Yah....Sinwar is defeated

Perplexity opines...

Based on the information provided in the search results, here are the main causes of inflation that started a few years ago, ranked by their approximate importance:

COVID-19 pandemic (40%)

The coronavirus pandemic caused significant supply chain disruptions and shortages, followed by a surge in demand as lockdowns eased4. This created substantial inflationary pressures across various sectors.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine (30%)

This geopolitical event had a major impact on energy and food prices globally4. It significantly reduced the supply of gas from Russia, driving up energy costs for households and businesses.

Labor shortages (20%)

Post-pandemic workforce changes led to a shortage of available workers in many countries, including the UK. This increased hiring costs and pushed businesses to raise prices .

Expansionary monetary policies (10%)

While not explicitly mentioned as a primary cause, the search results allude to the role of monetary policies in potentially fueling inflation. This includes measures like lowering interest rates and increasing money supply to stimulate economic recovery.

Additional factors

While less significant, these factors also contributed to inflationary pressures:

Pent-up consumer demand following pandemic restrictions

Rising commodity prices

Ongoing supply chain challenges

Increased government spending and stimulus measures

It's important to note that these causes often interacted with and amplified each other, creating a complex inflationary environment. The percentages provided are approximate and based on the relative emphasis given to each factor in the search results.

I’m not linking to experts, I was schooling you on who is really respected on Wall Street. You then looked up Ken Griffin and presumably thought he supported your position….so I schooled you about that as well.

As for the ‘experts’ as a former lead director of one of Wall street’s institutions, I realized you can find an expert to support almost any position. So you are back to choosing your own position.

But of course to do that you have to be educated in the subject. So I wonder, what’s your economic education Anger. Man up and give us the details.

I’m content with the Federal Reserve model by the way.

I’m not linking to experts, I was schooling you on who is really respected on Wall Street. 

Really respected on Wall Street and also of the view that Biden's stimulus package wasn't responsible for most of the Inflation, with supply chain kinks, labour shortages and the war in Ukraine's overall contributing more.

As for the ‘experts’ as a former lead director of one of Wall street’s institutions, I realized you can find an expert to support almost any position. So you are back to choosing your position.

Yes you can find someone to support any position, but you know that doesn't mean each position is equally valid.  Like when it comes to the climate change debate you can find climate scientists who are sceptical of anthropogenic climate change but the overwhelming majority of climate scientists are proponents of anthropogenic climate change and the preponderance of research supports that view. 

Likewise when it comes to inflation the majority of economists are of the view that other factors contributed more to the rise of inflation in the US between 2021 and 2023 than Biden's fiscal policies . 

 former lead director of one of Wall street’s institutions

That might have in the past made me give more weight to your opinion on financial discussions but that train left the station as soon as you expressed support for Brexit, at that point I downgraded my rating of your opinion on economies to junk status.  Pretty much every economist on the planet said it would be disaster for the UK and so it turned out to be. Yet you where still expressing support for it even when the proponents of Brexit in the UK where saying Brexit was a failure and there was reams of economic data showing the negative impact. That's the problem with you Moz, is even if you have knowledge of economics, you can't objectively process information that conflicts with your political ideology.

But of course to do that you have to be educated in the subject. So I wonder, what’s your economic education Anger. Man up and give us the details.

Oh the appeal to authority.

I’m content with the Federal Reserve model.

You know the Federal Reserve Model doesn't contradict my view that most of the inflation was not caused by Biden.

Let’s be honest Anger you started all this with a supply chain interruption argument. But it turns out 2/3 of the effect comes from surging demand, half of which was caused by fiscal stimulus. So you were wrong in focusing on supply chain issues and the Trump nutters are wrong attributing it all to Biden.

But Biden made the policy decision to stimulate when inflation was already rising adding significantly to the problem in the US, strengthening the dollar and adding that burden to other countries. It was a costly mistake.

The Federal  Reserve model doesn’t exonerate Biden. Your standard that Trump supporters believe all inflation was because of Biden, is just an overstatement to knock down.

As for Brexit anybody who thought Brexit wasn’t going to have a short term economic cost was not being realistic. The argument was always that new trade relationships, especially with the US would have to be built. 

So public opinion on Brexit has worsened. But the exchange rate of the pound against the Euro is almost exactly the same. And after a period of underperformance, the UK is beginning to perform better than other large European economies:

On 25 September, the OECD published

This thing needs to be measured after 10 years. In the meantime Germany the European leader, looks particularly challenged for the future.

