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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  Stav, Climate Change...

Stav, Climate Change...

Started by DbDraad87 REPLIES2,090 VIEWS· 09 Oct 2020, 22:03
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DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
09 Oct 2020, 22:03
#1
09 Oct 2020, 22:03#1

....are you saying that radical climate fluctuations over thousands of years can be stabilized by curbing CO2 emissions?

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
09 Oct 2020, 22:07
#2
09 Oct 2020, 22:07#2
No, you are saying radical climate fluctuations have happened over thousands of years.

Stav (along with other people that are sensible) is saying that radical changes have happened in the last few hundred years, the last 50 in particular. 

DbDraad

Hall Of Fame

13061 posts

Oct 09, 2020, 22:03

....are you saying that radical climate fluctuations over thousands of years can be stabilized by curbing CO2 emissions?



DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
09 Oct 2020, 22:29
#3
09 Oct 2020, 22:29#3

I'm sa ying  that if we do everything the scientists and politicians tell us to do, radical change will occur anyway. 

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
09 Oct 2020, 22:37
#4
09 Oct 2020, 22:37#4

PS, that doesn't mean that I think  we should burn fossil fuel like hell and pollute the place...it just means the other side has al terior motives too.

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
09 Oct 2020, 22:40
#5
09 Oct 2020, 22:40#5
That is like saying if there is some litter in your local park, to litter more? You have no way of knowing that now is too late to act... 

The assumption is that green energy and products will improve until they are equal to or better than less environmental options. That is the reason for green tax breaks to encourage development in this area. 
So even with a growing population, the environmental footprint of humanity will be less. 
Green goes beyond carbon emissions- it is anything that looks after the environment from plastic to toxic waste. Replacements for plastic makes sense, but for you, that would be restricting your right to buy plastic. 
As technology gets better, it is easier to produce the same stuff with different material. More options for looking after the environment. 
ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
09 Oct 2020, 23:18
#6
09 Oct 2020, 23:18#6

....are you saying that radical climate fluctuations over thousands of years can be stabilized by curbing CO2 emissions?

No it can't.

Climate change that occurs naturally over thousands of years from non anthropogenic sources is likely beyond of the control of mankind. Yes we will eventually end back in an ice age, but what happens to the climate naturally in tens of thousands of years time is of no concern to me or my direct descendant, nor will I or my generation be responsible for it.

However that's not what those advocating reducing CO2 admissions are trying to stabilize. They are trying to stabilize the recent (recent by historical standards) sudden increase in temperatures directly attributed to man made CO2 emissions.

"I'm saying  that if we do everything the scientists and politicians tell us to do, radical change will occur anyway. "

That's pretty much like saying, I won't step out of the way of a speeding car that's out of control and heading straight for me, because I'll die of natural causes anyway.

"PS, that doesn't mean that I think  we should burn fossil fuel like hell and pollute the place...it just means the other side have anterior motives too."

What evidence have you seen the shows proponents of anthropogenic climate change have an ulterior motive?. On the flip side of the coin are you thoroughly satisfied that anthropogenic climate change skeptics have no ulterior motives?

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
09 Oct 2020, 23:42
#7
09 Oct 2020, 23:42#7

Not a ‘sudden increase’.....go back to your lessons.....where I showed you in spite  the manipulation of  Climate ‘scientists’ ....temperatures increased about as much from 1910 to 1940 when there was no meaningful carbon increase....as they increased from 1985 to 2020 which could be related to carbon increases.

In short we have about 0.7 degrees of warming that coincide with meaningful carbon increases. Which doesn’t mean CO2 is the cause as assumed by climate scientists.


No doubt CO2 is a greenhouse gas....but a tiny greenhouse. Most likely some of the effects being ascribed to CO2 also have other, maybe more significant causes....like disastrous forestry management and human incursion in the case of wildfires.


In the meantime other theories like those forwarded by Finnish and Japanese scientists are viciously attacked. It’s a sorry picture of ignorance and bias....a politician like AOC couldn’t produce even basic facts.

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
10 Oct 2020, 01:44
#8
10 Oct 2020, 01:44#8

Not a ‘sudden increase’.....go back to your lessons.....where I showed you in spite  the manipulation of  Climate ‘scientists’ ....temperatures increased about as much from 1910 to 1940 when there was no meaningful carbon increase....as they increased from 1985 to 2020 which could be related to carbon increases.

Why am I suddenly getting a feeling of Déjà vu here.

Sudden in terms of the natural rate of climate change.

