JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember50,00060,00070,00080,00090,0002020Deaths have spiked afterthe flu season due to covid-192020Deaths have spiked afterthe flu season due to covid-1920192019201820182017201720162016Normal rangeof deaths2009-19Normal rangeof deaths2009-19
As you can see from the chart....Wuhan peaks much h igher than the flu. It’s more like 2017, 2018 and 2019 flu seasons combined....or double the bad 2017 season. Not the Black Death, or cholera but a serious disease requiring a thoughtful response.
Japan, Korea and Florida seem to have done it right.
This is some of the first good data we have seen....inferring the effect of Wuhan from the excess deaths over the trend death rate. I extracted this from the Economist which is usually pretty solid quantitatively.
Mozart
This seems to be applicable to the flu issue only or am I wrong? If that be the case - are all deaths linked to virus not also influenced by other morbidities?
Flu deaths are also linked to other morbidities Mike....but you are right, this really doesn’t address that. This addresses the question of what the real death rate is.
We have come at it from the perspective of identified Wuhan deaths. Trouble with that is some may have died while incidentally having the virus....others may have died outside hospitals from the virus and not been identified.
That said I have from the start believed the Diamond Princess is a good indication....everybody tested, 712 cases, 13 deaths. That is a 2% death rate in an old population in close quarters. If you fiddle with the age results that number is consistent with a 0.3% death rate in the general population.
The methodology used in the Economist approach is to infer the death rate by looking at divergences from the trend rate. This is the method used to estimate flu deaths and viewed in a focused time frame, should isolate other factors.
..........
Shark on the virus returning in winter....it hasn’t left yet and so far the effects of warmer weather are still uncertain. If that’s true it’s less seasonal than we think.
As for it becoming more deadly....hard to say. Some Italian doctors think it’s getting weaker and we are getting better at treating it:
‘ Doctors have observed that the coronavirus case-fatality rate seems to have decreased considerably since the early days of the pandemic. But a pre-publication study from Italian universities and local public-health authorities comparing the case-fatality rates in two provinces (Ferrara and Pescara) during March and April is the first to show this might be true.
After adjusting for age and comorbidities, the study found the overall death rate declined by some 40% from March to April with huge reductions in those over age 80 (from 36.3% to 16.1%), and subjects with hypertension (23% to 12.1%), diabetes (30.3% to 8.4%), cardiovascular disease (31.5% to 12.1%), COPD (29.7% to 11.4%) and renal disease (32.3% to 11.5%).’
“ Bill Gates says respiratory diseases is worse in Winter. (like Corona). “
Why has the medical profession never thought about asking Bill Gates about seasonal respiratory diseases? They have been fumbling around in the dark for centuries without making the link? Then, out of the blue, a computer nerd gives them the answer that they’ve been looking for for ages. Brilliant Gates.
I mentioned a while ago on this forum..... that the people who think that this virus is just like the flu, are incredibly naïve..... and I also said that they must only wait until the end of this month to see just how utterly devastating this virus is going to become in SA..... never mind by Oct - Nov..... just the end of June will be enough to showcase the voraciousness of this virus
I would so easily and happily have welcomed full criticism for being entirely wrong on that statement..... but sadly no
Now, over 5 500 new cases in just the last 2 days alone...… with total national Coronavirus cases having doubled in just the last 2 weeks alone, and so have the total deaths.
These people who call this the flu, have absolutely no idea how potent this virus is, and what it is doing to even the most fit and healthy of people...… it is frightening.....listening to people comparing it to needles... or glass.. in their lungs.. whenever they breath....and watching ultra athletes only managing to walk 5 meters before having zero energy to breath or move
You are doing a disservice to your friends and colleagues by telling them it is just "the flu"
DA, it is much similar to the flu in the way it spreads...like the flu, but much worse...faster...and like the flu, it's near impossible to completely contain it.
I don't think that the lockdown measures can completely contain it and I think some measures are plain stupid, while other crucial measures are neglected in SouthAfrica...Terrible as this thing is, there's not much we can do about it ATM. Be as cautious and sensible as possible under the conditions and hope (and pray for some of us) for the best.
This is a natural disaster that humanity must weather, but this is minuscule in comparison with other natural and man made desasters of the past and others that will emergein the future...pity that lots of politicians and their tenderpreneur buddies are exploiting the situation to line their pockets...again.
Mozart thanks for that information. It indicates that the virus did not necessarily caused the death of people with morbidities, It indicates that the deaths basically relates to manipulation of the death rate from people with morbidities showed a massive decline this year if compared to the statistics on deaths last year in March and April.
The fact is that the expected death rate for 2020 forecasted indicated an expected increase of 1,8% from the 2019 figures made at the time when the virus was not a factor. So your figures did not take that aspect into account.
For politicians it make sense since they can use it in their campaigns - but from a statistical point of view it is total garbage.
@Ceradunce, many scientists are predicting a second wave at the start of Winter, so it looks like they are using the same hypothesis as Gates. Why else would they have gotten to this conclusion?
Just search in Google for respiratory diseases winter,
and it will be a good education session from yours truly.
SB
The scientists with rare exceptions have been totally wro ng in the whole scenario that one tends to believe that they are guessing and have no real basis for what they say may happen.
I admire Gates for the development of computers in our daily lives, but for the rest he is scoundrel making money from the factories producing vaccines and other medicines which he owned or had a majority shareholding in. He makes massive contributions to assist in vaccine production, he gets more back through the backdoor than he in fact contributed,
Well done New Zealand where the Corona epidemic is something of the past.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/
It's relatively easy to isolate a couple of islands with a rather small population ...a different thing to mantain the isolation indefinitely...well, good on them, now we can atleast watch a bit of rugby again. Must be close to the highest advertising revenue matches in years. All rugga fans across the world will tune in.
"and like the flu, it's near impossible to completely contain it."
"I don't think that the lockdown measures can completely contain it"
"This is a natural disaster that humanity must weather"
I agree with all of these statements Db
However, at the same time, I also believe that to contain this virus, even to some small degree, then you do need at least some minimum requirements in place, to be able to go back to normal life and walk in public spaces or places, and one of those mandatory minimum requirements should be to wear a face mask...…
I honestly do not believe that a simple compulsory act like that, is too much to ask....
Take it off at home..... take it off in your car.... take it off in your office..... I really don't care...…..but whilst you are standing in a queue behind me in the shop, at least have that on your face whilst you are breathing / talking near me