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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  End of EU? Farage reveals the shock leader inside Europe that will soon topple Brussels

End of EU? Farage reveals the shock leader inside Europe that will soon topple Brussels

Started by Beeno155 REPLIES1,054 VIEWS· 12 Aug 2019, 10:50
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BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
12 Aug 2019, 10:50
#1
12 Aug 2019, 10:50#1

Oaks note the comments about the destruction of the Globalist project and the world governance they want us to live under.

I hear all sorts of reason why the globalist left hate Trump, mostly his personality but all of it total BS. As I have told the oaks repeatedly the REAL reason they hate Trump is he is destroying the Globalist's planned world government.

Repeatedly one sees this all coming out into the open and the battle rages. (Oaks if they wanted the corrupt anti American MSM could make Trump look like the greatest Saint ever but the lie and demonise him.)

Can the Globalists fool enough people is the question. At the moment it appears the tide has turned against them. We shall see.


BREXIT PARTY leader Nigel Farage has predicted “a massive rupture” inside Europe following Britain’s no deal departure - and revealed which EU leader he thinks will bring down the Brussels project.

Nigel Farage has predicted the imminent collapse of the European Union, if Britain manages to leave in a “proper Brexit”. In a prediction on Sky News Australia, the Brexit Party leader claimed that “a massive rupture inside Europe” was already brewing. He also revealed which EU leader will “complete” the task of destroying the EU after Britain “starts” it off.

He said: “If we get a proper Brexit it will be the end of the European project.

The end of the European project is the end of the globalist project.

“They all love the Brussels project because it is the prototype for the kind of world governance they want us to live under.

“This battle over Brexit is absolutely key.”

Mr Farage claimed the end of the European Union was now inevitable, after the Brexit referendum.

He explained: “Whether this happens on the 31st October or not, it is going to happen.

“The genie is out of the bottle. It is unstoppable." (Very dumb oaks like sharktwit and rooitwit are of course still in the dark and wonder what the heck is Beeno talking about. these two halfwits also still believe in 19th century Darwinism as well!!!)

When pressed on who would leave the EU after Britain, the Brexiteer said: “The real crisis the EU face is not mild-mannered Brits, its the Italians.”

They have had 20 years of no growth, it’s incredible for a country that back in the 1990s had great manufacturing companies.

“They got tied to the euro, and they have paid a hell of a price for it. (the notion that the Euro meets the needs of all the different economies of the EU is ABSURD)

“The Italians won’t give up on this. I think there will soon be a massive rupture inside Europe.

“Brexit begins the beginning of the end of the project, Italy completes it.”

AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
12 Aug 2019, 11:23
#2
12 Aug 2019, 11:23#2

It's not that easy. The Masonic, Heylelian ruling class want a global government, but the obliteration of the current world system. With the collapse of the EU they'll have ample ground to create the chaos they need to implement their new world system and none but a small few will resist it. The world is going to be a very different place once the Western world is reduced to rubble. 

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
12 Aug 2019, 13:59
#3
12 Aug 2019, 13:59#3

Oh what a surprise more EU doom predictions from Nigel Farrage regurgitated ad nauseam by the Daily Express. They have been running articles like this pretty much daily for the last few years.  Suppose why would the Express break a habit that goes back nearly 40 years.  

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
12 Aug 2019, 18:01
#4
12 Aug 2019, 18:01#4

Stav still wonder who you really are. 

Farage has proven to be 100% correct about the EU intentions of wanting to become a United States of Europe and have its own army etc dispite all the protests to the contrary.

The EU is failing and you have to be the most obstinate dumbass not to see this. 


BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
12 Aug 2019, 18:02
#5
12 Aug 2019, 18:02#5

Huffer, Revelations tells us what is going to happen but just when eludes one. 

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
12 Aug 2019, 18:28
#6
12 Aug 2019, 18:28#6

My name is Ernst Stavro Blofeld. and I work for S.P.E.C.T.R.E.....Paranoid much?

Farrage has proven absolutely nothing except he can manipulate lower and middle class people to vote for economic sanctions to be placed on themselves.

I live in the EU and seen its benefits. Taken on the whole the EU has been mostly successful and the facts back this up. 