Manipulation, nah afraid not, its just a cause of you not understanding the scientific process.

As for the same temperature increase between 1910-1940 and 1985-2020 that's simply not true.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-1860-1880-and-1910-1940.htm

"In short we have about 0.7 degrees of warming that coincide with meaningful carbon increases. Which doesn’t mean CO2 is the cause as assumed by climate scientists."

Not assumed, its a view backed up with vast reams of research conducted by many thousands of scientists over many decades.

"No doubt CO2 is a greenhouse gas....but a tiny greenhouse. Most likely some of the effects being ascribed to CO2 also have other, maybe more significant causes....like disastrous forestry management and human incursion in the case of wildfires."

Definitely Déjà vu . This is probably the dozenth time I've said this to you but I'll say it again, just because something is small or is "tiny" doesn't mean it can't have a significant affect.

"In the meantime other theories like those forwarded by Finnish and Japanese scientists are viciously attacked. It’s a sorry picture of ignorance and bias....a politician like AOC couldn’t produce even basic facts."

Pointing out flaws in scientists research is not an vicious attack, its part of the standard scientific peer review process. 

You're in no position to accuse others of ignorance and bias, you're pretty much the personification of it.

Just because a politician like AOC gets the science wrong doesn't mean the actual science behind climate change is wrong.





.


"Even after the ‘scientists’correcting climate readings to get more warming...this is the result:"

You just repeat the same long debunked arguments over and over. Whats that saying about leading a horse to water?

"...just mean the other side had alterior motives too,"

Evidence?

"Go watch the Michael Moore Movie."

 Its amazing how suddenly people on the right wing now have time for Michael Moore.

Firstly I like Michael Moore as a a film maker, his movie's can be quite funny, but he's long been known for being dishonest in his film making and his movies should not taken too seriously. He selective edits interviews to serve mostly a left wing agenda, or gives misleading impressions about the political views of the people he is interviewing.

His most recent movie isn't even his movie, as he was the producer and not the director. However critics of it point out the director used many of the same dishonest techniques as Moore does, and presented a lot of misleading or out of date information.

Any argument in isolation can seem like a very strong argument. Its only when you subject a argument to scrutiny do you truly know if its a strong argument.

"Yes, Science is the new religion...most people don't understand it, but believe it anyways....and there are lots of climatologists with a rudimentary understanding of physics...lots of BS dressed as science these days."

Science is not a religion, that's just a smear to discredit science that doesn't align with your political view. Religion is faith based, science is based on research, data and empirical evidence that holds up under a rigorous peer review process. 

Its likely true many people who accept man made climate change is occurring don't understand the science behind it, but what makes you think people who don't accept man made climate change is happening have any greater understanding of the science.


"What gave you the idea that I think that?
So what are you saying then? That people on both sides don't understand the science, and you yourself don't understand the science behind the arguments that climate skeptics are proposing, you merely believe in them?
"I just call BS when Science is politicized".
Its your side of the divide that's primarily driven the politicization of climate Science.
As for that movie, their may well be some aspects of it that are correct but on the whole the majority of information presented in it was either misleading or out of date.
Just because people are making money out of climate change doesn't mean climate change is not happening. If there is a problem, than a solution is needed and that will cost money and someone will always stand to profit from that. You can again flip the coin and point to other side where the skeptics of climate change are also doing it for financial gain. Fossil fuel company's stand to lose millions from the push to green energy and will do all within there power to try to discredit climate change, just like the Tobacco companies did when smoking was linked to cancer.

As for carbon credits, look some political solutions may not work, be ill conceived or may actually make the situation worse, but that doesn't undermine the science behind climate change which is at this point is irrefutable.







"So what are you saying then? That people on both sides don't understand the science, and you yourself don't understand the science behind the arguments that climate skeptics are proposing, you merely believe in them?"

I understand science enough to know that some of the models are too complex   to calculate and that most of the politicians are in it for the money and doesn't give a rat's ass for the environment. 

I know enough about tbe science to realize that the solutions offered won't solve any problems, but will only line pockets.  The world can't afford and don't want to do what's really needed, so we'll just have to deal with the fall-out...it's all a big game and we are the puppets...there are worse things than carbon emissions being totally ignored ...like I said before, I'm not a climate skeptic, I call BS on the proposed solutions. 

"I understand science enough to know that some of the models are too complex  to calculate"

Example?

"and that most of the politicians are in it for the money and doesn't give a rat's ass for the environment."

Evidence?

"I know enough about the science to realize that the solutions offered won't solve any problems,
but will only line pockets. "

Which solutions are you referring too?

