Based on recent election results - ie all elections since 2014 when the last elections were held for the EU Parliament with it 721 members- the situation is flexible- but likely bad for the EU Parliamentary elections:-
So lets look at it country by country and see where we get:-
United Kingdom - 73 members
The present membership are as follows:-
* UKIP = 24
* Labour = 20
* Conmservatives = 19
* Fringe parties = 10
It is not clear whether the UK will participate in the 2019 EU elections anyway, However, the problem is that the Conservatives and Labour are split down the middle if the referendum results are borne in mind, If there is an election in the UK - it is likely that the EU sceptics - the UKIP and Brexit Parties combined will get about 40 seats with the fringe parties remaining the same and Labout and Conservatives combined having about 23 representatives.
That is why it is likely that the EU would prefer not to have any UK representatives in the EU Parliament
Germany - 96 members
The membership at present has the following number of members:-
* SCU and Bavarian allies - 39
* Social DP - 27
* Greens and Leftists - 14
* Alternative for Germany - 7
* Fringe Parties - 9
Since 2014 there were German National Elections and also State Elections. In 2014 there was no AfD members of the Reichstag and the CSU and Alliance Parties had support of circa 45% in elections. The SDP had support of about 32% of the electorate and the Free Democratic Party about 3%. Of the above parties only the AfD is EU –sceptic.
Since then the following occurred:-
* The SCU and co dropped to 30% support in national and State elections
* The SDP drop to 19% support
* The AfD went up from virtually 1% in German selections to 21%
* The Free Democratic party went up from 3 to 7%
* The support of other parties basically remain static
So lets work out the number of representatives on that basis:-
CSU and Alliance - 30% = 28 members
Afd = 21 members
SDP = 18 memebrs
FDP = 8 members
Fringe Parties = 21 members
The Bavarian component of the CDU are also largely rightwing and not happy with the EU and to include them in the scenario means that at least 7 of that party and 4 of the SPD would be regarded as EU sceptics – so how does it look for the future:-
EU supporting parties = 63
EU sceptics = 33
Italy - 73 members
The Italian elections of 2018 was an incredible mess with most of the paties that ruled Italy since the 1950’s being virtually wiped out:-
The biggest block of members came from the Forza Italia Party and Democratic Party with 40 seats and the anti-EU Northern League have 6 representatives. The Five Star movement have no members and the rest of the members are made up of fringe parties all more or less pro-EU
However the 2018 Italian election came up with a hugely different combination of votes:-
Five Star Movement - 33% of the vote
League - 20% of the vote
Forza Italia - 14% of the vote
Democratic Party - 19% of the vote
Others - 14% of the vote
The Five Star movement and the League are governing Italy at present and signs are they ay even increase the anti EU Parliamentarians in the next election:-
So what may the Italian EU Parliamentarians look like after the Elections:-
Five Star – League = 40 members
Democratic Party = 16 members
Forza Italia = 12 members
Others = 5 members.
Forza Italia – the Berlusconi Party - is also conservative and not an automatic supporter of the EU situation.
So the EU sceptic parties may have 52 members in the new EU Parliament with supporters at 21,
France - 74 members
The EU elections for 2014 resulted in the election of 23 National Party supporters – 25% of the votes. The other 50 members were all EU supporters.
However, the French Parliamentary and Presidential selections showed an increase in support for the National Party while the other Parties combined to support Macron at the time as a bastion against the National Party.
The plan did not work out and Macron’s support fropped from 63% tp the resent 28%. In recent opinion polls the Yellow Vest movement which is largely anti EU has still got support from 56% of the voters, while the support for Marine le Pen herself remains at more or less 37% .
