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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  So America bombed a Girls school killing 150+ in Iran?

So America bombed a Girls school killing 150+ in Iran?

Started by sharkbok310 REPLIES2,206 VIEWS· 07 Mar 2026, 15:55
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RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
09 Mar 2026, 22:24
#121
09 Mar 2026, 22:24#121

Looks like we're leaning towards "regime change" as the reason then.


So what about Bozo's very first reaction . . . "he was going to hit me first"?


Is there a single Trumpanzee among you who will admit Bozo was lying when he said that?


Just one?


Just as he was lying about "obliterating" Iran's nuclear capabilty in 2025.


How is it you Trumpanzees can't see through this bullshit?

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
09 Mar 2026, 22:39
#122
09 Mar 2026, 22:39#122

Okay so I ask Chat what a tight spend only in Europe number would be:



? $20 billion per year

This is the portion of U.S. defense spending that:

  1. physically occurs in Europe
  2. supports the NATO posture there
  3. arguably reduces how much Europe must spend itself.


So we reduce the $100 billion to $20 billion….which reduces the gift to $ 7.5 trillion. But if we use actual returns rather than real returns we get this:


Final Result

? $187 trillion

If a $5.9 B payment in 1945 (growing with inflation to about $100 B today) had instead been invested in the U.S. stock market each year through 2025, the accumulated value would be roughly:

? $180–190 trillion


So using actual returns we get $180 trillion at the low end…..divide that by 5 to use only US money spent in Europe and we get….$36 trillion.


The gift is $36 trillion using stricter expenditure definitions.


But of course that doesn’t really give the whole picture does it? With the NATO alliance and common interest both parties benefit from some part of any dollar spent. And here’s what’s been spent since the war:


This means:

  1. If NATO security benefits are shared,
  2. the extra defense burden carried by the U.S. relative to Europe over the past 80 years is roughly:

$20–25 trillion (2025 dollars)


A vast number…and while this has been spent in US interest, Europe has always been far more at risk. Take that differential in spending and invest it in the US economy and you get multiples of $35 trillion.

…..


So no, even though you reach out to Chat to make all your arguments. We come back to the same place. The US has funded European security with every dollar spent. And that expenditure vastly outweighed European expenditure.


If Europe paid its fair share, displacing US payments….the minimum benefit is $35 trillion and all the security benefits for the West stay intact.


Perhaps you should try to think for yourself, you are asking Chat the wrong questions. Garbage in… garbage out



RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
09 Mar 2026, 23:00
#123
09 Mar 2026, 23:00#123

Mozart, forget Chat for a sec and tell me why you think your country is at war?


Not what's being told or said, what you really think.

RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
09 Mar 2026, 23:05
#124
09 Mar 2026, 23:05#124

Ou Maaik, why do you think the US is at war?


Let me guess . . . it's all Biden's fault, right? Spare me that and tell if you think the US is waging war because they want regime change, because there is an imminent threat or because Bozo thinks it will help him win the mid-terms?


Or just plain oil . . . again.

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
09 Mar 2026, 23:33
#125
09 Mar 2026, 23:33#125

Holy shit...people scalped the bajeezus out of the oil price over the last 24 hours.


At 4am it was up to $115...it's now just under 20 hours later and it's down to $90.


Tell you what Stavie, you should put your money where your mouth is because if you're predicting $150, then a nice little 5x leverage trade from here could see you cash in quite nicely.


I'm thinking it's going all the way back down to $80.





RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
09 Mar 2026, 23:37
#126
09 Mar 2026, 23:37#126

Just gone 94.7.


It's going to rocket.

SH
sharkbokCaptain20,097 posts
09 Mar 2026, 23:42
#127
09 Mar 2026, 23:42#127

Most Europeans want America's army to leave Europe. We dont need them.

Europe has been in its most peaceful period in history - at least until Putin invaded Ukraine.


America has bases all over the world. This is not some charity service. It gives America a strategic position all around the world. For example, America attacked Iran from bases all over the Middle East.

America is also the largest arms dealer in the world, and they make a lot of money on the back of military bases in various countries.


Under Biden, America initially committed resources towards Ukraine

Under Trump, that ended very abruptly. Europe now purchases weapons from America for Ukraine.


Trump supports Putin over Ukraine- and repeatedly tries to get them to agree to Putin's terms (e.g. surrender the Donbas - with no security guarantee.