But you wouldn't know anything about its real successes and failures. You have your world view and just listen to the narratives you want to listen to, staying in the echo chamber with the voices you want to hear, never checking the facts or dismissing any presented facts as counters to your arguments as fake news or just outright insulting them. Suppose that way of thinking has its appeal, its a damn sight easier than looking up the facts and merits of both sides of an argument and weighing them up subjectively. Not very intellectually satisfying or honest though is it?



BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
12 Aug 2019, 18:50
#7
12 Aug 2019, 18:50#7

The echo chamber is the chamber consisting of the elite globalist owned MSM and their cohorts in academia. 

You are full of bulldust. 

You known darn well the populist/nationalists are gaming ground all over Europe simply because of the failing open borders globalist BS.

Stave you are a brain washed clown!

You are also mole. 

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,217 posts
12 Aug 2019, 19:11
#8
12 Aug 2019, 19:11#8

Beeno is a brainwashed happy-clappy. He wants to believe the world is good and evil, always 2 sides. 

His Church uses a range of manipulation techniques like reverse phycology to say that they are scientists, and it is the rest of the world that is brainwashed. 

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
12 Aug 2019, 20:06
#9
12 Aug 2019, 20:06#9

Sharkbait  at least we know the Universe dvd not create itself out of nothing. Perhaps you will explain what happened. Once there was nothing and now look at what there is

We also know Christ wasn't crucified on Christmas Day. Bwahahahahahahahahaha

What a complete mampara poor sharktwit is!

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,217 posts
12 Aug 2019, 22:35
#10
12 Aug 2019, 22:35#10

So God created the universe out of the nothing is more logical than the universe creating itself out of nothing. Somehow God is able to change the rules because he does not need logic, only blind faith. 

Science has proven that the universe did have a start and it has been expanding ever since. Also that one day the universe will contract into nothing again (it is heavy, but nothing in space, and time may not even exist in this state). 

Science is still advancing, and in the future, a more detailed explanation will be available. 

In the meantime, you can accept that your "God" created the universe out of nothing and remain with the cavemen. 

Current theory of physics is influenced by current day maths, computers, as well as leading scientists such as Einstein. 

So the big bang theory has some logical backing, unlike "God" that is just blind faith and accepting that scripture is gospel. 

The explanation of how the universe works are much clearer than the proof that God exists. With so many religions, God is a self-made idea of someone creating God in their own image - if they were perfect.   

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,217 posts
12 Aug 2019, 22:59
#11
12 Aug 2019, 22:59#11

As for Farage, he has offered no solutions. His party will probably fade into obscurity after the exit. He jumped on the bandwagon when everyone was blaming everyone else.



ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
13 Aug 2019, 01:48
#12
13 Aug 2019, 01:48#12

Farrage makes a fortune out of trying to leave the EU but I reckon he really doesn't want it to happen, he will loose out on all the political donations he currently gets and the salary from being an MEP, but not only that but he probably knows deep down it will be a economic disaster and he will have to take a large amount of the blame for it in the end.

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
13 Aug 2019, 10:01
#13
13 Aug 2019, 10:01#13
Farage knows nothing about the EU. He hasn’t been near Brussels since yesterday. He should disregard what he has learned about the EU during the few days he’s been there and come to this forum to learn about the advantages and successes of the EU. He may learn that it is perfectly OK for 4.8m people to hold 67m people ransom with a threat of restarting a war and then blaming the 67m for it. Small man syndrome if you ask me.
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
13 Aug 2019, 10:10
#14
13 Aug 2019, 10:10#14

Farage doesn't want Brexit to happen. Here we plummet the depths of stupidity that this bull duster Stav likes to peddle. 

Thanks to Farage and the way Tories were switching to the Brexit Party, Boris got elected as PM to get Britain out of the EU or face the demise of the Conservative Party. Farage is so clearly holding Boris Johnson's feet to the fire.

Britain after a few hiccups will thrive outside of the failing EU. 

Face facts it's failing. Again I read about Germany facing a recession. Italy no growth in GDP for 20 years. 

Increasing trying to take over the running of the EU nation states and destroying their sovereignty. 

As Farage so ably put it the genie us out if the bottle and the EU will collapse. 

I see in Germany the ruling party leaders popularity is slumping. 

Roll on Brexit. Roll on the new Italian election and Salvini sweeping to power and an Italexit. That spells the end of the failed EU Project. 

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
13 Aug 2019, 10:19
#15
13 Aug 2019, 10:19#15

Sharktwit are you still posting more drivel. 

