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With Johnston comes hope

Started by Beeno144 REPLIES858 VIEWS· 23 Jul 2019, 12:21
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CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
25 Jul 2019, 10:27
#41
25 Jul 2019, 10:27#41

SB

Where is your sense of humour?

Anyway - the Communists was always in league with some American capitalists who kept the Regime alive until Reagan, Thatcher and Kohl stopped them from supporting the Communist Regime.

The media owners and the internet preach Socialism and those are the present dangers since they emulate the Communists in all respects.  Try Google for instance. .   

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
25 Jul 2019, 10:54
#42
25 Jul 2019, 10:54#42

Borvs holds the cards. Firstly he doesn't have to cough up the 39 Billion. Next the EU enjoys a trade surplus with the UK of some 64 billion last year.

However the huge plus for Boris is he knows countries are lining up to make trade deals with the UK including the mighty USA. There can be no doubt whatsoever the UK will thrive outside the failing EU.

Saw again yesterday fears regarding Germany moving into recession.

The UK will regain control of vts borders and its ability to govern itself in its own interest.

All vast majority of countries trade with the EU under WTO terms so there is zero reason why the UK cant do the same.

What the UK needs is a Donald trump. Time will tell if Boris can rise to that august level. Probably not but we shall see.

Draad if you think that what happens in the EU and for that matter doesn't concern us here in SA you are making a very big mistake. The establishment of the Globalist dominated World government is a threat to ALL of mankind and you know what i am talking about.

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
25 Jul 2019, 13:55
#43
25 Jul 2019, 13:55#43

Boris could withhold the 39 Billion. The EU would likely take the UK to court but that's a case that could take years to resolve and who knows who would have authority to rule on it. The UK could in the long run end up having to pay more, its all very messy. Not to mention the damage not paying its financial obligations would do to the UK's reputation. Yes the UK has a trade surplus but so does Ireland have a trade surplus with the UK but we are not silly enough to claim that leaves up holding the cards because we are a much smaller economy than the UK as is the UK to the EU, so the % loss of trade will be far greater on the UK side than EU side. Its basis maths at this point.

The Secretary general of the international chamber of commerce Chris Southworth has said he can not see the UK getting back to reaching the number of trade deals they currently have via the EU for at least 20 years. Even a trade deal with the US would not offset the loss of trade from having no deal with the EU.

Have you see the forecasts for the UK economy in the event of no deal from rating agency Moody's, the IMF, the UK treasury and the office of budgetary responsibility (which was specifically set up to remove political influence over economic forecasts). They are not pretty, anything from a loss of £30 to £90 billion loss to UK  economy, recession for 1-2 years GPD growth drop of between 3-9%. Have you seen the comments from the current and former head of the WTO who have said the UK moving from trading via the EU to WTO terms would be hugely problematic.

But I doubt any of what I say matter to you or to no deal Brexiteer supporters. 

I'll ask you the following question. What would you consider a successful outcome or a no deal brexit be and what would be a failure. 

I would say a no deal could be considered a success, if there was only a minor dip to the UK economy and it recovered say within a few months to a year (economic growth returned). That jobs losses where only in the low thousands. That delays at ports and borders be resolved in a few weeks to say about 3 months. That there is no significant issues with the NI border. That a trade deal with America and other major economic power was signed within say 2 years. Even if economic growth in the UK isn't as good as the projections for the UK remaining in the EU, but are say almost as good or even half as good, I would say well that isn't too bad maybe it was mostly project fear.

I believe they would be pretty quick indicators on whether the warnings where exaggerated or accurate.

But for those advocating for a no deal. Will you stand up and say we got it wrong if the the warnings and forecasts are accurate.

Brexiteers have gone from "a trade deal will be the easiest in history" to "we have nothing to fear from no deal" and now are moving to "its the EU's fault if there is no deal".

Also Boris is more of an Ivanka Trump!


SH
sharkbokCaptain23,217 posts
25 Jul 2019, 18:29
#44
25 Jul 2019, 18:29#44
Initially, I was a 60/40 remainder. However, at no point have I ever felt confident what the best decision is. Not enough information about the benefits and drawbacks, as well as unknowns like how long it will take to renegotiate new trading deals.
At this point I a reluctant advocate of leaving with no deal. All deals offered so far are not worth it, and starting the renegotiations from a fresh slate seems like the only option. 
If it is the wrong option, I will admit it. It seems like the only option this stage, because leaving the EU has been decided, and any deal offered has been crap. 
ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
25 Jul 2019, 21:13
#45
25 Jul 2019, 21:13#45

The main issue with the withdrawal agreement for the UK is the backstop. Chances are if the backstop wasn't in it the withdrawal agreement it would have already got through the UK parliament and the UK would have left the EU by now. (assuming the DUP were not holding the balance of power)

The deal that would of annoyed the fewest people would of been simply to leave Northern Ireland in the customs union and effectively put the border down the Irish sea.

The custom checks could be done at UK airports and ports as opposed to having a border on the island of Ireland. Officially citizens of Northern Ireland are allowed passport free travel to the UK but passports are required by air and sea carriers so its a moot point. Having additional checks at airports and ports for things like customs declarations would have be far less intrusive and cost effective than creating a manned border between the Rep of Ireland and Northern Ireland. After all the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain, so the majority of people north and south would accept that.

The problem with this option is the hardline Unionist element in Northern Ireland won't allow that, as they see that as Northern Ireland been treated different from the UK (even though they already are in some ways, like in terms of transport of livestock and abortion laws) and a threat to the Union. Its this group in the form of the DUP that hold the balance of power, they can bring down the Conservatives if they tried to do this.


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