Trump/America need to step out of the European negotiations. We will deal with Putin.

As it stands now, Europe will soon have its own Army. Trillions have been invested.

European countries are now getting their own nukes with their own independent charters from NATO or even the EU.

European countries (and others like Canada) are now cancelling their negotiations/contracts for American weapons, preferring self-sufficiency. Soon, we will ask America to remove its nukes from Europe.


ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
09 Mar 2026, 23:44
#128
09 Mar 2026, 23:44#128

Okay so I ask Chat what a tight spend only in Europe number would be:


FFS man, can you ever stop trying to divert. Whinge all you want about Europe, the US-Israeli attacks on Iran have nothing to do with Europe expect how knock on effects are gonna screw Europe.


The US elected Trump. I said back at the time he won the election, the US was gonna have to own the consequences of electing him, because the American public knew what he was from the first term, all the flaws, all the stupidity, all the incompetence, all the horrendous personality traits, all the vulgarity, but they didn't care what the consequences would be for the other half of America and the rest of world by electing arguably the singularly most unsuitable man on the planet to the office of US President and making him the most powerful individual on the planet . They just thought they Trump would make them better off financially and nothing else mattered.


So now here with are with Trump taking the US to war with Iran for no clear reason and no clear objective. Well if the US breaks the middle east, they can own this mess. I suppose the Trump supporters don't care about the damage this is doing to the US reputation, or how anyone could place any trust in them when they are such an erratic destabilizing force around the world, If the US was just a middle ranking country in terms of power and wasn't a lynchpin of the world economy were everyone had to trade with them and was trying to act like they are present the rest of the world would be treating it like North Korea, an absolutely basket case of a country that is dangerous and would need to be isolated.

.



ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
09 Mar 2026, 23:54
#129
09 Mar 2026, 23:54#129

Tell you what Stavie, you should put your money where your mouth is because if you're predicting $150, then a nice little 5x leverage trade from here could see you cash in quite nicely.


Well it's not my prediction it, that's what some experts are predicting if the war drags on till the end of the month.


If Trump stops the war in the next few days then I'm sure oil won't got to $150. But it will remain at an elevated price for some time.


However if Trump stops the war in the next few days and declares a 'very complete' victory, what's he achieved cause it's as sure shit won't be regime change.






RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:02
#130
10 Mar 2026, 00:02#130

Operation Epic Fail.

SH
sharkbokCaptain20,097 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:03
#131
10 Mar 2026, 00:03#131

America used to be a Democratic government where decisions were spread out over multiple people to gain consensus. This helped ensure the correct course of action was taken. Now this bumbling idiot has appointed loyalists like Putin, so Trump gets to control every decision.


Now Trump is panicking as he has seen his war against Iran has screwed up the whole world economy.

He never anticipated that energy would increase so much, and so quickly. A bumbling idiot.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:06
#132
10 Mar 2026, 00:06#132

The air and missile attacks wil stop when the A yatollah Regime negotiate to stop terrorism worldwide, stop therr efforts to get nuclear bombs and stop their primative regime attack on the people of Iran.

SH
sharkbokCaptain20,097 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:12
#133
10 Mar 2026, 00:12#133

America's two special military operation goals have been achieved:


  1. Regime change
  2. Nuclear agreement to stop Iran creating nuclear weapons


What actually happened:


  1. Bomb civilian areas, including destroying over 150 school kids and their teachers.
  2. Crash the world economy.
  3. Leave Iran with no nuclear agreement.
  4. A failed regime change. Killed the Supreme leader who was 87 years old. His son replaced him, who is by all accounts worse
  5. America looks like Nazi's to the rest of the world


Now more than ever Iran will be motivated to get nukes. Ditto the rest of the world.

Trump wont invade North Korea or Russia because they have nukes.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:14
#134
10 Mar 2026, 00:14#134


America used to be a Democratic government where decisions were spread out over multiple people to gain consensus. This helped ensure the correct course of action was taken. Now this bumbling idiot has appointed loyalists like Putin, so Trump gets to control every decision.


Total BS fronm a supreme idiot,


Trump knowds more about th e impac of esrare has on the economy, He is not paniocking about anything .

RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:15
#135
10 Mar 2026, 00:15#135

I'm watching this clown talking now . . . Putin apparently told him he's never seen anything like this before . . . no-one has.


