Sweden Will Reach Herd Immunity in 2 Wks – Countries that Locked Down “Just Postponed Deaths” and Ruined Economies!

On Thursday Sweden’s chief epidemiologist announced the Swedish strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.

d immunity among a population, usually achieved through vaccination, is reached when around 60% of citizens are deemed immune. Without a vaccine for the coronavirus, however, scientists are looking at whether exposure to and recovery from Covid-19 leads to long-term immunity.

Last night reporter Johan Norberg made these truly frightening remarks:

Laura Ingraham: We found out that herd immunity will be reached in about 2-3 weeks in Sweden. I mean, then they’re kind of done.

Johan Norberg: That’s why we shouldn’t make too many comparisons to cases and deaths right now. Because almost every other country except Sweden has just postponed deaths. They won’t avoid them because there is still no argument that has been made that suddenly this disease will go away after their lockdowns are over. I mean if they’re waiting for a vaccine that could take over a year if we’re lucky. It could take several years. And no society can be shut down completely and shut down the economy for more than a year without ruining society and the economy entirely. And that will kill many more people than the virus does.

That is a huge development!
It certainly looks like Sweden used the right approach.

Oaks once you have gone the lock down route you cannot then just open up the economy fully without a large spike in deaths. The Swedes agree that you then have to do it in stages.

Trump is therefore in the circumstances correct to be cautioning Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia to not go the whole hog. Trump though is very happy that other states in better positions than Georgia can open up more fully. All this is far too complicated for the Boards chief clown, the hapless sharkvirus, to follow.

Well if we set aside the vaccine, getting herd immunity as quickly as possible would be good. The longer we wait, the greater the chance the vulnerable will inadvertently be infected.

That  would suggest a series of waves going back to work ....people under 40, followed 30 days later by 40 to 50 year old people. Then 50 to 60.

Hopefully by the time we get beyond that, herd immunity would have stopped the virus. And it seems to me delay hurts the cause....if you were close to herd immunity up north by June 15 summer may do the rest.

 Is there any sense other than avoiding hospital congestion to prolonging this and taking the virus into next winter. Yes, if we know there will be a vaccine, but lots of smart people seem to be skeptical that this is coming any time soon.

Well if you don’t know why Sweden has ‘not been effected’.....it’s pretty much follows that you also have no clue whether other countries would have experienced disaster.

The Poms were going to follow a similar course but then the Imperial College produced their rubbish data that ‘99% of all scientists probably agreed’, and the political consequences became to o dire.

Then in spite of the Poms doing a horrible job with the virus, they were way better than the models....but much worse than Sweden in spite of the U.K. lockdown.

So you know why Sweden has not been hit as hard as say Italy, Spain or the UK? Are you suggesting that the lockdown makes the Coronavirus spread more? 

Actually the UK changed course when the body count stacked up and this put pressure on the hospitals coping. No PPE, no ventilators, shortage of beds. The idea is that the lockdown will slow the spread, and help the NHS cope over a longer period. 

There are other possible reasons that I have mentioned on other threads why certain countries may be less affected. (e.g. past vaccines with different ingredients etc). 

However, this is all speculation - no ones knows for sure - otherwise there would be better treatments and cures than toilet cleaner being injected into people and a malaria treatment that slows down the heart rate to give less oxygen...

I’m suggesting the lockdown spreads the length of virus activity and  that may ultimately result in a higher death rate when all the numbers are in. Targeted lockdowns can take pressure of the hospitals.

But there certainly was no consensus on lockdowns back in January when the Washington Post, a liberal rag, reported that scientists and experts warned that the Chinese lockdown might not work

I doubt it. 

The UK has tested both approaches - and the consensus seems to be social distancing will give the virus less chance to spread. 

It can travel for 2 metres from one host to another. The virus can live in a host for 12-20 days. So the more contact with people, the more likely the virus will spread faster to multiple hosts. Going viral seems to be the virus creating new viruses, while the original one dies. So the original virus has a short life. 

If everyone in the world could be isolated and have no contact with anyone for 20 days, it would totally kill the virus. (at least in 99,999% of cases). The Coronavirus will either kill the host and die itself, or the host would recover and become negative again. 

There does appear to be some random anomalies where some people have tested positive for over 60 days - but felt no symptoms - which is very worrying. 

There is also talk that developing antibodies is no guarantee that Corona will not return to a host again- from a different host.

Seriously guys...during this time, please download some RTS games on your phone, laptop or tablet.

Taking an early hit and then proceeding 100% as normal will always trump taking sustained damage over time and running at under 100% for the duration. 

Consider this...

You built a base. Your enemy has scouted your base. The enemy sends two troops to build an assault tower just in range of your base. The tower is able to attack your structures and slowly whittle down their health. There is an added danger that the two troops build more assault towers. Their only limiting factor being the enemy economy and the speed at which the  troops can build the tower.

You have some choices...

1) Station repair units beside the structures being damaged. Repairing costs you money. A terrible idea since your cost to repair will add up to significantly highly amounts than what it cost the enemy to build his towers. The longer it continues on the greater your deficit will be.