"
The world can't afford and don't want to do what's really needed, so we'll just have to deal with the fall-out"

It can afford it. The majority of the worlds population do want to do whats really needed, the question is enough of the people in power want to do it. Dealing with the fall-out will be far harder and more expensive than prevention.

"it's all a big game and we are the puppets"

Stopping man climate change is a very real and worthy endeavor. Its the other side of the divide that is most guilty of the manipulation of its supporters for example throwing out red herrings such as "like disastrous forestry management and human incursion in the case of wildfires." to convince their supporters of things like "there are worse things than carbon emissions being totally ignored"

"like I said before, I'm not a climate skeptic, I call BS on the proposed solutions."

Afraid your being led up the garden path or allowing your own politic bias to determine you views on climate change.



It is clear from this diagram going back 2000 years - that temperature is increasing rapidly.
The more people in the world using modern-day production techniques, the faster man's rate of impact on the environment. 
From 1975,  the increase has been about 1°c. From 1800 to 1975, it is only about half this. 
So just focus on the change from 1975, which gives an idea of the speed of global warming - and then consider the speed of the world population growth.At the current rate, it would not take long to get 1°c per year- assuming dirty energy is used- instead of finding cleaner alternatives that are equally cost-effective and productive.  

No one is clear how much °c increase would be catastrophic, with only some models - not a clear scale outlining the effects based on each level of increase. For example, if it increased by 5°c, would this increase the cause the oceans to rise enough to submerge many coastal cities. 
And, this is all assuming that "global warming" is the only way to measure the effects of climate and environmental changes...
Let's not forget about the pesky datapoint, the hole in the Ozone layer... Proof of man's impact on the environment.
Man followed the available science of the time, and this is no longer an immediate threat. 

Your graph has the same problem... .the speed of increase before from 1910 to 1945 is the same as the increase since 1980. But man made carbon in the atmosphere was one eighth of what it is today. So either CO2 was not the cause of initial warming through 1950....or it was but massive later increases had no additional effect....ie it’s impact on temps show diminishing results.

My guess is a bit of both....but we do know two things:

1 Almost all the models have predicted faster warming than occurred.

2 CO2 is a very small part of the greenhouse and all the models rely on elaborate feedback affects to amplify it’s role.


And it’s all driven by money and power. If this is a crisis we have to act fast.....the fastest way to stop CO2 build up is nuclear and substituting coal and oil with natural gas. This can be done very fast. But we are doing the opposite


If you watch Michael Moore’s documentary on renewables you will get an inkling  of the motivation. But in any case substituting  carbon fuels with renewables will take so long the battle will be lost anyway.

But there is money to be made in this foolishness....Tesla and Solar Edge have been great investments for me this year. Nothing more enjoyable than making money off Leftie insanity.

If clean energy is wrong, the consequences are minor.
If dirty energy is wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. (at least for future generations). 
Besides fossil fuels will also run out anyway, so new options may as well be clean- particularly as advancing technology makes this easier to do affordably. 
As technology advances more, so will the options to create energy.Hydrogen could be a great option- with its output water.
However, in the interim, replacing dirty energy with cleaner energy, certainly when its comparative quality and cost - is a safer bet. 
Hydrogen: Instead of storing and then releasing electricity gathered from the mains in the way that a battery does, a fuel cell generates current from a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen. The oxygen comes from the air. The hydrogen, suitably compressed, is stored in a tank on board the vehicle, and is replenished at a filling station, like petrol. 
Unlike a battery, a fuel cell does create exhaust. But that exhaust is simply the reaction product of hydrogen and oxygen, namely water.

Wrong.....the switch to ‘clean’ energy has the potential to massively impact on the economy, which in turn affects lives as the world discovered in the Great Recession.

Hydrogen is used today....I’m invested in Bloom energy which makes hydrogen fuel cells. The problem is how the hydrogen is separated.....right now natural gas is the only economic agent...back to fossil fuels.


......

’The trouble with hydrogen: it’s expensive to harvest, store, and convert it

About 95 percent of global hydrogen production is done through steam methane reforming (SMR), blasting natural gas with high-temperature, high-pressure steam. This is an energy-intensive process that requires fossil fuel inputs and leaves behind a waste stream of carbon dioxide, so it is of limited use for decarbonizing the energy system.

But it is also possible to pry hydrogen directly out of water via electrolysis — that’s the process of zapping water (containing various “electrocatalysts”) with electricity, stimulating a chemical reaction that splits hydrogen and oxygen. If electrolysis is run by zero-carbon renewable electricity, the resulting hydrogen is a zero-carbon fuel. 

