The German machine shop is slowing down….

German industrial output is down 9% since 2015, whereas Europe as  a whole is modestly up. Germany is the best manufacturer of mechanical things….pistons, disc brakes, pumps.

Trouble is everybody else is catching up and the products themselves are entering the buggy whip stage. Twenty years from now will anybody still be building the magnificent internal combustion engine?

Added to that Germany has  done what the Greens are trying to do in America…..messed up their power grid by taking nukes offline. Highest energy costs, high labor costs….products being discontinued. Merkel’s legacy is not a pretty picture.

How wise were the UK citizens to abandon Project Europe and embrace the future.

Hopefully the US will learn from this mess and embrace natural gas and nukes….out CO2 emissions have already been pushed down to 1990 levels largely as a result of fracking and the use of natural gas.

I see that the Brexit agreement looks like it will be abandoned. It then reverts to a no-deal. 

It seems the UK has complied with the soft border between NI & the Republic. 
However, the EU wants to enforce a border between NI and the UK. 

Although, if NI is not going to be in the UK for much longer due to the Catholic majority, why not just wait it out until that happens with border checks between UK and NI

If it goes to a no-deal, does that mean the UK will enforce a hard border with the Republic & NI?
If not, then it should not really impact the Republic. The EU would continue to force a hard border between the UK and NI- so what has been achieved by the no deal?  

Wrong Anger…..you are reading the simplistic stuff meant for trolls. Read this and learn:

In our view, it is essential to judge any underlying trend in UK exports to the EU using the series that strips out oil and erratic items. Exports of these two items have dropped by around 50% since the start of last year, with declining sales of oil accounting for the majority of this. The drop in oil sales cannot be attributed to Brexit as there have been no significant new trade barriers to oil sales. Rather, this looks like a structural supply side decline.

There is also a case for stripping out car exports which in 2021 have been badly hampered by the global chip shortage. Notably, UK and German global car exports have followed similar negative trajectories in recent months (German exports in August were 25% lower than in the same month in 2019). A series for UK exports to the EU excluding oil, erratics and car sales was actually slightly higher in August 2021 than in January 2020.

Properly interpreted then, the data does not really support the idea that 2021 has seen a big drop in UK trade that can be attributed to Brexit, as the OBR claims. Most of the headline decline in exports relates to weaker sales to non-EU markets while the underlying picture for exports to the EU shows broad stability. On the import side, overall UK imports are little changed since early 2021 – largely as you would expect given UK GDP has not yet fully recovered from the coronavirus recession that began in Q2 of 2021.

@shark

I see that the Brexit agreement looks like it will be abandoned. It then reverts to a no-deal. 

If the UK triggers article 16 to suspend parts of the protocol it will have to gone through one month of negotiations with the EU in an effort to find the solution. Its possible Johnson will take whatever the EU offers at the last minute and claim victory and the media in the UK which largely still backs Brexit will back his claims of victory.

If no deal is reached  by the end of the month then the EU will end the TCA with the UK but have to give a years notice before they can, so that will not likely occur until January 2023. However in the meantime they will likely start using targeted trade tariffs against industries and business in Tory backing constituency's mostly like in the Red Wall to exert maximum pressure. 

It seems the UK has complied with the soft border between NI & the Republic. 
However, the EU wants to enforce a border between NI and the UK. 

The UK never fully complied with the Northern Ireland protocol they failed to build the relevant custom infrastructure needed and provide access to UK data showing real time trade flows both of which is what the UK agreed too and by triggering article 16 the UK will be ones endangering the soft border between the NI & the Republic. The EU merely wants the UK to honour the agreements signed and hailed as a brilliant deal by the Johnson government not even a year ago.

Although, if NI is not going to be in the UK for much longer due to the Catholic majority, why not just wait it out until that happens with border checks between UK and NI

We are still at least 10 most likely 20 years from that point.

If it goes to a no-deal, does that mean the UK will enforce a hard border with the Republic & NI?
If not, then it should not really impact the Republic. The EU would continue to force a hard border between the UK and NI- so what has been achieved by the no deal? 

It remains unclear what would happen on the NI border in the event of a no deal, both the UK and Ireland might be compelled to bring back the border there.