2) Sacrafice the structures and build new ones out of range of the assault tower. Here you are also at a loss because the enemy towers may be much cheaper to build than whatever base structures you are sacrificing. And this is before the time to replace base structures has been factored in. A double deficit.

3) Send your troops to destroy the enemy tower the moment you notice it. You may lose a troop or two in the process but normal business may now resume and your loss is likely smaller than the enemy's.

With a little abstract thinking one is quite easily able to compare this type of situation to Covid.

Sweden's approach would be option 3 while the rest of the world have chosen 1, 2 or a combination of the two.

Just some fun

Interesting article on Sweden. It is believed that many people have self-isolated and apply social distance measures despite a government policy of no lockdown. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52395866

Although there is also talk that herd immunity for Corona may even be a myth, as there are people contracting  Coronavirus more than once.

Hopefully, a cure is found soon, as it seems that whatever option a country takes- there is still lots of death and damage to the economy. 

I just listened to an interview with the Swedish foreign minister....common sense seems to be the theme.

1 Anybody with any symptoms should stay at home.

2 Children go to school

3 Bars and restaurants are open but only at tables set apart

4 Controlling the curve is important and being achieved,  but they trust their people to act responsibility.

5 They think their economic slowdown will be 4% to 10% vs 30% in the US and much of Europe.

6 The death rates per million is about middle of the road....better than Italy and Spain, but worse than Germany.

All of this looks pretty good and the Minister and elegant lady makes the point that the death rates won’t be clear until it’s all over. She added that herd immunity is not a specific objective, rather they are dealing with this in a way that suits the Swedish people.

Maybe a little bit of public relations as their Chief epidemiologist made the case for herd immunity a few days ago. It appears the Swedes unlike Florida have failed to protect the Nursing homes which account for 50% of their deaths.

Nonetheless this approach with greater contact has to be building herd immunity ahead of others.

Oaks you must see my post about what two very experienced doctors with a big practice are saying. Excellent clip!

W.H.O.  now says Sweden is a model to get back to normality....so now what do the Globalists who are deriding  the Swedes and supporting the W.H.O. say?

I have to say it bothers me though, the W.H.O. has been wrong on almost every issue,

W.H.O.  now says Sweden is a model to get back to normality....so now what do the Globalists who are deriding  the Swedes and supporting the W.H.O. say?

W.H.O.  now says Sweden is a "future" model to get back to normality. They are not saying the what Sweden is doing is better or worse than other countries. They W.H.O should be more careful with what they say because it can be taken the wrong way but reading what Dr. Ryan said in full, I believe what they where saying is its a model countries could look to emulate after the full lock downs they implement are over.

Truth is we don't currently know which is the better method at the moment. The general medical consensus is that Sweden approach isn't the right one at the moment.

The Swedish strategy may see it suffer higher death rates initially but have less deaths in the long term but their a lot of contradictory views on the matter. The UK opted for a herd strategy approach partially based on on the view that in the affected area's of China at the time had achieved a herd immunity of around 20%. However other medical experts disagreed with the view and upon seeing the projected death toll, the UK changed course.

There is reports of people being re-infected with Corona virus, the scale of which is not really known yet and that may render achieve herd immunity much more difficult. At the same time we don't know if and when we could have a vaccine.

The Swedes could be right, and it could prove to be a very brave decision on their part if that turns out to the base.

Looking at Sweden's numbers though something is off. Compared to own country they have just slightly more cases reported than us 21,092 to 20,612, yet they have just over double the death rate. There is no way the Swedish health care system is so significantly worse than Ireland's as to account for twice the amount of people dying, after all the W.H.O just said the Swedish health care system was able to cope. So I suspect Sweden has far more actual cases than its reporting and that's down to the fact they are not testing at near the rate we are.

‘There is reports’ of people being reinfected. Anger I committed to helping you where spell check fails.....’are’......use ‘are’.

I can also help with the numbers. Case numbers are completely unreliable. Deaths from the virus are much more reliable than cases, and population is a known.

So we can safely compare death rates per million between countries. Ireland is at 250, Sweden at 263. So in spite of not sheltering like Ireland, Sweden has very similar death rates. And at least theoretically, it has built better herd immunity.

It’s also widely reported that Swedish nursing homes have not been properly protected. Florida which followed a strategy similar to Sweden did a much better job with these potentially high risk populations . So no doubt the strategy could have been executed better.

If everyone in the world could be isolated and have no contact with anyone for 20 days

Bwahahahahaahahahahahaha what a red nosed clown ou sharkvirus is.

No the Swedish model is obviously the way to go. The USA must ease into that model which is what Trump is in fact now trying to do.

The Globalist calling for a world government with executive powers (eg Brown and Blair) have lost this round. While Trump is President No tyrannical World Government .

Well progress is being made ou sharkvirus can at least spell globalist but unfortunately he has not got much further!

