No Deal Brexit could reduce UK economy by 25% for the immediate future

Another of Sharks predictions ....one year on. How silly it seems now!

They don't come more ignorant than this Jackass Dr Moz.

Boris explains why he abhors the failing EU. He got a very close look at the EU.

Go to this link:

Boris and EU

"Another of Sharks predictions ....one year on. How silly it seems now!"

A no deal scenario hasn't occurred yet. The UK is currently in the transition period which means while its now out of the EU decision making process its still following all EU rules and regulations up till December 31st 2020.

The return of Stav Anger with the usual blarney. No the UK economy is not going down 25% deal or no deal.

Oh you're still carrying on with the Stav Anger routine aren't you clever.

Let me guess you're basing that economic forecast for Brexit on snow in Chicago being a statistically significant event with a sigma rating of factor 5 bullshit.

No I don't think it will drop by anything like that amount, still the point is we don't know how bad a no deal Brexit could be yet because it hasn't occurred.

Nope I’m basing it on the 1910 to 1940 temperature hockey stick  that blew your argument  out of the water.....and the UK will be just fine, like the temperature.

Mozart

What is funny is that last year we had a very bad situation in the Western Cape - this year the are has cooled down and at the end of April one has to wear warm clothes we normally would use in mid-winter,  Last year for example the water level in the dam which serve the town and the irrigation farms in the area was down to 37% - this year it is 61% even before the start of the main raining season in the winter here.

Last year we did not have the coronavirus situation that ruined the world economy and is now used as a weapon in the USA  against Trump and is now been used by SB to argue as a reason the world  needs a United Nations type of Government to combat viruses originating in China, Silly stuff really - one cannot make shit like that made up,

So - in other words the Chinese leftist communist regime can blackmail the western countries to do what they demand and say yes to everything they want or they release another virus on the world,                 

Duplication

Nope I’m basing it on the 1910 to 1940 temperature hockey stick  that blew your argument  out of the water.....and the UK will be just fine, like the temperature.

Amazing one can delude themselves so much, hard to tell if its indoctrination or just an attempt to protect a rather fragile ego.

You trust the people currently running the UK to handle Brexit and the British economy well given how badly they are handling the Corona virus at the moment?

As for the temperature you've already been exposed as a c harlatan on the topic of global warming so we can safely ignore you opinion on that topic as this point.

Hard to understand when its full of gibberish alright.

“ No I don't think it will drop by anything like that amount, still the point is we don't know how bad a no deal Brexit could be yet because it hasn't occurred.“

Do you realise that, by implication, the above would also mean:

“ Still the point is we don't know how good a no deal Brexit could be yet because it hasn't occurred.“

Asking for a friend. 

@Ceradunce, the headline clearly says immediate future (short term as in months to a year). 

I think most people are expecting the UK to bounce back- but a hard exit with no deals in place will cause short term damage. 

I’m sure it’s hard for you Anger.....no quantitative  training. What are you ....a history teacher,  a Chartered Googler .....hahaha. Chaps who can’t grasp numbers really should avoid them.

“ Posted by: Stavanger1 (321 posts)

@ceradyne

Asking for a friend.“

Aaaaaaaand here we go again. Any links to whatever is produced will immediately be rubbished and yours will be the only ones to be regarded as reputable. Not playing your petulant little game. You’re on your own. 

Stav I am missing rugby and cricket terribly.  But here goes,

I am not in favour of any socialist system - whether it is communism or whether it is less reactionary.    Maybe my problem is with the fact  that I believe Public Servants in the case of socialist systems control economic activities in countries - a field they want to regulate without the necessary expertise to do so,   I speak  here of personal experience of more than 50 years, Perhaps that is why I distrust and dislike systems such as the UN, WHO and even the EU,  

Experience taught me that the bigger the organization is the less efficient they become,  Not even  the most advanced technology eliminates that problem,   The other problem is that the further final authority is removed from the people they have to serve the less effective the service becomes. 