The EU doesn't enforce a hard border between the UK and NI. The UK does that on the EU's behalf as part of the NI protocol. In the event of a no-deal, the UK would no longer be compelled to do that, all checks between NI and UK (other than few that occurred before Brexit like veterinary checks) would cease.

Wrong Anger…..you are reading the simplistic stuff meant for trolls. Read this and learn:

Oh look an internet blog run by Brexiteers who think they know better than the Office for Budget Responsibility, the department that has full access to all data pertaining to trade and the economy and who's reports the government plans the yearly budget around. I'll leave that tosh to the Gammon who desperately need reasons why they can ignore what they see with their own eyes. 

Well I’d have more confidence in this:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102546/coronavirus-european-gdp-growth/

GDP growth estimates for 2021

UK  5%

Ireland 4.6%…..a high point before tax cheating is stopped

Europe 4.2%

Germany 3.4%

So what happened to the UK’s Brexit economic disaster you and like minded morons were predicting? And it’s going to get worse as the German car industry implodes.

When intelligence meets dummy spitters... cue the above. Sadly, pop politics is the flavour of the day. You'll be beating your head against a brick wall if you insist on feeding the pigeons. 

Sorry Irelands GDP growth for 2021 is expected to be 15.6%

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0930/1249907-economic-forecasts-upgraded/

So what happened to the UK’s Brexit economic disaster you and like minded morons were predicting? And it’s going to get worse as the German car industry implodes.

Moz when it comes to Brexit you haven't a scooby-doo. The predictions of the "morons" have turned out to be oh so accurate, if you had even the slightest knowledge of what was happening over here, in the UK and Europe you would know Brexit has but nothing short of a farce. 

I’m surprised you aren’t too embarrassed to even mention that number. Even your Irish Minister of Finance said it’s because of  the moves made by multinationals and that the real growth of demand is around 5%.

When a respected forecaster like Statista has the number at 4.6% and it suddenly jumps by 11% one is struck by the amount of money laundering going on in Ireland…a tax haven on fumes. 

But I digress the point is the UK should be cratering now according to your crowd and instead it’s growing well ahead of all but a few European countries. Clearly Brexit has not been an economic issue even if the negotiations are ugly.

All the ‘experts’ were wrong and as the UK economy adjusts things are going to get even better.

I’m surprised you aren’t too embarrassed to even mention that number. Even your Irish Minister of Finance said it’s because of  the moves made by multinationals and that the real growth of demand is around 5%.

When a respected forecaster like Statista has the number at 4.6% and it suddenly jumps by 11% one is struck by the amount of money laundering going on in Ireland…a tax haven on fumes. 

Well you would know about embarrassment wouldn't you! Yes the multinationals do greatly inflate Irelands GDP figures but GDP figures do have to incorporate them so the number is correct. Are you going to subtract the multinationals from the other countries you listed as well to reflect their real growth as well to be fair?

And I'd like the way you didn't acknowledge the real growth of 5.2% as better than the the other countries you listed. And if we can grow as well if not better than the UK while being inside the EU then it proves being in the EU is not necessarily a detriment to growing a countries economy. 

You also have to bear in mind that Ireland was always going to be the country that suffered the second most economically from Brexit it as well. Our growth would have been even better if not for that.

Now when it comes to GDP growth from the UK. No one who was against Brexit ever predicted that the UK economy would not grow because of Brexit, only that its economy would take a significant hit like the 4% hit the OBR reported.  I also suspect all advanced economy's are finding it easier to post relatively high growth numbers on the foot of re-opening from the pandemic. The UK had its economy tank more than pretty much any other advance country in the world during the pandemic and has simply lower easier starting point to to recover than the most other countries.

Call Ireland a tax haven if you want, but it would not be happening without corporate America's involvement and the UK is no better off, with the Conservatives currently off marred in an avalanche of corruption claims at the moment with one former minister evening having a 2nd job in the British Virgin islands advising people on how to avoid paying tax while serving as a sitting MP and London being described as "the most notorious safe haven for looted funds in the world today" by Nigeria's anti corruption czar in the last day. Its well known that London and the British overseas territories are awash with dirty money.