Now he's on about rigged elections again.

RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:25
#136
10 Mar 2026, 00:25#136

Now he's saying Operation Epic Fail was to remove their nuclear capability.


Didn't he "obliterate" that capability in 2025? Didn't he boast about that already?


Again, was he lying then or is he lying now?


He thinks the US is helping everyone. Russia, China, everyone. It's incredible. No-one's ever seen anything like ot before.



RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:27
#137
10 Mar 2026, 00:27#137

All the deceased American troops parents told him to "finish the job" . . . every one of them.

RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:30
#138
10 Mar 2026, 00:30#138

Let's not forget the guy in charge of Operation Epic Fail is not actually a military man at all . . . he's a Fox News co-host.

MP
MpowerPro5,061 posts
10 Mar 2026, 00:57
#139
10 Mar 2026, 00:57#139

What is the likelihood of this happening:


"Retired Lt. Col. Tony Aguilar is basically warning that the current U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran could spiral into something much bigger, potentially even involving tactical nuclear strikes.


He’s highlighting vulnerabilities like the limits of missile defenses and exposed carriers, while also pointing out the economic impact—oil above $100 a barrel and rising gas prices.


On the other hand, Pentagon officials are downplaying the nuclear risk, insisting strikes remain conventional, and many experts see Aguilar’s warnings as speculative.


It’s the kind of scenario where both perspectives have weight: Aguilar is cautious, emphasizing worst-case escalation, while officials want to calm markets and avoid panic.


The real concern is that in high-tension conflicts, miscalculations can have unexpected consequences."

MP
MpowerPro5,061 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:12
#140
10 Mar 2026, 01:12#140

The right plane for nuclear deployment is already there:


Current U.S. bomber deployments in the Iran war

• The B?52 Stratofortress heavy bomber has been sent and used to strike targets in Iran as part of the U.S. air campaign. It’s one of the long?range bombers hitting missile infrastructure and military installations. 


• Along with B?52s, the U.S. Air Force is using B?1B Lancer bombers and B?2 Spirit stealth bombers in strike missions against Iranian targets. 

defensenews.com +1

Defense News +1

About the B?52 and nuclear weapons


• The B?52 is technically nuclear?capable in U.S. service (meaning in other contexts it could carry nuclear bombs), but in this conflict it’s being used with conventional weapons such as long?range cruise missiles and bombs, not nuclear ones. 


• It’s a very old but still active bomber that can carry a very large load of munitions over long distances. 

BO
bobbok...Captain10,129 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:14
#141
10 Mar 2026, 01:14#141

,

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:18
#142
10 Mar 2026, 01:18#142

Not necessarily regime change, but getting whoever is in charge toe the line or face the consequences... Venezuela wasn't a regime change...just a change of leader.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:20
#143
10 Mar 2026, 01:20#143

Epic Fail….on the first day of the conflict Iran launched 350 ballistic missiles, yesterday they launched 15. On the second day of the conflict they launched 540 drone attacks, yesterday they launched 12.


The Iranian sponsoring of terrorism, murdering of their own people, attempts to get a nuclear weapon, role in the unprovoked attack on Israel by sponsoring Hamas……these are the things a functional UN should have addressed. But there is no such entity so it falls to the American tax payer,


That’s why the US is at war…we are the only credible participant. Polls say we don’t want to be. So most politicians wouldn’t have touched it. But Trump for whatever set of reasons, is determined to fix these regional powder kegs. It’s a short term political loser.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:28
#144
10 Mar 2026, 01:28#144

FFS man, can you ever stop trying to divert. Whinge all you want about Europe, the US-Israeli attacks on Iran have nothing to do with Europe expect how knock on effects are gonna screw Europe


Europe is doing a great job of screwing itself….and hey, you don’t need oil, wind and solar will solve it all….relax.


But it’s nice Europe is finally increasing its military budget, $36 Trillion from the US tax payer is enough.

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:30
#145
10 Mar 2026, 01:30#145

The school was a tragedy Blob...epic failure of either intel or execution, but it pales in comparison to what the Iranians have done over the years...kill thousands of their innocents this year alone ... they've held the world hostage for too long...end this once and for all... interesting how people will rather side with the Iranians and other tyrannical countries than concede that not every thing Trump is bad... it's not about Iran oil, it's about a stable open global oil market... sanctions on these rogue oil producers hurt the West more than it does these monsters...Ou Bob ...the Iranians are tjommies with our Vlad from Russia and are actively supporting the Russian effort in Ukraine...this war is just as much about putting pressure on Russia as anything else...part of the whole problem...