Science is saying once there was nothing now there is the universe etc. 

If God didn't create the universe what did. Face facts science has proved the existence of God. 

I should post a clip where various atheists scientists express how unhappy they are with what science has discovered, how unpalatable this all is and how unexpected. Hahahaha. 

As science progressive the blindingly obvious fact of a CREATION  becomes ever more apparent. 

You atheist "fools" will look ever more foolish. That is your destiny.

As the EU disintegrates ou Stav the globalist blowhard will look ever more foolish. The EU  simply doesn't work. 

How long will that globalist mommy's boy Macron last. Hahahaha you can't govern against the interests of the people and expect to survive. You can fool all the people all the time etc.


RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
13 Aug 2019, 10:21
#16
13 Aug 2019, 10:21#16

Only stupid people want Brexit just as only stupid people would vote for Bozo.

There should be some kind of weighting system at the polls based on IQ and education level. That way you'd prevent disasters like Brexit and Bozo.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
13 Aug 2019, 10:48
#17
13 Aug 2019, 10:48#17

No Roinek - I am neutral on EU - but dislike what they implement iro a variety of issues and the aspirations of the so-called EU Commission.   If the body was a rue international treaty organization - fine, but they are not.   They prescribe to nations what is to be done legislation wise and try and build up a European Union while the masses of workers are sidelined and is losing out badly iro their standard of living.  A true recipe for a dictatorship of the wealthy using the media to brainwash people.    

As to the Trump election as President - the USA would have been I serious trouble with the Clintons in charge.   That is clear - despite all the leftwing propaganda.   It is a case of lying and cheating on the part of the Obama  Administration and the Clintons and DNC that caused most of the attacks on Trump and that is what I hold against them.    They created the biggest political scandal ever in the history of the USA and you sympathize with them on that ?????     

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
13 Aug 2019, 10:51
#18
13 Aug 2019, 10:51#18

"Posted by: Rooinek (8817 posts)

Aug 13, 2019, 10:21

Only stupid people want Brexit just as only stupid people would vote for Bozo. "

Not true because you wouldn't want Brexit and you wouldn't vote for Trump, yet you are as stupid as they come.

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
13 Aug 2019, 11:00
#19
13 Aug 2019, 11:00#19

Farrarge is in Australia at the moment actually, slagging off the English royal family for some reason. Ceradyne all we want from the UK is to respect a peace treaty they signed with us.

RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
13 Aug 2019, 11:45
#20
13 Aug 2019, 11:45#20
"Not true because you wouldn't want Brexit and you wouldn't vote for Trump, yet you are as stupid as they come."
Ceradunce, is that witty and clever retort original or did you get a 4 year old to help you?
CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
13 Aug 2019, 12:11
#21
13 Aug 2019, 12:11#21
Nah. If I had to get the help of a four year old it would have been too complicated for you to understand.
RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
13 Aug 2019, 14:02
#22
13 Aug 2019, 14:02#22
Breaking news . . .


Nigel Farage admits to being a globalist stooge who is working with the globalists to derail Brexit.
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
13 Aug 2019, 14:07
#23
13 Aug 2019, 14:07#23

Oh come on windpomp be fair, rooibozo would about match a four year old!

Hahahahaha. 


ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
13 Aug 2019, 14:43
#24
13 Aug 2019, 14:43#24

Beeno1, your right in the respect that the Brexit Party are putting pressure on the Conservatives to go for a hard Brexit. But the Conservatives are trapped. If they don't leave they will continue to hemorrhage voters to to the Brexit Party, but if they do go for no deal they will likely be the political party held responsible by the public for inflicting massive economic damage and job losses on the country and could face political extinction at the polling boot. Either way its a self inflicted wound. 

I wonder what you define as a few hiccups and what you would consider as thriving. 

Germany is indeed facing a recession which is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Germany has gone through 1 quarter at -0.1% growth. 

However the UK has just reported -0.2 growth quarterly growth and is even more likely to go into recession than Germany is. Sterling is also in free fall at the moment. All due to the mess that is Brexit. But I know your going just say its because they remain in the EU, doesn't matter that the overwhelming majority of economists say its due to Brexit concerns.

Italy has posted growth in 15 or the last 20 years. Its by no means been strong growth, I think the average is around 0.6% growth, Italy has been one of the poorer preforming economies in the EU but it is just 1 or 28 economies and you have to look at the 28 economies as a whole to judge whether the EU economy has been successful or not. Its like saying the United States economy is is failing because two or three states are contracting or are showing sluggish growth.