But I digress the point is the UK should be cratering now according to your crowd and instead it’s growing well ahead of all but a few European countries. Clearly Brexit has not been an economic issue even if the negotiations are ugly.

All the ‘experts’ were wrong and as the UK economy adjusts things are going to get even better.

Now lets look at some of the consequences of Brexit.

The UK is estimated to suffer a GDP drop of 4%, twice that of Covid.

Trade with the EU has dropped by 40%

China has replaced Germany as the UK's no.1 trading partner.

Its contributed to the shortage of at least 20,000 of the 100,000 HVG drivers which has resulted in a crippled logistics supply chain which in turn has lead to the shortage of some foods in supermarkets, fuel shortages, chicken shortages, medical tube shortages, CO2 shortages. None of which are affecting EU countries.

There is a lack of trained abattoirs meaning thousands of healthy animals have had to be destroyed for no reason. A lack of trained butchers also  means the UK has to send animal carcasses to the EU for processing. Ireland and the Netherlands will end up processing millions of pig carcasses and then sending the food back to the UK. Lack of food and fruit pickers resulting in thousands of tons of food been left to rot. Likewise with fish being left to rot on the peers because not enough of it can be sold into the EU anymore. 

Speaking of fishing the UK shellfish industry was completely wiped out being entirety unable to sell into the EU, while fishing quota's have actually got smaller as they can no longer trade quotas with other EU nations. 

Meanwhile a shortage of chemicals imported from the EU used to treat sewage has resulted in the pumping of raw sewage into UK harbours and rivers, something that could not have occurred when they where an EU member as the UK was able to pass legislation to permit this to happen as they can lower their environmental standards below that of the EU. Another accurate prediction.

Shall we mention the thousands of extra pages of paperwork needed to be filled out resulting in thousands of pounds cost and delays when a UK SME wants to trade into the EU as a result of Britain being a third country.

What about the delays at the ports. The EU has yet to even implement all its checks on UK goods coming into the EU yet. The UK in order to avoid a complete shut down of its ports is not checking any EU deliveries coming into the UK. Smuggling is no doubt rife. But yeah lets take back control of out borders!. The funny thing is the if a trade war ever broke out between the UK and EU and the EU slapped tariffs on the UK, the UK can't do the same because they are not checking anything at the moment and if they do their ports would clog up resulting in delays probably amounting to several days for any 

The returning of roaming charges for UK citizens while in the EU the requirement for an ESTA form to visit the EU.

Marks and Spencers a British supermarket pulling out of France because it can no longer supply it effectively because of Brexit.

The huge drop in trade at Holyhead port the UK second biggest port as Ireland is now bypassing the UK land bridge for trade and has massively expanded ferry services directly to mainland Europe to avoid the red tape and delays.

UK musicians and artists finding it much more difficult to tour the EU.

Direct investment in scientific projects and research has fallen.

Violence in Northern Ireland with rioting and buses being burned. Political instability with the DUP threatening to bring down the assembly and one loyalist paramilitary groups saying its no longer going to abide by the GFA peace agreement because of the Northern Ireland protocol.

The list is endless and new problems keep popping up every week. And pretty much all of them where predicted in advance.

Oh look! Appeals to authority, character and tradition, all in one sentence.

Fuck me, this must be a record.

Oh look! the side without any supporting evidence derides expertise. Colour me surprised.

Anything I said above I can happily provide links too that have supporting evidence.

‘ Now lets look at some of the consequences of Brexit.

The UK is estimated to suffer a GDP drop of 4%, twice that of Covid’

……..

When, estimated by whom? So far the U.K. is in the top quartile of GDP growth in Europe. 

What’s wrong with Ireland? Well it’s you figure it out….it’s keeping Company with a bunch of dubious countries and supporting taxes being kept out of government coffers.

Now that doesn’t bother me so much, I believe in capitalism.

But how a socialist like you can live  in, and try to defend a country which adds 10% to GDP by tax dodging and denying your fellow socialists their funds beats me. It seems like massive hypocrisy.

When, estimated by whom? So far the U.K. is in the top quartile of GDP growth in Europe. 

