Rooinek and SB must be seriously disappointed about their Anti-Trump campaign

In 2016 the result showed that in the presidential election in Congressional District 25 in California Clinton won in that District by 6% and in the 2018 the DP candidate with the seat in Congress by 9%,   The DP member elected in 2018 resigned from Congress because of a scandal normal with all Democrats and a by-election was held on Tuesday and the result was that the Republican Party candidate won the seat by 12%,

Can you please explain why the Republicans won this seat in Congress - where 40% if the voters are Latino's and Blacks?  It would also calls for an explanation why the two of you claim that the Trump Presidency is doomed and he will lose the election in 2020.  Maybe the voters ar e just sick of the maladministration of California by the Democrats.   

It must be really funny that the rednecks in what is really a wealthy suburb has taken over the seat,   I do not expect any comments from Rooinek and SB on this one though.  

There was a 21% swing to the Republicans in the by-election compared to the 2018 election.  If that is the case throughout California  70% o the present California House members are in serious danger of losing their seats in 2020. 

Right Mike, this looks to be a shattering blow for the rapidly sinking demonrats.

See that the demonrat candidate has now conceded. The vote count is not complete so we could possibly see 120% of the district voting and massive ballot harvesting fraud - but they would probably save that one for November.

Before the whole Biden Coup Attempt saga broke only 54% of demonrats supported Biden for President. He is probably well under 50% by now with record levels of lack of enthusiasm.

One funny aspect was the fake news speculating that Trump's endorsement of the GOP candidate was hinder the guys chances. Hahahahahahahahahahahaha

Winning, Winning and more winning.

Read this account:

Democrat Christy Smith conceded the special election race for California's 25th Congressional District to Republican Mike Garcia on Wednesday, marking the first time Republicans will retake a Democratic-held congressional seat in the state since 1998 -- and, Republicans said, indicating that enthusiasm for President Trump is strong heading into the 2020 elections.

Garcia, a former Navy combat pilot, had a 12-point edge over Smith, a state assemblywoman, as of late Tuesday night in the contest for the swing-district seat vacated by Katie Hill after her resignation. Trump had declared victory on Twitter early Wednesday morning, but Smith initially held off on acknowledging defeat, as an unknown number of ballots remained uncounted.

"While it's critical that we ensure every vote is counted and recorded, we believe that the current tally shows Mike Garcia is the likely victor in the May 12 special election," Smith said in a statement posted to Facebook on Wednesday afternoon. "As such, I'd like to congratulate him."

Trump lost the district by 6 percentage points in 2016. He went out of his way to promote Garcia in recent weeks as strong on guns and immigration, and some Democrats had hoped he would be a liability in the race. Former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and other high-profile Democrats all lined up behind Smith. (Yep oaks it was a bad mismatch. Obummer is done - jail should be awaiting him)

The seat became vacant last year after the resignation of Hill, who stepped down after admitting to an affair with a campaign worker and the House opened an ethics probe into an allegation that she was involved with a member of her congressional staff, which Hill denied.

Smith and Garcia topped a crowded field of candidates in the state’s March 3 primary and advanced to separate elections: One, on Tuesday, to fill the remainder of Hill’s two-year term, and a second in November for the full, two-year term starting in 2021.

Two years ago, Democrats picked up seven Republican House seats in California, helping the party retake control of the chamber. The GOP now holds just six of California’s 53 House seats.

The 25th District anchored in Los Angeles County, with a slice of Ventura County with the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on its western end, has a Democratic registration edge and Hill captured the seat by 9 points in 2018.

"So proud of Navy combat vet @MikeGarcia2020 for his outstanding Election Night!" remarked New York GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, as initial results came in on Tuedsay. "Proud to support him! I know he worked incredibly hard A LOT of swing district newly elected House Dems nervously watched these results. Big trouble for Nancy Pelosi!"

Added Trump: "Big Congressional win in California for Mike Garcia, taking back a seat from the Democrats. This is the first time in many years that a California Dem seat has flipped back to a Republican. Also, Tom Tiffany beat his Democrat rival BIG in Wisconsin. Two great Congressional WINS!"