That solves the carbon problem, but there are others. The hydrogen in water doesn’t really want to let go of the oxygen (they are “strongly bonded”), so cracking them apart takes quite a bit of energy. The resulting hydrogen has to be stored, either by compressing it as a gas with big pumps or by (weakly) bonding it to something else and storing it as a liquid. That gas or liquid will require a distribution infrastructure. Finally, the hydrogen has to be extracted from storage and converted back to energy, either by burning it or putting it through a fuel cell.

By that time, the amount of energy invested in the process exceeds what can be gotten back out by a wide margin.‘

......

All this stuff needs to be economically viable or at a minimum net energy positive.  The ‘scientists’ still appear to be struggling making something out of nothing.

Nuclear is ultimate energy....the power of the sun brought to earth.....the solution to CO2 and it’s economic. You just can’t build next to major fault zones or volcanoes.


Europe has a long term plan to find like for like replacements to fossil fuel. Right now dirty energy is the cheapest, but progress is being made to find cleaner options which at the same price and effectiveness.  
Tax benefits will help ensure there is enough R&D to drive this forward. 
However, I doubt the EU wants to tank their economy if certain situations are much cheaper with the dirty option. 

In certain situations, solar or wind could work comparably- like on a farm or a house. 
Gas is a good short term alternative to oil and coal, as is a battery.
However, hydrogen is a work in progress that could end dependence on fossil fuels.  
Batteries will also improve and be much better at storing vast amounts of solar power. Batteries themself will also become more friendly to the environment. 
We are just dabbling with these alternative forms of energy.....they are created by oil and their shortcomings are masked by oil. The only thing that is substantial is nuclear.... .the most sophisticated manifestation of man’s ingenuity.
If everybody really believed Climate Change is an existential threat we would be expanding nuclear on an emergency basis, not cutting it back.
But it’s not an existential threat, if a threat at all. The only time mankind has suffered has been when temperatures have dropped. A slightly warmer planet may inconvenience a few, but mankind will flourish.

So the Climate lobby is not really preventing a disaster, they have themselves an instrument of change...and they are using it to punish things they don’t like.....which includes autos, oil, nuclear and capitalism. And they are using it for political gain.


Geothermal works pretty well.

Heating a house during a northern hemisphere winter for the cost of running a light bulb is certainly a better option.

Air source heat pumps are also great, mainly for warmer climates but work in very cold conditions too.

Most of the technologies already exist. 

It's now becoming clear that the earth has previously been through climate changes  that would all but destroy human civilisation. The most recent was about 11k years ago. 

And we're only one cosmic impact away from another such event.

We'll suffer the same fate as all those advanced civilisations that ruled the earth before us. 

Edit: for context - have a look at the destruction of some if the ancient monoliths around the world, then ask yourself what kind of force was required to break huge solid structures, built from the hardest rock, into pieces. Now also remember that at some point the great Pyramid was completely submerged in sea water for a long period.

Another bit of historical fact from the Old Testament. 

Take note Shark.


The plan to phase out fossil fuels over time, reduce emissions and meet the targets of the Paris accord will happen. 

EU is committed to it, as are other countries. Biden is probably going to win the US election and the Republicans have little chance of getting the presidency back. 

The current Republican ideology that science and saving the environment is socialism, is seen as yesterday's news- and will never win a majority again unless it totally reinvents itself with a complete clear out of politicians.
Even Ted Cruz believes the ideology is ageing out. 
He said that Texas may flip Democrat, this election, but if not this one in 4-8 years. He also said if Texas flips, the Republican party in its current guise is over. It attracts very few people under the age of 35. 

World ideology has changed in places like Western Europe, but especially more recently in the US. Younger generations over the last 20 years- are embracing science, and rejecting faith led explanations. They like fact-checking and considering multiple sources for the same information. 

The US will be rejoining this Paris accord and WHO in the very near future. 

Apparently, the UK government has tried to initiate negotiations with the Biden camp, as they don't think Trump is going to win. 

If you took the top 50% most educated people in the world and asked them if the Paris Accord is essential, the majority would agree.
The charts are easy to understand, and it is very clear that the climate is warming. 

A role model to the younger generation, Greta is backing Biden!.
As does Scientific American. 
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientific-american-endorses-joe-biden1/


At the end of the day, the increasing majority believe in climate change and replacing dirty energy with clean energy. The younger people are, the higher the % of people that believe clean energy is the way forward. The future generations will thank these responsible people. 