 


CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
13 Aug 2019, 16:31
#25
13 Aug 2019, 16:31#25

"Posted by: Stavanger1 (82 posts)

Aug 13, 2019, 11:00

Farrarge is in Australia at the moment actually, slagging off the English royal family for some reason. Ceradyne all we want from the UK is to respect a peace treaty they signed with us . "

Who threatened who with violence breaking out again?

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
13 Aug 2019, 17:34
#26
13 Aug 2019, 17:34#26

Ireland is not threatening anyone with violence, its the illegal paramilitaries that could kick start the whole sh*tshow that was the troubles off again. Ireland is merely pointing out the obligations the UK committed too when it signed the GFA that it now wants to unilaterally change.

Tell me Caradyne what is so unreasonable about the Irish position.

The Irish position is that in the event of no other solution being in place, Northern Ireland should remain in the customs union as its currently the only known guaranteed way of avoiding a hard broader on the island of Ireland, the presence of which would effectively invalidate the GFA. If another solution does become available down the road we can move to that solution and NI can leave the customs union if they want too. That's basically the gist of the backstop.

The people of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU during the 2016 referendum and polls show that the majority of people in Northern Ireland favor remaining in the customs union.

Its only the hardline Unionist element in Northern Ireland (i.e. the DUP) that object to this. But they are not the majority view.

Ireland doesn't care if the rest of the UK is in or out of the customs union. The EU offered it to allow the whole of the UK to remain in the customs union as a concession when the DUP objected but the UK refused that as well. (Also the UK government where the ones who proposed that Northern Ireland remain in the customs union in the first place). But fine whatever the mainland UK leavi ng the custom union doesn't bother us.

Instead the UK are basically saying we want our trade agreement now and to trust them to sort out the Northern Ireland border later. But they have been totally unable to say how they will sort it out later. Ireland and the EU have ruled out the proposed electronic border for various reasons and even the UK admitted an electronic solution wouldn't be ready till 2030 at the earliest.



 

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,217 posts
13 Aug 2019, 21:26
#27
13 Aug 2019, 21:26#27
The easiest solution would be a revote. If everyone is still committed to the exit - now after seeing how hard it is to get a good deal, then it is certainly the best decision.
People are more informed now that a no-deal is the likely leaving deal. However, given all the problems of leaving the EU, people are more likely to vote to remain to stay. 
In the future, if leaving is wanted  - then their needs to be a plan of what the leave deal is. There should be a list of cost for replacements of EU suppliers with non-EU suppliers, or local alternatives in place. This will give a clearer idea of the GDP effects of short term and medium-term.  
The expectations were that the UK could have their cake and eat it, with all the benefits of the EU, but no restrictions. It has turned out to be the other way around with any of the proposed deals
ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
13 Aug 2019, 22:41
#28
13 Aug 2019, 22:41#28

I think your right sharkbok. Its far from ideal though as many voters in the UK would see a second vote and a remain outcome as a betrayal and despite being on the opposite side of the argument I do have some sympathy with that view point.

But its a better option than tens if not hundreds of thousands of lively-hoods being destroyed.

The Brexit leave vote was always a vote of passion and of the heart rather than of the head. The planning for leave should of been done before the vote was made so the public could of been better informed of the road ahead, but of course none of the main political parties campaigned for leave so thus never planned for it.



CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
13 Aug 2019, 22:43
#29
13 Aug 2019, 22:43#29

"The Irish position is that in the event of no other solution being in place, Northern Ireland should remain in the customs union  "

Ludicrous.

"The people of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU during the 2016 referendum and polls show that the majority of people in Northern Ireland favor remaining in the customs union.  "

It was a national referendum. The UK voted to leave. 

"Posted by: sharkbok (9509 posts)

Aug 13, 2019, 21:26

The easiest solution would be a revote. If everyone is still committed to the exit - now after seeing how hard it is to get a good deal, then it is certainly the best decision.  "

And if they again vote to leave? Do they vote again until Remain wins? 

The crux of the matter is that, despite what you and Stavros would like, the default position is to leave (without a deal if you want) on 31 October. The entire parliament already voted as such. If they try to stop it now, they are actually going against their own vote. How are you going to get the electorate to ignore that?