Since the large parties of the past was virtually wiped out in the French elections it is calculated that the situation is that the split will be as follows:-
NP and other EU sceptics - 47% = 36 members
Other Parties - 53% = 38 members
It could even be worse and have a majority of EU sceptics elected, If the Yellow Vest support is translated to actual anti-EU voting the numbers could change to 43 EU sceptic members and 31 others,
Spain - 54 seats
It is very difficult to do a forecast for Spain. In 2914 he political landscape is vastly different from what it is today. Spain had no EU sceptics in the present EU parliamentarians – but there is a growing anti-EU party (Vox) in evidence that party support in the EU is anyone’s guess,
In recent local government elections VOX has show major growth of the last year, That could translate to thm getting at least 15 in the EU Parliament and that is a very conservative forcast,
Poland - 51 members
In the 2014 election the distribution of members were as follows:-
Pro EU Parties 44 members
EU Sceptics 7 members
In the subsequent general election the EU sceptics (The Law and Justice Party) won 51% of the seats in the Sjeim. Taking that into account and subsequent trends on for instance the EU migration policy has raised further support for the EU sceptics has the potential to selct the following in the EU elections:-
* Justice and Law Party - 26 members
* Other Parties - 15 members
Hungary - 22 seats
Basically there are at present 15 Eurosceptic members from Hungary in the EU Parliament/ The 2018 Parliamentary Elections indicated that the number of EU sceptic memers would probably increase by 1 member which leave the situation as follows:-
EU sceptic parties = 16 members
Pro EU members = 6 members
Austria - 18 seats
The situation in Austria basically were as follows:-
The EU support group = 14 Seats
The EU sceptics = 4 seats
However, the Parliamentary elections showed a movement to the right in Austria and a coalition Government comprising the conservative OVP (62 seats) and the rightwing FPO (51 seats) forming a coalition Government.
In the subsequent Austrian Presidential election in 2018 the rightwing candidate a runaway victory in the first round elections but did not get 50% of the vote and a second round election was held. The Rightwing candidate won in the second round, but the opposing candidate took the matter to Court and a further election was held as a result of the ruling by the Court, Tis time the candidate of the Greens won the vote by 30 000 votes - with 70 000 votes from Austrians living outside of Austria causing the win by the combined opposition.
Indications are that the new situation in the EU elections could mean that the EU will be as follows:-
EU sceptics = 10 members
EU support = 8 members.
Romania - 32 seats
The situation was that of the 32 seats the distribution was as follows:-
Pro EU parties = 31 members
EU sceptics = 1 seat
Bearing in mind the 2016 elections and the role ofo minority parties in the Romanian election in 2016 the situation may be as follows:-
Pro EU parties = 20 members
EU sceptics = 12 members
The Czech Republic - 21 seats
The situation was that the results were as follows:-
EU supporters = 14 members
EU sceptics = 4 members
In the 2018 presidential election a fierce critic of the EU won 51% of the vote and is indicative that the likely outcome of the EU elections will be as follows:-
EU sceptics - 8 members
EU Supporters - 6 members
Slovakia - 13 seats
The election of EU Parliamentarians had only 13% of registered voters voted and the results resulted in all 13 members which could be classified as Pro-EU
The parliamentary election in 2016 left a different impression and the electorate and in 2014 an important EU sceptic was elected by 60% of the voters as Slovakian President, He decided not to run for the post again in 2019 - but is still the most trusted politician in Slovakia and according to polls would have won the election easily should he have participated,.
Based on that it is likely that in the upcoming election it is likely that the sea distribution would be as follows:
EU sceptics - 8 members
EU Supporters - 5 members
The Netherlands - 26 seats
The Netherlands is a country of coalitions and without a strong party system, In the 2014 the election resulted in the following outcomes:
* EU Supporters = 19 memebrs
* EU Sceptics = 7 members
Since 2014 there was a series of elections held in the Netherlands:-
* In 2016 there was a referendum about Turkish membership of the EU as suggested at the time by the EU, The referendum result went against the wishes of both the EU and the Dutch Government and was ignored by both
* The parliamentary elections in 2017 caused a serious problem in coalition forming as such came second in the turnout and a new coalition without the anti EU parties were ruled out,
* In the Senate elections in 2019 their was a major swing to the anti EU parties and again they gained a number of seats by about 6 seats.
All in all it is vey difficult to determine what will happen in the EU election - but there is a growing anti-EU sentiment developing in the Netherland and taking into account the voter swings referred to above, it is likely that the results in 2019 is likely to show th following:-
* EU supporters - 16
* EU sceptics - 10
Other smaller Countries 162 members
In some countries the EU supporting parties have in the past total ruled the roost. It will take quite some time to see what happened in those countries in recent years and I would analyse some of them later on .