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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it.

New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it.

Started by Denny32 REPLIES563 VIEWS· 08 Apr 2020, 08:03
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DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 08:03
#1
08 Apr 2020, 08:03#1

It’s been less than two weeks since New Zealand imposed a coronavirus lockdown so strict that swimming at the beach and hunting in bushland were banned. They’re not essential activities, plus we’ve been told not to do anything that could divert emergency services’ resources.

People have been walking and biking strictly in their neighbourhoods, lining up six feet apart while waiting to go one-in-one-out into grocery stores, and joining swaths of the world in discovering the vagaries of homeschooling.

It took only 10 days for signs that the approach here — “elimination” rather than the “containment” goal of the United States and other Western countries — is working. 

The number of new cases has fallen for two consecutive days, despite a huge increase in testing, with 54 confirmed or probable cases reported Tuesday. That means the number of people who have recovered, 65, exceeds the number of daily infections.

“The signs are promising,” Ashley Bloomfield, the director-general of health, said Tuesday.

The speedy results have led to calls to ease the lockdown conditions, even a little, for the four-day Easter holiday, especially as summer lingers on.

But Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is adamant that New Zealand will complete four weeks of lockdown — two full 14-day incubation cycles — before letting up. She has, however, given the Easter Bunny special dispensation to work this weekend.

How has New Zealand, a country I still call home after 20 years abroad, controlled its outbreak so quickly?

When I arrived here a month ago, travelling from the epicentre of China via the hotspot of South Korea, I was shocked that officials did not take my temperature at the airport. I was told simply to self-isolate for 14 days (I did).

But with the coronavirus tearing through Italy and spreading in the United States, this heavily tourism-reliant country — it gets about four million international visitors a year, almost as many as its total population — did the previously unthinkable: it shut its borders to foreigners on March 19.

Two days later, Ardern delivered a televised address from her office — the first time since 1982 that an Oval Office-style speech had been given — announcing a coronavirus response alert plan involving four stages, with full lockdown being Level 4.

A group of influential leaders got on the phone with her the following day to urge moving to Level 4.

“We were hugely worried about what was happening in Italy and Spain,” said one of them, Stephen Tindall, founder of the Warehouse, New Zealand’s largest retailer.

“If we didn’t shut down quickly enough, the pain was going to go on for a very long time,” he said in a phone interview. “It’s inevitable that we will have to shut down anyway, so we would rather it be sharp and short.”

On Monday, March 23, Ardern delivered another statement and gave the country 48 hours to prepare for a Level 4 lockdown. “We currently have 102 cases,” she said. “But so did Italy once.”

From that Wednesday night, everyone had to stay at home for four weeks unless they worked in an essential job such as health care, or were going to the supermarket or exercising near their home.

A few hours before midnight, my phone sounded a siren as it delivered a text alert: “Act as if you have COVID-19. This will save lives,” it said. “Let’s all do our bit to unite against COVID-19.”

From the earliest stages, Ardern and her team have spoken in simple language: Stay home. Don’t have contact without anyone outside your household “bubble.” Be kind. We’re all in this together.

She’s usually done this from the podium of news conferences where she has discussed everything from the price of cauliflowers to wage subsidies. But she also regularly gives updates and answers questions on Facebook, including one done while sitting at home — possibly on her bed — in a sweatshirt.

There have been critics and rebels. The police have been ordering surfers out of the waves. The health minister was caught — and publicly chastised by Ardern, who said she would have fired him if it weren’t disruptive to the crisis response — for mountain biking and taking his family to the beach.

But there has been a sense of collective purpose. The police phone line for nonemergencies has been overwhelmed with people calling to “dob in,” as we say here, others they think are breaching the rules.

The response has been notably apolitical. The centre-right National Party has clearly made a decision not to criticize the government’s response, and in fact to help it.



PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
08 Apr 2020, 08:26
#2
08 Apr 2020, 08:26#2

@ Denny

A friend of mine that is living in kiwilanD gave me some.peculiar news.