For me the only thing I did during ,my whole life was to look after the interest of and help the less fortunate.  That I was taught by my mother - probably the most humane and caring person I have ever known.   She took particular care of the other races living in the area and she told us to be kind and help whenever we can.  

When I came back to Riversdale in 2015 after an absence of 55 years there were many of the older Coloured people in the area and spoke kindly of her even though she died in 1996,  My parents were held in high esteem by everybody in the area,  

Yep poor young Stav doesn't understand numbers. Wonder what the dope thought of THE WHO 3.4% death rate for the Wuhan Virus. Sucjed it all up like the gullible noony he is. 

I see the polling is saying a majority of Italians want to exit the EU. Bye bye EU if Italy goes. Salvini will be back in power soon. 

How much longer before the whole rotten ediface collapses! 

Many pertinent people say that Britain will thrive outside the EU.  I understand they will not be part of any bailout plan?

Germans getting sick of carrying the loafers to the south. 

I see per the Worldometer England is still doing better that France, Italy, Belgium, Spain. 

Wonder how far they are from herd immunity. 

Sweden almost there now. 

Stav needs to read the posts here and get himself educated. It's easy to see the youngster is a brain washed far left bigot who has no clue whatsoever. Imagine thinking the globalist ruled EU is a success! Or that man made climate change is real. 

Wonder if ou Stav is shocked by fellow far left communist Michael More' s expose of fraudulent Green nonsense. Stav has been lapping it all up. Hahahaha.

 Stav might prove to be as big a buffoon as sharkvirus!  

"Aaaaaaaand here we go again. Any links to whatever is produced will immediately be rubbished and yours will be the only ones to be regarded as reputable. Not playing your petulant little game. You’re on your own."

Not true. In previous discussions on Brexit, you largely avoiding posting up links when asked.

In fairness you embedded a link to a Nick Ferrari interview with the ex-boss of Dover port who said he wasn't that concerned about delays at Dover due to Brexit and disruption would not be that serious. I wouldn't say I was convinced by his arguments for several reasons but he was credible and reputable.

Another time I said something along the lines that a lot of pro Brexits arguments are untrue or made up, like say the EU banning the mailing of smoked kippers or bendy bananas.You linked an article from the Daily Express about German and Irish farmer protesting against the EU. On fact checking it the Irish protests where against the Irish government not against the EU. The German ones were to a certain extent against the EU, they where protesting against Germans environmental laws brought in to avoid EU fines (which also undermines the argument that Germany has too much control of the EU) but what the Express omitted to tell you was there was counter protests in favor of the these laws at the same time the farmers where protesting. The Daily Express is not a credible paper, on that occasion for example they lied about what the Irish farmers were protesting about and posted an imbalanced view of the German protest to make the EU look as bad as possible. Just look at front page on the Daily Express website over the course of a couple of days, every single day there is like a half dozen to a dozen articles attacking the EU and they have been doing it for years, I don't think I've seen a single pro EU article on it.  Does that sound remotely balanced too you?. So yes if your posting anything from the Daily Express I would not consider them a reputable source.

If you could find more people like the ex Dover boss or could link to reports from credible independent financial organizations that show a positive economic outlook for Brexit would do your arguments a world of good. Linking to tabloid trash like the Daily Express, Daily Mail or The Sun or quoting the politicians that pushed Brexit does not.

One final question for you. You said in the past you where in favor of Brexit because you disliked the fact EU citizens get preferential treatment when they move to the UK over people from the Commonwealth.  Can you name or link me to the the EU law that prevents the UK from granting people from the Commonwealth the same freedoms and preference as EU citizens get?  

Beeno have to say on a certain level you fascinate me. How did you end up like this? How do you function day to day? How have you managed not to set yourself on fire or fall down an open manhole by now?

Its like a mentally challenged chimpanzee with anger management issues was given 5 minutes of basic keyboard training, and spent 4 years learning how to copy and paste every crack pot theory in existence and another year on how to mash the cap locks key, then let lose on the internet.

And the fat,Welsh, substance abusing, peeping Tom  appears right on cue. You shall know them by the company they keep.

@Stav. 

As usual, and exactly as I suspected, you go of a lengthy rant. 