The Office for Budget Responsibility

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59070020

GDP growth for most countries is misleading because many are coming out of the pandemic which is why growth numbers looks really good for many countries, buts its unlikely that the growth levels will be sustained at such high levels for any great length of time. You also have to look at where the countries where coming from in terms of how badly the pandemic hit the economy. The UK was the worst hit economically of the G7. Even with strong economic growth many countries economies have yet to get the economies back to size it was at pre-pandemic.

As I said no economist ever predicted the UK could not grow their economy following Brexit but that whatever it would grow by would be less than what the growth would of been had the remained a member of the EU. And they where absolutely right. The UK is a poorer country for leaving the EU.

I've listed a whole host of issues that Brexit has caused and all have been reported on and many where predicted before hand. Care to comment on any of these or list what benefits Britain is supposed to have got from Brexit in return? Please don't say those glorious trade deals with Australia and NZ estimated to be worth adding less than .50P to each UK citizen.

What’s wrong with Ireland? Well it’s you figure it out….it’s keeping Company with a bunch of dubious countries and supporting taxes being kept out of government coffers.

Now that doesn’t bother me so much, I believe in capitalism.

But how a socialist like you can live  in, and try to defend a country which adds 10% to GDP by tax dodging and denying your fellow socialists their funds beats me. It seems like massive hypocrisy.

Nice attempt at a distraction, but can we get back to the point of you knowing absolutely jack shit about Brexit or its effects.

Oh yes that’s the the very argument debunked in the 4th posting on this thread. I won’t bother to post it again….look  at it up there.

And it makes no sense. Is it 4% a year lower, 4% eventually….if so when is eventually, are there any signs of it yet. That guy should be fired.

The U.K. will be a free, dynamic country without the European bureaucrats and Ireland will continue to be a tax dealing largely irrelevant cheater. Will you continue to support this version of Ireland….the equivalent to states in the US legalizing drugs and gambling to improve their financials.

Shameful stuff from a holier than thou nation.

The article you posted is a Brexiteer blog that is attempting damage limitation. They have to put a spin on it because they can't admit to being wrong.

Its the OBR report that the UK government bases its budget off not a random internet site. Because as bad as the Tory party is their not insane enough to base their budgets off cherry picked pie in the sky data like you do.

The report stated long term, so I'm assuming 10 years or more. Regardless of time duration, it will amount to 100 of billions of pounds in lost trade and that will translate to thousands of jobs losses. All of it needlessly. As for firing the guy, its not like a single guy made the report. 

But hey if you don't like the OBR maybe you will like what these guys have to think on the effects of decreased trade between the UK and EU on GDP since Brexit.

• Brexit: forecast impact of EU-UK trade agreement on GDP by 2022 | Statista

The UK has lost influence, power, rights and wealth by leaving the EU. Ireland thankfully will remain part of the worlds most successful trading. 

‘ According to the winter economic forecast published by the European Commission, the impact of the trade agreement on the United Kingdom's gross domestic output (GDP) is predicted to lead to a loss of about 2.25 percent by the end of 2022.’

…

‘ According to the winter economic forecast published by the 

European Commission, the impact of the trade agreement on the United Kingdom's gross domestic output (GDP) is predicted to lead to a loss of about 2.25 percent by the end of 2022.’

…

That unbiased source the European Commission.

LOL…..I’LL LEAVE IT AT THAT!

They have more experience in European trade? They have run real European companies? Or they are a bunch of economists making paper projections with institutional bias.

The EU commission is just a bunch of economists making paper projections?...are you seriously suggesting that? 

Like the dodge on your double standards towards Statista.

As the new Britain emerges with strong trade links to Asia and the USA, the natural preference for London over the boring European capitals will assert itself. Economists don’t get the real motivations which move companies.

Okay Tonto, let me explain this in very simple terms. From a UK perspective, EU close, USA and Asia far away. Trade with closer countries is always going to far larger, because its quicker and transport costs are way less, not to mention much more environmentally friendly. If you haven't coped on to this very simple fact of trade and the concept of trade gravity by now I don't think you ever will.

Not to mention the difficult the UK will have striking a trade deal with the US if the continue their antics over the NI protocol.