As for the appeal to authority. Nonsense, it’s a simple question. Do you have any meaningful education in economics. Not a hard question to answer. 

Let’s be honest Anger you started all this with a supply chain interruption argument. But it turns out 2/3 of the effect comes from surging demand, half of which was caused by fiscal stimulus

No my first comments about inflation where

As for only facts I like, I'm not the one ignoring the numerous economists that point out the factors outsides of Biden's control that drove most of the inflation during his term.

and 

But that doesn't mean Biden was responsible for either. Likewise he wasn't responsible for Ukraine and only partially responsible for inflation.

Its at this point you interjected for some pointless reason because in the end you agree with the fact that most inflation wasn't attributably to Biden.

. So you were wrong in focusing on supply chain issues and the Trump nutters are wrong attributing it all to Biden.

Again most economic assessment's I've had supply chain as a major contributor to inflation and most put greater emphasis on it that Biden's stimulus package. Glad we agree on the Trump nutters.

But Biden made the policy decision to stimulate when inflation was already rising adding significantly to the problem in the US, strengthening the dollar and adding that burden to other countries. It was a costly mistake.

Inflation was rising, but nothing out of the ordinary. In hindsight if you want to argue it was a mistake you can, the issue I have is politicization of the issue, where we got people like Draad implying  inflation would not have been high between 2021-2023 if Trump had not been President and that inflation was solely down to Biden.

The Federal  Reserve model doesn’t exonerate Biden. Your standard that Trump supporters believe all inflation was because of Biden, is just an overstatement to knock down.

Nor I'm exonerating Biden, I was just responding to Draad's simplified view that if Trump had been the President this term President inflation would have remained low in the US.

As for Brexit anybody who thought Brexit wasn’t going to have a short term economic cost was not being realistic.

Its a shame that the people who campaigned for Brexit in the UK never actually said anything like that. Brexit was never sold on short term pain for long term gain (something which most economists disagree with it, Brexit will be a long term drag on the UK's economy). Had Brexiteers said anything like that, they would have never won.

 The argument was always that new trade relationships, especially with the US would have to be built. 

New trade relationships which virtually every economy assessment shows will not offset the loss of trade with the EU. Brexiteers also mislead the public on the length of time it would take to secure trade deals.

So public opinion on Brexit has worsened. But the exchange rate of the pound against the Euro is almost exactly the same. And after a period of underperformance, the UK is beginning to perform better than other large European economies:

The rebound can be attributed to catch up effects after a shallow technical recission in the UK last year. Just like the UK had greater economic growth than EU coming out of Covid it didn't offset the fact that UK economy had tanked further during Covid) The graph you show is another case of you cherry picking. Look at GDP growth for the last few years and look at the projections for 2025. Hey check out what the best and brightest over at Goldman Sachs have to say about Brexit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html?msockid=3fa0bf92072f69b806ceab6906c56891

This thing needs to be measured after 10 years. 

I'll talk to you in around 6 years time so. 

In the meantime Germany the European leader, looks particularly challenged for the future.

Germany is doing poorly because it was harder hit by the war in Ukraine, due to its reliance on cheap Russian gas to power its economy. Its dragging the EU average down with it. Now you can criticize the Germans all you want for putting themselves in that position, but the fact that Germany made a major economic mistake doesn't make Brexit any less stupid an idea.

As for the appeal to authority. Nonsense, it’s a simple question. Do you have any meaningful education in economics. Not a hard question to answer. 

Yes it is an appeal to authority. 

This from ChatGTP:

The cumulative GDP growth rates for the UK and the Eurozone over the specified periods are as follows:

• 2014-2018:
• UK: 11.8%
• Eurozone: 10.7%
• 2019-2023:
• UK: 3.4%
• Eurozone: 3.8

Hardly the economic disaster portrayed in the media. The Brits haven’t enjoyed the experience. I suppose it’s a little more difficult managing your vacation home in Spain. But relative to being shackled to a declining Europe, it will turn out to be a great decision.

Life hasn’t been great the last 4 years and Brexit is an easy thing to blame rather than Covid, the Ukraine, the exported US inflation, the failure of the UK car industry (what the hell is happening to Jaguar) and a series of completely incompetent governments.