War shifts decisively in Russias favour

There is zero wrong with the analogy. Obviously, the Mexico-US relationship is entirely different to the Ukraine-Russia one. For your argument to make sense, you have to imply that I'm drawing parallels between these two relationships...which is fucking laughable. It's obviously not what I'm doing. More of the same cheap and silly tactics, huh? Lol because obviously, I'm saying that the Mexican government would be complicit in the murder of expat Americans living in Mexico. These are the lengths you'll go to in order to keep the walls of La La Land intact.

It's a hypothetical used to point at a double standard. You do know what hypotheticals and thought experiments are, don't you? Again, you will not address the hypothetical because it would show that there is indeed a double standard. We have to ignore this double standard or else everything falls apart.

How is this hard for you grasp. We don't live in a world of hypothetical's we live in a real world where things happen for a reason. Mexico isn't going to just decide one day out of the blue it wants to host nuclear weapon's or join a military alliance just because they think they are entitled too and they want to test that entitlement. They might do so if they feel there was a threat. Has the USA recently questioned the right of Mexico to exist, has it made comments like that American's and Mexican's are really one in the same people. Has the USA claimed the Mexican government is a Nazi junta or that Mexico is carrying out genocide against Americans? Answers on a postcard please.

Ok, do we know if Russian-speaking Ukrainians were murdered by the Ukraine government?

 The floor is yours. As far as I understand, it probably did occur. But you are welcome to make the case for it not happening. 

Well I can't categorically rule it out but from UN reports into the conflict in the Donbass most of the civilians where killed by mines and artillery fire by both sides, basically innocents caught in the crossfire.. Yes there was human rights violations and abuses by both sides in the conflict (more from the separatist side). I don't know whether those violations from the Ukrainian side where sanctioned from the Ukraine government or just individuals acting on their authority. 

Putin says it did happen and most in the West say it didn't. 

No Putin said there was an ongoing genocide in the Donbass, the west correctly said that's a load of bullshit. The number 14,000 killed was being banded about a lot, which people where implying was the number killed in the genocide when it was the actual total number of people killed in the conflict in Donbass since 2014 and that includes both military and civilian causalities.

This is from 5 years ago...

No one was disputing that there wasn't Neo-Nazi's in some of the Ukrainian units but that also applies to the Russian side. 

Tell me what you dispute here. Tell me that you can't see Russians being killed in Ukraine when this is what was going on five years back. I'm not saying it did happen, but I am saying that in that sort of environment, it very well could have.

You can't just take this out of context. You have to look at the whole picture at the time. The pro Russian leaning government killed protesters (which effectively triggered their downfall) Separatists rebelled following the revolution in 2014 . They probably would of been defeated pretty quickly but the Russian's stepped in to back them up. People where being killed on both sides of the conflict.

Both here's a thought experiment for you. Since your convinced Ukraine can't beat Russia, Russia is too strong for that to happen, surely you would of said the same thing to the Separatist forces when they rebeled, they would have never been strong enough to defeat the Ukrainian army right...unless they could and did get help from a stronger military power...like say oh Russia. Hmm I wonder if Ukraine could do the same thing?

What is the nearest Nuke that Russia has to Washington? Now, what is the nearest nuke that Nato has to Moscow? Again ,they must accept what we never will. Our way or the highway. 

I don't know where the nearest Nuke Russia has to Washington, but you do realise the Russian's have ICBM's and submarines capable of striking Washington?

As for NATO the nearest nukes to Moscow would be Germany and Turkey.

Tell me where is the nearest Russian Nuke to Warsaw and Berlin? It's Kaliningrad. Russia has nuclear weapons closer to pretty much all of the NATO capitals in Europe than NATO has to Moscow.

"Well I guess you where always going to be predisposed to that world view, you view everything through the prism of conspiracies."

LOL, the conspiracy card. So I guess the media didn't help sell us the IRAQ war narrative and their lack of appetite to hold the people that made the mistakes leading to all those dead Iraqis, was simply happenstance?

