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Consumer confidence at Highest since.......

Started by Mozart11 REPLIES531 VIEWS· 30 Oct 2018, 16:09
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MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
30 Oct 2018, 16:09
#1
30 Oct 2018, 16:09#1
.......September 2000. Just breaking news.
BR
BrycyPro4,671 posts
30 Oct 2018, 19:18
#2
30 Oct 2018, 19:18#2
Trump calls stock market decline "a little pause," yet investors fret

    A recent correction has wiped out all of 2018's gains in the S&P and the Dow

  • The S&P 500 is down 10 per cent, a technical correction 
  • The Dow is fell 245 points Monday and is lower than it was before the Trump tax cuts
  • Trump wrote amid turbulence it was 'taking a little pause'....i.e tanking..
  • President Donald Trump addressed the October stock market swoon on Tuesday, describing its 9 percent decline as "a little pause."

    "There are no shortage of worries for investors," wrote Joe Quinlan, head of CIO Market Strategy at Bank of America, U.S. Trust on Friday. "And then there's the mother of all fears: now fragile global equity markets and the sinking feeling that the great bull market in U.S. equities appears to have exhausted itself."

    While Mr. Trump may be proved correct that October's market decline will be brief, the market is notoriously difficult to predict. Regardless, some economists point to an expected slowdown in the GDP growth rate as a headwind for investors, with Capital Economics predicting the S&P 500 will shed 15 percent of its value from its recent peak. 

    CBS

I don't really follow US politics much, althoughIf you have a left-wing government and a right-wing government, they take turns in power. (Or at least  one more left, and one more right).

The left is always going to be a bit more socialist in style, and the right will always be a bit more capitalist. 

If a more extreme right-wing (Like Trump) comes into power and dismantles the public service, this would certainly lead to short-term gains. Less tax for business, and less public service expenses. (E.g. ObamaCare).
This is also happening with a backdrop of what is happening with the stock markets, and what stage of the bubble the investors are from crashing the economy. (again).Investors always crash the economy at some stage as they get more aggressive (confident) - and require less and less collateral to guarantee expenditure. Overconfidence follows and the markets crash. What goes up, must come down- and the government then needs to bail out the economy once again.
Business creates the resources of governments and all their toys. Once every 75 years there is a crisis where governments really have to be the lender of last resort. But in the case of the 2009 Great Recession, it all stemmed from government's desire to make housing available to everyone. Out of that policy and the concomitant relaxing of bank balance sheets we got packaged mortgages and mortgage insurance which brought down the whole edifice And then you had the Obama Government going after banks like Bank America which bailed out Merrill Lynch with strong encouragement from financial regulators when things were at their darkest....only to be punished for Merrill's assets which they simply acquired and had no role in creating. Most studies of the actions of the Fed show they create and exacerbate problems, rather than smoothing the system. Mankind's best friend, the thing that feeds us, transports us, entertains us and provides the means to help us when we are sick, is big business.
It is true the government is funded by tax, (Corporate tax and employee income tax). This is paid by everyone. 
American companies, however, do not pay tax in Europe and launder money through Ireland as a loophole.

The bailouts (or the nationalisation- communist economy) happened all over the world. The crashes were not caused by business as a whole, but rather by consumer banks, brokers and consumer overconfidence. The most recent fiasco was named the credit crunch in the UK, not sure if elsewhere as well.
The bubble usually bursts when confidence is at its highest, so hopefully regulation has become tighter after the 2010 saga's- and capital is limited by equity collateral to prevent overconfidence.

It is unclear what the right mix of left/right( capitalism and socialism) is. Too much socialism is overconsumption and waist by people that are not contributing enough and expensive governments and bureaucracy.  Too much capitalism means little to no public sector such as hospitals, public schools etc, etc. Some of these people from public schools will go onto becoming business leaders in the future- assuming they get the reasonable opportunity when they are younger. Money In = Money out.
I just fear that Trump may be pushing the dial too much, and destroying things like Obama Care.  This is a quick way to boost the profit and loss statement, but it might not be the best long-term direction- because a left-wing government would just be voted in again- and they would have to reinvest tax money into rebuilding some of the stuff Obama did.
Not sure if someone who is a born billionaire is the best to lead a country, as subconsciously they may always favour the rich(or at least the current rich). He also appears to have a record of building companies that looked good on appearance, but behind the scenes, they collapsed and cost the taxpayers allot of money. I do not have much details on this- but that seems to be some of the consensuses.

SB

There were some interesting remarks recently made by Tito Mboweni - the new Minister of Finance.  He was previously Governor of the Reserve Bank and then went into private business,

He was talking about two issues -

*   the bankruptcy of the state companies like Eskom,  Prasa, SAA, Denel, SABC etc; 

*   the very real death trap SA Government Hospitals have become; and

*   the serious problems encountered by virtually all Government Departments.

Most of the problems have been caused by deep-rooted looting by insiders and the finances of the country  is being destroyed systematically.   There is a number of Commissions of enquiry on the go and the scandals are coming out thick and fast.

However, Mboweni sees the things differently from the road the ANC has been going the past decade and may not last within the ANC himself.  He spoke about -

*   the lunacy of land usage iro of the land bought by the state in the past and handed over to Blacks which land has become unproductive - even in the area where he himself is farming, often in partnership with major White farmers;

*    the bringing in of partners with financial viability and in expertise in running hospitals - especially bearing in mind that private hospitals in SA are functioning as some of the top class hospitals in the world; and 

*    the need to re-position the state corporations - a soft term to get going on selling off or disposing of non-viable corporations costing the Government billions every year in loan guarantees.

In the main he believes in some socialist tendencies of "big" Government actually self-destructing institutions they set up to help the poor and the needy,   That means that social programmes should be run in partnership with the private sector,           

I firmly believe that is the way to go.   I have always maintained that public servants all over the world functions the same - whether they operate in London, Washigton, Moscow, Peiping, Caracas, Brazilia  or Pretoria.   They have barrel vision and in many cases use state money to enrich themselves.   

I have been involved in an exercise where the other way was followed - namely the concessioning/privatization of the water and sewerage services of the then Dolphin Coast Municipality.   It was the first such action in SA and the result was a major success, but unfortunately not repeated elsewhere in SA.    The service became a major success and helped the Municipality in providing infrastructure to lead to an expansion rate of 14% in the economic development of the area over the succeeding decade.   Rates and tariffs are determined by the Municipal Council in co-operation with the Concessionaire - with a marker that the concessionaires net profit should not exceed 15% per annum.   Fact is the rate increases normally were actually in par with or even lower than inflation rates.

However, back to what Mboweni said about State Hospitals in particular,  He wanted to go into partnership with private hospital owners to allow them to run state hospitals on a viable basis.   Easier said than done - the trade unions will have a fit - but the death trap situation would largely evaporate.

To my mind the Governments around the world will assist all their residents by going that way,   The idea that Government on its own can run countries and especially services to the poor and needy to my mind leads to the present situation where the elite liberals and socialists create heaven for themselves and hell for the ordinary people in the countries all around the world.  I am not surprised that there is a world wide tide tendency against the governing elite all over the world.          


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