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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  Covid Rates increase in US and Europe

Covid Rates increase in US and Europe

Started by sharkbok10 REPLIES564 VIEWS· 18 Oct 2020, 01:21
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sharkbok
Captain23,208 posts
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sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
18 Oct 2020, 01:21
#1
18 Oct 2020, 01:21#1

US Covid rates appear to be following the Euro trend with a rapid spike. Not a great situation...
It seems the warning about winter in Northern Hemisphere going to be worse was right. 

Yesterday the US got over 70,000 daily infections, their second-highest date. They should pass most daily infections soon given the paid spike.
It is their 3rd spike of the 1st wave, with the EU on the second wave. 

The UK is doing more local lockdowns with some very severe but is considering a short nationwide circuit lockdown. France is going back into lockdowns. 

The UK is going to be leaving the EU with no deal and still economically weak from Corona. The US will probably have a new government, but the UK has to wait another 4 years for an election. 

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sharkbok
Captain23,208 posts
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sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
23 Oct 2020, 16:49
#2
23 Oct 2020, 16:49#2
The UK recorded its highest day ever on the 21st Oct with 26,000 cases. The US recorded its highest day ever yesterday with 75,000 cases. 

Both are certainly spiralling out of control again. And we are just about to start flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. Respiratory diseases are the worst at the start of winter, so things are going to get worse.
Hopefully, one of the vaccines can get some type of approval to use. 
MO
Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
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MozartCaptain49,914 posts
23 Oct 2020, 18:23
#3
23 Oct 2020, 18:23#3

Wrong July 24 at 78976 is still the highest number of cases in the USA. 

And the inference is wrong. Covid has gradually been spreading through the US and is now present in most States. So the target for disease spreading is bigger than in July and far bigger than in March.

But the intensity of the new infections in places like NY, California and Florida is way lower.....a broader disease/ less new case intensity in places the disease has matured/and much lower death rates.

There your media sources never explained that.

PA
Pakie
Captain17,321 posts
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PakieCaptain17,321 posts
23 Oct 2020, 18:45
#4
23 Oct 2020, 18:45#4

This virus will stop spiking after most people have been infected. The flu has been around for how long now and we still can't stop that, it still kills hundreds of thousands every year. Covid will likely be the same thing. It will kill for years to come and nothing you or I or our moms or Fauci or Trump or Deepak fucking Chopra or anyone else you can think of does will be able to contain it from the point we are now. We can take special measures to protect the vulnerable, to an extent. All it takes though is one breath in the wrong company or one idle finger that touched the wrong surface scratching a nose and ther e you go. It needs to run its course, simple as that.

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sharkbok
Captain23,208 posts
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sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
23 Oct 2020, 18:58
#5
23 Oct 2020, 18:58#5

75,687 - July75, 064 - Yesterday
The report I quoted was wrong by about 500 cases. 
This chart shows the third US spike.
The steeper the curve, the faster it is spreading. 
You will notice the curve is getting steep very quickly. There has been a rapid jump in one week, so at this rate, it will be over 100,000 per day in the US.
There is no way to protect the older people, as like Pakie mentioned all they need to do is touch a package delivered to them, and they pick up the virus. 
The more young people that have it, the more old people are going to get it. It has been proven time and time again. 
Herd immunity may not even work as reports of people being infected twice are increasing. A vaccine has the same effect as herd immunity, without having to get infected in the first place. It may have to be part of its corona cousin flue annual jab. (If lots of people get it again). 
MO
Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
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MozartCaptain49,914 posts
24 Oct 2020, 01:43
#6
24 Oct 2020, 01:43#6

The number on July 24 was 78976.....check it out on the Worldometer.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The wave in March was steeper than the wave in July which in turn was steeper than the current wave.....again obvious on the Worldometer. Just look up the US data. 


Older people can be effectively protected...not perfectly, but in a way that massively reduces the risk. Which may be part of the reason that 

Herd immunity will eventually work...but not if people not at risk from Covid are locked down. 


And given many more tests are being done now, it follows many of those testing positive are asymptomatic. Which is also consistent with much lower death rates than in April. 

Finally core Europe...Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the UK ....which is heavily into lockdowns are running 50% higher rates than the US with the same population.


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sharkbok
Captain23,208 posts
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sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
24 Oct 2020, 02:02
#7
24 Oct 2020, 02:02#7
If you are right, yesterday was the highest day of the third peak. 
We can confirm this over the next 2-3 weeks. 

Incidentally, the report you posted, shows Florida and Texas as the states with the highest increase in cases yesterday. They are 2 of the bigger states, but they are also critical in the elections- as even Texas may be up for grabs.
Not great timing for Trump to have the 3rd peak just before the election - with red states and battleground states featuring near the top of the table for most cases per million people. 

#USA
StateTotal
CasesNew
CasesTotal
DeathsNew
DeathsTotal
RecoveredActive
CasesTot Cases/
1M popDeaths/
1M popTotal
TestsTests/
1M popPopulationProjectionsUSA Total8,665,743+74,466228,381+9735,655,3012,782,06126,180690129,804,568392,156 1Texas896,803+6,20117,878+92760,263118,66230,9296178,245,551284,37028,995,881[projections]2Florida768,091+5,55716,273+63518,668233,15035,7627585,829,220
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Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
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MozartCaptain49,914 posts
24 Oct 2020, 02:48
#8
24 Oct 2020, 02:48#8

It would be better for Trump if Covid was declining....but Florida and Texas were in much more trouble 2 months ago.

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sharkbok
Captain23,208 posts
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sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
24 Oct 2020, 11:21
#9
24 Oct 2020, 11:21#9
The US recorded 85,085 cases yesterday (using the Google chart),
or 81,210 cases using the world barometer chart. 
Either way, the highest number of new infections in one day. 
At the rate it is increasing, in 2-3 weeks it is probably going to be over 100KThe UK is on the same trend as the US. 


MO
Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 Oct 2020, 04:48
#10
25 Oct 2020, 04:48#10

The States in dark blue have finally caught up with the rest of the country......prior high infection per capita States like California, Texas and Florida remain well below their peaks.


If the European experience is duplicated we would expect to see a surge in the NE, not evident yet.

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sharkbok
Captain23,208 posts
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sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
25 Oct 2020, 13:32
#11
25 Oct 2020, 13:32#11
Following Friday's highest day in number of infection, yesterday was the second-highest ever. So it certainly looks like a third peak... And spiralling out of control.
It has doubled over the last 30 days. 
The rust belt is now the most infected areas. Florida, New York and Texas have high rates of increase recently, and if this continues at the same curve they could be back to where they were before.

It is estimated that in New York - the maximum amount of people infected is 10-20%.
So even if they were "still" immune now, that is still a large enough population size to gain a foothold again.Herd immunity needs to be over 60%
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