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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  Herd Immunity

Herd Immunity

Started by sharkbok15 REPLIES509 VIEWS· 05 Apr 2020, 18:13
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SH
sharkbokCaptain23,212 posts
05 Apr 2020, 18:13
#1
05 Apr 2020, 18:13#1

If no cure presents itself in the next 3-6 months, then herd immunity is the only option that is left. Given how contagious it is, it seems that at least 75% of the people might get it. (at least in certain countries like the UK, US, Italy, Spain etc). 

The lockdown may only be slowing down the spread of the virus which allows hospitals to cope over 6 months, instead of over 2 months. Also, time to acquire a surplus of medical equipment like ventilators and PPE. 

It is tragic but while there is a list of possible cures, the testing so far has not produced enough data of reliable significance. The samples have been too small, and the results should be the same regardless of which doctor applies it - and this has not been the case. 

Maybe the summer will slow it down in the Northern Hemisphere combined with more people already having contracted the virus, but by November it may just become more contagious again. It may even mutate and become even more deadly than it already is. If enough of the "herd" has had it before then, it will much more difficult for the virus to spread again.

That would at least buy time for a cure to be developed before it returns again- assuming a cure can be made. 

The oldest people and those most at threat would then just need to stay indoors for the next 6 months until the herd can no longer transmit the virus on a large scale. At that stage, the flu is more of a threat. 

International travel restrictions may also need to be in place for 6 months to prevent the countries that have got it the worst, giving to counties that have been less affected.  Exceptions could be for people that have a certification for already having had the virus- and therefore they cant pick it up again or transmit to other people - or at least at a very low % chance.

PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
05 Apr 2020, 18:22
#2
05 Apr 2020, 18:22#2

A lockdown has no purpose other than delaying the spread to allow systems to cope - in other words people get sick a few at a time instead of all at once. The virus isn't just suddenly going to disappear during or after a lockdown, and a lockdown that goes on for too long (especially in a country like South Africa) will create a socio-economic meltdown that will dwarf any threat that the virus might have posed.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
05 Apr 2020, 19:01
#3
05 Apr 2020, 19:01#3

Our virologists haven’t had to cope with something like this in 4 generations. They are educated but inexperienced. And it shows.....wear masks/don’t wear masks is just one example.


This is also an area that doesn’t attract huge funding....these virus based diseases are unpredictable, logic says the profits are in heart disease and cancer. So the biggest talents and resources are elsewhere. We are starting from scratch.


Then you have the modelers, who much like the Climate Change modelers have produced disastrously  radical projections which forced the Brits to change their whole approach to the disease.


I think the original British model was right.....go for rapid herd immunity among those not at risk. Quarantine only the vulnerable. 

That doesn’t flatten the overall curve, but it flattens the curve of those likely to be in hospital.


Time buys you better hospital conditions, better treatments of those who have the disease and become very ill and a possible vaccine. There are many avenues being explored on the vaccine front, but nothing is assured.


 In the meantime we are putting ourselves in a mode that is unbelievably costly and hard to reverse. It’s been driven by the medical talking heads and a ‘do good’ media.

A limited ‘at risk’ quarantine, masks, no large gatherings and social distancing where practical might have got us to the same health  point 3 months out with much stronger economies. 



CL
CleanCutPro9,905 posts
06 Apr 2020, 08:47
#4
06 Apr 2020, 08:47#4

We were told by our "president" that South Africa is ready to tackle this virus.

Then a local radio station had to beg the public for gloves and masks for the hospital staff.

These idiots running this country can't even keep the lights on ... or fill simple pot holes in ... and they want us to believe they have the virus under control.

Yeah right.

This virus is going to destroy many households in this country ... like never before ... joblessness ... financial collapse ... and death. 

That's what you get from incompetence running the show.

Brace yourself boys ... we are in for a ride like no other.

Sterkte!!


 

 

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
06 Apr 2020, 09:39
#5
06 Apr 2020, 09:39#5

I get the feeling that much of this lockdown is about slowing down triage deaths(which i think is also the term for dying in hospital due to lack of staff/supplies).

The reason being, in historial time frames of decades, centuries or millennia...there's evidence and precedent for pandemics causing mass devastation. 

It means that there is no excuse for governments and responsible organisations to be this unprepared and people would point the finger at them. Rightly so.

It's quite obvious that most of the world's population will get this. You just can't stop it. 

Stockpiling masks, when you're not in an at risk age group or category, is stupid.

Prioritise masks for older and sicker people and 100% make sure that everyone on the frontline has masks.

That's my take. 

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
06 Apr 2020, 09:42
#6
06 Apr 2020, 09:42#6

A friend of mine in Madrid contracted it. She is a doctor.

No symptoms, which is good. 

