No Deal Brexit could reduce UK economy by 25% for the immediate future

EU NATIONS would have seen their national incomes collapse if a Brexit extension was not granted to the UK and Britain left the trade bloc without a deal on March 29.

According to German publication Haute.com, a no deal Brexit would spell disaster for nations such as Austria, which would see its income would collapse by a staggering 724million euros annually. Europe, without Britain, would have to accept income losses of 40billion euros per year in the case of a hard Brexit, German Bertelsmann Foundation has now recalculated. According to the figures, Austria gets away comparatively well with 724million euros a year, which works out as 83 euros per capita.

Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Modi in 2017

The publication says that Europeans will not have the "pain of separation", but will have less money in the stock market.

US incomes could rise by around 13 billion euros annually in the case of a hard Brexit, and by around 5 billion euros in China. In Russia, a slight increase of around 260 million euros would be expected annually.

• (JointFuel360)

The study also says China would greatly benefit from Brexit, though the power states’ gains are loses for the EU with trade.

Study author Dominic Ponattu said: “Brexit could severely damage the foundations of the world's largest common economic space.”

“Brussels and London must do everything possible to regulate the exit contract.”

Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, all of which are economically intertwined by agreements with the EU, would also see their incomes affected.

•  after Brexit

Switzerland would lose 1.34 billion euros, according to the renowned Bertelsmann Foundation in its latest study.

An extension would give Prime Minister Theresa May time to get her controversial deal through Parliament, according to the EU.

A deal with Brussels would mean Europe would lose less.

The Bertelsmann research calculated Switzerland would lose 743million euros, meaning their original calculation would be halved in the event of a UK-EU deal.

As for the UK, the British economy would plummet to 32billion euros from 40billion should Mrs May scoop a deal with the bloc.

Aart De Geus, CEO of the Bertelsmann Foundation, said: “Brussels and London must do everything in order to regulate the exit contractually.”

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Sorry, I posted in the wrong section again. (It would be nice if their was an edit button to move into the Beeno section)...

Lots of figures thrown at the reader without even a simple attempt to give any logical reason for it. Sounds likesome othe BS they peddle as facts too.

Hahaha ha how is it that poor sharkbokkie always gets it so wrong. 

Listen to Dr Moz. Many economists argue strongly that the UK will thrive once indepent. I seem to racall that trade with the EU amounts to some 10%.Once out of the EU there are countries lining up to sign trade and top of the list is the USA which has a larger economy than the declining EU with even Germany almost in recession.

The ignorant ou sharkbokkie has never heard of "Operation Fear" spewed out by the open borders elite owned Globalist MSM who seek the destruction of nation states. 

Bet poor sharkbokkie has forgotten or refuses to take into account the  doomsday prediction by Globalist liars regarding how the USA economy would crash if Trump were elected!!!. But the very gullible Sharkbokkie sucks all up time and again and then has to be corrected by informed posters. 

Regardless, to survive as a SOVEREIGN NATION STATE THE BRITS HAVE TO LEAVE THE EU - MEANING NO DEAL.

May God have mercy on the UK and deliver the British People from the treasonous Globalist scumbags. 

May sharkbokkie wise up as he really should know much better. Beeno ever hopeful! 

One wonders about the figures touted because the trade surplus of the EU countries with  the UK is massive and with the UK leaving the UK would actually be bad for the EU economy,   The UK has a huge trade deficit with Europe- mostly through agricultural imports from the EU.   Would it not be better for the UK to import food from Countries outside of the EU - and may even eb cheaper to do so. 

I am not sure why the EU is really fighting like hell to get a deal accepted by the UK that would cause problems for the UK and is trying to force the UK to hold a second referendum - knowing full well they stand to lose massively should the UK leave the EU, 

They tried the same stunt with Ireland, Portugal and  the Netherlands when their were unfaourable referendum outcomes.  In the case of Ireland the outcome of the first referendum caused a second one - which the EU facvourites winning the second time around.  Will the same happen in another EU election and will such a second referendum not destroy the major parties at present  governing in the UK.   

Both the Conservative and Labour Parties could lose major support if they openly canvas for remain in a new referendum.   Both had huge elements internally favouring Brexit - the Labour Party particularly because more of its seats voted for Brexit than voted to remain.              .       . 

The other problem is that there is no certainty that the second referendum would have a different outcome from the first one.   The EU situation looks somewhat dismal at present with a number of countries really opposing the Government from Brussels they are subjected to.   Fact is the sceptics are playing an increasing role in the Governments of a number of countries - so what would happen even of a second referendum is one by the remainers,    No party in the UK will not be split down the middle by propagating remain in a second referendum.    

Even if the second referendum results in the UK - the Labour and Conservative Parties could end up weakened badly by reaming in the EU because of weaknesses such as those in other EU countries where weak coalitions govern a lot of them.    Any political parties would have to find coalitions and such government in the UK would rely on support from the Scottish Nationalists whop wants another referendum to exit the UK as well.   In such an event the Labour Party - who depends on the Scottish Nationalists for support in the UK Parliament anyway will lose out badly i f the Scots leave the UK.   

