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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  SHOCK REPORT: Top Israeli Mathematician Claims COVID-19 Peaks After 40 Days With or Without Economic Lockdowns — FIRE FAUCI AND BIRX!

SHOCK REPORT: Top Israeli Mathematician Claims COVID-19 Peaks After 40 Days With or Without Economic Lockdowns — FIRE FAUCI AND BIRX!

Started by Beeno17 REPLIES344 VIEWS· 15 Apr 2020, 20:19
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BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
15 Apr 2020, 20:19
#1
15 Apr 2020, 20:19#1

Oaks to see the graphs per country go this link:


HERE


Top Israeli mathematician Isaac Ben-Israel claims the deadly COVID-19 virus peaks after around 40 days independent of the society locking down their economy or not.


The Times of Israel reported:

A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”

While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.

It looks like Dr. Ben-Israel is correct.

Here is a look at the graphs of several countries battling the coronavirus

From an initial glance at the spread of coronavirus in these countries it appears Professor Ben-Israel is correct.Italy is the only country that appears to show extended cases of the coronavirus.



MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
15 Apr 2020, 20:40
#2
15 Apr 2020, 20:40#2
This is the first effort I have read to examine the Wuhan virus through the lens of dispassionate stats. Useful. We have so many unexplained phenomena surrounding this virus.
The massive difference in death rates don’t align well with the health systems of the countries....so it’s explained away by deeper herd exposure in high death rate countries.
But the really high death rates have appeared in cold NH countries....Italy, Spain, Belgium. Even within the US the NE has much higher death rates. Could initial viral load be higher in these indoor environments, leading to worse outcomes.
We badly need some more numbers work.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
15 Apr 2020, 23:58
#4
15 Apr 2020, 23:58#4

Oh ffs he’s a scientist looking honestly at empirical data and calling out the observations that don’t fit. China’s data is a pretty piece of fiction. From the Economist:


But there is growing suspicion that China’s official statistics on the covid-19 pandemic cannot be trusted. On March 24th China’s prime minister, Li Keqiang, came close to admitting that the numbers had been miscounted when he warned officials that “there must be no concealing or under-reporting.” Classified reports to Congress from American intelligence agencies have concluded that the numbers of both cases and deaths from the disease in China are much higher than the official government figures would suggest

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
16 Apr 2020, 12:39
#5
16 Apr 2020, 12:39#5

Italians and Spanish live in multigenerational family units more than other European countries do.

Asymptomatic carriers and at risk groups are thus in more frequent contact and in closer proximity.

This also partially explains the higher infection rate of immigrant communities in the US, such as blacks and H ispanics.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Apr 2020, 21:55
#6
16 Apr 2020, 21:55#6

Tend to agree because so far Africa is doing relatively well.

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,209 posts
16 Apr 2020, 22:19
#7
16 Apr 2020, 22:19#7
China have almost certainly under reported the infections and deaths. However, what motive would they now have for saying their is a second wave. It is a complete reversal to what they done in the first instance. (e.g. saying their is now more reported cases not fewer). 

It seems that people returning from other countries are bringing the virus back with them to China- or at least that is what China are claiming, The mathematician has not accounted for international travel - or maybe he has, but the overall premise of his arguement is just wrong. 

I do however think he has misinterpreted the data. . "COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days"
The UK has had Corona now for sometime now, and like many countries it may be at its peak (40 days). It has been in the UK for longer than 40 days, but lets just use 40 days. 40 days is around 6 weeks. 
70 Days is 10 weeks, so the argument is that it would be going down to around zero in the UK soon. (10 weeks - 6 weeks  = 4 weeks)
If this was true it would excellent. Unfortunately I doubt it is. He might need to go back to primary school and relearn math all over again. 
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
17 Apr 2020, 05:06
#8
17 Apr 2020, 05:06#8

Well you seem to believe it’s declined to almost zero in China. Today there were 46 new cases in China, 22 in S Korea, 85 in Malaysia, 2 in Taiwan. That speaks to some kind of peaking.

But more to the point the virus started local transmission for the World ex China on about February23 and the new cases peak so far is April 3. Sound like 40  days?

— END OF THREAD —

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