 

PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
06 Apr 2020, 09:51
#7
06 Apr 2020, 09:51#7

Interesting to see the anecdotal connection now being drawn between the old TB vaccine BCG and fewer deaths from Covid-19 in countries where the vaccine had been widely applied. Waiting to see what happens with the clinical tests they're now going to do with the vaccine specifically to combat Covid-19. Could be a game changer with a proper vaccine not in sight yet.

MO
MoonroverPro1,973 posts
06 Apr 2020, 10:21
#8
06 Apr 2020, 10:21#8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i453tQHFnG0

This video from Japan is the best in understanding those micro droplets of the Corona Virus and the third method of it being spread

Ventilation is the key factor and it's not rocket science that much of this virus has been transferred in those closed travel environments.

SE
SebPro2,680 posts
06 Apr 2020, 13:05
#9
06 Apr 2020, 13:05#9

Maybe a wake up call.

Mankind is getting too arrogant and self-centred that this foolish pride blinds him to realities.


PRIDE OF MAN

 

Gordon Lightfoot

 

https://youtu.be/2wj8LDv4qk8

 

 

Turn around go back down
Back the way you came
Can't you see that flash of fire
10 times brighter than the day
And behold a mighty city
Broken in the dust again

Oh God, pride of man
Broken in the dust again

Turn around go back down
Back the way you came
Babylon is laid to waste
Egypt's buried in her shame
Their mighty men are all beaten down
Their kings are all fallen' in the ways

Oh God, pride of man
Broken in the dust again

Turn around go back down
Back the way you came
Terror is on ever sign
Though our leaders are dismayed
All those who place their faith in fire
In fire their fate shall be repaid

Oh God, pride of man
Broken in the dust again

Turn around go back down
Back the way you came
And shout a warning to the nation
That the sword of God is raised
Yes, Babylon backed by its city
Rich in treasure wide in fame

Oh God, pride of man
Broken in the dust again

And it shall cause your tower to fall
Make of you a pyre of flame
Oh, you who dwell on many waters
Rich in treasure wide in fame
You bow unto your god of gold
Your pride of might shall be a shame
For only God can lead his people
Back unto the earth again

Oh God, pride of man
Broken in the dust again

The holy mountain be restored
Have mercy on the people
The people
Lord

 


CL
CleanCutPro9,905 posts
06 Apr 2020, 13:23
#10
06 Apr 2020, 13:23#10

Correct me if I'm wrong but a vaccine is usually administered as a preventative measure ... not as a cure.

Back in the day I received vaccines for polio, chickenpox and measles ... a once off ... and that made me immune to these contagious diseases. 

The Corona Virus is a flu on steroids.

We have never manage to develop anything similar for the ordinary flu, as it tends to mutate, making it rather resistant. Most folk take their flu shots annually and yet many thousands still die from the flu each year. 

What chances are there that we can combat Covid-19 successfully if we can't even defeat the flu?

The clever people have used the antibodies from those who've recovered and come up with nothing. It's 4 months down the line and there's still no cure in sight. 

Too many of us are underestimating this thing.

It's not just going to go away.



CL
CleanCutPro9,905 posts
06 Apr 2020, 13:29
#11
06 Apr 2020, 13:29#11

This bug shows no signs of discrimination.

It kills those who hate God ... as well as those who love Him.

Come one ... come all.

All are welcome.



DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
06 Apr 2020, 14:11
#12
06 Apr 2020, 14:11#12

It even likes hard surfaces....can hang there for days.

Science will find a cure....the question is, how soon...

PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
06 Apr 2020, 15:50
#13
06 Apr 2020, 15:50#13

I also understand a vaccine as preventative. It's going to be interesting to see how this develops in SA as it seems BCG is a pretty standard vaccination over here so many people who got their childhood shots may actually have a good level of immunity against this thing - MAY. Time will tell, but it may help curb our numbers. It might also account for why so many people are hardly affected by the virus. 

Anyway, just speculation, but interesting nonetheless .

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,212 posts
06 Apr 2020, 16:24
#14
06 Apr 2020, 16:24#14
I have also been reading about the TB vaccine BCG. I don't remember if I ever had this, but did get some injections in school. I also have that mark on my arm from a stamp type of needle that does routine smallpox vaccination etc.
The data does appear to show consistency with countries still using BCG being more resilient to Corona.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
06 Apr 2020, 17:50
#15
06 Apr 2020, 17:50#15

Very interesting point Pakie. The differences in  country death rates are vast ....testing, climate, hospital effectiveness and maybe weird stuff like blood types, diabetes and who knows TB vaccines.


