Two pillars of the Biden team are that oil is yesterday’s news and Russia is an implacable enemy. These beliefs have been evident from beginning. But the Ukraine and the subsequent events have exposed the folly of those notions.
Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine would possibly not have happened if Russia felt more respected by the West and the US in particular. All the way back to the Sochi Olympics the negative views of Russia were bound to have repercussions. And with Biden representing the US there was no chance these two leaders could ever communicate.
Putin was clearly emboldened by the Afghanistan debacle and pounced. It was the act of a totally unscrupulous but opportunistic man. He never anticipated the Ukrainian response.
In the meantime Russia, China and Iran have emerged as a new axis. With no meaningful response from the Biden team the Saudis, who have no reason to trust the US, have pulled back from their stance on Iran. The Russia/China/Iran axis has the potential to dominate the Middle East, producing the first non U.S. led Middle East since WW2. And with that, the potential to control oil.
Why worry say the Greens? Because there is little evidence oil isn’t going to remain the world’s most valuable commodity for the next 50 years. Lose free access to the Middle East and the West is in serious trouble.
To make matters worse China is dominant in many of the resources needed for solar power and electric cars. So our policies are literally benefitting our chief rival.
It’s astonishing how quickly Ukraine has redrawn the geo political map. But denying Putin, and by association the axis, a success in the Ukraine is looking crucial. And the US needs to rebuild its alliances in the ME, hard to do with the unnecessary humiliating exit from Afghanistan.