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:34
#146
10 Mar 2026, 01:34#146

"Let's not forget the guy in charge of Operation Epic Fail is not actually a military man at all . . . he's a Fox News co-host."


Lol!

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:41
#147
10 Mar 2026, 01:41#147

"Born

Peter Brian Hegseth

June 6, 1980 (age 45)

Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S.

Party

Republican

Spouses

Meredith Schwarz

?

?(m. 2004; div. 2009)?

Samantha Deering

?

?(m. 2010; div. 2017)?

Jennifer Rauchet ?(m. 2019)?

Children

4[2]

Education

Princeton University (BA)

Harvard University (MPP)

Occupation

Government officialtelevision personality

Signature

Cursive signature in ink

Military service

Branch/service

United States Army

Army National Guard

Years of service

2003–2006

2010–2014

2019–2021

Rank

Major

Unit

Minnesota Army National Guard

District of Columbia Army National Guard

Battles/wars

Iraq War

War in Afghanistan

Awards

Bronze Star (2)

Joint Service Commendation Medal

Army Commendation Medal (2)

Combat Infantryman Badge


And degrees from Princeton and Harvard, but you focus on the few years at Fox...very balanced view Rooi.



Having said all that, I don't like him much...his infidelity and irresponsible drinking habits points to weakness....but you can't say he's not a military man.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:45
#148
10 Mar 2026, 01:45#148

Let's not forget the guy in charge of Operation Epic Fail is not actually a military man at all . . . he's a Fox News co-host.



Operation Epic Fury is a U.S.-led military campaign directed by President Donald J. Trump and executed by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), commanded by Admiral Brad Cooper

. Launched on February 28, 2026, the operation targets Iranian military, drone, and nuclear infrastructure. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is also involved in directing the operation's goals.


Cooper has fought in the Gulf, Afghanistan and Kosovo wars and is a Harvard graduate.


I assume you mean Hegseth is not a military man. He did a stint at Fox, but only after serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is an argument that he was unqualified. I actually made that argument on here and I’m still not convinced, but the man in charge Cooper is eminently qualified.


MP
MpowerPro5,061 posts
10 Mar 2026, 01:55
#149
10 Mar 2026, 01:55#149

" Blob...epic failure of either intel or execution, but it pales in comparison to what the Iranians have done over the years...kill thousands of their innocents this year alone ... they've held the world hostage for too long...end this once and for all... interesting how people will rather side with the Iranians and other tyrannical countries than concede that not every thing Trump is bad... it's not about Iran oil, it's about a stable open global oil market... sanctions on these rogue oil producers hurt the West more than it does these monsters...Ou Bob "


Db...???

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
10 Mar 2026, 03:06
#150
10 Mar 2026, 03:06#150

Europe is doing a great job of screwing itself….and hey, you don’t need oil, wind and solar will solve it all….relax.


I love the sheer stupidity of this argument. Hey Europe you know that energy commodity that has a tendency to spike massively in price every few years due to geopolitical events you can't foresee or control that in turn causes the continent of Europe to have major economic problems...you guys need to invest in it more heavily.


Absolute moron on cocaine logic.


Speaking of which.


But it’s nice Europe is finally increasing its military budget, $36 Trillion from the US tax payer is enough.





SH
sharkbokCaptain20,097 posts
10 Mar 2026, 05:09
#151
10 Mar 2026, 05:09#151

The sequel to finding Nemo.... It is now finding ButtPlug somewhere in the crowd. He has gone to save the Iranians, a one man strike force to find every wife beater.


https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DaUG_R6-On4


They are celebrating the son taking over the Supreme Leadership.

Like Vegas, "What happens in Iran, stays in Iran" (hopefully).


Many, many Iranians support a religious despot. Sure the poll ratings go down when 30,000 people are killed, but overall if their was a Democratic election the majority would vote for him as supreme leader.


Look at Hamas, they were Democratically elected in Palestine.

DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
10 Mar 2026, 05:58
#152
10 Mar 2026, 05:58#152

interesting how people will rather side with the Iranians and other tyrannical countries than concede that not every thing Trump is bad

No-one is siding with the tyrannical Iranian regime......the issue as far as I'm concerned is how Trump suddenly ditched diplomatic efforts in favour of bombing Iran which leads me to believe that there was no sincerity in his diplomatic efforts.