To remain would be bad news for the  UK - to leave would be no better.                 

@Ceradyne, you are pussyfooting with semantics. The reality is the Brexit saga has reduced the economy- and currency value. While there are advantages of a weak currency it is certainly better to have a strong one than a weak one. 

While I am not an economist, currency is certainly related to the value of an economy. Look at South Africa, anytime that moron Zuma was on the news the currency declined. It is like company shares, the more people sell them the weaker they become. (Supply & Demand)

When I went on holiday recently the Euro was around the same as pounds. I don't recall ever seeing this before. From what I recall the pound was usually around 33% stronger.

 It is true that EU is not stronger than pounds yet, but that would probably change following a no deal Brexit. 

Sharkbokkie as a financial illiterate you should listen to your betters and be grateful that they even bother with a mampara like you.

The UK is doing a lot better than the EU as they do not use the one size fits all disastrous Euro. The globalist ruled EU is so over regulated it is dying. 

What European countries need are savvy patriotic people like Trump.

Sharkbokkie rather you stick to explaining why the one trick Stormers beat the hapless guppies. LMAO!!  

The problem to my mind is - why should the UK - with a massive trade deficit with the EU suffer because of leaving the EU.   There are other counties that would provide the things the UK need  and do so even at a cheaper price than the UK paid at present for goods they import from the EU.

The starting thread deal with the losses the EU countries will suffer and give amounts to that - but the real reason for the present scenario is that the EU dare not negotiate a realistic agreement with the UK  as to leaving the EU because it could easily lead to exist s from a number of other countries,  

That would be catastrophic because when the flood started it could be Italy, Austria, Hungary and Poland next in line to depart - and there is no certainty that France, Spain, Greece and Portugal will not also  start processes to leave.

I am sorry - the ideals of the EU on paper looks good - in reality it has been taken over by people with no real regard to democracy and most EU countries have massive problems in forming coalitions to govern them.   In some countries historic parties that supported the EU has collapsed totally and there are massive evidence of that in all EU countries.   

For instance in France - the Socialists and Gaullist parties have all but vanished,   In Italy the Communist Party - once the strongest party of its kind in Western Europe - is totally gone and so did the other established parties.   In Greece the opposition to the Socialist Government .did survive  but is getting stronger because of the EU situation.   One can repeat virtually every country in Europe and the results are the same.               

Mike the globalist one world government scumbags thought they had the USA, and Europe firmly under their grip. Add in Canada and other countries and they had over half the world's GDP under their control as a basis for roping in ever more countries. BUT along came Brexit and Trump as people began to get an inkling these traitors were working for the destruction of the people they governed.

So now we see the European peoples saying a loud no to open borders and the destruction of their nation states..

How desperate were the globalist forces and their MSM to destroy Trump with the insurance policy of the Russian collusion hoax. But they again failed and have taken a heavy blow. The WAR continues as the Globalists struggle to stop Brexit and they will continue to attack Trump. But are weakening by the day. Hopefully they will be completely crushed.

The nz oaks are firmly under globalist rule and are some years away from a large scale understanding what is happening. The kbbs are typically a backward bunch as we can readily discern by the vast ignorance displayed by Cloudy , Crusader Fan and the maniacal pooooooo e

They are all as bad as Cloudy's very servile gimp rooijackass the RED!

• The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2017, UK exports to the EU were £274 billion (44% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £341 billion (53% of all UK imports).

@Sharkbok, 

“The bank of England has said it could be over 20%. Sure, they are not the Gospel- but they know more about economics than I do. “

The Bank of England is totally Globalist and was part of globalist cabal who ran Operation Fear before the Brexit vote and failed.

These same liars predicted economic Armageddon if Trump won. They predicted disaster if Trump applied tarrifs on their Chinese buddies they were exporting jobs and intellectual property too.

So what has happened. US stock market is up 40% and Chinese market is down 40%.

You have to know when you are hearing globalist prolaganda. You are so oblivious to what is going on its astonishing. 

Sharkbokkie please wise up oak you are so naive even I get embarrassed for you. 

now the Bank of England is part of the globalist conspiracy.....

Do other Christians not find Beeno to be an embarrassment to your beliefs? 

F*ck, he is an embarrassment to any South African. 

He is like Zuma claiming that Africa is bigger than all of the continents in the earth put together. 

SB

I am a plain and at times a poor thinker with my Economics III qualification,   I think as follows:-

Imports     -      341 billion

Exports    -       267 billion

Deficit     -          74 billion

Maybe I am wrong - but would trade with the EU stops altogether and will the EU make more from duties than England would make?   I do not think trade would stop altogether - it may be reduced when the UK enter into trade agreements with countries outside of the EU.