There are two options...here. You tell me which sounds the most reasonable...

1) The entire Western media and military complexes were entirely incompetent, or...

2) Parts of the Western media and military complexes we complicit in drumming up a war when there was no legal grounds for it...and a fuck load of innocent people died as a result.

But let's move away from speculation and go with the official story. It was simply a mistake. One that went from Iraq being mentioned within hours of the 911 attacks as likely being behind it, to WMDs and then finally to...oopsie, we made a booboo.

Great, so it was a mistake, is the official story. 

Now this is going to be very hard for you to follow but I'm going to try and say it at normal speed in the hopes that you'll keep up.

Nobody went to prison for the biggest case of culpable homicide that I, and I'm sure all of us here, have seen in this lifetime.

One more time...

NOBODY.

Let's assume that China or Russia made a similar mistake and that nobody was held accountable.

We know exactly what we would say and how we would feel about them. Russia evil...China evil...

But we don't hold ourselves to the same standard.

How is it possible for anybody not to see the glaring hypocrisy present in this?

And that's my point. Look at we have been responsible for and take responsibility instead of sitting here pretending that we don't do the exact same things that Russia is doing right now.

If enough of us do that then perhaps we could get to a place where these sorts of things don't happen anymore. Before then, we simply never will.

Is that really so difficult to understand?

"How is this hard for you grasp. We don't live in a world of hypothetical's we live in a real world where things happen for a reason. Mexico isn't going to just decide one day out of the blue it wants to host nuclear weapon's or join a military alliance just because they think they are entitled too and they want to test that entitlement. They might do so if they feel there was a threat. Has the USA recently questioned the right of Mexico to exist, has it made comments like that American's and Mexican's are really one in the same people. Has the USA claimed the Mexican government is a Nazi junta or that Mexico is carrying out genocide against Americans? Answers on a postcard please."

Really?

So there simply is no point posing a purely hypothetical situation when attempting to asses if one's thoughts on a subject are accurate or may be improved/widened?

Imagine if Einstein said that "this is the real world" and I will never actually be sitting on a train traveling at the speed of light. 

It's clear why won't engage in the hypothetical as presented .

Stop evading.

LOL

My god man, you literally misrepresent almost everything. 

I mentioned VPNs in the context of social media and diminishing the support Putin has as part of a strategy to apply pressure on him from within. at no point did I claim it was the only way to defeat Putin. 

As far as I can recall you where implying America could easily end the war in Ukraine if it wanted by a massive investment in supplying Russian civilians with VPN's. Anyone want to track down that post. I'll apologise if I'm wrong.

And you still haven't mentioned where you got those causalities figures form Plum. Is there a reason for that Plum??

Literally, everything you mention Russia being involved in or guilty of are things that NATO members have been doing since I was born.

Again not defending NATO or NATO members actions but there is some significant differences. NATO usually don't underpin their operations with genocidal rhetoric before they start their operations or partake in ethnic cleansing. NATO's mistakes are more down to misadventure and folly than being driven by imperialism. Because you will notice NATO eventually will leave a country if that is the wishes of the people. Russia will never leave Ukraine if it takes it over.

So let me say this very very very slowly...because you do not seem to be getting it.

They     are    ALL     playing    the    same    game   and     it's     useful     idiots     like     us     that     keep     the     game     going.

Its not a game to Ukraine. Its a matter of survival. Yes there be also a geopolitical game playing out as well but does not does not mean its wrong for the West to support Ukraine. Too goals can align you know?

LOL, the conspiracy card. So I guess the media didn't help sell us the IRAQ war narrative and their lack of appetite to hold the people that made the mistakes leading to all those dead Iraqis, was simply happenstance?

There are two options...here. You tell me which sounds the most reasonable...

1) The entire Western media and military complexes were entirely incompetent, or...

