it's only helping so much as we burn through our reserves stocks.
Even if Iran collapses economically we don't know if that would topple the Iranian regime. They are the ones with the guns after all.
And this all has to be weighed against the ever increasing economic damage this is doing to the world and the terrible suffering it's going to inflict on some of the poorest countries in the world. We are talking tens of millions facing extreme hunger.
The difficulty with that is politics at home and European fecklessness. Trump is trying to finesse that, but it’s tricky. Still if I were Iran I’d get this done before the elections. If Republicans do better than expected and Iran remains truculent the remainder of Trump’s term will be very difficult for them.
What exactly do you want the European to do. Say they did row in behind Trump's campaign. What could they offer. Europe could send some more aircraft and assist in bombing Iran, but it seems at this point both America and Israel have achieved all that they can from bombing Iran from the air, it would simply be an exercise in re-arranging rubble.
Europe could send ships to try to re-open the Straight. But would it work? I mean even if say a joint American-European naval forced sailed up and down the straights and tried to escort ships could they actually protect them? As long as Iran controls the massive coastline along the Straight, both the military and civilians ships will be under threat. Would the civilians ships get insurance, would their crews be willing to take the risk. And even if they were willing, how many ships could be escorted at one time? How long would such a naval operation take, would it be indefinite? The truth is the American's could actually do such an operation on their own, but they don't want too, because they know the risks and the costs of such an operation. I think even if Europe did send some ships to help the US still wouldn't risk it, because they know it's going to work.
Still if I were Iran I’d get this done before the elections. If Republicans do better than expected and Iran remains truculent the remainder of Trump’s term will be very difficult for them.
Trump would need a remarkable turn around for the mid terms. As it stands the Republicans are on for a drubbing.