So far things have been fine and they will only get better from here.

Er Anger….have you heard of the Theory of Comparative Advantage? It’s very likely your natural trading partners are not your neighbors.

 Sure there will be a significant exchange of local products, but your neighbors typically won’t fill in strategic import needs…..like oil, technology, raw materials. 

Neighbors have the same strengths as you do and likely a very similar mix of products. In many cases you can substitute domestic products already being produced for imported products from neighboring countries.

It’s likely trade with Europe will be reduced, but with minimal consequences on a net basis.

I’m surprised you missed the whole comparative advantage  argument, the Lefties you worship always trotted it out to diss Trump’s tariffs. Not getting the point that counties out of trade balance have an obligation to address structural imbalances.

But I did so enjoy your environmentally friendly point….cling to that as you plan to buy your computer chips from Greece rather than China…  hahaha.

A little Google is a dangerous thing. Always wrong never uncertain Anger…LOL!

The UK has lost its biggest trading partner alliance, but even a -5% GDP reduction is not massive given something like 50% of the UK's exports are to the EU. 

It just depends on what deals can be made to make up the real GDP decline of something like 3%. 

So far the trade losses are 178 times greater than the trade gains. All the trade deals so far signed or agreed in principal by the UK since Brexit are worth less than 50p per year per person living in the UK.

Er Anger….have you heard of the Theory of Comparative Advantage? It’s very likely your natural trading partners are not your neighbors.

Er Moz...have you heard of fact checking?, In the UK case it is indeed very very likely that your natural trading partners are your neighbours.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_United_Kingdom

But let me guess the Office of National Statics doesn't know what its talking about either.

It’s likely trade with Europe will be reduced, but with minimal consequences on a net basis.

It will amount to Billions in lost trade and thousands of lost jobs, completely needlessly.

A little Google is a dangerous thing. 

It is indeed. If you actually knew how to use it and spent just a couple of minutes doing research you could have spared us the clap trap that was your previous post.

I don’t have to Anger I have a PhD in economics. It’s all pretty clear to me without google. But I do own a nice bit of the stock, so keep googling. And do look up Competitive Advantage, your lack of understanding of this basic building block makes it hard for you to even debate.

I don’t have to Anger I have a PhD in economics. It’s all pretty clear to me without google. But I do own a nice bit of the stock, so keep googling. And do look up Competitive Advantage, your lack of understanding of this basic building block makes it hard for you to even debate

LOL now who's appealing to authority. Wonder will Plum call you on it? 

But oh yes you most definitely do need to do some research. The EU is the UK's undisputed largest trading partner, its common knowledge that the UK itself does not itself dispute. I linked to the trade number in % terms. So you suggesting competitive advantage means your nearest neighbours are not your natural trade partners clearly does not apply to the UK. 

As for debating, I just loved the way you ignored my post with the list of issues Brexit has caused. B

You simply haven't a breeze about European affairs. Stick to golf Moz.

Most of EU trade is the same as before Brexit. As I mentioned earlier on this thread, the impact of Brexit is forecast as 3% reduction in GDP. What was Covid- like 10%?
If the EU makes up 50% of UK trade, that suggests it has reduces EU trade by 6%. 

The only major difference appears to be that VAT needs to be charged between the UK and EU. 
Although surely there should be VAT between countries to avoid more tax fraud by the global corporations. Tariffs are similar to vat. 

This at the very least suggests that Brexit is not impacting trade between the UK and EU that much. 

Most of EU trade is the same as before Brexit. As I mentioned earlier on this thread, the impact of Brexit is forecast as 3% reduction in GDP. What was Covid- like 10%?
If the EU makes up 50% of UK trade, that suggests it has reduces EU trade by 6%. 

Who made that forecast?

This at the very least suggests that Brexit is not impacting trade between the UK and EU that much. 

A recently conducted survey of British Business has shown that half of UK businesses have either har to reduce or stop trading altogether with the EU.

Half of UK exporters have decreased or stopped trade with EU post-Brexit (cityam.com)

Has anybody ever changed a socialist’s mind?

Once you hop on the moral high horse your arse is superglued to the saddle for life.