He runs a carpentry business and his wife also has her own small business. 

He said that the government told them that the lockdown was for three weeks. The strange part was that they were each laid over $30k by the government almost immediately.

He told me that a) he didn't need the money and b) that was three months worth of revenue for his business...not 3 weeks.

Where are they getting this money?

You extrapolate that out, over even a smallish population, and you end up with some massive figures. Where is it coming from?

Anyhow my mate is mighty suspicious of it all.

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 08:47
#3
08 Apr 2020, 08:47#3

These are unusual times crying out for extraordinary action, who knows....Australia is shaping up for a $1 Trillion deficit.

It's more than likely that both governments are thinking a 6 month lockdown not 3 weeks.

It's short term pain for long term gain. 

Trouble is, the way I see it we need the whole world to achieve the same results if there's to be a world economic recovery. The USA seems to be lagging big time. Unlike NZ and Oz they've opted for containment as opposed to the elimination of the virus.

.

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 09:22
#4
08 Apr 2020, 09:22#4

Cloudy

Yes.....the strategy while there is no vaccine available is to eliminate the virus with a blunt instrument, Oz and NZ are repeating benefit from their approach but at the same time people have to be fed and businesses have to be sustained. 

Everything comes at a cost and every cost comes with a penalty.

We'll pick up the tab later is what they're saying.

She'll be right mate 

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
08 Apr 2020, 09:25
#5
08 Apr 2020, 09:25#5

My doctor says it takes 40 (might be 42) days of social distancing to have an effect on any epidemic.  With this virus having a much longer incubation period without showing symptoms, that 40 days are becoming exponentially longer. That's apparently in virology 101...so this 3 week shut down is BS...funny how the whole world is singing from the same hymn book...

Lots of other inconsistencies in basic logic too. The sheeple are being taken for a ride...again...to what end?

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 09:34
#6
08 Apr 2020, 09:34#6

"so this 3 week shut down is BS...funny how the whole world is singing from the same hymn book..."

Everyone has to sing from the same hymn book......therein lies the success of elimination.

If you read my above post you'll notice that Oz is talking 6 months. 

You have to realise that everyone is setting sail in unchartered waters, Oz is now talking about a Phase 4 once the 3 weeks is over......what that means I don't know but it seems obvious to me that the response will be measured on the results gained after the 3 week initial social distancing period.


PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
08 Apr 2020, 09:34
#7
08 Apr 2020, 09:34#7

A world economy run through the dirt with national debt skyrocketing is hardly a short term pain. In fact, quite the opposite. 

We'll talk again if this all results in recession, then a depression. 

Starvation and other diseases will kill more people than this virus ever would have, if countries stay on lockdown for an extended period.

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
08 Apr 2020, 09:38
#8
08 Apr 2020, 09:38#8

Cloudy, 

My friend got his cash the day after lockdown started. He'd shown no decline in revenue and in total, his household received close to $70k.

It's him, his wife and a toddler. 

$70k is enough to feed them for ages.

But sure, don't ask questions, just accept the handout and worry about paying it back later. 

Sounds like a brilliant strategy.

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 09:42
#9
08 Apr 2020, 09:42#9

The choice is stark...….people dying on our pavements and streets or recessions in most countries.

Question is how best to survive.

There is also the Trump solution of containment not elimination which I've noted in my above post.

What exactly is your solution?

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 09:48
#10
08 Apr 2020, 09:48#10

And the good thing is that everything is measured...….these are unchartered waters. If for example NZ reverses the curve in the space of another month or so then the strategy will change, there'll be a relaxing of the rules and people might even get back to work.

CR
CrusadersfanPro3,099 posts
08 Apr 2020, 10:12
#11
08 Apr 2020, 10:12#11

Plum your mate has it wrong, I am a business owner and have claimed this assistance.