...the world is watching Sweden with their 20 000 cases of C19 - with over 80% of those still with the capacity to infect others.... does'nt exactly sound like a recipe for success...sounds more like a big gamble....interesting case study though those Scandinavian countries given the contrasting approaches to the pandemic....but the death rate in Sweden is alarming - three to eight times that of other Nordic countries..and how close Sweden is to herd immunity is unknown..

...another good case study South Korea who incidently reported their first cases at the same time as the USA.   Mass testing , contact tracing and containment seems to be the key to S K's success - South Korea 5 deaths per million compared to US 202 deaths per million... the world now turning to South Korea for their testing kits..

South Korea using a combo of phone location data , CCTV footage and electronic financial data to track cases.. Arstralia with their new tracing app also adopting a phone tech approach to limiting the spread of the virus- as are China, India , Singapore and soon UK to follow...methods and levels of privacy intrusion varying widely...but phone tracking not for everyone shades of 1984...

No need to look at different countries with different ways of testing and measuring which make comparisons tricky.....the US States allow an easy comparison with different approaches to the virus, but fairly uniform statistical guidance:

Tests per Million/ deaths per million.

1 NY......52000/1256

2 Massachusetts.....46000/586

3 New Jersey.....31000/888

4 Florida.....21000/67

5 California .....18000/57

6 Texas.....14000/32

So there you have it. The more you test the higher death rate. Also the more you lockdown the higher the death rate. 

The negative correlation between testing and death rates is almost perfect. Do I believe that? Nope it’s reflective of other variables....probably a reverse causation. That is....it’s not tests driving death rates, it’s death rates driving testing.

There is simplistic  thinking all over the place on this topic, driven largely by political considerations. It’s shameful....nothing  is beyond politics.

The truth is no country has any better way of treating this disease. Although some  countries have been protected by isolation and climate, others by lower levels of urban density. 

It's been clear since the start that this was not going to be stopped.

For at least a month now it has been just as clear which groups are more at risk. 

Pity so much resource has been spunked on a blanket lockdown when a fraction of it, focused on the correct groups, would have seen a better result. Herd immunity sooner and death rates lower.

Hopefully that is the plan going forward.

Yes lots of bad stuff happening in NY....a Democratic mayor and governor were ill prepared. 

But I’d point out that South Africa with 2 deaths  per million.....is still outperforming Oz and NZ at 4 deaths per million. That without NZ’s benefit of an island nation and a population smaller than most world class  cities. South Africa with a vast population living in close quarters!

You have done nothing novel....so the crowing is a bit sickening.....hell if it was up to your medical system, you would still think this was the flu!

Yes, the entire population of NZ is slightly more than the population of Cape Town alone.

Swedens infection rate is now higher than in the UK and France. This is despite enforcing lockdowns. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8971141/Sweden-higher-Covid-19-infection-rate-France-Britain-shunning-lockdowns.html

Cases per million pop:

Uk....22227

France...32760

Spain...33985

Italy....23315

Germany....11111

Belgium..47970

Netherlands ...28260

Switzerland...33482

........

Sweden .....20574

Keep fit, get some sun, take vitamins, make an effort to get regular doctor's check-ups and listen to his advise when he says you should stop smoking or drink less, improve your diet and take active steps to decrease stress levels.

People want to know why Africa is doing better than the first world with this virus and having recently visited some rural places, I realised something. Poor people are naturally healthier. They are less stressed, more physically active and have cleaner diets with less excess.

Basically what the UCT head of virology said on the radio this morning.  The way to go according to him...he also said it's not the popular way...

Draad,

Strangely, people giving this type of advice on YT or FB have been getting their videos taken down.

Apparently, the WHO is the only authority and common sense is invalid.

If Sweden is doing so well, how come their numbers have spiralled out of control, how come their hospitals are inundated, how come the Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven has just admitted they "got it wrong" while King Carl Gustaf has recently tweeted "hold on tight"?

I know you Trumpanzees get your "info" from some dodgy sources but could one of you put up a link or two to back up your claims and show that Sweden's herd immunity strategy hasn't been a complete disaster?

These are the latest stats:

Surely even a brainwashed Trumpanzee can see that the herd immunity strategy has failed . . . or else why are the Swede s now suddenly slapping belated restrictions and lockdowns?

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234. 514 on 25 Oct
235. 1,068 on 26 Oct
236. 2,415 on 27 Oct
237. 3,390 on 28 Oct
238. 3,263 on 29 Oct
239. 4,055 on 30 Oct
240. 2,987 on 31 Oct
241. 1,298 on 1 Nov
242. 1,570 on 2 Nov
243. 3,609 on 3 Nov
244. 4,486 on 4 Nov
245. 4,746 on 5 Nov
246. 4,454 on 6 Nov
247. 4,453 on 7 Nov
248. 2,098 on 8 Nov
249. 3,727 on 9 Nov
250. 4,500 on 10 Nov
251. 5,711 on 11 Nov
252. 5,570 on 12 Nov
253. 6,737 on 13 Nov
254. 3,515 on 14 Nov
255. 1,582 on 15 Nov
256. 2,547 on 16 Nov
257. 4,460 on 17 Nov
258. 4,960 on 18 Nov
259. 6,243 on 19 Nov