SE
SebPro2,680 posts
06 Apr 2020, 18:33
#16
06 Apr 2020, 18:33#16

Throughout history there has been, diseases,plagues etc. Some pretty horrific. Who knows this might be the mother of all and yes the priority is to find a vaccine.

I remember at school we were inoculated against smallpox, diphtheria and polio...still got faint scars on the shoulder. 

Coronavirus pandemic joins a long list of killers that has stalked humanity

By Tanya Waterworth  Mar 21, 2020

Durban - AS THE world grapples to come to terms with the coronavirus pandemic, there has been much on social media about the “century killers”: 1720 Plague, 1820 Cholera Outbreak, 1920 Spanish Flu and 2020 Covid-19.

While the 1920 Spanish Flu was the deadliest pandemic in history and Covid-19 has yet to end with a final tally, some quick research revealed that the so-called pattern of the centuries is inaccurate, with many plagues and viruses stalking humanity throughout history.

There were two great plagues recorded in earlier times: in 541-542, the Plague of Justinian killed an estimated 25-50million people, or 40% of the population in Europe, Egypt and West Asia. It particularly affected the Byzantine Empire and its grand capital Constantinople, with recurrences until 750.

Justinian I was emperor at the time and although he contracted the disease, he survived. This plague was also the first recorded epidemic and it was believed that it was caused by infected rats brought in on grain ships from Egypt. The most basic, or root level, of existing strains of Yersinia pestis as a whole species are found in Qinghai, China.

From 1347 to 1353 the Black Death, also known as The Great Bubonic plague, took a massive toll on the populations of Europe, Asia and North Africa, with an estimated fatality of up to 200 million and an estimated 60% of the European population. At that point in history, no other recorded plague had such a devastating effect. It was also caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, but was not a direct descendant of the strain from the Justinian Plague. It resulted in three forms of plague - septicemic, pneumonic and bubonic, which was the most common.

It is believed the Black Death travelled from Asia along the Silk Road trade route, reaching Crimea by 1343, and was then carried by fleas on rats that travelled on Genoese merchant ships, spreading the plague across the Mediterranean.

Perhaps it is a coincidence to note that during the 16th century, Mexico (or New Spain as it was known) suffered a ravaging smallpox epidemic in 1520, but far worse was to come, with the Mexican population being hit with a series of Cocoliztli epidemics, the most damaging being 1545-48 during which it is estimated 15 million people, or 80% of the population, died as a result.

While the symptoms of that mysterious new disease were high fevers and bleeding, recent genetic research has shown the initial outbreak may have been partially caused by a salmonella strain, although it was also recorded as having been a viral hemorrhagic fever. Historians have noted that the worst drought in 500 years also hit North America and Mexico in the mid 1500s and have questioned whether that played a role in the epidemic.

The 17th century saw Europe being heavily impacted by plague, with The Great Plague of London 1665-66 being the most famous during which an estimated 200000 people died in London over seven months.

One in four Londoners succumbed to the disease. The plague was followed by the Great Fire of London 1666 which cleansed the city of the plague-carrying rats.

Before that, the Italian Plague of 1629-31 saw an estimated 280000 deaths, while the Great Plague of Vienna had 76000 fatalities.

While the plague appeared to have retreated in the late 17th century, it came back with a vengeance at the start of the 18th century during the Great Northern War (1700-21) with the Great Plague of Marseilles in France in 1820 with an estimated 100000 deaths and a devastating two million deaths during the Persia Plague of 1772.

The 19th century saw the first cholera pandemic take hold in Asia and Europe from 1816-26, claiming 100000 lives. The water-borne disease returned in Asia, Europe and North America from 1829-51, taking a further 100000 lives, with an estimated one million deaths in Russia between 1852-60.

The century ended with a worldwide influenza epidemic from 1889-90 and which claimed one million lives.

And then into the 20th century.

As World War I or the Great War ended in 1918, the deadly Spanish Flu (influenza A virus subtype H1N1) took the world by storm from 1918 until 1920, infecting an estimated 500million people or about a third of the world’s population. The death rate has been estimated to have possibly been as high as 100million.

The other major killer of the 20th century was the HIV/Aids pandemic, which has also killed millions.

But when it comes to flu, the Spanish Flu was the first of two pandemics involving the H1N1 influenza virus, the second being in the 21st century - the 2009 swine flu pandemic - although this was a new strain from a combination of bird, pig and human flu viruses.

While the World Health Organisation put the number of deaths from swine flu at 18500, there have been reports since then that this number may well have been much higher, with some suggesting 10 times higher.

In 2002-04, the Sars coronavirus (Sars-CoV) caused the outbreak of Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in China which recorded more than 700 deaths.

A related virus Sars-CoV-2 is behind the current coronavirus outbreak.

By Friday the total number of deaths worldwide of the current Covid-19 passed 10 000.


 


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