Meanwhile, Trump himself put up historic numbers in the Nebraska presidential primary on Tuesday, more than doubling his 2016 total in the state. That led GOP Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel to tout what she called surging "enthusiasm" for the president's reelection.

In Wisconsin, Republican Tom Tiffany, a state senator endorsed by Trump, easily won a special congressional election Tuesday in the state's heavily conservative, rural 7th Congressional District.

Tiffany’s win over Democrat Tricia Zunker in northern Wisconsin’s 7th District comes in the state’s second election amid the coronavirus pandemic the past five weeks. Tiffany will replace former reality TV star Sean Duffy, a Republican who retired in September.

The district, which covers all or parts of 26 counties, has been vacant since Duffy’s retirement.

Trump won Wisconsin by less than a point, but carried the district by 20 points, in 2016. Trump backed Tiffany in the race, but due to the pandemic was unable to campaign in person for him.

Poor Redrooi and sharktwit are probably at their shrinks right now seeking stronger medication to alleviate their depression!

No comment from the two board clowns but doubtless they read what Mike posted.

Beerno

I had a look at the California results in the last House election and came to the conclusion that of the District 25 results now is compared to 2018 that -

*   circa 70% of the House seats from California held by the Democrats would become marginal battleground seats; and

*    the Democrats are in real danger of losing circa 40%  of the seats they held at present - ie circa 20 seats - in the November 2020 election.

If it happens - it would mean that of the 53 California seats 27 will be held by the Republicans and 26 by the Democrats,   The proviso is that guarding against voter fraud by the DP must be 100% and strenuous measures be taken to ensure that it be eliminated.  

SB

Another dreamworld story - but where is the explanation I asked you for in the case of the above by-election?   

Let me explain something further,   In the Congressional District the voters are circa 40% Black and Latino  and there was a 21% swing from the Democrats to the Republicans.  Based on the above.   The Democrat got 44,1% if the vote and the Republican 55,9% of the vote.   So lets look at the make-up of the vote as a whole and an indication of the Black and Latino vote as well.  In California about 55% of the Whites routinely vote Democrat and 45% Republican.

Mike CNN polls do not favour Presi dent Trump as they load them with demorat voters. For what its worth CNN had a poll re the crucial battle ground states

A new CNN poll of registered voters shows President Trump trouncing former Vice President Joe Biden in key swing states -  in the battleground states, 52% favor Trump and 45% Biden,"

Biden by now could be under 40% and going lower.

Mike I have big doubts about Biden being the demonrat nominee. Add in the Ukraine and China quid pro quo, the lies and the senility and the scumbag is done. Keep an eye on Crooked Hillary. Hillary though knows she will face withering examination. She is fighting desperately to not testify under oath in court and make available FOIA info

ThIngs can only get worse for the demonrats

DuplIcate

DuplIcate

What is more worrisome for the DP is a potential swing away from them in the Black and Latino vote.   That may sink them in some  states like Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut, Colorado, New Mexico and  Nevada - while losing in Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire and  Maine would be a certainty,

What is more important is what the Senate and House would look like after the election.  My guess as big a loss as may be happening in the presidential election will happen in the election for those two bodies.

Nobody wants a one Party State - but the answer is not in the Republican Party -it is in the Democrats,   They better get rid of the corrupt junk and semi-communists that now rules the party and move back to where they were as a centrist party and not a party parroting the communist fringes,  The best thing is to get rid of corruption in the Party and the Party should fire most of its present leadership in both the House and the Senate - all of them are crooked swamp creatures,          .      

"Apparently the red states are starting to become hotspots, so it may see many of them vote for Democrats who will use science to make decisions."

What utter horse sh!t! All they do is over regulate and over tax, while scraping the cream off the top. They are good at talking the talk, but that's where it ends. Follow the money. 

“ I thought the election was in November? “ 

It is. Ever heard of a by-election?

“ From what I do understand the popular vote is almost meaningless.  “

Yep. You’re right. You don’t known enough of the US voting system.