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
14 Aug 2019, 00:05
#30
14 Aug 2019, 00:05#30
Proclaiming it ludicrous does not make it so.

Fine the UK voted to leave. That does not excuse them from their obligation to adhere them to the terms of the GFA which they signed. 

If the UK voted to leave in a second referendum after all the information and economic forecasts have come to light, then I think the matter would be settled. I would think the UK mad buts it is their choice.

Its not actually clear what happens if no deal is reached on the 31st of October actually. The default position appears to be leave with no deal but that may not actually be legal. I've no idea what your talking about when you say that's what parliament voted for. The 31st of October is merely the end of the extension date and its the new government under Boris Johnson who are saying no matter what they are leaving on that date, but there never has been a majority in the UK parliament for a no deal Brexit. In fact its the opposite, the majority are actively trying to stop that scenario from happening.



CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
14 Aug 2019, 10:00
#31
14 Aug 2019, 10:00#31
1. You are harping on about the GFA. Which part of it is the UK about to dishonour? 2. “ Its not actually clear what happens if no deal is reached on the 31st of October actually. The default position appears to be leave with no deal but that may not actually be legal.“ It is 100% legal. The difficult challenge for the Remainers is to try and prove that it is not legal. Go find Theresa May’s notice to the UK’s intention, Ito of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. You will notice that it simply states that the UK is leaving on that date. Short and sweet. The idea that there has to be an FTA or that the UK has to stay in the Single Market is not mentioned anywhere. Neither is the Irish border. The extension until 31 October is to try and get parliamentary approval for the EU and Theresa May’s pathetic effort of a deal through Parliament. Should it (the deal) fail to get parliamentary approval, which has already happened three times before, then the UK leave on WTO rules and the UK start trading when and with who they want like every other country in the whole wide world outside of the EU. How is that not legal? It is crystal clear what happens on the 31st of October. If the EU do not change their stance on the backstop, then the UK leave without an FTA as it should have on 29 March. Of course there will be teething problems but it will not mean the end of the world. And it surely would not be illegal. Best in mind that the UK never had a referendum to join the EU. They only had a referendum in 1975 to stay in the EU. And here is the kicker. Labour were the ones not happy with the EU and wanted to renegotiate the terms of the UK’s membership of the UK. That was what triggered the 1975 referendum to remain in the EU. Remember also that France, of all countries, where the ones who vetoed the UK’s first attempt to join the EU. They are the ones who are now shouting that UK effectively wants to leave Europe while back in the sixties they did not want the UK to be “part of Europe”. Strange isn’t it?
ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
14 Aug 2019, 21:01
#32
14 Aug 2019, 21:01#32

1. The dispute at the heart of the Northern Ireland conflict is whether NI should be part of the UK or part of the Republic of Ireland.

Basically in an effort to end the conflict in the north the GFA allowed the citizens of Northern Ireland to choose their identity. British, Irish or both and create a form of co-sovereignty. So now that you can choose your nationality you're entitled to the passport of the nation you choose (or both). Being a citizen of either state currently automatically grants you the right of being an EU citizen.

If your an Irish citizen living in the North you can move freely between North and South without being stopped. Goods can also move freely without checks between North and South because of regularity alignment between the UK and Ireland thanks to both countries being members of the EU currently.

Now the UK wants to leave the EU and if Northern Ireland leaves the customs union then a hard border is required. Suddenly nationalists in the North can no longer freely travel across the border. They may be able to keep their Irish passport but they will no longer be EU citizens and lose the rights and benefits they are entitled to as EU citizens. Basically their Irish nationality will have less rights than Irish nationals in the south.

The spirit of the GFA was to remove any barriers from citizens choosing their national identity. Sticking up a border is basically removing a freedom from Irish nationalists in the north. It erects a barrier, you can be Irish, but you can't freely travel to Ireland!

There is also a section on economic issues that states, pending devolution, the British government should progress a regional development strategy that tackles "the problems of a divided society and social cohesion in urban, rural and border areas".

 Again sticking up a border is hardly in the spirit of that strand of the agreement.

If you thinking spirit of the agreement is something that can be ignored, note both the British and Irish government agree that the "letter and spirit" of the agreement must be observed. The British government know this, otherwise why would they have been proposing a technical border solution.

Also note the Brexit Referendum was just advisory and parliament the sovereign power in the UK had no legal obligations to act on it. They could of ignored it if the wanted too. But that wouldn't have been keeping with the spirit of the Referendum.