The rules are 

1) it is to cover up to 12 weeks of wages

2) The money has to be paid to employees, its not just cash for the business owner to spend however they like

3) You need a drop in income of 30% over the same period last year. Dont think for 1 minute that the Inland revenue wont be checking businesses books in the next year or two and claiming it back where ones don't meet the criteria

4) For $70,000 he will need to employ approx 10 people full time to get this amount, and he will have had to supply names, IRD numbers etc you cant just make it up as they have detailed records of who you have working for you.

5) The business is supposed to pay minimum 80% of the staffs wage or at the least they must pay them the $585.70 if they work over 20 hour a week.


CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
08 Apr 2020, 10:29
#12
08 Apr 2020, 10:29#12

Duplication

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
08 Apr 2020, 10:29
#13
08 Apr 2020, 10:29#13

Not sure of anything at all,  how long can you isolate people without causing psychological problems - since families are confined to their homes.  The other problem is that  is is fairly easy to stop entry into New Zealand - bitt not so in countries like the USA.

In the USA there was a problem - the very hate-filled political scene caused a major undermining of any constructive Government effort,   While the problems were starting any measure to stop travelers to and from China was immediately called racist.   When Trump banned to stop from the EU countries - the Governor of New York State sued him in an effort to stop the Banning Order,  

The Mayor of New York caused further havoc by keeping the schools open even when it was clear that New York was under siege by the virus,   That effectively undermined everything the Government of the USA tried to limit the impact of the virus,

What I am seeing is that in countries where the issue did not become a party-political issue amd there was unity of purpose - eg in Australia and New Zealand - the effect was better containment of the virus.   

In SA the problem is in fact severe and the success of the government will be limited,

My own opinion is that the virus may be contained for a while - but not eliminated,  Unless there is a combination of drugs used as a short term  aid in preventing people from dying  here are two needs of major importance from a medical point of view:-

*   To find a cure for treatment of the  already infected and sick people; and

*   To develop an effective vaccine to prevent the virus from spreading.

All I can add to our NZ and Aussie friends is keep safe and  do not endanger yourselves.  I am sure the present miserable situation in life will not last,               .        

BO
bobbok...Captain10,129 posts
08 Apr 2020, 10:29
#14
08 Apr 2020, 10:29#14

Ja Plum, your tjommie's probably a crook

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
08 Apr 2020, 10:30
#15
08 Apr 2020, 10:30#15

Sader, 

I don't think he's wrong.

He just gave me the basics. Never mentioned employee wages etc.

And said he was mighty concerned about national debt and that he didn't actually need the money...neither did his wife.

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
08 Apr 2020, 11:01
#16
08 Apr 2020, 11:01#16

"Ja Plum, your tjommie's probably a crook"

Well, he is a Kiwi.

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
08 Apr 2020, 11:15
#17
08 Apr 2020, 11:15#17

"If you read my above post you'll notice that Oz is talking 6 months"

That was my point...the 3 weeks is just an initial trial to test the waters of sorts...but they can't tell that to the general public because it would start riots in the streets. Even locking down for only another 3 weeks will totally destroy what's left of the struggling South African Economy. We simply can't afford to do it...and the most vulnerable of the population aren't adhering to the guidelines anyway.

There are logical steps that can be taken without totally destroying the world economy....but at what price?

I'm glad I'm not the one who will have to make the hard choices. 

I do not claim to have the answers, but I know that we are not being told the whole story and I'm not convinced all the actions by all the decision makers have the best interests of humanity at heart. 

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 11:35
#18
08 Apr 2020, 11:35#18

Draad I don't share your suspicions and may I say it's not the first time you've raised your suspicions and distrust on a certain matter but that aside tell me your plan of action.

"There are logical steps that can be taken without totally destroying the world economy....but at what price?"

The "logical steps" you mention is already in place. 

Either a country goes along with what NZ, Australia and South Africa as logical examples in trying to eliminate the virus with a blunt instrument while simultaneously pouring money into the economy  or you go the Trump way of containment but still pouring 2Trillion dollars into the economy. 