He'd struck a deal with Israel, going to war was a given.

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
10 Mar 2026, 06:55
#153
10 Mar 2026, 06:55#153

"Trump suddenly ditched diplomatic efforts in favour of bombing Iran which leads me to believe that there was no sincerity in his diplomatic efforts."


He gave them more than enough time...it was going nowhere....they are masters of moving goal posts and buying more time...they had 45 years...same old same old...he warned the "Supreme Leader" months ago, maybe the next one takes the warning more seriously....notice how the Russian cohorts and allies is being taken out one at a time ...after Iran, Cuba, the ANC, Russia and the China will be next...China will be last... Russia in particular will be a dead duck as soon as the oil market has been stablized and Brent goes back to below $50...that will hit a dent in Russia's piggy bank as well as putting a stick in China's cheap energy competitive free ride....Cuba, SA and probably Brazil will get stung only to emphasize the message to Russia and China... they've been exploiting the effect of sanctions on oil for too long...this is gonna hit them hard economically....good.

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
10 Mar 2026, 07:37
#154
10 Mar 2026, 07:37#154

I see Iran rejected an offer for unlimited nuclear fuel...wonder why?

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
10 Mar 2026, 07:39
#155
10 Mar 2026, 07:39#155

"Db...???"


What was unclear?

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
10 Mar 2026, 07:40
#156
10 Mar 2026, 07:40#156

"Many, many Iranians support a religious despot. Sure the poll ratings go down when 30,000 people are killed, but overall if their was a Democratic election the majority would vote for him as supreme leader."


And pigs fly...

DA
Devil's AdvocatePro7,008 posts
10 Mar 2026, 08:17
#157
10 Mar 2026, 08:17#157

We don't actually know if Iran would make the decision to build a nuclear bomb, and if the did the west would probably know about it before it's complete and could take steps to intervene then


Of course, we have absolutely no idea if Iran would ever build a nuclear bomb, it's just pure speculation.


After all, in 2018, Mossad agents literally walked into a Tehran warehouse like it was a library self-checkout, and cracked dozens of safes and walked out with over 100 000 documents of proof, including memos, videos and other files.


These files detailed their AMAD Project, complete with nuclear warhead designs, production plans, high explosive testing setups like the giant metal chamber at Parchin..... and also proof that they were actively pursuing atomic weapons until 2003 .... with all this knowledge professionally preserved and very carefully archived afterwards.


But sure.....Iran might never make "the decision" .....to build a nuclear weapon....... they just meticulously archived blueprints, videos and memos and files.... for a weapons program that they swore to world for decades... had never ever existed.


And the West would never 100% know the full extent of Iran's nuclear ambitions or progress, especially when you are relying on remote cameras to tell you what soil samples are being collected when nuclear inspections are being held....... I mean, how incredibly stupid and naive can you be, to trust someone who has just actively and continuously lied to the entire world about not following any nuclear program, and then telling them that you will take them by their word by monitoring their nuclear inspections via remote cameras...... fucking insane is what it is.


Good luck making an "honourable" deal with a country as dishonest as Iran.

RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
10 Mar 2026, 11:05
#158
10 Mar 2026, 11:05#158

"Good luck making an "honourable" deal with a country as dishonest as Iran."


Agree.


I also agree that you could just as easily say "Good luck making an "honourable" deal with a country as dishonest as the USA."

MP
MpowerPro5,061 posts
10 Mar 2026, 12:35
#159
10 Mar 2026, 12:35#159

Wow:)


https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVsDw9kjjbb/?igsh=MWJtcGtzOG1sMzU0MQ==

SH
sharkbokCaptain20,097 posts
10 Mar 2026, 12:40
#160
10 Mar 2026, 12:40#160

Fack checking DA's comments. The evidence appears to suggest Iran stopped most of its nuclear weapons activity around 2003, and that it was not continuing during the Obama led deal



Parts of your comment are broadly aligned with what open sources say, and parts are overstated.


1. Did Iran have a nuclear weapons program?

Yes. Evidence from the IAEA and the 2018 archive supports that Iran ran a structured weapons program (often called the AMAD Project) mainly before 2003, and preserved that know?how.

