The economists who make these projections have mostly never run companies….they don’t give enough credit to the capacity to adjust.
Whether or not economists have run companies or not has no bearing or whether their predictions are accurate. And the EU commission are not economists they are they people who run the worlds most successful trading block. As for saying they don't credit the capacity to adjust, you honestly have no idea if that's true or not, you just want a reason to be able to dismiss them.
You don’t at the stroke of a pen remove the productive capacity and services which produced that GDP.
No one said it would remove productive capacity and services entirely, but that it would significantly inhibit them.
For many products a temporary price reduction you can recover later when things have settled will buy all the new customers you need. For other products demand will simply shift to domestic sources.
And you know say something like the UK car industry can sustain a price reduction in addition to absorbing the extra cost of selling into the EU after Brexit? If it wants to sell those cars domestically instead is their actually enough demand in the UK to sell them and if its as easy to get more market share by lowering prices why has the UK car industry not already done this regardless of its membership status of the EU.
Or take the UK fishing industry. The majority of the fish it catches is sold to the EU. The majority of the fish consumed in the UK comes from the EU and other countries. The UK public doesn't eat the same fish as its fishing fleet catches. The UK fleet because of Brexit can't sell as much fish into the EU anymore and their is no additional demand for its fish in the UK. Hence there has been occasions where caught fish have be left to rot on peers in the UK or UK fishing boats have simply been told to catch less fish.
But there are far more jobs at stake in the EU than in Britain and while they are proportionately less there will still be enormous pressure to protect. If you don’t count inter European trade the U.K. is 18% of the EU’s exports. Big enough to worry about.
So the EU has to worry about 18% of it trade but the UK doesn't have to worry about 48.1% of its trade right?
Before Brexit the talk from Brexiteers was, the German car manufacturing industry which sells huge volumes of car to the UK would be knocking down Angela Merkels door telling her (and by extension the EU) to strike a trade deal with the UK to preserve German jobs. But this never happened as European industry placed more value on the integrity of the single market than on trade with the UK and they where right to do so as its worth far more to them. You need to understand this, if the UK was able to keep the benefits of EU membership while not being a member the EU, the EU would collapse in a short time, why would any country bother to remain a member when they can get the benefits without having to pay membership fees or abide by its rules.
All this stuff is already in the forward projections of companies which are working to mitigate any issues.
The one thing companies want to enable forward planing is stability and Brexit is the polar opposite of stability. The current trading arrangement may change because of the dispute over the NI protocol and wreck even the best laid plans.
All that is downside mitigation. The upside of a vibrant, independent U.K. able to call it’s own shots. with Europe’s most international capital, transacting business in the English language….will ultimately be compelling.
The EU's far larger market will be more compelling.
So far ….so good. As we started this little discussion, the U.K. is outgrowing Europe in 2021 and that also wasn’t supposed to happen.
A little event like a global pandemic may have something to do with that. Last year the UK economy contracted by 9.9% compared to the EU's decline of 6.8%. The UK's better growth this year is likely to do with the fact that its got more ground to recover.