You got anything useful to contribute to this topic?

Actually no Anger the UKs largest trading partner is the world other than the EU. And their largest individual trading partner is the USA, over twice the size of Germany the next biggest.

And the UK imports 341 billion sterling from the EU….while exporting 274 billion. Will Europe cut it’s nose off to spite it’s face. Normally I’d say no but those Brussels bureaucrats are just dumb enough to do that.

The USA, China and the Commonwealth (which is a larger export market than any EU country) will stand to benefit. And so will the UK once all the short term adjustments are done,

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid' - BBC News

Actually no Anger the UKs largest trading partner is the world other than the EU. And their largest individual trading partner is the USA, over twice the size of Germany the next biggest.

Oh okay so when it comes to the UK the entire rest of the world can be seen as one country or one single trading block is it? LMAO...I know you can't bare to admit to being wrong but do you actually believe the words you are typing here. 

Care to explain how the US with a larger economy than the EU has almost 7 times less trade with the UK then the EU does?. Does the EU have a competitive advantage?  Hell the US has only 3.5 times the amount of trade that Ireland has with the UK despite the economy being 47-48 times bigger. 

And the UK imports 341 billion sterling from the EU….while exporting 274 billion. Will Europe cut it’s nose off to spite it’s face. Normally I’d say no but those Brussels bureaucrats are just dumb enough to do that.

The same old argument of they need us more than we need them. You do realise the EU is a far larger economy than the UK right and that the EU represents almost half of UK trade while the UK represents something like 12% of the total of EU trade. Absolutely Brexit is a hit to the EU economy but a far greater hit to the UK economy.

As for Brussels bureaucrats, another meaningless Brexit catchphrase. The trade barriers that the UK is now facing because of Brexit are not new barriers that EU came up specifically for the UK after Brexit but existing barriers all third countries without a trade deal with the EU have to go through. This is exactly what the UK voted for, so they can't complain about it. If the EU allowed the UK to keep the benefits of being a member state without actually being a member, the EU would collapse within five years as it would render being a member pointless. 

The USA, China and the Commonwealth (which is a larger export market than any EU country) will stand to benefit. And so will the UK once all the short term adjustments are done,

Even trade deals with the above will not balance out the loss of trade with the EU .

Oh look! Appeals to authority, character and tradition, all in one sentence.

Fuck me, this must be a record.

Then 23 posts later.

It’s just great watching you attempt to argue with a literal expert in the field.

Please tell me your being ironic...please.

One is dying to know what your expectations are here?

I have no expectations. I know no one here is going their change their views regardless of what evidence is presented. But I do find find the psychology of some posters fascinating in a way, their confidence stemming from ignorance, their incredibly selective vision and contortions they go through to maintain their pre-set views. Like watching someone argue black is white and genuinely believing it when they do.

Now, Star

Next we should work on your other debating failure.

The tactic that usual goes something like…

Just because X is true doesn’t mean Y must also be true.

At best, this type of reasoning will only offer you fleeting reprieve. Can be used briefly in order to regather but certainly not in the definitive terms that you’re often caught making use of it.

It should go without saying that mounting an offence with the above ad your base is, excuse the biblical reference, like building your house on sand.

See how helpful I am?

Further confirmation you have nothing useful contribute. Thanks but we already had enough confirmation.

My debating tactics is X is true because here is a mountain of evidence of why X its true.

Moz debating tactic is ignore that evidence or selectively view data to support his arguments. 

You're not even debating on this thread, just popping in for the occasional character snipe and piggy backing off Moz. Your probably smart enough to know you know very little about the topics so are staying out of it which is fair enough, but going by previous posts I'm sure you would have moved the goal posts a number of times already had you decided to try your hand.

An argument, not really a debate that like so many threads (in fact on this forum a winner is non-existent but just letting off steam) has no winners, and yes I've never seen a convincing winner on this thread. No matter what topic. A little knowledge on both sides granted but not enough to be convincing,,,

A liberal against a conservative = no winner. It's the same old argument...I do favour Moz's point of view, simply because I'm conservative but not quite. A little knowledge is sometimes more confusing or dangerous than no knowledge at all.