2) Parts of the Western media and military complexes we complicit in drumming up a war when there was no legal grounds for it...and a fuck load of innocent people died as a result.

But let's move away from speculation and go with the official story. It was simply a mistake. One that went from Iraq being mentioned within hours of the 911 attacks as likely being behind it, to WMDs and then finally to...oopsie, we made a booboo.

Great, so it was a mistake, is the official story. 

Now this is going to be very hard for you to follow but I'm going to try and say it at normal speed in the hopes that you'll keep up.

Nobody went to prison for the biggest case of culpable homicide that I, and I'm sure all of us here, have seen in this lifetime.

One more time...

NOBODY.

A broken clock is right twice a day, let say your mostly right about Iraq, still doesn't mean you're not a conspiracist, everything is a conspiracy to you. 9/11, Covid, now the Ukraine war etc.

Let's assume that China or Russia made a similar mistake and that nobody was held accountable.

We know exactly what we would say and how we would feel about them. Russia evil...China evil...

But we don't hold ourselves to the same standard.

Russia has made a similar mistake, the difference is Ukraine and the west are capable of stopping it where Russia could not and did not want to intervene in Iraq or Libya. However it still doesn't mean Russia will be held to account for its actions in Ukraine.

How is it possible for anybody not to see the glaring hypocrisy present in this?

Yeah so more West did bad shit in the past, therefore west should allow Russia do bad shit now.

And that's my point. Look at we have been responsib le for and take responsibility instead of sitting here pretending that we don't do the exact same things that Russia is doing right now.

Even more of it.

If enough of us do that then perhaps we could get to a place where these sorts of things don't happen anymore. Before then, we simply never will.

Is that really so difficult to understand?

You would think the lesson's of appeasements would of be learnt by now. It's just no a good idea to allow an aggressive country to go around unilaterally changing borders by force.

Really?

So there simply is no point posing a purely hypothetical situation when attempting to asses if one's thoughts on a subject are accurate or may be improved/widened?

Imagine if Einstein said that "this is the real world" and I will never actually be sitting on a train traveling at the speed of light. 

It's clear why won't engage in the hypothetical as presented.

Stop evading.

And now he's conflating the scientific method and geopolitics. Oh make it stop please.

Lol because thought experiments have to be scientific to be useful.

Just stop the bullshit and say what you actually think.

Next, you are going to say that simulations are only worthwhile when used for science.

"You would think the lesson's of appeasements would of be learnt by now. It's just no a good idea to allow an aggressive country to go around unilaterally changing borders by force." 

I totally agree.

In fact, I agree with your statement more than you do because I apply it to both the East and the West whereas you only seem willing to apply to the other team.

"Thanks for providing the post DA..."

Not sure if that is even the post that Stav is referring to... and I only remember the post because it was a discussion that I was also involved in, regarding Putin's inner circle.

Liberals have not changed theirs ways since 1776. Still they sound more and more like parodies of themselves.

Yeah we get it already, the West is bad, therefore Russia is entitled to be just as bad. Brilliant arguement.

A bit like allowing to export cluster bombs. Russia is using cluster bombs so it is now a national security concern for the US to export cluster bombs.

Liberals are self righteous.

We don't live in a world of hypothetical's we live in a real world where things happen for a reason. Mexico isn't going to just decide one day out of the blue it wants to host nuclear weapon's or join a military alliance just because they think they are entitled too and they want to test that entitlement.

People living in the world when they are simple minded do not consider that the US population is going to claim parentship with Mexico. What a narrative.

Firstly Ukraine wasn't hosting nukes. Secondly Mexico isn't looking for protection from China or Russia because they have no fear that America will invade them.

What a narrative. Protection delivered by whom. Maybe Mexico is well aware that neither China or Russia can provide an efficient protection from the US and that seeking the protection would be considered a major threat by the US. Which may escalade into an invasion.

Witnessing how it is difficult for those two countries to open military bases in other countries in full agreement with the local government paints a picture.