I said as expected because we have had many arguments in the past and I know your MO. I’m not even going to go into every one of your “charges” because many of them are plain BS. I will entertains some of the stuff broadly. 

Your usual reaction is to attack ones sources as rubbish. You know it and I know it. An example was the dredging issue. I provided some links and you immediately countered with something in another direction. When I went through your argument and closely examined the information in your supporting link, I found that you addressed a tiny portion of the entire issue. I proceeded to find the entire EU legislation regarding the issue. I discovered that the core of the issue was indeed mostly to be found at the door of the EU. By the time that I have finished doing the research, the entire conversation on the thread has already, and once again as usual, gone into a new direction. I decided to just leave it as I was not interested in hearing another mile long explanation over why the piece of EU legislation, quoted directly from the particular EU  website, was also BS. 

Fact is that you are immune to any critique of the EU as if it is your own little brainchild and you defend them with tooth and nail even through diversion and obfuscation to high heavens. I’m actually tempted to say that you appear to have an abnormal bias towards the EU and an equally abnormal disdain for anything British. 

Your usual return is always generally in the direction of “I take note of what you have said and provided in support, but if you can give me some more from this, that and the other source, I may be interested in reconsidering my position”, which actually translates to no matter what you throw it me, it will be shrugged off as BS. You do seem to have taken a leaf out of the EU manual. That is their MO. “Go back and think some more and then get back to us, but take note, we will not approve of that either”. 

By the way, how is Taoiseach Saint Leo Varadkar doing? Oh wait......

@Stav. Look I’m not really interested in another lengthy back and forth leading nowhere. But I’ll try and respond briefly non the less. 

“ Just because my views are different to yours does not make my post a rant. “

But you seem to have concluded that the fact that mine are different to yours seem to generally make mine bullshit. 

“ ....now can you please link me to the research you did that proved the core of issue was mostly at the EU's door please.  “

Forget it. I’m not interested in rehashing the entire issue. I am satisfied that I had it right and that it corresponds with what was reported in the dodgy tabloid Daily Mail. I’m by no means saying that the DM is the world’s most reliable source but I found what I needed, following their sources. As I said, it was the EU legislation itself together with deliberations on the legislation. If I could find it, I’m sure you should be able to the same with a little effort. 

“  If you could produce more of them to that quality you would be doing well.  “

You don’t think that this may come across as a tad arrogant? Be that as it may, I’m way past caring what you think of the quality of what I produce. 

“ As a person who lives in an EU state“

You do realise that until 30 January I also lived in an EU state and technically still live in an EU state, don’t you? It means that I can also make observations from “inside the EU”.

“  I have disdain for the people who pushed Brexit and the lies they peddled in doing so. “

Yep, couldn’t let that one slip through could you?  The old, “..they were to thick to know what they voted for/ were lied to..” argument. 

Let me ask you this. How many debates on the pros and cons of leaving/remaining have personally watched in the lead-up to the referendum? How many arguments have you listened to and what percentage of those regiments, that you listened to, have you personally fact checked?

“ LOL you have been reading the Daily Express haven't you “ 

There we go again. Another assumption - another balls up. Don’t you learn? Why should I even bother reading the rest of that reply if you start it off from a shallow assumption like that? 

But you seem to have concluded that the fact that mine are different to yours seem to generally make mine bullshit.

Your using terminology like bullshit to make it sound like I'm disparaging you, I'm not. You're entitled to your views as am I. We are both entitled to fact check each other and question the credibility of each others sources.

Forget it. I’m not interested in rehashing the entire issue. I am satisfied that I had it right and that it corresponds with what was reported in the dodgy tabloid Daily Mail. I’m by no means saying that the DM is the world’s most reliable source but I found what I needed, following their sources. As I said, it was the EU legislation itself together with deliberations on the legislation. If I could find it, I’m sure you should be able to the same with a little effort.

Your basically saying I've found the smoking gun but I can't show it to you. Yes the Daily Mail isn't a credible source, but it doesn't mean their always wrong or their sources are wrong. I'll try to find it but I shouldn't have to try to find it as I'm not the one making the claim you are. Can you even point me in the right direction, like what was the gist of the article, where the deliberations on legislation delaying action on flooding or something?