I have seen large industrial areas in Northern France closed totally because of the EU regulations and laws forced onto France.    Remember the EU serve the elite - not the ordinary workers and people from the countries they govern.   

Who will lose money if the EU cash cow for the elite vanishes - not the ordinary residents but the billionaires who do not care a hoot for other people,     

Services are provided  by the UK top the EU,  It is difficult to determine what those services  entail and how delivery takes place.   What are these services and how many workers benefit from them - and can these service3s not continue in future,

A lot is being written about the "services" - but there is very little said about how these services really benefit the broader community of the UK.   

Exports always entail benefits for communities from where exports originate,   Who benefit from the services?       

@Sharkbok, I will search for the one on direct taxation. I have bookmarked it somewhere and will get it ASAP.

EU army:

Merkel joins Macron in calling for EU army to complement NATO

Common Security and Defence Policy

NHS:

By 2023/24 the NHS England budget will increase by £20.5 billion in real terms compared with today. That means it will be £394 million a week higher in real terms.

"Is there anything wrong with having an EU army? Especially given the terrorist attacks across the EU."

They have been denying the plans for it for ages, while planning to start it. Another idea that will be forced onto European countries by the Brussels elite. Having said that, Europe has been protected by NATO for decades. A NATO funded largely by the USA. The USA has been putting more into NATO than all the other NATO allies put together, FFS, the biggest EU economies do not even make their minimum contributions to keep NATO afloat, and now the UK, who together with the USA is one of only five NATO countries pulling their weight, is pulling out of the EU.

If they cannot even pull their weight to keep NATO, who has largely been keeping itself busy with keeping Europe safe, HTF are they going to keep their EU army going.

Can you understand why the EU is so hellbent on spreading project fear even further? They are heavily reliant on the UK.

"What does the NHS budget increase have to do with anything about the EU?"

Uhmmmm. That was one of the lies that the Remain Campaign used to promote project fear. They attacked the Leave Campaign's argument that the EU contributions could be used to fund the NHS.

But nice try Sharkbok. You are getting good at obfuscation. My argument was that you have to look beyond trade with the EU for benefits to leave the EU. You rubbished that  and asked for examples. You then rubbished that as well, asking if there are sources and asked whether it is a "church conspiracy of Beeno".

I gave you the sources and now you suddenly decide that an EU Army is quite cool and the NHS has fokol to do with Brexit. You are a funny guy. 

"Everyone is confused about Brexit except you. "

Nope. Everyone that has looked at the facts and saw the same that I saw agree with me. Others who listen to what is being blasted out without looking at the facts for themselves do not agree with me.You have to look at both sides and consider as much options as possible before deciding. That is why I know that you do not measure the strength of a country's economy by the strength of its currency alone. 

"Beeno would look at this right away and say it is part of the globalist conspiracy. "

And you do not agree that the EU is a globalist idea? If not, then why do Guy Verhoffstadt and Jean Claude Juncker keep on warning, in the EU parliament, against the "dangerous" rise in populism?

The irony of Verhofstadt's speech/rant in the above clip is that he lists all the failures of the EU and then blames Trump and nationalism and populism for it. You cannot make this shit up. 

Dupli cate                   

SB

That story about Services is largely BS,   The EU can recruit English speakers to do their job - but will it work out?   Most countries like the US, China and the rest will still use the English (especially London)  to deal  with financial issues and will not automatically relocate to Germany or France,   I am afraid it is a scare story and not reality which is at play in that case. .  

The EU army is for what?   Despite all the propaganda there is no chance that Russia would attack Western countries in future.   The Ukraine issue is different.  Large areas of Ukraine - a creation of Stalin to weaken the ethnic Ukrainians in the USSR and was not changed to ensure that the interest of  Russians are protected,   Take for example the Crimea.   Since the time of Catherine the Great in the  late 1700's Russians were resettled in the Crimea - while the ethnic Muslim Crimeans were allowed to remain and had fairly good rights from a religious and business perspective.   Stalin saw it differently and send the Muslim Crmieans by force to Siberia  and very few survived to eventually return to the Crimea.   By the 1990's 90% of the Crimea population was Russians.    W hat happened was that Russia effectively claimed back  a territory that should never have been parted from Russia.    

Fact is that Russia is not a danger that the EU countries should be afraid of.   There is virtually no or a very small percentage of Russian speakers left  in even countries like Latvia and Lithuania and unlike the Ukraine their is no need for their protection by the Russians..

There is NATO to protect the countries from any thread by the Russians.   So why the EU army,   Nuts like  Junker and Verhoffstad is in favour of such an army because they fear that nationalism could lead to anti-EU sentiment and even riots and they need the army to keep the population of Europe under control.   Who will be the soldiers in that army?   Recruits from the migrants flooding Europe at present?   I would not trust the bastards for 1 second.  

That is the real fact  of  the situation in Europe at present,                   

The trouble is they campaigned on leave but we're in fact remainders.