Ramaphosa falls victim to Covid-1
William Saunderson-Meyer says the President's weaknesses have been mercilessly exposed by the epidemic
JAUNDICED EYE
Covid may be set to claim its biggest victim
Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro contracted Covid-19 last week.
He joins a select albeit unfortunate international club: the
prime ministers of Britain, Russia and Guinea-Bissau; the president of
Honduras; a sprinkling of cabinet ministers and top politicians in
virtually every country in the world; and a brace of blue bloods, the
princes Charles of Wales and Albert of Monaco. President Donald I-don't-wear-masks Trump has, so far, escaped infection, to the rue of at least half of the world that has been secretly holding thumbs.
None of these leaders has succumbed. The biggest casualty, so
far, has been the dented pride of Bolsonaro, who finds himself laid low
by a virus that he denies exists.
Astonishingly, given that the assembled ranks of this African
National Congress administration’s Cabinet look like a medical poster
for dangerous comorbidities like obesity, none aside from Mineral
Resources & Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe has contracted the virus.
The explanation no doubt lies in their abstemious habits as regards
alcohol and tobacco. (Oh, for those halcyon days when a previous health
minister would bribe the nurses to smuggle her bottles of whisky while
she lay recovering from a liver transplant necessitated by her fondness
for the demon drink.)
There is, however, one top South African fatality potentially lined up. It’s President Cyril Ramaphosa himself.
Not a medical casualty, but a political one. After a promising
start by the president when the pandemic first surfaced, Ramaphosa’s
performance is, at last, coming under some critical examination.
After scoring a perfect 10 from commentators for speed out of
the blocks and initial form, Ramaphosa's execution has tapered off and
his administration has flailed around the pandemic. Sluggish, unfocused,
ineffectual, and erratic, are all adjectives that spring to mind to
describe the president.
Admittedly, the crowds still love him. Polls consistently show
Ramaphosa to be one of the most highly regarded leaders by the voters,
anywhere in the world. A recent News24 poll of 52,000 readers scored him
7.34 out of 10 for his handling of the Covid outbreak.
But internally, within the African National Congress and its
alliance, it's not so rosy. It's obvious that despite two and half years
in power, he has still not managed to stamp his authority over the
Zuma-remnants. On the contrary, the pandemic has emboldened them — with
an additional 3m unemployed since the March lockdown, the populist and
racist mantras espoused by the fascists in the Economic Freedom Fighters
and the hard-left in the ANC will likely find a ready electoral ear.
During the past four months of the pandemic, some of his
Cabinet ministers have been overt in their disdain towards Ramaphosa,
especially Police Minister Bheki Cele and the president's arch-rival,
Co-operative Affairs & Governance Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
The president has been forced into humiliating flip-flops on
cigarette bans and alcohol sales, wilting like an errant schoolboy
before the imperious school ma’am, Dlamini-Zuma. At least, on health
issues such as these, he can portray his weakness as evidence of an
admirable openness to persuasion by expert opinion.
However, no such rationalisation is possible when it comes to his reflexive bending of the knee to Cele, the Cat in the Hat police minister, and the other securocrats. He has faced repeated challenges and each time he has backed down.
At the very start of the lockdown, Ramaphosa called on the
military to treat citizens with respect, compassion and humility. “This
is not a skop, skiet en donder [kick, shoot and beat] moment,” he told them.
The put-down came within hours from Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula. “It will only be skop, skiet en donder when circumstances determine that,” she said. “For now, we’re a constitutional democracy.”
Cele — who also overruled Ramaphosa ally Health Minister Zweli
Mkhize on whether outside exercise would be allowed and later bizarrely
decreed that motorists without till slips for their cigarettes would be
arrested — speaks in similarly belligerent tones. With this overt
encouragement of the defence and police ministers, the security forces
have been predictably heavy handed in their enforcement of lockdown.
Consequently, there have been more than a dozen alleged deaths
and close on 500 complaints of security force violence. Yet Ramaphosa
has never unambiguously denounced their behaviour. Contrast this silent
complicity to the speed with which he publicly supported the #BlackLivesMatter protests, following the death of George Floyd at the hands of a Minneapolis cop.
One can find examples of Ramaphosa’s timidity in virtually
every area of his presidency. In law enforcement, there have been many
presidential reassurances but as yet no high-profile arrests or
prosecutions. In fact, he continues to tolerate in his inner circle
several men and women implicated in state capture and corruption.
Appeasement, or social compacting as he would describe it, is
the presidential watchword. Ramaphosa does not have the appetite for the
kind of confrontation with the unions and the SA Communist Party that
is necessary to close the national airline, secure alternative power
generation, fire the crooks and fools that run most of the state-owned
entities, and slash the public service wage bill.
Instead, he has let his Finance Minister Tito Mboweni do all
the running on these issues, with the president taking a very silent
backseat. How long Mboweni will be able to persist in his lonely battle
is not clear. The end of the road may be near for him, too.
It is remarkable, then, how resilient has been media regard for
Ramaphosa. It’s been a cosy political honeymoon, with the press
doe-eyed before his charm. Even when the failures have become too
glaring to gloss over, blame has accrued to his ministers but not him,
the man who appointed them.
With Covid mercilessly highlighting the Ramaphosa
administration’s ineptitude, this may, at last, be changing. Despite a
lockdown to “buy time” to prepare for pandemic deaths, aside from the
opposition-governed Western Cape, the preparations of the provinces have
been disastrously poor.
Ramaphosa’s weaknesses are being mercilessly exposed. The most
recent group to give his policies the up-yours — and see him immediately
back down — has been the minibus taxi industry on the issues of
passenger loading and interprovincial travel.
For Daily Maverick’s veteran commentator Ferial
Haffajee, the final straw appears to have been the resumption of load
shedding. She writes this week: “[It] is like an X-ray revealing the
weaknesses of Ramaphosa’s presidency and his inability to deliver on his
promises, no matter how well-meaning his intentions … No matter his
greatest intentions and personal popularity, Ramaphosa presides over a
broken state and patronage circles continue to expand.”
Business Day columnist Peter Bruce, who
patiently endured vitriolic abuse for his support of a tactical vote by
opposition voters for Ramaphosa in the past general election, is
similarly disenchanted. He writes this week: “Ramaphosa’s ability to
deftly finesse even the difficult trade-offs seems to have deserted him
during this crisis. His government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic
has been a lurch from one bumble to the next.”
“He may believe he is ‘standing with’ security and health hawks
in Cabinet, but he may, in fact, be merely appeasing them, and for the
first time I have begun to wonder whether, in fact, he will, in the
aftermath of this crisis, be able to hold onto leadership of the party.”
I think Bruce is probably right. As I’ve written previously in
this column, while it may be true Ramaphosa is the only person in the
ANC who could save SA, his fear of the almighty internecine battle that
such a rescue would entail, means that he won’t. He simply doesn't have
the courage or the energy.
His enemies, the Zuma-ites in his Cabinet and on his national
executive committee, circle him with hostile intent. To defeat them, he
would probably have to split the ANC.
But Ramaphosa’s one consistency, amply illustrated during the
pandemic, has been his willingness to put party before country. That’s
unlikely to change now.
Ramaphosa will either go meekly — another early recall — or continue to lead timorously.
Follow WSM on Twitter @TheJaundicedEye
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