The Local Government Elections has wide implications for the future. It is necessary to look at some indicators as to voter inclinations and come up with some measurables in dealing with the indications that is important for the future.
The ANC
Despite an increase in the number of registered voters – the actual number of votes gained by the ANC has shown a decline since the last elections in 2011. That year the ANC got 62,9% of all votes casted - this year it was down to 53,91%.
In total the ANC support dropped to –
* below 50% in Gauteng
* below 25% in Western Cape
* 40% in Port Elizabeth (Nelson Mandela Metro)
In other major cities like Durban, East London the support for the ANC – still the majorIty is evident that part of the decline was due to some of the Black voters turning to the EFF of Malema – who got on average about 6% of the vote countrywide. There major impacts were in –
* Gauteng,
* North West Province
* Limpopo Province
In the major cities – Durban, East London, Bloemfontein and Kimberley the ANC support dropped by an average of 12%. That led to the believe by some that the ANC is becoming a rural party – but that may also be a contradiction – there were also a decline in the case of rural voters – the result of the IFP win in Nkandla serves as an example of what could become a trend as well.
The EFF
There are no comparative figures for the EFF since they formed a party after 2011. However, in the case of some Municipalities they are the second choice party – in at least 2 Municipalities they can take over if they form a coalition with the DA.
The EFF has an average of below 8% in support countrywide and most voters seems to recoil from some of their more radical ideas – in the northern areas people are aware of the destruction of the Zimbabwe economy by Mugabe and Malema – originally close to Mugabe – has been supportive of the present opposition to Mugabe.
The EFF did a survey of their voters and there response was that 59% of their supporters favour a coalition with the DA in hung municipalities.
The Democratic Alliance
However, the other part of the problem for the ANC is the Democratic Alliance. Lets look at what happened in two areas with virtually no white inhabitants:-
Mamelodi (Preoria)
In 2011 the DA got 4125 votes in Mamelodi – this year the number increased to 9259. This represents a 124,46% increase
Transkei Municipalities
In 2011 the DA got 23 283 votes in Transkei Municipalities – this year the number increased to 40 290. This represents a 73.04% increase.
Comparative to the total number of votes in the areas those are still small numbers. In Mamelodi it makes up about 8% of the total number of votes cast ed – in some area it is as high as 13,19% of the. In the Transkei it average 11% of the votes casted. However, it indicates a major indicator of what is happening amongst the voters. If the above trend is repeated in 2019 the outcome could be as follows:-
Mamelodi - 20 000 votes – representing circa 16% of all votes to be casted
Transkei - 69 700 votes – representing in excess of 20% of the votes to be casted
Since the above is a general trend noticeable throughout SA - if that happens the ANC is dead in the woods in 2019.
What can the ANC do to recover lost ground
The first thing is to get rid of Zuma and his corrupt cronies. If they do that the moderates in the party can take over and steer away from corruption and cronyism – the voters dislike those two issues with a vengeance. Makhura – the Gauteng premier and Tau up to Tuesday the Johannesburg Mayor are hardworking and honest politicians who can recover lost ground.
Will that happen – very unlikely, because the ANC executive is made up of weaklings and cronies. Another three years of the present scenario and the ANC would be history.