The Paris Accord targets are in place to give time to make a transition over time, as technology improves. 

Trump was just a 4 year set back to the world. However, fortunately, it looks like he is finished, and Biden will press the undo button with immediate effect. 

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
12 Oct 2020, 02:46
#33
12 Oct 2020, 02:46#33

If you asked the ‘top 50% of .most educated people‘ what the Paris Climate Accord is they  wouldn’t have a clue. Nor do you.

.......

A new peer-reviewed paper by Dr. Bjorn Lomborg published in the Global Policy journal measures the actual impact of all significant climate promises made ahead of the Paris climate summit.

Governments have publicly outlined their post-2020 climate commitments in the build-up to the December’s meeting. These promises are known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” (INDCs). 

Dr. Lomborg’s research reveals:

  • The climate impact of all Paris INDC promises is minuscule: if we measure the impact of every nation fulfilling every promise by 2030, the total temperature reduction will be 0.048°C (0.086°F) by 2100.
  • Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030, and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO? leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100. 
  • .......  

What should countries do instead?

Dr. Lomborg said: “Instead of trying to make fossil fuels so expensive that no one wants them – which will never work – we should make green energy so cheap everybody will shift to it.

The Copenhagen Consensus on Climate project gathered 27 of the world’s top climate economists and three Nobel Laureates, who found that the smartest, long-term climate policy is to invest in green R&D, to push down the price of green energy. 

Subsidizing inefficient renewables is expensive and doesn’t work. The IEA estimates that we get 0.4% of our energy from wind and solar PV right now, and even in optimistic scenarios the fraction will only rise to 2.2% by 2040. Over the next 25 years, we’ll spend about $2.5 trillion in subsidies and reduce global warming temperatures by less than 0.02°C. 

Copenhagen Consensus has consistently argued for a R&D-driven approach. Fortunately, more people are recognizing that this approach is cheaper and much more likely to succeed –including the Global Apollo Program which includes Sir David King, Lord Nicholas Stern, Lord Adair Turner and Lord John Browne.

......


Sorry to pop your balloon.


SH
sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
12 Oct 2020, 03:04
#34
12 Oct 2020, 03:04#34
Is Dr. Lomborg related to Dolph Lungerin (sic)? 

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,208 posts
12 Oct 2020, 03:10
#35
12 Oct 2020, 03:10#35

Environmentalist accused of scientific dishonesty - NCBI

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › pmc › articles › PMC1128871
?? 12,753,026?? 610?? 0A leading international environmentalist, Professor Bjçrn Lomborg, has been found guilty of scientific dishonesty by the Danish government committees that investigate scientific fraud and misconduct.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1128871/



MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
12 Oct 2020, 05:16
#36
12 Oct 2020, 05:16#36

Of course they accuse him....but have they disproven his numbers? Lomberg is a rational, persuasive man. But there’s no place for dissent in Climate Science.


Still it’s hard to deny the facts. The IAEA report Nuclear is only beaten in CO2 mitigation by geothermal. And is streets ahead of solar, windmills and biomass. 


https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/16/11/np-parisagreement.pdf


But the Germans are closing nuclear plants and building gas pipelines from Russia.....CO2 an existential threat? Maybe, but not as risky as displeasing Greanpeace.



   

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
12 Oct 2020, 06:32
#37
12 Oct 2020, 06:32#37

"If you asked the ‘top 50% of .most educated people‘ what the Paris Climate Accord is they  wouldn’t have a clue. Nor do you."

The crux.

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
12 Oct 2020, 08:14
#38
12 Oct 2020, 08:14#38

I saw something incredibly interesting yesterday that relates directly this topic but it deserves it's own thread.

Get ready, it's mind blowing. Though I need to do some fact checking first.

See that, Shark...

See -> copy -> paste.

Versus...

See -> fact check -> copy -> paste.

That extra vital step.

RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
12 Oct 2020, 10:53
#39
12 Oct 2020, 10:53#39

Ah yes . . . that extra vital step . . . like you fact checked the photo of the flying saucer that was actually a hubcap being thrown in the air . . . that was posted by a discredited laughing stock who claims she travels to the stars and back.

LMAO!

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
12 Oct 2020, 11:00
#40
12 Oct 2020, 11:00#40

I see you failed to list that ALL Viskop asked for was a 'Clear Image'

You then also forgot to mention how you and he both dived head-long into the trap .

And indeed, a picture means nothing. 


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