2. When I say it may not be legal to leave with no deal, the question comes down to whether Boris Johnson as PM has the right to take the UK out of the EU with no deal against the express wishes of parliament. There never has been a majority in parliament to leave with no deal. There is several plots being hatched by remainers and brexiteers at the moment so its difficult to know what will happen, there is a possibility of parliament being prorogued, Johnson losing a no confidence vote but not standing aside and using a two week grace period to prevent a unity government from forming thus running down the clock until its too late. He may be forced by parliament to go to the EU to ask for another extension, which he may do but then try to insult the EU into kicking the UK out. There is even talk of the Queen being dispatched to the EU to ask for the extension if Johnson won't. Hell a general election could be called for the same day as the UK leaves the EU. The UK could be out of the EU with no deal and have no government in place at the time. Which would be insane! I've no idea how it will play out yet.

"Of course there will be teething problems but it will not mean the end of the world. And it surely would not be illegal."

Teething problems will likely prove the understatement of the century. I don't think you fully appreciate the sheer scale of what a no deal really means.



RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
14 Aug 2019, 21:15
#33
14 Aug 2019, 21:15#33
Stavanger1, what are the main disagreements preventing a deal? 
We're always reading about Brexit with a deal and a no-deal Brexit but what exactly is preventing a deal from happening and who are the parties unwilling to compromise?
ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
15 Aug 2019, 00:59
#34
15 Aug 2019, 00:59#34

Its complex Rooinek, sorry if you find this along read.

Whats called the Irish Backstop has been cited as the primary disagreement preventing the deal. I can't say for certain but its possible the withdrawal agreement would have been passed by parliament already if not for the backstop. But its difficult to say for certain because there is many in the Conservative Party that dislike the withdrawal agreement in its entirety not just the backstop as they feel the agreement still ties them to the EU too much.

Currently because both Ireland the UK are EU members they have regulatory alignment, meaning goods can pass freely from NI to Ireland and vice versa with no checks. As it stands its an invisible border. The UK leaving changes that. While the UK, Ireland and the EU do not want a border, a border will be required to protect the integrity of the EU single market (and the new UK market). Basically the EU are saying they can't allow a back door into the EU where smugglers could move goods from NI into Ireland or vice versa without the relevant customs charges, paperwork and tariffs being applied. Otherwise everyone trading with the EU will say hey that's not a level playing field, your allowing tariff free goods into the EU via the NI border but are charging us tariffs. So a border is required, but at the same time the EU have acknowledged the special circumstances of Northern Ireland and its relationship to the Republic of Ireland that predate the EU.

In brief the backstop is the EU and Ireland's position that if the UK leaves and no arrangements are found to prevent a hard border returning to the island or Ireland, then Northern Ireland should remain in the EUs customs union until an arrangement is found that would not require the return of a hard border. This is in order to preserve the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement the treaty that brought an end to the 30 year long conflict in Northern Ireland known as the troubles. Its also for economic reasons, a border between north and south would cause damage to north south trade.

The British proposed an electronic border as a solution to the NI border issue. Which would involve camera's that could read number plates, per-approved trader schemes that would see all paperwork and customs check done away from border at the point of origin or delivery.

But the Irish and EU rejected that on the grounds that the technology is very expensive, the pre-approved trader schemes were not financially viable for the majority of small to medium size business that use the border and most of all the solution still required border infrastructure and would likely be a target by nationalist paramilitaries. Not to mention the technology does not exist and the British government admitted that saying it won't be ready till 2030 at the earliest. Think about it for a minute, your going need camera's that can read number plates at night or in heavy rain or fog, do you know of technology that can do that?

The UK has not come up with any other arrangements, though various Brexiteers have proposed the same technology border soltuion in slightly different wording several times.

If NI remained in the customs union, no border is needed. Checks of products going to Northern Ireland from the UK could be done in British ports and airports and that would be considerly far less intrusive than a hard border in Northern Ireland.

But there is have a problem with this. And this goes back to the last general election in the UK. What happened is when Theresa May called a snap general election, the Conservatives had the largest single share of the vote but still lost their majority in the House of Commons and they needed the assistance of another political party to form a majority in the House of Commons to be able to govern. That party was the Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland the largest single party in NI but small in the overall political landscape of the UK. The DUP are an ultra hardline unionist party and Brexit supporters. And when I say ultra hardline unionist I mean ultra ultra ultra hardline. Anything they perceive as a threat to Northern Ireland's place within the UK will be nuked from orbit so to speak and that includes Brexit. A side note is they are also the only political party in NI that oppose the Good Friday Agreement.

