US Midterm Elections - Opinion Polls

The fact is  that I have been interested to see how through the years how accurate the  opinion polls in fact are.    I did follow the polls closely in the 1980 presidential selection when Carter led Reagan by at least 8% in opinion polls.   I remember watching the results the evening after the election and was totally surprised by the fact that Reagen won so overwhelmingly.   

Subsequently I started to have serious doubts about the real usage of opinion polls in the USA,   Fact is that the opinion polls in 2016 indicate an easy win by the Democratic Party and Clinton in the election - yet the results  indicate otherwise.

What is surprising is that polls can be surprisingly accurate if used correctly.   In the 2016 local government elections the final opinion polls indicate that the ANC would get 54% of the votes countrywide and the real vote count was 53,9% - a variation of 0,1%.

So why are opinion polls in the USA not really reflective of many outcomes in actual voting?   I think the reason is that pollsters have their own agenda in trying to portray certain candidates they support and not a real evaluation of voter problems and intentions.   The objective is likely that through opinion polls they want to cause despondency by Republican Party supporters and thus discourage them for bothering to vote.

The Senate

However, back to the election tomorrow.   There is much bravado about the Democratic Party winning a majority in the Senate tomorrow.   However, the polls of particularly the New York Times are giving the DP the lead in some states won by large majorities by Trump in 2016.

Fact is to get the majority in the Senate - the DP will have to win all of the following Senate seats:-

*    Arizona

*    Florida             #

*    Indiana            # 

*    Missouri           #

*    Montana          #

*    Nevada            

*    Ohio                #

*    West Virginia    #

In 2016 Trump carried all the states marked "#"  - some by large majorities.

By Wednesday morning we would know whether the polls were a correct reflections as to what voters actually voted for.

The House

It is obviously much more difficult to deal the opinion polls situation iro of the House - but I was surprised by what has been stated  in some polls.   In one in particular a opinion poll published was really funny:-

*    Opinion by the New York Times      -     DP candidate to win by 4 points

*    Opinion of another pollster            -      RP candidate to win by 10 points

What is going on here???????

Regardless of the polls I don't get why the Republicans stand to lose the House, unemployment is down, the economy is doing well and so also the stock market. The Republicans should romp home. What's the problem?

Denny

I agree with you - but the problem is that many people world-wide believes what the  media comes up with  and then believe that they are right .  

Mike these pollsters are often left wing radicals trying to make Republican voters give up on voting.

What to me is interesting is that so many races are supposed to be so close. So if they are still crooking the books the GOP should keep the House and senate. Given that the side winning the Presidency loses the House other than 3 times in a hundred years and that the toss up seats are very largely GOP House seats one would think the demorats will take th House. BUT to me this wont happen. My prediction against the polls and history is that the GOP will keep the House.