You know, you all carry on and when I say you, I mean the Trump fan club, thing is you don't actually provide a better solution. Just like Trump there's a 50/50 flying around, you sing from his hymn book which I'm afraid to say is going to end up with the USA chasing it's tail if he persists with that strategy.

But go ahead, don't mind me, I'm just a Bumkin...oops Bumpkin from 25 years behind Australia...what's your solution?

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 11:47
#19
08 Apr 2020, 11:47#19

BTW has everyone had their say? It's been a healthy debate but I'm afraid we'll have to shut it down before the Jihadi rocks up and fucks it up. 

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
08 Apr 2020, 12:09
#20
08 Apr 2020, 12:09#20

You forget to mention...…with regards to success against the Corona virus she and NZ have the runs on the board.

Case closed.

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
08 Apr 2020, 13:50
#21
08 Apr 2020, 13:50#21

My solution, as always, would be to avoid debt at all costs. 

Unfortunately people just can't say no to handout.

...even if they don't know where it's coming from or what the interest will be.

CL
CleanCutPro9,905 posts
08 Apr 2020, 15:12
#22
08 Apr 2020, 15:12#22

Funny, my son's girlfriend tells a differnent story.

She speaks of people not caring at all about the lock down ... about people carrying on as usual ... not bothering to stay at home. and that the curve has not been flattened at all ... much like here ... and the USA.

Everyone's walking around with the "it won't happen to me" mentality, according to her.


 

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
08 Apr 2020, 15:20
#23
08 Apr 2020, 15:20#23
There is no way that you can compare the NZ situation to any of the big international metro’s, let alone countries. According to stats.nz the monthly international arrivals for NZ as a country in January 2020 was just over 400,000. I haven’t even done much of a search but the closest I could quickly get was the international arrivals for NYC in the whole of 2019. It was 6.2m or 510,000 average per month for one single city. NZ has a population of just under 5m people on just over 103m square miles. NYC has a population of just over 8m on only 302 square miles.
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
08 Apr 2020, 15:25
#24
08 Apr 2020, 15:25#24

Lets drop a truth bomb on dense who should go and live in nz as he hasn"t any Ozzie smarts:

Ex The Left wing globalist Guardian:


New Zealand passes 1,000 coronavirus cases as PM chastises 'idiots' ignoring lockdownHey Cloudy please stay indoors! Lock her Up!!!

Coronavirus cases in New Zealand have passed the 1,000 mark, with health officials reporting 89 new cases on Sunday.

The country, which has been in lockdown since 25 March, has now recorded 1,039 confirmed cases, with one death. There are 15 people in hospital with Covid-19, including three in intensive care.

At a briefing on Sunday afternoon, Ardern praised those who had complied with the lockdown but said there were “still some people I would charitably describe as idiots ”, citing a man in Christchurch who filmed himself coughing on people. That oaks was no doubt crusaderfan! Lock him up as well!!






MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
08 Apr 2020, 16:51
#25
08 Apr 2020, 16:51#25

Well South Africa at 0.6 deaths per million and 29 cases per million pop......is doing better than Oz at 2 deaths per million and 236 cases per million pop.....or NZ at 0.2 deaths per million and 251 cases per million pop.


Which of course points out it’s probably a summer climate effect ....although NZ as an Island nation with limited travel to neighbors, is in a good place. Argentina and Brazil also have good numbers with no lockdowns.


So no....the lockdown has probably played a very small role. But I’m sure if we all repeat ‘today’s pain for tomorrow’s gain’ in unison it will help.

AJ
AJHPro3,183 posts
08 Apr 2020, 16:54
#26
08 Apr 2020, 16:54#26

All I wish to say is thank you that we do not have Biden or Obama heading the attack on this issue.

World leaders are trying their best and unfortunately you folks are mostly doing what you do best.

If you cannot provide a cure for this virus just KEEP QUIET.

