What impact the Brexit issue may have on the EU Parliament election next week?

Lets first go back to the Brexit Referendum.   The situation was basically that the turnout was very high and the results were as follows:-

*    Leave the EU      =    17 410 742

*    Remain              =    16 141 241

*    Leave majority    =     1 269 501

                                     =======

*    Turnout              =    72,21%

Taking into account the turnout in normal elections in the UK - the turnout was very high,    The fact is that the outcome was as follows:-

*   Scotland - the ream\in average represent circa 62%

*   Northern Ireland - the remain average was circa 56%

*   London, Liverpool, Manchester -  the remain average was circa 64%

In both Wales and the rest of England the leave option had very strong support - Wales circa 52% and the rest iof England on average 56%.

The fact is that the feeling about the way the May Government has handled the issue of Brexit is very strong against the Conservative Party and it was a major reason for the major defeat of the Tories in the municipal election last week..   But it was not only the CP who suffered losses in the municipal elections - the Labourites also suffered from lack of support.  

So what will be the impact on the EU election next week?    Lets first look at what happened in the previous election.  In that election UKIP was the highest ranked team as to outcome in England  and was consequently allocated 23 seats in England and 1 in Wales,   UKIP was and is widely regarded as r\ight wing extremists and Farage decided to get rid of the image by -

*    leaving the UKIP party; and

*    starting a new party to accommodate worker friendly social policies as well.

So what is the situation at present in the UK?   The allocation of the 72  seats at present are as follows:-

UKIP                        -    26,6%   of the Vote           -   24 seats

Labour                     -    24,4%   of the Vote            -   20 seats

Conservative Party    -    23,1%   of the Vote            -   19 seats

Greens                     -      6,9%   of the vote            -    3 seats

Liberal Democrats     -      6,1%   of the vote            -    1 aeat

Scottish nationalis     -      2,4%   of the vote           -     2 seats

Other regional Parties -                                          -     4 seats

Since 2014 the situation chsnged politically in a major way   The Brexit Pasrty was formed and took with them 14 of the UKIP members.  THe British National Party - who got 1,1$ of the vote in 2014  is now part of the remaining UKIP and both the Conservative and Labour Parties are in chaos.   The latest opinion polls suggested that the situation in England at present is as follows:-

Brexit                      -    34%

Lib-Dems               -     15%

Greens                    -     11%

Labour                    -     10%              

Conseratives           -       9%

UKIP                      -       7%

Reional Parties        -      14%

A realistic forecast of the 72 seat distribution is as follows:

Brexit                     -       32 seats

Lib-Dems                -       13 seats

Greens                     -       10 seats

Labour                    -         7 seats

Conservatives         -         4 seats

UKIP                      -          2 seat

Others                    -          4 seats

However, elections are done on a regional basis and each party submit a list of candidates per region.   If the support is limited to certain geographical areas and not countrywide the number of seats can be increased or decrease - depending of the circumstances, 

The above would men that circa 34 of the 72 UK members would come from the anti EU parties.    Insofar as the Brexit Party is concerned the Party would got 22% support the week the Party started.   From there it went up to 27% after 3 weeks - then to 30%  last week and it now stands at 34%.   Following that trend it may reach the 40%  mark when the election takes place on Thursday next week.   If that happens it would cause the biggest political turmoil ever seen in the UK.  

It could mean that the Conservative and Laboiur Parties declined to side show status,  with the Lib-Dems and Greens takin over a major proportion of the votes, while Brexit becomes the real deal in the UK.    In the meantime the Conservative Party may deide to leave May as Prime Minister till after the EU election - but after that she will not last another 14 days,          

Looks like May is definitely on the way out if the following two reports from timeslive is anything to go by:-

REPORT 1

UK PM May's party slumps to fifth place as pressure mounts for her to go

British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservatives have slumped to fifth place in an opinion poll ahead of the May 23 European parliamentary election as pressure grows for her to set a date for her departure.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party was in the lead, up four percentage points, on 34% while May's Conservative Party had just 10%, the YouGov poll for the Times newspaper showed. The opposition Labour Party was down five points on 16%.

Two parties which support staying in the EU, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, were on 15% and 11% respectively.

The collapse in support for the Conservative Party is piling pressure on May to set a date for her departure. Senior Conservatives want May to set out her departure plans this week.

Nearly three years since the United Kingdom voted 52% to 48% to leave the European Union, there is still no agreement among British politicians about when, how or even if the divorce should take place.

"There is a massive appetite for the Brexit Party right now because people want to live in a democratic country,” Farage said. "We have been betrayed, not just by the Conservatives, Labour have done the same thing too."

Britain was due to have left the European Union on March 29, though May has been unable to get her divorce deal approved by parliament so she has turned to the Labour Party, led by socialist Jeremy Corbyn, in a bid to court his support.

Asked if talks with Labour could lead to a possible Brexit consensus, Communities Secretary James Brokenshire said: "I think these talks are very serious, yes, we wouldn't have committed all of the time and effort on sides in relation to this.

"They have been constructive. I very much want to see them concluding positively because ultimately we need to carry a vote in parliament to see that we leave," he told BBC radio.

The new deadline for leaving the EU is Oct. 31 though many Brexit supporters fear that the whole divorce could be derailed.

"We are at real risk of sleepwalking into remaining in the EU," Brexit Secretary Steven Barclay wrote in the Sun newspaper.

"That is why I believe that it would be inexcusable for the Government to not use the coming months to continue to prepare for the real risk we leave the EU without a deal."

He later wrote in Twitter that in a choice between a no deal exit or staying in the EU, he would vote to leave without agreement.”

 REPORT 2

Theresa May under growing pressure to ditch Brexit talks with opposition

“British prime minister Theresa May was under pressure from her own party on Tuesday to abandon a bid to find a Brexit compromise with the opposition Labour Party.

Nearly three years since the United Kingdom voted 52% to 48% to leave the European Union there is still no agreement among British politicians about when, how or even if the divorce should take place.

The UK was due to have left the European Union on March 29. However May has been unable to get her divorce deal approved by parliament so she has turned to the Labour Party, led by socialist Jeremy Corbyn, in a bid to court his support.

Thirteen of May’s former cabinet colleagues as well as Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Conservative lawmakers, wrote to May to ask her not to agree Labour's demand for a post-Brexit customs union with the EU.

"You would have lost the loyal middle of the Conservative Party, split our party and with likely nothing to show for it," the letter said, according to The Times of London. "No leader can bind his or her successor so the deal would likely be at best temporary, at worst illusory," it said.

May's chief Brexit negotiator, Olly Robbins, is due in Brussels to discuss changes to the political declaration on the UK's future relationship with the EU. Robbins will explore how quickly changes could be made to the political declaration if the government and Labour can come to an agreement, the BBC said.”

This lady tried to sneak in a Brexit deal making effective Brexit impossible and now they are after her blood,    Who will succeed he as leader of the Conservative Party?   If they want to survive as a political party they will need a strong leader as a priority.    

Duplication