So to them the backstop which would leave Northern Ireland in the customs union is basically in their eyes a lessening of the union and is completely off the table.  They will bring down the government over it. So in effect the DUP has yielded massive influence over Brexit out of all proportion to the 10 MP's they have in parliament. So the EU said fine, how about we let the whole of the UK remain in the EU to placate the DUP's fears and ensure no difference between NI and the UK, but the Brexiteers freaked out at believing this concession was a trap to keep the UK in the EU as the EU would have to approve of any alternate arrangements giving them ultimate power over the UK leaving the customs union. The DUP and other Conservatives following  their lead cited the backstop as a threat to the union and voted against the withdrawal agreement that included the backstop on 3 occasions. Though many suspect that some of the hardline brexiteers in the Conservatives really wanted no deal all along and used the backstop as an excuse to reject the withdrawal agreements.

So as it stands the Conservatives and DUP have a parliamentary majority of just 1.  All other parties are united against a no deal exit. All it takes is for 1 conservative MP to rebel and no deal is blocked. Most estimates put the number of conservative rebels MP at somewhere between 10-20. They believe so strongly that a no deal brexit will be so bad for the UK that they will bring down their own government.

The UK government's position under Boris Johnson, is they want a trade deal with the EU but they want the withdrawal agreement re-opened and the backstop removed. The backstop has to go before the UK will even go to the negotiating table. They want the Northern Ireland border issue settled outside of the withdrawal agreement and in effect to basically trust them to come up with a fix in time. If those terms are not met, the UK will leave with no deal, though whether he can do this against parliaments wishes is another question.

The EU/Irelands position is the matter has already been settled. The backstop cannot be removed. They have the only known fix to the NI border issue. Its not perfect but its the least disruptive to the GFA and the north south economy. The Irish also do no trust the UK when it comes to the NI border and their promises to sort it out later. They promised the border was only ever meant to be a temporary arrangement when Ireland gained independence from the UK. Now they are breaking the spirit of the GFA in Irelands view. They view the UK's unwillingness to sign up to the backstop as an acknowledgement that the UK doesn't have other working alternate solutions to the border issue.

So the stare down between the UK and EU continues.



SH
sharkbokCaptain23,217 posts
15 Aug 2019, 01:23
#35
15 Aug 2019, 01:23#35
Scotland voted a few years ago if they wanted to be part of the UK. Scotland was seriously considering leaving the UK, but in the end, did not.
Now there is talk in Scotland that they want to be part of the EU, and now they want to leave the UK . So the UK could lose Scotland as a member. Maybe Wales would also consider this. 
Then their would-be lots of borders.
The Irish situation seems like some of Northern Ireland want to be part of the EU, and others part of the UK. The old legacy problem is that some wanted to be part of Ireland, and some wanted to be part of the UK. Now some will want to be part of the EU and Ireland, and others part of the UK. 
ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
15 Aug 2019, 02:43
#36
15 Aug 2019, 02:43#36

Yeah when Scotland voted to remain in the UK I would generally have considered the matter closed for a decade or two. But Scottish nationalists view Brexit as being such a significant change that a second vote should been considered. Would Scotland have voted to stay in the UK if they known that they would been taken out of the EU against their will. After all Scotland voted remain in the EU referendum.

Wales is different, while support for independence for Wales is on the rise a s well, polling shows support for leaving the UK is only around 15-20%. Wales voted for Brexit as well.

Shark your right about the issues in Ireland being a legacy situation. Northern Ireland is split along the traditional Unionist/Protestant side and the Nationalist/Catholic side. It roughly stands at 55% support for Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK currently. However the nationalist population is set to overtake the Unionist population in the next few years, some say as little as 5 but more likely in a 10-20 years time period. At that point a United Ireland will likely be voted through pretty quickly, which would effectively kill off the issue with the Northern Ireland border and the backstop once and for all.

For now the belief is that more moderate unionists particularly around the border region may switch to supporting a United Ireland for economic reasons in the the event of a hard Brexit. Not suggesting a huge number would switch but it would speed up the process of the nationalist gaining the majority and bringing in a vote for a united Ireland

Its funny in a way, one of the reasons the UK wanted to leave the EU was to take back control of its own seas so UK fisherman would have sole access to its own waters. They could end losing a third or so of there current territorial waters if Scotland and NI vote to leave them.