The popular is totally meaningless. Just like it is totally meaningless under the Westminster system. 

They have an electoral college. Something the founding fathers put into the Constitution to protect one or two states getting in charge and then take control of Congress forever without any protection for the “smaller” States. Coincidentally, every time the Dems have lost and election their first vow is to get rid of the Electoral College when they retake the WH. Strangely they never have a problem with it when they win. 

BTW, the popular vote also has no bearing in the U.K.

They don’t have seats like they have in the Westminster system. They have voting districts. 

On the popular vote... The only system where the popular vote means anything is where you have Proportional Representation like in SA, and look how well that is working out. None of this clowns in the SA parliament is accountable to any constituant. There are no checks on them. They can sleep and snore in parliament as much as they like. Their parties put them on those benches, not the constituents. If the constituents of Uxbridge didn’t put Boris back in as their MP in December he would have been stuffed. Out of his job as PM. Saw what happened to that Whatshernameagain floozy who was the leader of the Libdems. She lost her seat in the GE and she is gone. Under proportional representation she would not have had to defend any seat in the GE. As party leader she would have remained in parliament, no matter how crap she was in the eyes of the constituents in her home town.

“  If more of California is voting for Republican, the only reason I could see for this is to end the lockdown.“

Nah. It will have more to do with Dems getting more and more disgruntled with the likes of fellow Californians Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi. Look how Elon Musk quickly gave them the running shits. 

“  Probably the biggest factor in the election will be how Coronavirus is contained or is spread over the next 6 months. Apparently the red states are starting to become hotspots, and they are being opened despite not hitting their peak yet to flat the curve- so it may see many of them vote for Democrats who will use science to make decisions.“

Fact or opinion? 

“  Even if Trump does win the next election the Republican party is finished- or at least the religious Republican party. “ 

Dream on. The only party facing the extinction is the Dems. There are more and more lefties than you wanting to break away. The Ultra far left lefties are fed up with the far left lefties and the far left lefties are pissed off with the “moderate” lefties. 

I have forgotten the name but there is a movement being referred to as “the Tea Party of the left” who want to reform the Dems. They had a type of convention and even AOC didn’t make it. That is how far left they are. 

You should consider reading a bit wider than Pew Forums. 

“ Posted by: sharkbok (11563 posts)

SB

If you look at the legislation promoted by Trump he is somewhere on the left side in the Republican Party and he has been able to retain the support of the party and  getting into the Latino and Black vote as well.   The fact is that the main fault of the Democrats have been  that they got taken over by the extreme leftists on the country and is now in trouble.  They have moved so far to the left that the even the Labour Party would not agree with them since they are too extreme.

Their other problem is that in the party leading members became corrupt and Obama played a major role in leading them astray,   He was corrupt as well - but half of the Democrat seniors were in the game as well.   In the process they have estranged major proportions of the working class people in the USA - and religion has zero to do with what happened.    Fact is in the religious components there are those in both parties is that is not an ultra-important factor at all, 

As to your calculations based on so-called studies it relates to about 30% if the voters,  My  cousin was at Stellenbosch University and he made a classical remark to me once, while being a Professor at UNISA.   At University we were all Communists  - if you are still a Communist at the age of 30 it means you have not matured or grown up.   He was a top scientist - so we know that what he said applied worldwide.  That is the main problem with your argument about the attitudes of students at Universities, once they marry and have children and work or even have their own businesses they change and become more realistic,

I once referred you to how people voted in the USA in 2016,   In no income category above $50 000 per year did the Democrats get the majority of the vote.   That is where the University degreed people are mostly included.  There is no way in the world where your dream will come true.            ,                .    

People might get more conservative as they get older, but they do not get more religious. So there will always be a conservative ideology, but what it is will change. 

A non-religious demographic would not accept Trump playing doctor and scientist. If/when he is caught lying, he would lose credibility - until is just seen as a lying second-hand car salesman. In 10 years he would never have got into power. 

Bernie Sanders main group of supporters were people in their twenties, so as they get older they might vote for Biden instead- who is more central in his ideology. 

They are not going to vote for the religious type of Trump and associates.