Your two cents is worth a lot less than it was a month ago and keeps going down.

Got it.


DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
08 Apr 2020, 19:49
#27
08 Apr 2020, 19:49#27

Well, if NZ and Australia has the money to keep on social distancing, it's great. South Africa was in dire trouble even without Corona. We cannot afford to shut everything down for even 3 weeks, never mind 3 -6 months. Who is going to feed the unemployed masses if the low income employed are also sitting at home?

And the majority of the people in the townships are ignoring the lockdown anyway.

We know that more than 80% of the population are at a low risk of getting seriously ill. Isolate the less than 20% at risk and let the 80% continue under strict guidelines.

South Africa has 55M people, we may lose many if we don't curb this effectively...and we aren't because of various reasons...we must try something different or we might lose even more lives. I don't see this lockdown as being effective. Our populace don't have the capacity to properly adhere to the restrictions, so persisting with something you know is failing is stupid.

What is going to happen if the masses run out of food?

I see Ace has already announced that South Africa should not borrow from the IMF, but rather from the pension funds...the government is simply not capable of running things. This is going to seriously bancrupt my country.

What a desaster!


DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
08 Apr 2020, 19:51
#28
08 Apr 2020, 19:51#28

Africa will have to ride this out to the best of our ability...shutting down for months isn't a viable option for us.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
08 Apr 2020, 19:58
#29
08 Apr 2020, 19:58#29
Masks, social distancing, no large gatherings, quarantine for the vulnerable......open things up with only the group under 40 and then ratchet up in age as you get experience.
Hell we may find we don’t need the old  talking heads....and start by quarantining Fauci.
AJ
AJHPro3,183 posts
08 Apr 2020, 20:08
#30
08 Apr 2020, 20:08#30
Finally someone with a logical plan.Moz you and PDT are on the same page.
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
08 Apr 2020, 21:52
#31
08 Apr 2020, 21:52#31

So Fauci and his fear mongering bandits said there could be 2 million deaths. 

They said the death rate was 3.4% but unlike flu they excluded in the Calc asymptomatic cases.

Then they dropped the figure saying 200, 000 could die. 

Then the dropped ot to 83, 000. So from 2 million to 83,000 drop in 8 days. 

Beeno said that still to many. So now they drop it a further 25% to just over 60,000 predicted deaths.

That oaks will drop even further.

Florida governor De Santos has ordered 1 million doses of HCQ.

HCQ is now starting to be used all over. 

LEFTIST CNBC just said their poll shows Trump at his highest level ever with his management of the economy also at its highest level ever. See Breitbart News.

The demonrats tried to weaponize the Wuhan Virus and once again failed dismally. 

Again watch a Trump presser. No wonder the demonrats don't want to show these presser. Trump is in complete charge and makes fools of the gotcha twits.  

So we have Trump rising in the polls and the truth getting out about the virus, WHO, Cuomo, China etc. 

The dismal role played by demonrats is also being fully exposed. 

Hahahahaha man it's great to be supporting the best President America has ever had. 

Maybe we here in SA will get help from America in due course.

No country can close down their economy more than a short while and especially South Africa. 



PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
08 Apr 2020, 23:32
#32
08 Apr 2020, 23:32#32

So this started with one person, about four months ago.

Now there are 1.5 million infected people, that we know of, the actual figure likely being much higher.

It can't be contained. Isn't that obvious by now? 

The question is, are we gonna bankrupt the world in the process of fighting a drawn out losing battle?

"Never let a good crisis go to waste," says the banker to his pal the politician ;)

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
08 Apr 2020, 23:33
#33
08 Apr 2020, 23:33#33

"vulnerable......open things up with only the group under 40 "

With some of us over 40's guiding and pulling the strings from a distance....I'm close to 50 and will have no problem going back to work. ATM my country's economic health is more important to me than my own. Rather die fighting the cause than starving to death in a post apocalyptic world where everything collapsed into anarchy. 

— END OF THREAD —

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