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
15 Aug 2019, 09:40
#37
15 Aug 2019, 09:40#37
What is truly absurd is Scotland wants to be  independent by being ruled from Brussels! Doubt Scotland would vote to leave when push comes to shove. Surgeon is one of these pervs saying children should be allowed to choose their sex at age 4. Scotland needs to give this ridiculous freak the boot ASAP.  Wallace and Co must be turning in their graves. 
Hopefully October will see Britain out of the open borders, nation destroying globalist EU. Then it's on to Italexit and the end of the failed EU Project! 
ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
15 Aug 2019, 12:46
#38
15 Aug 2019, 12:46#38

Well its not not known at this point if they do want to be independent or not or not, Scotland is fairly evenly split on the issue. Scotland unlike Northern Ireland would not automatically be entitled to EU membership in the event of independence, they would have to apply to join.

Again I'd love to know in what way other than freedom of movement among member states does Brussels hold sway over the member states, what laws or rules from Brussels affect the average citizen. Can you cite them please?

Do you have a link for where Surgeon said children should be allowed choose their sex at age 4. All I can find is said she wants to change the law to allow people to choose their gender. Children under the age of 16 would need their parents approval to do so.

Your saying William Wallace would disapprove of Scotland pursuing independence from England.....really.....like seriously are you suggesting that. I doubt discussion around gender identity ever occurred in the period he lived in and its extremely unlikely he would have any opinion on the issue.

I'd just fascinated to know how the EU is destroying nations. If say Ireland left the EU tomorrow, what freedoms would I gain . What could I do that I can't do as a member of the EU?


CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
15 Aug 2019, 13:37
#39
15 Aug 2019, 13:37#39

@Stavanger:

1. The dispute at the heart of the Northern Ireland conflict is whether NI should be part of the UK or part of the Republic of Ireland. 

Basically in an effort to end the conflict in the north the GFA allowed the citizens of Northern Ireland to choose their identity. British, Irish or both and create a form of co-sovereignty. So now that you can choose your nationality you're entitled to the passport of the nation you choose (or both). Being a citizen of either state currently automatically grants you the right of being an EU citizen.

The end of it was that NI is now part of the UK. How is being an Republic of Ireland citizen living in the UK different from any other EU citizen living in the UK? The only ones who have some kind of issue are those with Republic of Ireland passports only and are living in NI. They have two options. They could either apply for leave to remain which in their case is a simple admin arrangement with no cost involved. That is unlike the rest of us who had to jump through hoops and fork out thousands of pounds to remain in the UK.

2. When I say it may not be legal to leave with no deal, the question comes down to whether Boris Johnson as PM has the right to take the UK out of the EU with no deal against the express wishes of parliament. There never has been a majority in parliament to leave with no deal.

.....

Also note the Brexit Referendum was just advisory and parliament the sovereign power in the UK had no legal obligations to act on it.

He already has the legal right to do it. It is not a matter of following the wishes of parliament. It is a matter of following the wishes of the electorate who are above parliament. Parliament serves at the convenience of the electorate and not the other way around. 

Parliament agreed, by majority vote, to put it to the electorate. The format of the referendum, including the question was decided upon by majority vote in parliament. The decision, also by majority vote in parliament was that the vote of the electorate will be honoured, despite a referendum normally being an advisory instrument. In this case, it was explicitly agreed that the result would be honoured as an instruction by the electorate to terminate the UK membership of the EU.

Teething problems will likely prove the understatement of the century. I don't think you fully appreciate the sheer scale of what a no deal really means

A matter of opinion. I think otherwise.

In any case, Dominic Grieve, Philip Hammond, etc are all suddenly (once again) jumping on the "no deal was never debated in 2016" bandwagon, or was it?





RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
15 Aug 2019, 14:21
#40
15 Aug 2019, 14:21#40
Thanks Stav. 
Sounds like the simple and sensible solution would be Northern Ireland rejoining a United Ireland that stays in the EU.
I know that's just a pipe dream but what do you think Northern Ireland would vote if they held a referendum to choose between staying in the UK and leaving the EU or leaving the UK and staying in the EU as part of a United Ireland?
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