Key points:

  1. The stolen archive in 2018 contained tens of thousands of pages and files about warhead designs, fitting nuclear devices to missiles, test setups (including at Parchin), and other weaponization work.
  2. The IAEA’s long investigation concluded there had been “a variety of activities” relevant to developing a nuclear device up to the early 2000s, with some activities continuing until about 2009, but no ongoing structured weapons program after that.?

So your description of the archive and of Iran having lied for years about never pursuing weapons is grounded in documented evidence, though the details (dates, extent) are more nuanced than “until 2003 and then nothing.”


2. Do we know if Iran has decided to build a bomb now?

On this point, your opening statement is essentially correct and matches current Western intelligence: we do not know Iran has decided to build a weapon.

  1. U.S. and allied assessments still say Iran has not made a definitive political decision to cross the line and actually manufacture a bomb, even though it has the technical capacity and enriched uranium needed to do so relatively quickly.
  2. This judgment is consistent with older U.S. National Intelligence Estimates that said Iran halted its organized weapons program in 2003, while keeping options open.?

So saying “we have absolutely no idea if Iran would ever build a nuclear bomb” is too strong – experts think Iran is keeping the option open – but we indeed lack firm evidence of a final decision to build and deploy weapons.


3. Would “the West probably know” and be able to intervene?


Here the situation is mixed. It is not as binary as “of course they would know” or “they’d be totally in the dark.”

What supports “we’d likely know”:

  1. A bomb requires not just higher enrichment but weaponization steps (converting material into cores, testing detonators and explosive lenses, integrating with delivery systems) that produce signatures intelligence services and the IAEA try to detect.
  2. Past activity (Fordow, Parchin, covert facilities) has been exposed via satellites, human sources, and IAEA investigations, even when Iran tried to hide it.

What undermines “we’d know in time and could easily intervene”:

  1. Iran has already restricted IAEA access and monitoring; the IAEA chief has said openly that the agency cannot guarantee the program is purely peaceful because Iran is not fully cooperating and man?made uranium traces were found at undeclared sites.?
  2. Intelligence is fallible; U.S. and Israeli estimates about how “close” Iran is have varied and often erred on the side of assuming Iran is nearer to a bomb than later evidence showed.?
  3. A crash, clandestine weaponization effort in parallel with a declared civilian program would be much harder to detect quickly, especially if Iran expelled inspectors in a crisis.

So: the claim “the West would probably know something was happening” is plausible, but “would know enough, early enough, to reliably stop it” is not assured and is treated as a serious risk by most governments.


4. How “naive” is it to rely on inspections and deals?

Your skepticism about trusting a state that has previously lied is understandable, but arms control is designed precisely for adversaries you do not trust.

  1. The 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), before the U.S. withdrawal, significantly rolled back Iran’s enrichment and imposed intensive verification, including continuous surveillance at key sites, and experts broadly judged it was working at that time to lengthen Iran’s “breakout time.”??
  2. The archive shows Iran preserved weapons knowledge and hid documents from inspectors even after the deal, which is exactly why many experts said the deal had to be combined with very intrusive inspections and other pressure, not blind trust.

So it is naive to rely on Iran’s word; it is not naive per se to use verification?heavy agreements as a way to constrain and monitor a hostile state you assume will cheat if it can.??


5. Bottom line on your fact claims

  1. “Iran secretly pursued a nuclear weapons program and archived the plans”: Supported by the IAEA’s findings and the Mossad archive.
  2. “They were actively pursuing weapons until 2003 and then archived everything”: Essentially right on the 2003 halt for the organized program, but evidence shows some related activities continued until around 2009.
  3. “We have absolutely no idea whether they’d decide to build a bomb”: Overstated; we know they have not yet made that decision, but are closer in capability and keeping the option open.
  4. “The West would never know the full extent of their ambitions or progress”: It will never know everything, but it does have significant insight, though with real blind spots and uncertainty; neither total ignorance nor total visibility is accurate.
  5. “Any ‘honourable’ deal is impossible because Iran is dishonest”: That is a political and moral judgment, not a factual claim; factually, deals have constrained Iran’s program when in force but have not removed the underlying knowledge or intent to keep options open.??

If you want, I can walk through what “breakout,” “sneak?out,” and “weaponization” mean in practical terms for Iran’s capabilities, and what kinds of signals would likely show up if Tehran did move toward an actual bomb.


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