Is herd immunity the best solution

I heard a pretty smart epidemiologist make the argument that herd immunity may be the answer. With a death rate below 60, of somewhere around 1 in a 10000, the risk to this population segment is not markedly increased by emerging.

Given that this constitutes some 85% of the population...who once exposed and immune would constitute no risk to the other vulnerable 15%....it probably sets up enough dead ends for the virus to die out.

This could all happen fairly quickly given how infectious the virus is. Perhaps quickly enough to prevent a second wave.

The theory of shelter in place assumes a wave 2 is inevitable and the really vulnerable are best protected by protecting everyone. It was also predicated on the risk of overwhelming the hospitals.

But hospitals are getting less patients than predicted and are increasingly on top of things. So if the vaccine is as uncertain as it seems, it’s worth asking the question whether going for herd immunity isn’t the wiser course.

Now doubts are emerging about false positives in the US......which would overstate herd immunity. There are going to be many recriminations before this is all over.  But the German numbers were very similar using different tests, so perhaps this is a rounding error.

If anything, man cannot be trusted to adhere to the rules.

Self isolation or quarantine at home for those who have the virus is absurd. These folk are walking among us. There is no one policing them. 

They should be rounded up and isolated by the government. Completely removed from society till they recover or pass on to the great beyond.

Back in the day, lepers were completely isolated. The were forced to live in camps outside the city. They were not allowed to go on a walk about. Have we lost our minds?

Also ... the government should enforce the wearing of masks when out on the street. It's one of the first things they should have put in place. Simple logic it seems is still not a strength of theirs.

It's amazing to see how many tough guys are still out there. They refuse to wear masks. It takes just one stray droplet. Talk about stupidity.

There are a lot of rumours going around about vaccines and possible cures. We've been listening to this nonsense for months now. The antibodies of those who've recovered have been taken and worked on. It's produced nothing so far.  

Without total isolation there'll be no flattening the curve. This bug isn't just going to die off.

We've seen an increase in the numbers infected. Last week we saw 50 new cases in a day. This week it's up into the hundreds ... everyday.

Last week we heard of a single death. This week it's up to 4 overnight.

It's time to face reality. The life as we know it is over. Spreading false hope around isn't helping anyone.

The lockdowns are not going to work ever,  It will inevitably lead to starvation especially when agricultural production fails and produce does  not reach the factories  and markets.   Poor people are already starving,  

Without total isolation there'll be no flattening the curve. This bug isn't just going to die off.

SA won't survive another month of total isolation. People are already desperate. The option now for millions of South Africans is take your chances with the virus, or starve. With one you have at least a 97% chance of survival, up to 99+% if you're younger than 50. The other one kills everybody, regardless of age or health.

It's inevitable.

As I said about a month back. Keep high risk groups isolated while the rest get it and forget it.

The transmission rate is quite low 1.25 to 1.7 from what I read. 

At that rate, and with a vastly immune population, it'll disappear. 

Seriously, world leaders need to spend a week playing RTS games. 

Good news. My friend in Spain got it, showed no symptoms and received her positive antibody results yesterday. She's back at work and dealing with patients. What a soldier she is.

Yes, I agree. This country can't survive another month.

The lock down was a mistake. The country should never have been forced into it to begin with.

Those infected should have been removed from society. Completely isolated from us in state run facilities. The rest of us should have been left to continue our lives ... to work ... keeping our shoddy, 3rd world, African economy ticking over. The only addition should have been the enforcement of masks while away from home. 

As I said ... the curve will not be flattened without total isolation of those infected. While they are allowed to roam around among us, this bug has fresh meat to scout out and will move from host to host infecting as far as it goes, thus prolonging it's life.

Yes, this was a copy and paste job, and even worse with so many restrictive measures that make no sense. Why, for example, could internet businesses not continue selling as usual regardless of the product? There is no human contact apart from the couriers who collect and deliver the parcels, and they have their own strict sanitary rules. Much safer than going allowing 50-100 people into a grocery store. It's almost as if the ANC wanted to damage the economy as much as they could. And perhaps they did want that. More people who have to rely on them for aid = more votes, no?

Another company claiming to have the anti-body test

https://mologic.co.uk/covid-19-update-17-april-2020/

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/mologic-launches-new-lab-based-covid-19-antibody-tests

Wow!!

I didn't realize that internet businesses were also brought to a grinding halt.

Where's the logic in that?

This ignorant Government is oppressing it's citizens just cause it can. It's not as if these restrictions are preventing some cataclysmic event.

We already see large groups of people breaking into stores to loot food. Silly Cyril has now made R350.00 pm available to families in need. Seriously?? 

This country's going to erupt into utter chaos. Surely Cyril can see this?

Only big online businesses like Takealot operate, and they can only sell "essentials". Couriers aren't allowed to carry anything other than food and medicine and hygiene products , so if you have an online business that sells something outside of that criteria, your goods can't be transported, hence you can't trade.

One hears talk of the apocalypse ... of the great oppression ... of suffering like never experienced before.

Could there be substance to these "fairy tales" ... ?

I never thought I'd see the day. These are crazy time we're living in. Makes one wonder.

You be safe, Pakie. The world's up and gone mad and we're still in it.

Thanks CC, you too.