China must jump through loops to open bases in East Africa. East african governments willing to host bases demand absolute secrecy as they consider this could cause an operation to remove government (mainly through intelligence services)

Yeah so more West did bad shit in the past, therefore west should allow Russia do bad shit now.

It is not so much about allowing.

Liberals have grown experts in denouncing after the fact. They reap the benefits of theirs actions and then claiming it was bad actions while clinging to all the benefits they got from the actions.

Any cause how another countries should not have accessed to the same liberal line of behaviour.

Set a course of action to profit then claim the line of action is bad.

How Russia or China or any country can turn liberal if they are deprived of a major liberal attitude.

Russia from a liberal point of view must be allowed to invade Ukraine, be assessed through their capability to profit from the invasion and when it is done, allow to claim it was all bad action and thinking.

The liberal way.

Liberals do not want people to act the liberal way. How so, liberalism is the best thing to ever happen to humanity.

Mozart and Stav

Rusia DID  NOT annex Crimea in 2014 - it i distorted  garbage to even put it on the map.   There was an unconstitutional change in Government in Kiev and  the 1991 Constitution in Ukraine was discarded.   

So what did the 1991 Constitution of 1991 provided iro the Crimea.   It had to have its own Parliament that ran all the issues other than Foreign Affairs and aspects of Crimea financial management - national taxes being provided for.

When the 1991  Constitution was discarded the Crimean Parliament was faced by a problem - without the Constitution the Crimea Parliament decided that a referendum should be held as to the future of the Crimea.- the two issues to be decided on was either remaining part of Ukraine or whether the Crimea should apply to Russia for incorporation.   

The response was decisive 94% of the population decided to be incorporated in Russia,    Thatis not surprising 85%  to the population was ethnic Russian and 10% Tartars whiile only 5% was ethnic Ukrainians.     The USA stated that the referendum decision was fraudulent and not really a true outcome of the referendum was manipulated.   However two opinion surveys was subsequently conducted - one by a USA institution and another by a German one and the findings were clear - the number of supporters to be part of Russia increased to between 96 and 97%..

You would obvious regard Russian speaking people as subhumans who can be threatened with ethnic cleansing as was the case with the recent announcement of the Chief nnotiation advcisor of Zelenski to the effect that the Ukrainians aimed to destroy the Russian Cuture and expel all residents of Russian descend to Russia.   That threat was always present in Ukraine since the 2014 illegitimate destruction of the  1991 Constitution  and the main objective was to get control of the bases of the Russian Black Sea fleet in the Crimea.  Those bases operation was also in the 1991 Constitution in accodance of which the bases should be operated in accordance with a agreement that is binding on both  Russia and Ukraine.   The Ukraine Government suspended that agreement - another breach  of the Constitution approved by referendum in 1991.   

In essence the discarding of the Ukraine constitution removed all human rights protection in Ukraine - but that only applies to Ukrainians and not subhuman Russians.

By the way in the Minsk agreement it was clear that the Crimea will not be returned to Ukraine and effectively it was realized as such by Germany and France as representing the EU.   The Minsk agreement referred to the 2015 borders of the Ukraine inclusive of the rebel-held areas in the Donbas. area and the need for a constitution gauranteeing human rights for everybody  in Ukraine.  That agreement was undermined by the USA and there is ample proof of that - so it was never implemented by the USA controlled Government of Ukraine.

When a clear misrepresentation is in a document the rest of the issues raised is qu estionable at best.   

.                 

Lol because thought experiments have to be scientific to be useful.

No I just think its utterly dishonest to come up with hypothetical arguments that have nothing to do with reality.

Comparing Mexico/USA to Ukraine/Russia without taking into the consideration the geopolitical relations of the countries involved is just childish nonsense.

Just stop the bullshit and say what you actually think.

Oh the irony. You push Russian propaganda and talking points (where did you get those causality figure from again?). And all your solutions entail Russia getting exactly what it wants. 