You don’t think that this may come across as a tad arrogant? Be that as it may, I’m way past caring what you think of the quality of what I produce.

I was actually posting that to prove I wasn't just dismissing everything you where saying out of hand. I was acknowledging a point you made was credible and worthy of debate. You have somehow twisted that into a negative on my part?

You do realise that until 30 January I also lived in an EU state and technically still live in an EU state, don’t you? It means that I can also make observations from “inside the EU”.

Then can you cite a way in which the EU has negatively affected you personally. Like a law or legislation that the EU, preferable one where the UK voted against the laws in the EU when they where being passed? Or maybe an example of the EU suppressing the UK media? I've honestly never come across an example of that where I live. But I know some of the benefits, for example my local bus station was built via EU funding. I know I have the right to move, live and work across EU member states etc.

Yep, couldn’t let that one slip through could you?  The old, “..they were to thick to know what they voted for/ were lied to..” argument. 

Let me ask you this. How many debates on the pros and cons of leaving/remaining have personally watched in the lead-up to the referendum? How many arguments have you listened to and what percentage of those regiments, that you listened to, have you personally fact checked?

I never said they where thick. They where manipulated by a long term large scale propaganda campaign run by a large right wing leaning section of the media and various minority but very vocal political parties. The Brexit leaders deliberately avoiding defining what Brexit meant because they all wanted different things and knew the public wouldn't back any one version of Brexit so they just merged all the different kind of Brexit into a vague package they could sell to the general public. Hence the absolute mess of negotiations afterwards. I don't hold Brexit voters to blame or believe they are tick.

I've listened to a lot of Brexit debates but obviously far from all of them. A lot of the claims Brexiteers make are the same claims over and over. So I've fact checked the common Brexit arguments but far from them all, but no one person can fact check everything.

There we go again. Another assumption - another balls up. Don’t you learn? Why should I even bother reading the rest of that reply if you start it off from a shallow assumption like that?

Okay fair enough it wasn't the Daily Express that you picked up on the hostility to Leo Varadkar. So where is it coming from?. The Brexit supporting papers strongly dislike Leo and were only too happy to revel in his election defeat and claimed it was his comeuppance for his Brexit stance. Or have you just decided to randomly ask hows he's doing completely out of context of Brexit.

The ironic thing is that of most of the political parties in Ireland his party would likely be the one closest to your political viewpoint.

Look Stav, I’m not even remotely interested in taking this argument any further. 

I will, however, give you one piece of information that I remembered about when I did the research regarding the dredging issue. I have saved a link to this particular one but I must have deleted my other notes with links when I decided that I was going to kick the argument. TBH, I actually think that, in the process of deleting the notes, I missed this one. I just cannot remember. And, frankly, I don’t care. I’m not interested in going through the whole thing to find the piece that was important. Feel free to do it if you like.

PS. I am including it because, by the look of it, you seem to suggest that I may have been bullshitting when I said that I found stuff to support my argument.

Impact of European Environmental Law on Dredging

Oh piss off. If there is one thing you cannot accuse me of, it would be not providing sources for what I say. Try again. 

Look Stav, I’m not even remotely interested in taking this argument any further. 

I will, however, give you one piece of information that I remembered about when I did the research regarding the dredging issue. I have saved a link to this particular one but I must have deleted my other notes with links when I decided that I was going to kick the argument. TBH, I actually think that, in the process of deleting the notes, I missed this one. I just cannot remember. And, frankly, I don’t care. I’m not interested in going through the whole thing to find the piece that was important. Feel free to do it if you like.

PS. I am including it because, by the look of it, you seem to suggest that I may have been bullshitting when I said that I found stuff to support my argument.

Ceradunce throwing in the towel.

No mas!

LMAO!

No...that’s not throwing in the towel. Throwing in the towel is leaving the Board with your tail between your legs....and then coming back as Koosie.

Look what the cat dragged in.