Generation X has a significant majority of Democrats to Republicans, and they are not young. 
Research has shown that the switch from over to Democrat from Republican has actually increased in this group. Many are near the average age in the US. 

However, in the Millenium generation, there is a massive difference - in religious views, and it is even more extreme in Generation Z. The ratio of Democrats is much, much higher- and it would not even be a contest in voting terms. 

If Republicans get back into power in the future, it will not be religious leaders. There will just not enough voters that are religious. They will have to reinvent themselves for the non-religious voter that is conservative. However this will be a smarter brand than the Trumpanzees. 

Ceradyne

Allow me to expand on what you wrote about politics in the USA,

Electoral College

What you wrote is 100% correct but as to potential removal of the College I wish refer to what - Judge Ginsburg once said on that issue - "That will never happen"   The problem for the people who want to change it will be to get approval from the individual States and that will never happen.   The same applies to the Senate - each State have 2 Senators irrespective  of size of the population if the States,   Another never happen case,   

The lock down  

The lockdown had nothing to do with the situation,  What could have been is the issue of China - hatred of China is getting widespread in the world - but particularly so in the USA.   The DP are not trusted to act decisively when China gets troublesome.  There is a perception that Biden will let the USA down after his trip with his son to China.  

Another problem is that frustration with the DP in governing of California,  The presence of tens of thousands of homeless people living in the sidewalks in cities like Los Angeles (the by-election was in the most part i n Los Angeles County) and San Francisco upsets the people where it happen.

 A further factor is the increasing number of business and factories are moving out of California - you mentioned TESLA, but the real fact is that thousands of such businesses have left already and more than 150 000 residents per year  have left California to live in other states,  The latter is based on expected growth in population - minus the actual population.

Lastly - California is the lowest rated state in the USA when it came to conditions of life of people.

The biggest factor

Put it in capital letters  -   CHINA

The rest of SB's daft comment I have already dealt with. 

SB

Please get it into your thick skull and that is this is the 21st Century we live in - we are not stuck like you in the Middle Ages when Religion ruled countries through Kings,  Religion does not control anything in the USA and they are like any other interest groups not governing the country, How they vote is largely influenced by their conditions of life and the struggle to survive.

What studies show and what is actually the case are two vastly different things,   Then another thing - they will NOT vote for a dementia fool - but we will  not know whom the Democrat Candidate will be until their Congress,   They know Biden is a fool and must be planning to replace him.   I hope it is Clinton - that will be interesting and funny to see on  TV.  

.          

What this moron sharkmoron just cant fathom, he comes up with the same BS time and again, is what Mike explained (As yours truly explained as well) namely that the majority of young people grow up and see the absurdity of communist ideology. Didn't the hatter see those stats Mike and i showed the dumbass.

Secondly people come to Christ at any age. So not all these atheists remain atheists. Much like forsaking the atheistic marxist doctrine which simply doesn't work.

Beeno

The fact is that SN turned braindead when it comes to something like practical politics.   He is totally mad about religion as well,  In practical terms it has nothing to do with politics - it has to do what people find in their daily lives - whether religious or not.  The working class has largely turned its back on the Democrats, who are more interested in getting illegal migrants into the country and helping them than they are interested in American workers,

They are not the deplorables as crooked Hillary called them or the Rednecks as SB calls them,  The fact is that the workers got sick and tired if the crooked format the Governments have become since the departure of Reagan from the scene and they have developed a hatred if what they call the corrupt Washington Swamp - which Trump took over from them and used  extensively on the election in 2016.   The swamp include both Democrats and Republicans and Senator Burr is a classic example of that.   

There are two things that will destroy the DP in the upcoming election, namely the -

*   increasing evidence of corruption in the totally corrupt Obama administration coming out regularly; and

*    the close ties between the Democrats and the Chinese Communists as it relates to Biden in particular,

Who will be the actual DP candidate - nobody knows at present.  There is an Afrikaans idiom that covers them all:-

"Hulle is soos finkel en koljander - so skelm soos die een is is die ander".  

It just will not work,