Next, you are going to say that simulations are only worthwhile when used for science.

I can simulate Ireland trying to invade and conquer mainland Europe, bit pointless though because it's never going to happen, because you know... reality! The same reason Mexico doesn't want a fucking military alliance with China or Russia.

Thanks DA for the link to that thread.

I'll wait for Stav to apologise and then probably wait about 3 milliseconds for the "but" that comes after the apology.

I totally agree.

In fact, I agree with your statement more than you do because I apply it to both the East and the West whereas you only seem willing to apply to the other team.

No you seem to be saying its okay for Russia to do it because the other side did it in the past. More whataboutism. 

One should always listen to all sides....there are honest men and women on both and intelligent mature men do.

https://www.youtube.com/live/U6YY2YA726c?feature=share

Let’s just for a moment make a distinction between Iraq and Ukraine. It’s a fair point that these were both mistaken actions. The US should never have invaded Iraq…it was one of two huge mistake’s in Bush’s presidency. But…

Iraq did have nuclear ambitions and it had invaded Kuwait. De facto it was a danger to its neighbors, although I never believed Hussein would allow terrorists a stronghold in his fiefdom. The US was going through a paranoid period following 9/11 which shocked the country and it acted on bad intelligence

Still the US had no ambition to occupy Iraq, nor as is so often postulated, to grab Iraq’s oil.

Turn to the Ukraine..,the Ukraine in itself is no threat to its neighbors or Russia. The threat is the Ukraine’s potential relationship with NATO. Enough of a threat to destroy a country? I don’t think so, really more of a threat to the regime than the country.

For a man who boasts of his academic prowess in maths and stats, and CEO of Fortune 500 companies, and probably a very pleasant guy to meet in normal interaction over a meal or a whiskey and soda, which means very little in Geo-Politics, you are very ignorant and that's because you are self-centered egoist who just goes with what suits you or flatters you. What ii very apparent is that you have borderline dishonesty and manipulative. Even Rooiaas got that right although I admire very little of his character, but he is right . You are shallow, have artificial depth, you might be clever in maths, but so are many doo ses.

Thanks…..I think?

Violence...... "punching" .... with all the violence in the country this pothole wants to add to it. 

This forum is fecking mental.

I'm glad that you're part of it

I'm close to tears

There is as Beeno has rightly pointed out a raving lunatic onsite who now wants to slap someone with it's g-stri ng braai thongs.blobbok and the other bok are mere synonyms of this idiot.

Mozart has succumbed to the pressure from Mike and found refuge in the nutcase. 

There was a shift? When did this happen? Russia is presently annihilating the third army the Ukraine has been able to assemble. At no point did Ukraine ever look like anything but USSA fodder.

I do hope mozzz recovers his integrity and common sense.

Ou Rooitwit speaking well of Mozzz must be a red flag for him. 

Who would have thought Moz would get to this point!

As for StavAss I see Plum has his number. Very ignorant oak!

Now the war mongering Global elites want to send Cluster bombs and long range missiles to Ukraine. Anything to try and prolong the war and keep the money rolling.

But Colonel McGregor says it won't help. Ukraine has lost the war. 

Britain and France better watch out. Macron that Globalist puppet needs to go!

The EU countries are starting to kick out their far left Globalist governments. 

DEPORT ALL the invaders. ALL. 

Congrats to Mike on educating the bumpkins here regarding the Crimea elections. 

The same can be said of the two Russian populated provinces who voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. 

All Russian populated areas must revert to Russia. These people need protection from Zelensky's NAZI thugs. 

"Posted by: blobbok (3995 posts)

I'm close to tears"

I'm watching out for incoming meteors...ain't trusting this sh!t...something's way wrong with the fabric of space/ time or something!

There was a shift? When did this happen? Russia is presently annihilating the third army the Ukraine has been able to assemble.

LOL. Just LOL...the Russian cool aid is strong.

A Russian Major General was just sacked for speaking the truth that Ukraine counter battery fire is inflicting high casualties on the Russian forces and we have clowns like this taking about Russia annihilating Ukrainian forces.

Now all that needs to happen is for Denny to pop in again and reconcile with Moz ....Kumbaya...and you lot thinks there's no God...

For those of you that think the war has shifted decisively in Russia's favour and that Russia has built up enough man power to overwhelm Ukraine I'd like to bring to your attention to comments made today by Igor Girkin. 

Igor Girkin AKA Strelkov is a former Russian Army office and FSB agent who played a significant role in the Russian take over of Crimea. Since the start of Russo-Ukraine war he's been one of the most significant Russian military bloggers and one of the hardlines who believes Russia has not persecuted the war strongly enough and in that light he along with other hardline nationalists went on to found of Club of Angry Patriots calling for Russia to step up its war efforts. 

The summer battle continues where the enemy is now not trying to break through but push through our frontline and “starve it out”. 

The enemy continues applying main efforts in the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the second area where he is transferring reserves, including those previously unused, is Bakhmut. The enemy is trying to achieve a result wherever possible, without abandoning the plans to break the Zaporizhzhia front. 

After failures of attacks using concentrated columns, since columns like that ended up vulnerable to our artillery and aviation, the enemy moved to the tactic of a complete mixing with the ground of our units facing him. The enemy has a lot of shells, he’s not counting high-precision missiles.

 Due to this, the enemy is trying to destroy, and completely knock out the units facing him in battle. The enemy is trying to avoid mass attacks as he made sure that breakthrough doesn’t depend on the number of vehicles, whether 4 or 40, thrown into battle, only the number of burned vehicles does. 

Thus, offensive actions are led by fairly small assault groups with the support of several armoured vehicles, and all weapon systems used to destroy them are located by all types of enemy reconnaissances and then struck with artillery and high-precision missiles.

 […]

The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this.

It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state.

[...]

I will not be revealing a military secret - the enemy knows the situation very well, unfortunately. But even in the secondary directions, the staffing of our forces again does not exceed 70%. In areas of the most fierce battles, it is significantly less.

Of course, it does not compare to the situation at the end of last summer/early autumn, when 20% staffing of units was considered normal, but our forces are taking losses continuously, while the stream of reinforcements and reservists from the rear has died down.

 This means that if urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia. And it will be then very difficult to stop him, and no Surovikin’s line which is still in a pretty deep rear will stop the enemy if it’s not taken by trained, properly equipped, and experienced troops.

If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy. This is the main question now: will the enemy be able to gnaw through our defence in 2-3 weeks, exchanging his soldiers for ours, or not, and will exhaust himself earlier.

 […]

We’re observing. Unfortuantely, we as the Angry Patriots’ Club are unable to do anything in this situation. Moreover, I understand the emotions of our Head of General Staff, the commander of the operation Gerasimov, when “some” army commander makes demands about the rotation of units.

Gerasimov does not have prepared and equipped reserves. Simply does not. All he has is already on the frontline, at the very least in tactical reserves. Transferring from other areas means weakening them. But transferring poorly trained mobilised units who are, let’s say, covering the “old regions” of Russia, is not a solution. These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy and no one will be able to do anything about it."

All Stav and DA want is for more blood to be shed in a land they probably have never even set foot on. 

Also here the comments of Major General Ivan Popov a well regarded Russian commander who was dismissed from his post as Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army 2 days ago.

"A difficult situation with the leadership emerged. It was a choice between remaining silent and afraid and saying what they wanted to hear, or calling things for what they are. In your name, in the name of all perished comrades-in-arms, I didn’t have the right to lie. Hence I named all the problems that exist today in the army regarding operations, supply. I pointed the attention to the most important tragedy of the modern war - the lack of counter-battery fire, lack of artillery reconnaissance stations, and mass casualties and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery.

Yes poopal, the Russians list all their planes, tanks, men ages ago according to your propoganda.